Alaves 2-2 Osasuna – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Alaves at 40%, yet in-form Osasuna provide a compelling counter-argument — this Alaves vs Osasuna fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Alaves host Osasuna at Estadio Mendizorrotza in La Liga (matchday 30). Kick-off is Sunday 5 April 2026 at 21:00 UK time.
Form Analysis
Looking at their last 10 matches, Alaves stand at 3W 3D 4L — 1.20 PPG. Last five: D L L D W. They are averaging 1.40 goals per game and conceding 1.70 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.
At home, Alaves have gone 3W 4D 3L in their last 10 home games (1.30 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.00 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
Osasuna — last 10 games: 5W 3D 2L — 1.80 PPG. Last five: W L D L W. They are scoring at 1.60 per game and conceding 1.30. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings (20%). Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.
On the road, Osasuna have gone 2W 3D 5L in their last 10 away fixtures (0.90 PPG). Away from home they average 0.80 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game. Their away PPG of 0.90 is notably below their overall 1.80 — form away from home has been a clear weakness recently.
The form data does not support a straightforward home bias here. Osasuna are 0.60 PPG ahead (1.80 vs 1.20), making them the form-guided selection despite the trip.
H2H
Despite the home advantage, Osasuna have the better record in our head-to-head data — 5 wins from 7 H2H matches against 0 for Alaves.
The 7 H2H matches in our data averaged 2.1 goals per game — a neutral rate that gives no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent of those, on 20 Dec 2025, ended Alaves 0–3 Osasuna — a Osasuna win.
Osasuna have the better head-to-head record despite being the visitors — 5 wins from 7 H2H matches. Home advantage alone is not a reason to dismiss that.
In-Play Profile
Alaves in-play tendencies (last 67 games, 33 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 58% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 88% of the time; of the 16 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 50%; of the 17 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 29%; BTTS occurs in 48% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 30% of games (home games); they fail to score in 34% of games.
Osasuna in-play tendencies (last 67 games, 33 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 39% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 78% of the time; of the 26 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 38%; of the 14 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 43%; BTTS occurs in 46% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 30% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Alaves 52% versus Osasuna 57%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Alaves 40% | Osasuna 45%). There is an in-play dynamic worth noting: Alaves surrender their half-time lead 50% of the time, while Osasuna have come from behind at the break to draw or win in 43% of cases — a combination that makes laying the hosts at HT a potential angle.
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Alaves 1.15 xG and Osasuna 0.95 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Alaves attack 0.836 / defence 1.050 | Osasuna attack 0.805 / defence 0.879. League average goals — home 1.558 / away 1.123. Data: built from Alaves's last 67 games and Osasuna's last 67.
Result probabilities: Alaves 40% | Draw 30% | Osasuna 30%. Fair-value odds: Alaves 2.50 | Draw 3.34 | Osasuna 3.33. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome reaches 45%. The draw at 30% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 35% | BTTS Yes probability 42% | Total xG 2.09. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 65% probability — total xG of 2.09 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match. BTTS No at 58% is only a slight lean — the model gives both sides a fair chance of scoring, so No isn't a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Alaves as the most likely outcome at 40% — marginal model lean. Note a divergence: in-form Osasuna (1.80 PPG) cuts against the Poisson lean — the model adjusts for opposition strength, which raw form results do not. With a 30% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Alaves offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 30% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.09 combined xG gives a 65% probability to Under 2.5 — reasonable conviction, supported by recent form (Alaves's last 10 home games and Osasuna's last 10 away games) averaging 2.0 goals per game.
Poisson assigns a 58% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates are neutral — both teams scored in: Alaves 60% (last 10 home games) | Osasuna 40% (last 10 away games).
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Alaves vs Osasuna | Competition: La Liga, matchday 30 | Venue: Estadio Mendizorrotza • Kick-off: Sunday 5 April 2026 at 21:00 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Alaves 40% | Draw 30% | Osasuna 30% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 35% (Under 65%) | BTTS Yes 42% (No 58%) | xG Alaves 1.15 / Osasuna 0.95 • Poisson strength factors: Alaves attack 0.836 / def 1.050 | Osasuna attack 0.805 / def 0.879 | league avg home 1.558 / away 1.123 • Poisson stance: Alaves (40%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.15
Alaves xG
Expected Goals
0.95
Osasuna xG
42%
BTTS
62%
Over 1.5
35%
Over 2.5
16%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Alaves vs Osasuna FAQs
What time does Alaves vs Osasuna kick off?
Alaves vs Osasuna kicked off at 21:00 UK time on Sunday 5 April 2026 at Estadio Mendizorrotza.
What was the final score in Alaves vs Osasuna?
Alaves 2 - 2 Osasuna.
Where is Alaves vs Osasuna being played?
The match is being played at Estadio Mendizorrotza.
What competition is Alaves vs Osasuna part of?
Alaves vs Osasuna is a La Liga fixture (matchday 30) (Spain).
Who is favourite to win Alaves vs Osasuna?
Our statistical model gives Alaves a 40% chance of winning, Osasuna a 30% chance, and a 30% chance of a draw — making Alaves the favourite.
Will both teams score in Alaves vs Osasuna?
Our model estimates a 42% probability that both Alaves and Osasuna will score, so it leans towards BTTS No (58%).
Will Alaves vs Osasuna have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 35%, so it leans towards under 2.5 goals (65%).
