Celta Vigo 1-2 Osasuna – Result & Analysis
Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.
Poisson model rates Celta Vigo at 50%, yet other data sources diverge — this Celta Vigo vs Osasuna fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A La Liga encounter, Regular Season - 23 sees Osasuna travel to Estadio Abanca Balaídos to take on Celta Vigo. The game is scheduled for Friday 6 February 2026, 20:00 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, Celta Vigo stand at 6W 2D 2L from 10 La Liga matches — 2.00 PPG. Last five: W W W L D. They are averaging 1.40 goals per game and conceding 0.50 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. Defensively, conceding just 0.50 per game is an exceptional defensive record — one of the tightest in the division. 7 clean sheets from 10 games (70%) is a standout defensive return — they are keeping their net clean in more than half their matches. Both teams have scored in only 20% of their games — a low BTTS rate that suggests clean sheets are a regular occurrence. This season is still relatively young for Celta Vigo, so this record blends games from this season and last.
In front of their own supporters this season, Celta Vigo have posted 3W 5D 2L at Estadio Abanca Balaídos — 1.40 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.60 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture. Somewhat surprisingly, their home PPG of 1.40 lags behind their overall 2.00 — the home advantage has not translated into superior results at Estadio Abanca Balaídos this season.
Osasuna — All Games: 4W 3D 3L from 10 La Liga fixtures this season — 1.50 PPG. Last five: D L W W D. They are scoring at 1.70 per game and conceding 1.40. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Osasuna, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Osasuna away from home this season: 1W 2D 7L from 10 away games — 0.50 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 0.60 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel. Their away PPG of 0.50 is notably below their overall 1.50 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
Celta Vigo carry the stronger recent momentum — 0.50 PPG ahead of their opponents on 2.00 vs 1.50. The form data is a point in their favour, and where the price allows, it is the cleaner directional bet.
H2H
The rivalry is an even one: 4 wins apiece for Celta Vigo, 3 for Osasuna and 1 shared spoils from 8 past contests. Neither side holds a meaningful historical edge.
The 8 previous meetings have averaged 2.6 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 26 Oct 2025, ended 3–2 with Celta Vigo winning.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
In-Play Profile
Celta Vigo in-play tendencies (60 games, 30 at home): they score before half-time in 77% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 88% of the time; BTTS occurs in 63% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 47% of games (home games).
Osasuna in-play tendencies (60 games, 30 at away): they score before half-time in 40% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 80% of the time; BTTS occurs in 43% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 30% of games (away games).
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Celta Vigo 65% and Osasuna 57% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Celta Vigo 52% | Osasuna 43%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Celta Vigo 1.54 xG and Osasuna 0.92 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Celta Vigo attack 1.147 / defence 0.961 | Osasuna attack 0.864 / defence 0.914. League average goals — home 1.466 / away 1.108. Data: 60 Celta Vigo games / 60 Osasuna games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Celta Vigo 50% | Draw 29% | Osasuna 21%. Fair-value odds: Celta Vigo 2.00 | Draw 3.45 | Osasuna 4.76. Celta Vigo hold a narrow Poisson edge at 50% — the draw (29%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 45% | BTTS probability 49% | Total xG 2.46. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 55% — total xG of 2.46 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 49% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Celta Vigo as the most likely outcome at 50% — moderate model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 29% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Celta Vigo offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
The Poisson model projects 2.46 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 45% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 49% on No. Form rates are neutral: Celta Vigo 70% | Osasuna 30%.
🔮 Your Prediction
Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.
💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Celta Vigo vs Osasuna | Competition: La Liga, Regular Season - 23 | Venue: Estadio Abanca Balaídos • Kick-off: Friday 6 Feb 2026, 20:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Celta Vigo 50% | Draw 29% | Osasuna 21% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 45% | BTTS 49% | xG Celta Vigo 1.54 / Osasuna 0.92 • Poisson strength factors: Celta Vigo attack 1.147 / def 0.961 | Osasuna attack 0.864 / def 0.914 | league avg home 1.466 / away 1.108 • Poisson stance: Celta Vigo (50%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.54
Celta Vigo xG
Expected Goals
0.92
Osasuna xG
49%
BTTS
72%
Over 1.5
45%
Over 2.5
23%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Celta Vigo vs Osasuna kick off?
Celta Vigo vs Osasuna kicked off at 20:00 on Friday 6 February 2026 at Estadio Abanca Balaídos.
What was the final score in Celta Vigo vs Osasuna?
Celta Vigo 1 - 2 Osasuna.
Where is Celta Vigo vs Osasuna being played?
The match is being played at Estadio Abanca Balaídos.
What competition is Celta Vigo vs Osasuna part of?
Celta Vigo vs Osasuna is a Regular Season - 23 fixture in the La Liga (Spain).
Who is favourite to win Celta Vigo vs Osasuna?
Our statistical model gives Celta Vigo a 50% chance of winning, Osasuna a 21% chance, and a 29% chance of a draw — making Celta Vigo the favourite.
Will both teams score in Celta Vigo vs Osasuna?
Our model estimates a 49% probability that both Celta Vigo and Osasuna will score (BTTS).
Will Celta Vigo vs Osasuna have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 45%.
What is the head-to-head record between Celta Vigo and Osasuna?
Record (8 meetings): Celta Vigo 4W | Draws 1 | Osasuna 3W.
What form are Celta Vigo and Osasuna in?
