Elche 0-0 Osasuna – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Elche at 39%, yet in-form Osasuna provide a compelling counter-argument — this Elche vs Osasuna fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
Elche and Osasuna meet at Estadio Manuel Martínez Valero in La Liga (matchday 24). This fixture gets under way on Friday 13 February 2026 at 20:00 UK time.
Form
Elche (all games): 2W 2D 6L across their last 10 — 0.80 PPG. Last five: D D L L L. Offensively they are averaging 1.60 goals per game, with 1.90 conceded. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings (20%). Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.
Elche's form when playing at home: 4W 4D 2L across their last 10 home games (1.60 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.70 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from their last 10 home games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture. Their home PPG of 1.60 is noticeably stronger than their overall 0.80 — Elche are significantly better at home than their overall form suggests.
Osasuna's record over their last 10 games: 5W 3D 2L (1.80 PPG). Last five: L W W D W. They are scoring at 1.80 per game and conceding 1.20. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings (20%). Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.
Osasuna's form when playing away from home: 2W 2D 6L across their last 10 road games (0.80 PPG). Away from home they average 0.80 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game. Their away PPG of 0.80 is notably below their overall 1.80 — form away from home has been a clear weakness recently.
The travelling side arrive in better shape. Osasuna are 1.00 PPG clear of Elche over their recent games (1.80 vs 0.80). Backing the visitors outright or on Draw No Bet are both valid approaches where the price allows.
H2H History
Neither side has dominated the 5 H2H matches in our data: 0 wins for Elche, 1 for Osasuna and 4 draws — leaving the H2H largely neutral.
The 5 H2H matches in our data averaged 2.2 goals per game — a neutral rate that gives no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent of those, on 25 Sep 2025, ended Elche 1–1 Osasuna — a draw.
The head-to-head data offers no strong steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the model and current market pricing should carry more weight for this fixture.
Trading Data
Elche goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (last 23 games, 12 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 67% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 88% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 62% of those occasions; of the 5 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 40%; of the 7 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 43%; BTTS occurs in 58% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 58% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 48%.
Osasuna goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (last 23 games, 12 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 42% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 88% of the time; they lead at the break 48% of the time; of the 11 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 54%; BTTS occurs in 33% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 33% of games (away games); they fail to score in 35% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Elche 70% versus Osasuna 48%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Elche 56% | Osasuna 44%). Note also that Osasuna surrender HT leads in 54% of cases while Elche recover from half-time deficits to draw or win 43% of the time — a dynamic that could influence in-play positioning.
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Elche 1.37 xG and Osasuna 1.25 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Elche attack 1.057 / defence 1.165 | Osasuna attack 0.950 / defence 0.878. League average goals — home 1.478 / away 1.129. Data: built from Elche's last 23 games and Osasuna's last 61.
Result probabilities: Elche 39% | Draw 28% | Osasuna 33%. Fair-value odds: Elche 2.59 | Draw 3.53 | Osasuna 3.03. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome reaches 45%. The draw at 28% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 49% | BTTS Yes probability 54% | Total xG 2.62. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 49%/51% — the total xG of 2.62 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS Yes at 54% is only a slight lean — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates Elche as the most likely outcome at 39% — marginal model lean. Note a divergence: in-form Osasuna (1.80 PPG) cuts against the Poisson lean — the model adjusts for opposition strength, which raw form results do not. Draw probability of 28% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Elche if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 33% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 2.62 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 51% — a Poisson-only call with no corroboration from form or H2H.
Poisson assigns a 54% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates are neutral — both teams scored in: Elche 60% (last 10 home games) | Osasuna 40% (last 10 away games).
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Elche vs Osasuna | Competition: La Liga, matchday 24 | Venue: Estadio Manuel Martínez Valero • Kick-off: Friday 13 February 2026 at 20:00 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Elche 39% | Draw 28% | Osasuna 33% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 49% (Under 51%) | BTTS Yes 54% (No 46%) | xG Elche 1.37 / Osasuna 1.25 • Poisson strength factors: Elche attack 1.057 / def 1.165 | Osasuna attack 0.950 / def 0.878 | league avg home 1.478 / away 1.129 • Poisson stance: Elche (39%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.37
Elche xG
Expected Goals
1.25
Osasuna xG
54%
BTTS
75%
Over 1.5
49%
Over 2.5
27%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Elche vs Osasuna FAQs
What time does Elche vs Osasuna kick off?
Elche vs Osasuna kicked off at 20:00 UK time on Friday 13 February 2026 at Estadio Manuel Martínez Valero.
What was the final score in Elche vs Osasuna?
Elche 0 - 0 Osasuna.
Where is Elche vs Osasuna being played?
The match is being played at Estadio Manuel Martínez Valero.
What competition is Elche vs Osasuna part of?
Elche vs Osasuna is a La Liga fixture (matchday 24) (Spain).
Who is favourite to win Elche vs Osasuna?
Our statistical model gives Elche a 39% chance of winning, Osasuna a 33% chance, and a 28% chance of a draw — making Elche the favourite.
Will both teams score in Elche vs Osasuna?
Our model estimates a 54% probability that both Elche and Osasuna will score, so it leans towards BTTS Yes.
Will Elche vs Osasuna have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 49%, so it leans towards under 2.5 goals (51%).
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Elche's attacking strength (1.06x league average) is weighed against Osasuna's defensive record (0.88x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.37. Flip it around — Osasuna's attack (0.95x) against Elche's defence (1.17x) — and the away total comes out at 1.25.
