Getafe 2-1 Villarreal – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model favours Villarreal (43%) — recent form and the head-to-head data both point the same way as Getafe face Villarreal.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
Getafe welcome Villarreal to Coliseum in La Liga (matchday 24). Kick-off is Saturday 14 February 2026 at 15:15 UK time.
Form Analysis
Looking at their last 10 matches, Getafe stand at 2W 3D 5L — 0.90 PPG. Last five: L L D D W. They are averaging 0.60 goals per game and conceding 1.20 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings (30%). Both teams have scored in just 30% of their matches, indicating a tendency toward clean sheets or low-scoring outcomes.
In front of their own supporters, Getafe have posted 2W 3D 5L from their last 10 home games — 0.90 PPG. At home they are averaging 0.60 goals scored and 0.90 conceded per game.
Across their last 10 games, Villarreal have recorded 6W 1D 3L — 1.90 PPG. Last five: W L L D W. They are scoring at 1.90 per game and conceding 1.40. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings (10%). Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.
When travelling, Villarreal have posted 5W 2D 3L from their last 10 away outings — 1.70 PPG. Away from home they average 1.60 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
The form data does not support a straightforward home bias here. Villarreal are 1.00 PPG ahead (1.90 vs 0.90), making them the form-guided selection despite the trip.
H2H Record
Villarreal have tended to come out on top in this fixture, winning 4 of the 8 H2H matches we hold against 0 for Getafe.
The 8 H2H matches in our data averaged 1.9 goals per game — a neutral rate that gives no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent of those, on 6 Dec 2025, ended Getafe 0–2 Villarreal — a Villarreal win.
Villarreal have the better head-to-head record despite being the visitors — 4 wins from 8 H2H matches. Home advantage alone is not a reason to dismiss that.
In-Play Data
Getafe trading profile (last 60 games, 29 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 48% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 85% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; of the 8 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 25%; BTTS occurs in 45% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 24% of games (home games); they fail to score in 43% of games.
Villarreal trading profile (last 60 games, 29 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 76% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 92% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; of the 14 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 36%; BTTS occurs in 62% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 55% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 37%.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Getafe 38% versus Villarreal 62%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Getafe 33% | Villarreal 62%). There is an in-play dynamic worth noting: Getafe surrender their half-time lead 25% of the time, while Villarreal have come from behind at the break to draw or win in 36% of cases — a combination that makes laying the hosts at HT a potential angle.
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Getafe 0.86 xG and Villarreal 1.23 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Getafe attack 0.610 / defence 0.886 | Villarreal attack 1.230 / defence 0.952. League average goals — home 1.477 / away 1.126. Getafe's attack rating of 0.610 is below the league average, which holds their xG down at 0.86. Villarreal have an above-average attack rating of 1.230, which lifts their away xG to 1.23. Data: built from Getafe's last 61 games and Villarreal's last 60.
Result probabilities: Getafe 24% | Draw 32% | Villarreal 43%. Fair-value odds: Getafe 4.10 | Draw 3.10 | Villarreal 2.31. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome reaches 45%. The draw at 32% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 35% | BTTS Yes probability 42% | Total xG 2.08. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 65% probability — total xG of 2.08 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match. BTTS No at 58% is only a slight lean — the model gives both sides a fair chance of scoring, so No isn't a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Villarreal are the pick at 43% — marginal model lean. Recent form and the head-to-head data both align with the Poisson read — multi-source corroboration increases confidence in this selection. With a 32% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Villarreal offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
Poisson projects 2.08 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 65% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by the H2H data averaging 1.9 goals per game across 8 H2H matches.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 58%. Form rates are neutral — both teams scored in: Getafe 40% (last 10 home games) | Villarreal 60% (last 10 away games).
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Getafe vs Villarreal | Competition: La Liga, matchday 24 | Venue: Coliseum • Kick-off: Saturday 14 February 2026 at 15:15 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Getafe 24% | Draw 32% | Villarreal 43% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 35% (Under 65%) | BTTS Yes 42% (No 58%) | xG Getafe 0.86 / Villarreal 1.23 • Poisson strength factors: Getafe attack 0.610 / def 0.886 | Villarreal attack 1.230 / def 0.952 | league avg home 1.477 / away 1.126 • Poisson stance: Villarreal (43%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
0.86
Getafe xG
Expected Goals
1.23
Villarreal xG
42%
BTTS
63%
Over 1.5
35%
Over 2.5
16%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Getafe vs Villarreal FAQs
What time does Getafe vs Villarreal kick off?
Getafe vs Villarreal kicked off at 15:15 UK time on Saturday 14 February 2026 at Coliseum.
What was the final score in Getafe vs Villarreal?
Getafe 2 - 1 Villarreal.
Where is Getafe vs Villarreal being played?
The match is being played at Coliseum.
What competition is Getafe vs Villarreal part of?
Getafe vs Villarreal is a La Liga fixture (matchday 24) (Spain).
Who is favourite to win Getafe vs Villarreal?
Our statistical model gives Getafe a 24% chance of winning, Villarreal a 43% chance, and a 32% chance of a draw — making Villarreal the favourite.
Will both teams score in Getafe vs Villarreal?
Our model estimates a 42% probability that both Getafe and Villarreal will score, so it leans towards BTTS No (58%).
Will Getafe vs Villarreal have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 35%, so it leans towards under 2.5 goals (65%).