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Working from Alaves's attack rating (0.84) and Osasuna's defence rating (0.88), the model arrives at 1.15 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Osasuna's attack versus Alaves's defence, projects 0.95 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from Alaves's last 67 games and Osasuna's last 67 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 15.1%. Close behind: 0-0 (14.1%), 1-0 (12.4%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 42% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Alaves Win
40%
2.50
30%
3.34
30%
3.33
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
14.1%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
13.4%
Draw
0 – 0
12.3%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.15
Alaves xG
Total xG
2.09
0.95
Osasuna xG
2.50
40%
Home win
3.34
30%
Draw
3.33
30%
Away win
Goals Markets
62%
Over 1.5
1.61
38%
Under 1.5
2.63
35%
Over 2.5
2.86
65%
Under 2.5
1.54
16%
Over 3.5
6.25
84%
Under 3.5
1.19
6%
Over 4.5
16.67
94%
Under 4.5
1.06
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
42%
BTTS Yes
2.39
58%
BTTS No
1.72
Clean Sheet
39%
2.58
32%
3.14
Win to Nil
16%
6.45
10%
10.47
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 12.3 | 11.7 | 5.5 | 1.8 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 14.1 | 13.4 | 6.4 | 2.0 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 8.1 | 7.7 | 3.6 | 1.2 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 3.1 | 2.9 | 1.4 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 0.9 | 0.8 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Alaves vs Osasuna Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for Alaves vs Osasuna?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 15.1%.
How many goals are Alaves and Osasuna expected to score?
The model projects 1.15 expected goals for Alaves and 0.95 for Osasuna, a combined total of 2.09.
How confident is the prediction model for Alaves vs Osasuna?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 40%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Alaves's recent record stands at 18W 19D 30L from 67 games, a 1.09 PPG return, with D-L-L-D-W in the last five.
Osasuna, meanwhile, have gone 22W 23D 22L across 67 games — 1.33 PPG, with W-L-D-L-W in their last five.
Form-wise this is close to level: Alaves on 1.09 PPG, Osasuna on 1.33. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
At home specifically, Alaves have managed 11W 11D 11L from their last 33 home games — 1.33 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Osasuna's away record stands at 4W 13D 16L across their last 33 away games, a 0.76 PPG haul. That's a step down from their 1.33 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of Osasuna's recent record.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Alaves come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
Alaves are averaging 1.01 goals scored and 1.33 conceded per game recently; Osasuna are on 1.22 scored and 1.30 conceded.
Last 67 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Alaves
Current Season
Osasuna
Current Season
Alaves (Home) vs Osasuna (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
Alaves
Current Season
Osasuna
Current Season
❓ Alaves vs Osasuna Form FAQs
What form are Alaves and Osasuna in coming into this match?
Alaves have gone 18W 19D 30L in their last 67 games (1.09 PPG), while Osasuna have gone 22W 23D 22L in their last 67 (1.33 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Alaves at home or Osasuna away?
Alaves's home record (1.33 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Alaves at home: 1.33 PPG; Osasuna away: 0.76 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The head-to-head numbers here are drawn from the 9 H2H matches in our data, going back to September 2021. All of them came in La Liga. The most recent was as recently as 6 September 2026, so it is a fresh reference point.
Digging Into the Numbers
The biggest gap in our H2H data came on 20 Dec 2025, when Osasuna won Osasuna 3-0 Alaves.
Alaves's record when hosting Osasuna specifically: 1W 2D 2L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 9 Meetings
1
Alaves
3
Draws
5
Osasuna
Recent Meetings
❓ Alaves vs Osasuna H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between Alaves and Osasuna?
Across the 9 head-to-head matches in our data, Alaves have won 1, Osasuna have won 5, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Alaves and Osasuna last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 6 September 2026: Alaves 5-2 Osasuna.
Who has won more matches between Alaves and Osasuna?
Osasuna have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from the 9 head-to-head matches in our data.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Alaves see a goal before the break in 58% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 27% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 22% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 17% of those situations.
Osasuna see a goal before the break in 39% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 14% of those situations.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Alaves 48%, Osasuna 46% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Low-scoring games have been more typical here — Over 2.5 sits at just 30% for Alaves and 30% for Osasuna.
On the defensive side: Alaves have failed to score in 33% of games; Osasuna in 52%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Alaves home games / Osasuna away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Alaves vs Osasuna Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in Alaves and Osasuna matches?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 48% of Alaves's recent matches and 46% of Osasuna's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Are Alaves and Osasuna matches usually high-scoring?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 30% of Alaves's recent games and 30% of Osasuna's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Alaves and Osasuna share the spoils in a 2-2 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at Estadio Mendizorrotza, Regular Season - 30, as Alaves and Osasuna drew 2-2 in the La Liga. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Alaves 1.15 xG and Osasuna 0.95 xG, a combined 2.09. The scoreboard read 2-2 for 4 actual goals. Alaves beat their projection by 0.9 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Osasuna outscored their 0.95 projection by 1.1. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Alaves attack 0.84 / defence 1.05 against Osasuna attack 0.81 / defence 0.88, drawn from 67/67 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Alaves 40% | Draw 30% | Osasuna 30%, with Alaves to win its most likely call at 40%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 30%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 35%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 62% and landed. Over 3.5 was 16% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 42% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 43% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Alaves 40%, Osasuna 45%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 54%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Alaves's trading profile (67 games, 33 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 52% of their matches — today it did.
Osasuna's trading profile (67 games, 33 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 57% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Alaves 1.09 PPG, Osasuna 1.33 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing. Alaves (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 0.94 average — above their attacking norm and shipped 2 against a 1.00 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Osasuna (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 0.73 average — above their attacking norm.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.
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