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Poisson model rates Real Sociedad at 59%, yet other data sources diverge — this Real Sociedad vs Alaves fixture contains genuine analytical tension.

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Full Analysis

Reale Arena plays host to Real Sociedad versus Alaves in La Liga, Regular Season - 31. Kick-off: Saturday 11 April 2026 at 13:00 UTC.

Form

Real Sociedad (all games): 5W 2D 3L across 10 La Liga fixtures this term — 1.70 PPG. Last five: W L W L W. They are averaging 2.00 goals per game — a high-scoring output that makes them a genuine attacking threat in any fixture. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches — an extremely high rate that makes BTTS Yes a well-supported standalone angle from their form alone.

In front of their own supporters this season, Real Sociedad have posted 6W 2D 2L at Reale Arena — 2.00 PPG. They are averaging 2.30 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. Both teams have scored in 90% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.

Alaves have collected 1.30 PPG across 10 La Liga outings this season: 3W 4D 3L. Last five: L L D W D. They are scoring at 1.60 per game and conceding 1.80. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches this season — one of the stronger BTTS rates in the division, making Yes a well-evidenced play.

Alaves's form when playing away from home: 2W 1D 7L across 10 road games this term (0.70 PPG). Away from home they average 1.10 goals scored and 2.10 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context. Their away PPG of 0.70 is notably below their overall 1.30 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.

A near-identical PPG reading — 1.70 for Real Sociedad, 1.30 for Alaves — means the form record is uninstructive on result selection. The goals and market sections will carry greater evidential weight.

In terms of goals, both squads have been finding the net consistently (using home/away splits) — Real Sociedad have seen both teams score in 90% of their games, Alaves in 60%. That combined rate is a strong statistical case for BTTS Yes as a standalone play.

H2H History

Form and model data should carry more weight here — the historical record is too balanced to provide a directional steer. From 7 meetings: Real Sociedad 2W, Alaves 3W, 2D.

Scoring has been limited when these teams have met. The 7 previous contests averaged 1.6 goals, making the Under 2.5 the historically backed angle in the goals market. The most recent clash, on 6 Dec 2025, ended 0–1 with Alaves winning.

With a balanced win record and just 1.6 goals per game historically, the H2H points toward a tight, low-scoring contest. Under 2.5 goals has the strongest statistical grounding from the fixture history regardless of which side wins.

Trading

Real Sociedad half-time and goal-timing data (68 games, 34 at home): they score before half-time in 68% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 78% of the time; BTTS occurs in 53% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 56% of games (home games); they fail to score in 32% of games.

Alaves half-time and goal-timing data (68 games, 34 at away): they score before half-time in 68% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 88% of the time; BTTS occurs in 56% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (away games); they fail to score in 34% of games.

BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Real Sociedad 50% versus Alaves 53%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Real Sociedad 50% | Alaves 41%).

Poisson Model

The Poisson distribution model projects Real Sociedad 2.23 xG and Alaves 1.26 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Real Sociedad attack 1.222 / defence 1.089 | Alaves attack 1.031 / defence 1.175. League average goals — home 1.553 / away 1.122. Data: 68 Real Sociedad games / 68 Alaves games used (CurrentSeason).

Result probabilities: Real Sociedad 59% | Draw 20% | Alaves 21%. Fair-value odds: Real Sociedad 1.69 | Draw 5.00 | Alaves 4.76. The model has a clear lean to Real Sociedad (59%) — a 38pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.

Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 68% | BTTS probability 64% | Total xG 3.49. Over 2.5 is the model's clear signal at 68% — a total xG of 3.49 means the expected score alone exceeds the 2.5 threshold, making the Over not just likely but structurally supported by both sides' attack/defence profiles. BTTS Yes at 64% reflects that both xG figures (2.23 / 1.26) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.

Final Verdict

Poisson rates Real Sociedad as the most likely outcome at 59% — clear model lean. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 20% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.

Poisson projects 3.49 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 68% probability — marginal — conflicting signals conviction, supported by form averaging 3.5 goals per game — though H2H averaging only 1.6 goals per meeting points in the other direction.

On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 64% on Yes. Form rates corroborate: Real Sociedad 90% | Alaves 60% BTTS from recent games.

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