🎯

Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

📋

Poisson model favours Real Madrid (48%) — form and H2H data both point in the same direction as Osasuna face Real Madrid.

✍️ Match Preview

Pre-Match Analysis

Osasuna and Real Madrid meet at Estadio El Sadar in La Liga, Regular Season - 25. This fixture gets under way on Saturday 21 February 2026 at 17:30 UTC.

Form

Osasuna (all games): 5W 3D 2L across 10 La Liga fixtures this term — 1.80 PPG. Last five: W W D W D. Offensively they are averaging 1.60 goals per game, with 1.00 conceded. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. This season is still relatively young for Osasuna, so this record blends games from this season and last.

Osasuna's home record at Estadio El Sadar: 5W 3D 2L from 10 La Liga appearances (1.80 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.90 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.

Real Madrid's overall La Liga record this term: 9W 0D 1L from 10 games (2.70 PPG). Last five: W W W W W. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.40 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. Defensively, 0.60 goals conceded per game is elite-level — a side this difficult to score against is a real threat to Over 2.5 and BTTS Yes. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not. This season is still relatively young for Real Madrid, so this record blends games from this season and last.

Real Madrid's away record: 6W 3D 1L from 10 road trips in La Liga this season (2.10 PPG). They are averaging 1.90 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support. 5 away clean sheets from 10 games (50%) — they are as difficult to score against on the road as they are at home. Their away PPG of 2.10 is notably below their overall 2.70 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.

The travelling side arrive in better shape. Real Madrid are 0.90 PPG clear of Osasuna in recent La Liga fixtures (2.70 vs 1.80). Backing the visitors outright or on Draw No Bet are both valid approaches where the price allows.

H2H History

Across the last 9 meetings, Real Madrid have the stronger historical record — 6 wins to Osasuna's 0, with 3 draws in the mix.

The 9 previous meetings have averaged 2.8 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 19 Aug 2025, ended 0–1 with Real Madrid winning.

The H2H provides genuine backing for the away side. Real Madrid have won 6 of 9 previous encounters, and at 2.8 goals per game, the goals market also points upward. The away win and Over 2.5 combination has a historical case worth noting.

Trading & In-Play

Osasuna — key trading statistics (62 games, 30 at home): they score before half-time in 93% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 76% of the time; BTTS occurs in 70% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 57% of games (home games).

Real Madrid — key trading statistics (62 games, 30 at away): they score before half-time in 67% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 95% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 74% of those occasions; they lead at the break 52% of the time; BTTS occurs in 53% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 57% of games (away games); they keep a clean sheet 42% of the time.

BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Osasuna 56% versus Real Madrid 53%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Osasuna 44% | Real Madrid 58%).

Poisson Model

The Poisson distribution model projects Osasuna 1.19 xG and Real Madrid 1.71 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Osasuna attack 1.124 / defence 1.103 | Real Madrid attack 1.359 / defence 0.704. League average goals — home 1.498 / away 1.140. Real Madrid's defence strength of 0.704 is below average — they are conceding at a rate that inflates the home xG figure. Real Madrid have an above-average attack strength of 1.359 — the away xG of 1.71 is driven by genuine attacking quality on the road. Data: 62 Osasuna games / 62 Real Madrid games used (CurrentSeason).

Result probabilities: Osasuna 25% | Draw 27% | Real Madrid 48%. Fair-value odds: Osasuna 4.00 | Draw 3.70 | Real Madrid 2.08. Real Madrid hold a narrow Poisson edge at 48% — the draw (27%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.

Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 55% | BTTS probability 58% | Total xG 2.90. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 55% — the 2.90 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS probability of 58% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.

Picks & Verdict

On the Poisson output, Real Madrid are the pick at 48% — moderate model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw probability of 27% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Real Madrid if the outright odds are short.

On the goals line, Poisson's 2.90 combined xG gives a 55% probability to Over 2.5 — strong, supported by form averaging 3.0 goals per game and H2H averaging 2.8 goals per meeting.

The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 58%. Form rates corroborate: Osasuna 70% | Real Madrid 50% BTTS from recent games.

🔮 Your Prediction

Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.

💡 Key Insights