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Getafe's attacking strength (0.61x league average) is weighed against Villarreal's defensive record (0.95x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 0.86. The same calculation in reverse, Villarreal's attack versus Getafe's defence, projects 1.23 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from Getafe's last 61 games and Villarreal's last 60 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 14.8%. Close behind: 0-0 (14.1%), 0-1 (13.6%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 42% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Villarreal Win
24%
4.10
32%
3.10
43%
2.31
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 1
15.3%
Away win
Most likely
1 – 1
13.1%
Draw
0 – 0
12.4%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
0.86
Getafe xG
Total xG
2.08
1.23
Villarreal xG
4.10
24%
Home win
3.10
32%
Draw
2.31
43%
Away win
Goals Markets
62%
Over 1.5
1.61
38%
Under 1.5
2.63
35%
Over 2.5
2.86
65%
Under 2.5
1.54
16%
Over 3.5
6.25
84%
Under 3.5
1.19
6%
Over 4.5
16.67
94%
Under 4.5
1.06
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
42%
BTTS Yes
2.37
58%
BTTS No
1.73
Clean Sheet
29%
3.41
42%
2.36
Win to Nil
7%
13.97
18%
5.44
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 12.4 | 15.3 | 9.4 | 3.8 | 1.2 | 0.3 |
| 1 | 10.7 | 13.1 | 8.0 | 3.3 | 1.0 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 4.6 | 5.6 | 3.4 | 1.4 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 1.3 | 1.6 | 1.0 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 0.3 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | – | 0.1 | – | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Getafe vs Villarreal Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for Getafe vs Villarreal?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.8%.
How many goals are Getafe and Villarreal expected to score?
The model projects 0.86 expected goals for Getafe and 1.23 for Villarreal, a combined total of 2.08.
How confident is the prediction model for Getafe vs Villarreal?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 43%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Getafe's recent record stands at 18W 13D 29L from 60 games, a 1.12 PPG return, with L-L-D-D-W in the last five.
Villarreal, meanwhile, have gone 34W 13D 13L across 60 games — 1.92 PPG, with W-L-L-D-W in their last five.
The points-per-game comparison favours Villarreal by 0.80 — a real, if not enormous, edge over Getafe heading into this one.
Venue Form
At home specifically, Getafe have managed 7W 9D 13L from their last 29 home games — 1.03 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Villarreal's away record stands at 16W 5D 8L across their last 29 away games, a 1.83 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Villarreal come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Getafe are averaging 0.85 goals scored and 1.08 conceded per game recently; Villarreal are on 1.90 scored and 1.25 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Villarreal in 62%.
Last 60 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Getafe
Blended
Villarreal
Blended
Getafe (Home) vs Villarreal (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
Getafe
Blended
Villarreal
Blended
❓ Getafe vs Villarreal Form FAQs
What form are Getafe and Villarreal in coming into this match?
Getafe have gone 18W 13D 29L in their last 60 games (1.12 PPG), while Villarreal have gone 34W 13D 13L in their last 60 (1.92 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Getafe at home or Villarreal away?
Villarreal's away record (1.83 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Getafe at home: 1.03 PPG; Villarreal away: 1.83 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
This section is based on the 10 H2H matches we hold for this pairing, spanning roughly 4 years from April 2022. All of them came in La Liga. The most recent was as recently as 8 November 2026, so it is a fresh reference point.
Streaks & Records
Getafe's record when hosting Villarreal specifically: 1W 2D 2L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
1
Getafe
4
Draws
5
Villarreal
Recent Meetings
❓ Getafe vs Villarreal H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between Getafe and Villarreal?
Across the 10 head-to-head matches in our data, Getafe have won 1, Villarreal have won 5, and 4 have been drawn.
When did Getafe and Villarreal last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 8 November 2026: Villarreal 2-0 Getafe.
Who has won more matches between Getafe and Villarreal?
Villarreal have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from the 10 head-to-head matches in our data.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Getafe see a goal before the break in 48% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 29% of those situations.
Villarreal are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 76% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 31% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 38% of those situations.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Getafe 45%, Villarreal 62% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 24% (Getafe) and 55% (Villarreal).
On the defensive side: Getafe have failed to score in 38% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Getafe home games / Villarreal away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Getafe vs Villarreal Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in Getafe and Villarreal matches?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 45% of Getafe's recent matches and 62% of Villarreal's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Are Getafe and Villarreal matches usually high-scoring?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 24% of Getafe's recent games and 55% of Villarreal's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Getafe and Villarreal matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 48% of Getafe's recent matches and 76% of Villarreal's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as Getafe defy the odds to beat Villarreal 2-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Getafe beat Villarreal 2-1 at Coliseum, Regular Season - 24, in the La Liga. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Getafe 0.86 xG and Villarreal 1.23 xG, a combined 2.08. The scoreboard read 2-1 for 3 actual goals. Getafe beat their projection by 1.1 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Getafe attack 0.61 / defence 0.89 against Villarreal attack 1.23 / defence 0.95, drawn from 61/60 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Getafe 24% | Draw 32% | Villarreal 43%, with Villarreal to win its most likely call at 43%. Instead the game produced a Getafe win, an outcome the model had rated at just 24% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 35%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 63% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 42% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 48% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Getafe 33%, Villarreal 62%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 50%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Getafe's trading profile (60 games, 29 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 38% of their matches — today it did.
Villarreal's trading profile (60 games, 29 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 62% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
On form, Villarreal arrived the stronger side — 1.92 PPG against 1.12. Form was overturned, with Getafe winning despite arriving in poorer recent shape. Getafe (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 0.79 average — above their attacking norm.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.
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