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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Poisson model projects a closely fought contest — draw probability sits at 37% as Oviedo take on Athletic Club.

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Fixture Analysis

It is a La Liga clash, Regular Season - 24 as Oviedo welcome Athletic Club to Estadio Nuevo Carlos Tartiere. Kick-off is set for Sunday 15 February 2026 at 13:00 UTC.

Form Analysis

Looking at all fixtures this season, Oviedo stand at 1W 5D 4L from 10 La Liga matches — 0.80 PPG. Last five: D D L L W. They are averaging 0.50 goals per game and conceding 1.40 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their matches, indicating a tendency toward clean sheets or low-scoring outcomes. This season is still relatively young for Oviedo, so this record blends games from this season and last.

At home at Estadio Nuevo Carlos Tartiere, Oviedo have gone 2W 5D 3L this season (10 games, 1.10 PPG). At home they are averaging 0.40 goals scored and 0.80 conceded per game. 6 clean sheets from 10 home games (60%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Estadio Nuevo Carlos Tartiere. At home, both teams have scored in only 20% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle.

Athletic Club — All Games: 3W 2D 5L from 10 La Liga fixtures this season — 1.10 PPG. Last five: D L L D W. Their scoring rate of 1.30 per game is modest, conceding 1.60 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Athletic Club, so this record blends games from this season and last.

When travelling in La Liga this season, Athletic Club have posted 1W 2D 7L from 10 away outings — 0.50 PPG. Away from home they average 0.80 goals scored and 1.80 conceded per game. Their away PPG of 0.50 is notably below their overall 1.10 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.

The form comparison is too close to call — 0.80 PPG (Oviedo) versus 1.10 (Athletic Club). When the figures are this level, no pick can be reliably derived from recent results alone.

Head to Head

There is little to separate the sides historically. From 1 previous meetings, Oviedo have won 0, Athletic Club 1, with 0 draws — a balanced ledger that offers no obvious directional steer on its own.

The last 1 meetings have been tight affairs, averaging just 1.0 goals per game. That low-scoring pattern is a meaningful historical input for the Under 2.5 market. The most recent clash, on 9 Nov 2025, ended 0–1 with Athletic Club winning.

With a balanced win record and just 1.0 goals per game historically, the H2H points toward a tight, low-scoring contest. Under 2.5 goals has the strongest statistical grounding from the fixture history regardless of which side wins.

In-Play Data

Oviedo trading profile (22 games, 11 at home): they score before half-time in 36% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 56% of the time; BTTS occurs in 18% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 18% of games (home games); they fail to score in 64% of games.

Athletic Club trading profile (22 games, 11 at away): they score before half-time in 54% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 89% of the time; BTTS occurs in 46% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 46% of games (away games); they fail to score in 36% of games.

BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Oviedo 27% versus Athletic Club 46%; no strong lean in either direction. Under 2.5 goals has backing from the in-play data — both teams register low Over 2.5 rates (Oviedo 32% | Athletic Club 41%).

Poisson Model

The Poisson distribution model projects Oviedo 0.85 xG and Athletic Club 0.89 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Oviedo attack 0.532 / defence 0.875 | Athletic Club attack 0.903 / defence 1.063. League average goals — home 1.500 / away 1.125. Oviedo's attack strength of 0.532 is below the league average — the 0.85 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Data: 22 Oviedo games / 61 Athletic Club games used (CurrentSeason).

Result probabilities: Oviedo 30% | Draw 37% | Athletic Club 33%. Fair-value odds: Oviedo 3.33 | Draw 2.70 | Athletic Club 3.03. The draw (37%) is the Poisson-preferred outcome — neither side is more likely to win than to draw, making draw-inclusive markets the most model-aligned approach.

Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 25% | BTTS probability 35% | Total xG 1.74. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 75% probability — total xG of 1.74 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match based on both sides' defensive quality. BTTS No has firm model support at 65% — Oviedo's lower xG of 0.85 creates a meaningful probability of a scoring blank, which suppresses the BTTS Yes probability to 35%.

Summary & Verdict

The Poisson model's preferred outcome is the draw at 37% — neither side is more likely to win than to draw. Draw-inclusive markets are the most model-aligned approach. Home win at 30% and away win at 33% are close enough that backing either outright carries significant draw exposure.

Poisson projects 1.74 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 25% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by form averaging 1.9 goals per game.

The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 35%. Form rates corroborate: Oviedo 20% | Athletic Club 40% BTTS from recent games.

The outsider holds a 30% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.

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