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Poisson model rates Celta Vigo at 50%, yet other data sources diverge — this Celta Vigo vs Osasuna fixture contains genuine analytical tension.

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Analysis & Preview

A La Liga encounter, Regular Season - 23 sees Osasuna travel to Estadio Abanca Balaídos to take on Celta Vigo. The game is scheduled for Friday 6 February 2026, 20:00 UTC.

Form Analysis

Looking at all fixtures this season, Celta Vigo stand at 6W 2D 2L from 10 La Liga matches — 2.00 PPG. Last five: W W W L D. They are averaging 1.40 goals per game and conceding 0.50 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. Defensively, conceding just 0.50 per game is an exceptional defensive record — one of the tightest in the division. 7 clean sheets from 10 games (70%) is a standout defensive return — they are keeping their net clean in more than half their matches. Both teams have scored in only 20% of their games — a low BTTS rate that suggests clean sheets are a regular occurrence. This season is still relatively young for Celta Vigo, so this record blends games from this season and last.

In front of their own supporters this season, Celta Vigo have posted 3W 5D 2L at Estadio Abanca Balaídos — 1.40 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.60 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture. Somewhat surprisingly, their home PPG of 1.40 lags behind their overall 2.00 — the home advantage has not translated into superior results at Estadio Abanca Balaídos this season.

Osasuna — All Games: 4W 3D 3L from 10 La Liga fixtures this season — 1.50 PPG. Last five: D L W W D. They are scoring at 1.70 per game and conceding 1.40. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Osasuna, so this record blends games from this season and last.

Osasuna away from home this season: 1W 2D 7L from 10 away games — 0.50 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 0.60 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel. Their away PPG of 0.50 is notably below their overall 1.50 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.

Celta Vigo carry the stronger recent momentum — 0.50 PPG ahead of their opponents on 2.00 vs 1.50. The form data is a point in their favour, and where the price allows, it is the cleaner directional bet.

H2H

The rivalry is an even one: 4 wins apiece for Celta Vigo, 3 for Osasuna and 2 shared spoils from 9 past contests. Neither side holds a meaningful historical edge.

The 9 previous meetings have averaged 2.3 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 26 Oct 2025, ended 3–2 with Celta Vigo winning.

The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.

In-Play Profile

Celta Vigo in-play tendencies (60 games, 30 at home): they score before half-time in 77% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 88% of the time; BTTS occurs in 63% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 47% of games (home games).

Osasuna in-play tendencies (60 games, 30 at away): they score before half-time in 40% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 80% of the time; BTTS occurs in 43% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 30% of games (away games).

From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Celta Vigo 65% and Osasuna 57% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Celta Vigo 52% | Osasuna 43%).

Poisson Model

The Poisson distribution model projects Celta Vigo 1.54 xG and Osasuna 0.92 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Celta Vigo attack 1.147 / defence 0.961 | Osasuna attack 0.864 / defence 0.914. League average goals — home 1.466 / away 1.108. Data: 60 Celta Vigo games / 60 Osasuna games used (CurrentSeason).

Result probabilities: Celta Vigo 50% | Draw 29% | Osasuna 21%. Fair-value odds: Celta Vigo 2.00 | Draw 3.45 | Osasuna 4.76. Celta Vigo hold a narrow Poisson edge at 50% — the draw (29%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.

Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 45% | BTTS probability 49% | Total xG 2.46. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 55% — total xG of 2.46 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 49% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.

Our Verdict

Poisson rates Celta Vigo as the most likely outcome at 50% — moderate model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 29% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Celta Vigo offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.

The Poisson model projects 2.46 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 45% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence.

On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 49% on No. Form rates are neutral: Celta Vigo 70% | Osasuna 30%.

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