Alaves 0-2 Getafe – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Alaves at 48%, yet other data sources diverge — this Alaves vs Getafe fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
Getafe make the trip to Estadio Mendizorrotza to face Alaves in La Liga, Regular Season - 23. The match kicks off on Sunday 8 February 2026 at 13:00 UTC.
Current Form
Alaves's overall La Liga record this term: 3W 1D 6L from 10 games (1.00 PPG). Last five: D L L W W. They are averaging 0.90 goals per game and conceding 1.60 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Alaves, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Alaves's home record at Estadio Mendizorrotza: 4W 3D 3L from 10 La Liga appearances (1.50 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.20 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture. Their home PPG of 1.50 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.00 — Alaves are significantly better at Estadio Mendizorrotza than their overall form suggests.
Getafe have collected 0.60 PPG across 10 La Liga outings this season: 1W 3D 6L. Last five: D L L D D. Their scoring rate of 0.40 per game is modest, conceding 1.30 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their games, reflecting a regular tendency to keep or record clean sheets. This season is still relatively young for Getafe, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Getafe's form when playing away from home: 2W 2D 6L across 10 road games this term (0.80 PPG). Away from home they average 0.60 goals scored and 1.80 conceded per game.
Both sides are running at similar form levels — 1.00 PPG for Alaves against 0.60 for Getafe. There is no clear form edge to exploit here; other signals need to take the lead.
H2H History
Form and model data should carry more weight here — the historical record is too balanced to provide a directional steer. From 7 meetings: Alaves 1W, Getafe 3W, 3D.
The 7 previous meetings have averaged 1.9 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 24 Sep 2025, ended 1–1 with a draw.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
Trading & In-Play
Alaves — key trading statistics (60 games, 30 at home): they score before half-time in 57% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 87% of the time; BTTS occurs in 47% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 30% of games (home games); they fail to score in 35% of games.
Getafe — key trading statistics (60 games, 30 at away): they score before half-time in 70% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 84% of the time; BTTS occurs in 37% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 43% of games (away games); they fail to score in 43% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Alaves 50% versus Getafe 40%; no strong lean in either direction. Under 2.5 goals has backing from the in-play data — both teams register low Over 2.5 rates (Alaves 40% | Getafe 33%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Alaves 1.35 xG and Getafe 0.81 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Alaves attack 0.874 / defence 0.936 | Getafe attack 0.776 / defence 1.053. League average goals — home 1.470 / away 1.110. Data: 60 Alaves games / 60 Getafe games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Alaves 48% | Draw 31% | Getafe 21%. Fair-value odds: Alaves 2.08 | Draw 3.23 | Getafe 4.76. Alaves hold a narrow Poisson edge at 48% — the draw (31%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 37% | BTTS probability 43% | Total xG 2.16. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 63% — total xG of 2.16 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 43% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, Alaves are the pick at 48% — moderate model lean. Draw probability of 31% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Alaves if the outright odds are short.
The Poisson model projects 2.16 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 37% — reasonable confidence, supported by H2H averaging 1.9 goals per meeting.
Poisson assigns a 43% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates are neutral: Alaves 70% | Getafe 40%.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Alaves vs Getafe | Competition: La Liga, Regular Season - 23 | Venue: Estadio Mendizorrotza • Kick-off: Sunday 8 Feb 2026, 13:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Alaves 48% | Draw 31% | Getafe 21% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 37% | BTTS 43% | xG Alaves 1.35 / Getafe 0.81 • Poisson strength factors: Alaves attack 0.874 / def 0.936 | Getafe attack 0.776 / def 1.053 | league avg home 1.470 / away 1.110 • Poisson stance: Alaves (48%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.35
Alaves xG
Expected Goals
0.81
Getafe xG
43%
BTTS
65%
Over 1.5
37%
Over 2.5
17%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Alaves vs Getafe kick off?
Alaves vs Getafe kicked off at 13:00 on Sunday 8 February 2026 at Estadio Mendizorrotza.
What was the final score in Alaves vs Getafe?
Alaves 0 - 2 Getafe.
Where is Alaves vs Getafe being played?
The match is being played at Estadio Mendizorrotza.
What competition is Alaves vs Getafe part of?
Alaves vs Getafe is a Regular Season - 23 fixture in the La Liga (Spain).
Who is favourite to win Alaves vs Getafe?
Our statistical model gives Alaves a 48% chance of winning, Getafe a 21% chance, and a 31% chance of a draw — making Alaves the favourite.
Will both teams score in Alaves vs Getafe?
Our model estimates a 43% probability that both Alaves and Getafe will score (BTTS).
Will Alaves vs Getafe have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 37%.
What is the head-to-head record between Alaves and Getafe?
Record (7 meetings): Alaves 1W | Draws 3 | Getafe 3W.
What form are Alaves and Getafe in?
Alaves (all comps): 3W-1D-6L in 10 | 1.00 PPG | GF 0.90 / GA 1.60 | L5 D-L-L-W-W. Getafe (all comps): 1W-3D-6L in 10 | 0.60 PPG | GF 0.40 / GA 1.30 | L5 D-L-L-D-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Working from Alaves's attack rating (0.87) and Getafe's defence rating (1.05), the model arrives at 1.35 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — Getafe's attack (0.78x) against Alaves's defence (0.94x) — and the away total comes out at 0.81.
