🎯

Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

📋

Poisson model rates Sevilla at 43%, yet other data sources diverge — this Sevilla vs Alaves fixture contains genuine analytical tension.

✍️ Match Preview

Analysis

Alaves make the trip to Estadio Ramón Sánchez Pizjuán to face Sevilla in La Liga, Regular Season - 24. The match kicks off on Saturday 14 February 2026 at 17:30 UTC.

Form & Momentum

Sevilla have collected 0.90 PPG across 10 La Liga outings this season: 2W 3D 5L. Last five: L D W L D. They are averaging 1.10 goals per game and conceding 1.70 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. This season is still relatively young for Sevilla, so this record blends games from this season and last.

Sevilla at Estadio Ramón Sánchez Pizjuán this season: 4W 1D 5L from 10 home games — 1.30 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.40 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game.

Alaves's overall La Liga record this term: 3W 1D 6L from 10 games (1.00 PPG). Last five: L L W W L. Their scoring rate of 0.90 per game is modest, conceding 1.70 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Alaves, so this record blends games from this season and last.

Alaves's form when playing away from home: 2W 1D 7L across 10 road games this term (0.70 PPG). Away from home they average 0.60 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game.

A near-identical PPG reading — 0.90 for Sevilla, 1.00 for Alaves — means the form record is uninstructive on result selection. The goals and market sections will carry greater evidential weight.

H2H History

The head-to-head record is closely matched — Sevilla lead 1W to 3W over the last 7 encounters, with 3 draws, though neither side has established a commanding advantage.

Attacking output has been a hallmark of this fixture. At 3.4 goals per game across 7 meetings, the Over 2.5 has a statistically grounded case from the head-to-head record alone. The most recent clash, on 20 Sep 2025, ended 2–1 with Sevilla winning.

With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.4 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.

Trading Data

Sevilla goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (61 games, 30 at home): they score before half-time in 67% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 90% of the time; BTTS occurs in 53% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 40% of games (home games).

Alaves goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (61 games, 30 at away): they score before half-time in 67% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 88% of the time; BTTS occurs in 53% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (away games); they fail to score in 36% of games.

BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Sevilla 57% versus Alaves 49%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Sevilla 49% | Alaves 39%).

Poisson Model

The Poisson distribution model projects Sevilla 1.34 xG and Alaves 1.03 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Sevilla attack 0.886 / defence 1.147 | Alaves attack 0.796 / defence 1.018. League average goals — home 1.486 / away 1.125. Data: 61 Sevilla games / 61 Alaves games used (CurrentSeason).

Result probabilities: Sevilla 43% | Draw 30% | Alaves 27%. Fair-value odds: Sevilla 2.33 | Draw 3.33 | Alaves 3.70. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 30% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.

Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 42% | BTTS probability 49% | Total xG 2.37. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 58% — total xG of 2.37 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 49% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.

Final Verdict

Poisson rates Sevilla as the most likely outcome at 43% — marginal model lean. Draw probability of 30% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Sevilla if the outright odds are short.

The Poisson model projects 2.37 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 42% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence — though H2H averaging only 3.4 goals per meeting points in the other direction.

Poisson assigns a 49% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Sevilla 50% | Alaves 40% BTTS from recent games.

🔮 Your Prediction

Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.

💡 Key Insights