Celta Vigo (all comps): 6W-2D-2L in 10 | 2.00 PPG | GF 1.40 / GA 0.50 | L5 W-W-W-L-D. Osasuna (all comps): 4W-3D-3L in 10 | 1.50 PPG | GF 1.70 / GA 1.40 | L5 D-L-W-W-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
The model rates Celta Vigo's attack at 1.15x the league average against Osasuna's defence at 0.91x — combine the two and it projects 1.54 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Osasuna's attack versus Celta Vigo's defence, projects 0.92 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 60/60 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 13.7% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-0 (11.6%), 0-0 (10.1%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 35% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Celta Vigo Win
50%
1.99
29%
3.47
21%
4.76
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
13.2%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
12.1%
Draw
2 – 0
10.1%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.54
Celta Vigo xG
Total xG
2.46
0.92
Osasuna xG
1.99
50%
Home win
3.47
29%
Draw
4.76
21%
Away win
Goals Markets
70%
Over 1.5
1.43
30%
Under 1.5
3.33
45%
Over 2.5
2.22
55%
Under 2.5
1.82
23%
Over 3.5
4.35
77%
Under 3.5
1.30
10%
Over 4.5
10.00
90%
Under 4.5
1.11
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
49%
BTTS Yes
2.05
51%
BTTS No
1.95
Clean Sheet
40%
2.51
22%
4.65
Win to Nil
20%
5.00
5%
22.16
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 8.6 | 7.9 | 3.6 | 1.1 | 0.3 | – |
| 1 | 13.2 | 12.1 | 5.6 | 1.7 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 10.1 | 9.3 | 4.3 | 1.3 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 5.2 | 4.8 | 2.2 | 0.7 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 2.0 | 1.8 | 0.8 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.6 | 0.6 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Celta Vigo vs Osasuna?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.7%.
How many goals are Celta Vigo and Osasuna expected to score?
The model projects 1.54 expected goals for Celta Vigo and 0.92 for Osasuna, a combined total of 2.46.
How confident is the prediction model for Celta Vigo vs Osasuna?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 50%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Celta Vigo come into this having played 60 games, going 24W 16D 20L for 1.47 points per game. Their last five reads W-W-W-L-D. The sample for Celta Vigo is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Osasuna sit at 1.30 PPG from 60 outings (19W 21D 20L), a run that reads D-L-W-W-D across their last five. The sample for Osasuna is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: Celta Vigo on 1.47 PPG, Osasuna on 1.30. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
Celta Vigo's home form reads 14W 8D 8L across 30 games on their own ground, a 1.67 PPG return.
Away from home, Osasuna have taken 0.70 points per game from 30 outings (3W 12D 15L). That's a step down from their 1.30 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of Osasuna's season.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Celta Vigo come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
Celta Vigo are averaging 1.47 goals scored and 1.33 conceded per game recently; Osasuna are on 1.23 scored and 1.32 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Celta Vigo have seen both teams score in 65% of their recent games.
Last 60 Results — La Liga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Celta Vigo
Blended
Osasuna
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Celta Vigo and Osasuna in coming into this match?
Celta Vigo have gone 24W 16D 20L in their last 60 games (1.47 PPG), while Osasuna have gone 19W 21D 20L in their last 60 (1.30 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Celta Vigo at home or Osasuna away?
Celta Vigo's home record (1.67 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Celta Vigo at home: 1.67 PPG; Osasuna away: 0.70 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Celta Vigo and Osasuna runs to 10 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to January 2022. Every recorded meeting has come in La Liga. The two were last together as recently as 27 August 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Digging Into the Numbers
Osasuna have won the last 2 meetings between these two, a run that gives them the psychological edge coming in.
The biggest gap between the sides came on 4 Feb 2024, when Celta Vigo won 0-3 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Celta Vigo's record when hosting Osasuna specifically: 2W 0D 4L from 6 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
4
Celta Vigo
1
Draws
5
Osasuna
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Celta Vigo and Osasuna?
From 10 meetings on record, Celta Vigo have won 4, Osasuna have won 5, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Celta Vigo and Osasuna last play each other?
They last met on 27 August 2026, when Celta Vigo 1-2 Osasuna.
Who has won more matches between Celta Vigo and Osasuna?
Osasuna have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Celta Vigo are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 77% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 37% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 23% of those situations.
Osasuna see a goal before the break in 40% of their matches.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Celta Vigo 63%, Osasuna 43% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 47% (Celta Vigo) and 30% (Osasuna).
On the defensive side: Osasuna in 53%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Celta Vigo home games / Osasuna away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Celta Vigo play Osasuna?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 63% of Celta Vigo's recent matches and 43% of Osasuna's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Celta Vigo vs Osasuna usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 47% of Celta Vigo's recent games and 30% of Osasuna's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Celta Vigo and Osasuna tend to score early?
Celta Vigo have had a goal before half-time in 77% of their recent matches, Osasuna in 40% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as Osasuna defy the odds to beat Celta Vigo 1-2.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Osasuna beat Celta Vigo 1-2 at Estadio Abanca Balaídos, Regular Season - 23, in the La Liga. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Celta Vigo 1.54 xG and Osasuna 0.92 xG, a combined 2.46. The scoreboard read 1-2 for 3 actual goals. Osasuna outscored their 0.92 projection by 1.1. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Celta Vigo attack 1.15 / defence 0.96 against Osasuna attack 0.86 / defence 0.91, drawn from 60/60 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Celta Vigo 50% | Draw 29% | Osasuna 21%, with Celta Vigo to win its most likely call at 50%. Instead the game produced a Osasuna win, an outcome the model had rated at just 21% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 45%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 72% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 49% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 48% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Celta Vigo 52%, Osasuna 43%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 61%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Celta Vigo's trading profile (60 games, 30 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 65% of their matches — today it did.
Osasuna's trading profile (60 games, 30 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 57% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Celta Vigo 1.47 PPG, Osasuna 1.30 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Osasuna win broke the near-deadlock. Celta Vigo (home/away splits) shipped 2 against a 1.13 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Osasuna (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 0.70 average — above their attacking norm.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.