These ratings are built from 60/60 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 14.2%. Close behind: 1-0 (14.0%), 0-0 (13.2%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 41% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Alaves Win
48%
2.08
31%
3.22
21%
4.81
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
15.6%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
12.6%
Draw
0 – 0
11.5%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.35
Alaves xG
Total xG
2.16
0.81
Getafe xG
2.08
48%
Home win
3.22
31%
Draw
4.81
21%
Away win
Goals Markets
64%
Over 1.5
1.56
36%
Under 1.5
2.78
37%
Over 2.5
2.70
63%
Under 2.5
1.59
17%
Over 3.5
5.88
83%
Under 3.5
1.20
7%
Over 4.5
14.29
93%
Under 4.5
1.08
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
43%
BTTS Yes
2.35
57%
BTTS No
1.74
Clean Sheet
45%
2.24
26%
3.87
Win to Nil
21%
4.65
5%
18.59
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 11.5 | 9.3 | 3.8 | 1.0 | 0.2 | – |
| 1 | 15.6 | 12.6 | 5.1 | 1.4 | 0.3 | – |
| 2 | 10.6 | 8.5 | 3.4 | 0.9 | 0.2 | – |
| 3 | 4.8 | 3.8 | 1.6 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 1.6 | 1.3 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.4 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Alaves vs Getafe?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.2%.
How many goals are Alaves and Getafe expected to score?
The model projects 1.35 expected goals for Alaves and 0.81 for Getafe, a combined total of 2.16.
How confident is the prediction model for Alaves vs Getafe?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 48%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Across their last 60 outings, Alaves have picked up 1.12 PPG on a 17W 16D 27L record — D-L-L-W-W across the most recent five. The sample for Alaves is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Getafe's form line: 17W 14D 29L from 60 games, 1.08 PPG, last five D-L-L-D-D. The sample for Getafe is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.12 PPG for Alaves against 1.08 for Getafe. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
How They Fare by Venue
On home soil, Alaves have posted 1.40 PPG from 30 outings (11W 9D 10L).
On the road, Getafe have gone 10W 4D 16L from 30 away games — 1.13 PPG when travelling.
Attack vs Defence
Alaves are averaging 0.97 goals scored and 1.25 conceded per game recently; Getafe are on 0.83 scored and 1.10 conceded.
Last 60 Results — La Liga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Alaves
Blended
Getafe
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Alaves and Getafe in coming into this match?
Alaves have gone 17W 16D 27L in their last 60 games (1.12 PPG), while Getafe have gone 17W 14D 29L in their last 60 (1.08 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Alaves at home or Getafe away?
Alaves's home record (1.40 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Alaves at home: 1.40 PPG; Getafe away: 1.13 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 9 times that we have on record, stretching back to December 2021 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 4 years. Every recorded meeting has come in La Liga. The two were last together as recently as 15 August 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Notable Numbers
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Alaves won 3-0 on 15 Aug 2026, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Alaves have gone 2W 1D 2L from 5 meetings on their own ground against Getafe — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 9 Meetings
2
Alaves
3
Draws
4
Getafe
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Alaves and Getafe?
From 9 meetings on record, Alaves have won 2, Getafe have won 4, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Alaves and Getafe last play each other?
They last met on 15 August 2026, when Alaves 3-0 Getafe.
Who has won more matches between Alaves and Getafe?
Getafe have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 9 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Alaves see a goal before the break in 57% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 27% of the time.
Getafe are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 70% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 13% of those situations.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Alaves 47%, Getafe 37% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 30% (Alaves) and 43% (Getafe).
On the defensive side: Alaves have failed to score in 33% of games; Getafe in 47%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Alaves home games / Getafe away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Alaves play Getafe?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 47% of Alaves's recent matches and 37% of Getafe's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Alaves vs Getafe usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 30% of Alaves's recent games and 43% of Getafe's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Alaves and Getafe tend to score early?
Alaves have had a goal before half-time in 57% of their recent matches, Getafe in 70% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Getafe cruise to a comfortable 0-2 victory over Alaves.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Getafe beat Alaves 0-2 at Estadio Mendizorrotza, Regular Season - 23, in the La Liga. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Alaves 1.35 xG and Getafe 0.81 xG, a combined 2.16. The scoreboard read 0-2 for 2 actual goals. Alaves fell 1.4 short of their projected output. Getafe outscored their 0.81 projection by 1.2. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Alaves attack 0.87 / defence 0.94 against Getafe attack 0.78 / defence 1.05, drawn from 60/60 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Alaves 48% | Draw 31% | Getafe 21%, with Alaves to win its most likely call at 48%. Instead the game produced a Getafe win, an outcome the model had rated at just 21% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 37%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 65% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 43% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 37% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Alaves 40%, Getafe 33%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 45%, which matched the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Alaves's trading profile (60 games, 30 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 35% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Getafe's trading profile (60 games, 30 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 40% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Alaves 1.12 PPG, Getafe 1.08 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Getafe win broke the near-deadlock. Alaves (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 0.93 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 2 against a 0.93 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Getafe (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 0.90 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 0 against a 1.27 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.