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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Poisson model favours Real Madrid (56%) — form and H2H data both point in the same direction as Real Madrid face Real Sociedad.

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Fixture Analysis

It is a La Liga clash, Regular Season - 24 as Real Madrid welcome Real Sociedad to Estadio Santiago Bernabéu. Kick-off is set for Saturday 14 February 2026 at 20:00 UTC.

Recent Form

Across all La Liga games this season, Real Madrid have gone 8W 1D 1L from 10 outings — a 2.50 PPG return. Last five: W W W W W. They are averaging 2.10 goals per game — a high-scoring output that makes them a genuine attacking threat in any fixture. Defensively, conceding just 0.60 per game is an exceptional defensive record — one of the tightest in the division. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is a standout defensive return — they are keeping their net clean in more than half their matches. This season is still relatively young for Real Madrid, so this record blends games from this season and last.

Real Madrid's form when playing at home: 9W 0D 1L across 10 games at Estadio Santiago Bernabéu this term (2.70 PPG). They are averaging 2.40 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground.

Real Sociedad — All Games: 4W 3D 3L from 10 La Liga fixtures this season — 1.50 PPG. Last five: W W W D W. They are scoring at 1.60 per game and conceding 1.30. Both teams have scored in 90% of their matches this season — one of the stronger BTTS rates in the division, making Yes a well-evidenced play. This season is still relatively young for Real Sociedad, so this record blends games from this season and last.

When travelling in La Liga this season, Real Sociedad have posted 2W 4D 4L from 10 away outings — 1.00 PPG. Away from home they average 1.10 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 80% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture. Their away PPG of 1.00 is notably below their overall 1.50 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.

Real Madrid carry the stronger recent momentum — 1.00 PPG ahead of their opponents on 2.50 vs 1.50. The form data is a point in their favour, and where the price allows, it is the cleaner directional bet.

Head to Head

The historical ledger comes down firmly in favour of Real Madrid: 7 wins from 9 previous clashes against 1 for Real Sociedad, with 1 draws across those contests.

The 9 previous meetings have averaged 2.2 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 13 Sep 2025, ended 2–1 with Real Madrid winning.

The historical record gives Real Madrid a meaningful edge here — 7 wins from 9 meetings is the kind of ledger that should not be discounted when the form picture is inconclusive. Even away from home, the visitors have struggled to impose themselves in this fixture.

In-Play Data

Real Madrid trading profile (61 games, 30 at home): they score before half-time in 70% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 95% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 74% of those occasions; they lead at the break 51% of the time; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 60% of games (home games); they keep a clean sheet 43% of the time.

Real Sociedad trading profile (61 games, 30 at away): they score before half-time in 77% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 76% of the time; BTTS occurs in 43% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 40% of games (away games); they fail to score in 36% of games.

BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Real Madrid 52% versus Real Sociedad 48%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Real Madrid 57% | Real Sociedad 48%).

Poisson Model

The Poisson distribution model projects Real Madrid 1.76 xG and Real Sociedad 0.90 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Real Madrid attack 1.293 / defence 0.800 | Real Sociedad attack 1.004 / defence 0.918. League average goals — home 1.484 / away 1.124. Real Madrid carry an above-average attack strength of 1.293 — their λ of 1.76 reflects genuine attacking quality above the league norm. Data: 61 Real Madrid games / 61 Real Sociedad games used (CurrentSeason).

Result probabilities: Real Madrid 56% | Draw 26% | Real Sociedad 18%. Fair-value odds: Real Madrid 1.79 | Draw 3.85 | Real Sociedad 5.56. The model has a clear lean to Real Madrid (56%) — a 38pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.

Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 50% | BTTS probability 51% | Total xG 2.66. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 50%/50% — the total xG of 2.66 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 51% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.

Our Verdict

Poisson rates Real Madrid as the most likely outcome at 56% — clear model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 26% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.

On the goals line, Poisson's 2.66 combined xG gives a 50% probability to Under 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration.

Poisson assigns a 51% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Real Madrid 50% | Real Sociedad 80% BTTS from recent games.

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