These ratings are built from Elche's last 23 games and Osasuna's last 61 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 14.1%. Close behind: 0-0 (8.9%), 2-1 (8.5%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 32% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Elche Win
39%
2.59
28%
3.53
33%
3.03
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.5%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
10.0%
Home win
0 – 1
9.1%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.37
Elche xG
Total xG
2.62
1.25
Osasuna xG
2.59
39%
Home win
3.53
28%
Draw
3.03
33%
Away win
Goals Markets
74%
Over 1.5
1.35
26%
Under 1.5
3.85
49%
Over 2.5
2.04
51%
Under 2.5
1.96
27%
Over 3.5
3.70
73%
Under 3.5
1.37
13%
Over 4.5
7.69
87%
Under 4.5
1.15
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
54%
BTTS Yes
1.84
46%
BTTS No
2.19
Clean Sheet
29%
3.49
25%
3.94
Win to Nil
11%
9.02
8%
11.94
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7.3 | 9.1 | 5.7 | 2.4 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 10.0 | 12.5 | 7.8 | 3.2 | 1.0 | 0.3 |
| 2 | 6.8 | 8.5 | 5.3 | 2.2 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 3.1 | 3.9 | 2.4 | 1.0 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.1 | 1.3 | 0.8 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.3 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Elche vs Osasuna Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for Elche vs Osasuna?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.1%.
How many goals are Elche and Osasuna expected to score?
The model projects 1.37 expected goals for Elche and 1.25 for Osasuna, a combined total of 2.62.
How confident is the prediction model for Elche vs Osasuna?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 39%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Elche come into this having played 23 games, going 5W 9D 9L for 1.04 points per game. Their last five reads D-D-L-L-L.
On the other side, Osasuna sit at 1.26 PPG from 23 outings (8W 5D 10L), a run that reads L-W-W-D-W across their last five.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.04 PPG for Elche against 1.26 for Osasuna. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
How They Fare by Venue
Elche's home form reads 5W 5D 2L across their last 12 home games, a 1.67 PPG return. That's noticeably better than their 1.04 PPG overall — Elche are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
Away from home, Osasuna have taken 0.67 points per game from their last 12 away games (2W 2D 8L). That's a step down from their 1.26 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of Osasuna's recent record.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Elche come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Attack vs Defence
Elche are averaging 1.35 goals scored and 1.52 conceded per game recently; Osasuna are on 1.22 scored and 1.22 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Elche have seen both teams score in 70% of their recent games.
Last 23 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Elche
Blended
Osasuna
Blended
Elche (Home) vs Osasuna (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
Elche
Blended
Osasuna
Blended
❓ Elche vs Osasuna Form FAQs
What form are Elche and Osasuna in coming into this match?
Elche have gone 5W 9D 9L in their last 23 games (1.04 PPG), while Osasuna have gone 8W 5D 10L in their last 23 (1.26 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Elche at home or Osasuna away?
Elche's home record (1.67 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Elche at home: 1.67 PPG; Osasuna away: 0.67 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
Our data holds 6 H2H matches between Elche and Osasuna, the earliest from November 2021. All of them came in La Liga. The most recent was on 13 February 2026, roughly 9 months ago.
Notable Numbers
The most recent 2 H2H matches in our data have all been drawn — an unusually settled run for this fixture.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Elche have gone 0W 3D 0L from the 3 H2H matches in our data played on their own ground against Osasuna — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 6 Meetings
0
Elche
5
Draws
1
Osasuna
Recent Meetings
❓ Elche vs Osasuna H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between Elche and Osasuna?
Across the 6 head-to-head matches in our data, Elche have won 0, Osasuna have won 1, and 5 have been drawn.
When did Elche and Osasuna last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 13 February 2026: Elche 0-0 Osasuna.
Who has won more matches between Elche and Osasuna?
Osasuna have the better head-to-head record, with 1 wins from the 6 head-to-head matches in our data.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Elche are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 67% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 33% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 25% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 33% of those situations.
Osasuna see a goal before the break in 42% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 25% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 33% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Elche 58%, Osasuna 33% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 58% (Elche) and 33% (Osasuna).
On the defensive side: Elche keep a clean sheet in 42% of their matches; Osasuna in 67%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Elche home games / Osasuna away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Elche vs Osasuna Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in Elche and Osasuna matches?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 58% of Elche's recent matches and 33% of Osasuna's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Are Elche and Osasuna matches usually high-scoring?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 58% of Elche's recent games and 33% of Osasuna's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Elche and Osasuna matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 67% of Elche's recent matches and 42% of Osasuna's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Stalemate at Elche's ground as both sides cancel each other out in a goalless draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Elche and Osasuna finished level at 0-0 at Estadio Manuel Martínez Valero, Regular Season - 24, in the La Liga. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Elche 1.37 xG and Osasuna 1.25 xG, a combined 2.62. The scoreboard read 0-0 for 0 actual goals. Elche fell 1.4 short of their projected output. Osasuna landed 1.2 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Elche attack 1.06 / defence 1.17 against Osasuna attack 0.95 / defence 0.88, drawn from 23/61 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Elche 39% | Draw 28% | Osasuna 33%, with Elche to win its most likely call at 39%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 28%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 49%. The game delivered 0, so it stayed under — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 75% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 54% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 50% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Elche 56%, Osasuna 44%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 59%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Elche's trading profile (23 games, 12 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 70% of their matches — today it did not.
Osasuna's trading profile (23 games, 12 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 48% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 35% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Elche 1.04 PPG, Osasuna 1.26 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing. Elche (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.67 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.08 average — tighter than their form line. Osasuna (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.25 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.
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