Rayo Vallecano 1-0 Elche – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Rayo Vallecano at 61%, yet other data sources diverge — this Rayo Vallecano vs Elche fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a La Liga clash, Regular Season - 30 as Rayo Vallecano welcome Elche to Campo de Futbol de Vallecas. Kick-off is set for Friday 3 April 2026 at 20:00 UTC.
Form Guide
Rayo Vallecano — All Games: 2W 4D 4L from 10 La Liga outings this season, averaging 1.00 points per game. Last five: D W D D L. They are averaging 1.20 goals per game and conceding 1.30 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.
At home at Campo de Futbol de Vallecas, Rayo Vallecano have gone 3W 6D 1L this season (10 games, 1.50 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.30 goals scored and 0.80 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture. Their home PPG of 1.50 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.00 — Rayo Vallecano are significantly better at Campo de Futbol de Vallecas than their overall form suggests.
Across all La Liga games this season, Elche have recorded 1W 3D 6L from 10 outings — 0.60 PPG. Last five: L D L L W. Their scoring rate of 1.30 per game is modest, conceding 2.20 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Conceding 2.20 per game is a high rate — their defensive vulnerabilities have been exposed regularly this season. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 90% of their matches this season — one of the stronger BTTS rates in the division, making Yes a well-evidenced play.
On the road, Elche have gone 0W 1D 9L from 10 away fixtures this term (0.10 PPG). Away from home they average 0.90 goals scored and 2.30 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 80% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture. Their away PPG of 0.10 is notably below their overall 0.60 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
There is minimal separation in the form figures — Rayo Vallecano at 1.00 PPG versus Elche's 0.60. The form guide is not providing a strong directional steer; the model and market data will carry more weight in the final assessment.
The BTTS market is worth targeting here. Rayo Vallecano register both teams scoring in 60% of relevant matches, Elche in 80% (using home/away splits) — both sides above the 60% threshold gives BTTS Yes firm statistical grounding.
H2H Record
There is little to separate the sides historically. From 5 previous meetings, Rayo Vallecano have won 2, Elche 3, with 0 draws — a balanced ledger that offers no obvious directional steer on its own.
Goals have been a feature of this fixture. The last 5 meetings have averaged 3.4 per game — a rate that gives the Over 2.5 market a solid historical foundation. The most recent clash, on 21 Dec 2025, ended 0–4 with Elche winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.4 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
In-Play Data
Rayo Vallecano trading profile (29 games, 14 at home): they score before half-time in 64% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 62% of the time; BTTS occurs in 57% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 29% of games (home games); they fail to score in 38% of games.
Elche trading profile (29 games, 14 at away): they score before half-time in 64% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 82% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 64% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 86% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 64% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 45%.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Rayo Vallecano 45% versus Elche 72%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Rayo Vallecano 38% | Elche 62%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Rayo Vallecano 1.89 xG and Elche 0.86 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Rayo Vallecano attack 0.904 / defence 0.862 | Elche attack 0.864 / defence 1.331. League average goals — home 1.567 / away 1.153. Elche bring a strong defensive rating of 1.331 — this is suppressing Rayo Vallecano's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 67 Rayo Vallecano games / 29 Elche games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Rayo Vallecano 61% | Draw 22% | Elche 16%. Fair-value odds: Rayo Vallecano 1.64 | Draw 4.55 | Elche 6.25. The model has a clear lean to Rayo Vallecano (61%) — a 45pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 52% | BTTS probability 49% | Total xG 2.75. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 52%/48% — the total xG of 2.75 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 49% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Rayo Vallecano at 61% — clear model lean. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 22% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
The Poisson model projects 2.75 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 52% — reasonable confidence, supported by H2H averaging 3.4 goals per meeting.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 49% on No. This conflicts with form data: Rayo Vallecano 60% | Elche 80% from recent games — a notable divergence.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Rayo Vallecano vs Elche | Competition: La Liga, Regular Season - 30 | Venue: Campo de Futbol de Vallecas • Kick-off: Friday 3 Apr 2026, 20:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Rayo Vallecano 61% | Draw 22% | Elche 16% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 52% | BTTS 49% | xG Rayo Vallecano 1.89 / Elche 0.86 • Poisson strength factors: Rayo Vallecano attack 0.904 / def 0.862 | Elche attack 0.864 / def 1.331 | league avg home 1.567 / away 1.153 • Poisson stance: Rayo Vallecano (61%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.89
Rayo Vallecano xG
Expected Goals
0.86
Elche xG
49%
BTTS
76%
Over 1.5
52%
Over 2.5
30%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Rayo Vallecano vs Elche kick off?
Rayo Vallecano vs Elche kicked off at 20:00 on Friday 3 April 2026 at Campo de Futbol de Vallecas.
What was the final score in Rayo Vallecano vs Elche?
Rayo Vallecano 1 - 0 Elche.
Where is Rayo Vallecano vs Elche being played?
The match is being played at Campo de Futbol de Vallecas.
What competition is Rayo Vallecano vs Elche part of?
Rayo Vallecano vs Elche is a Regular Season - 30 fixture in the La Liga (Spain).
Who is favourite to win Rayo Vallecano vs Elche?
Our statistical model gives Rayo Vallecano a 61% chance of winning, Elche a 16% chance, and a 22% chance of a draw — making Rayo Vallecano the favourite.
Will both teams score in Rayo Vallecano vs Elche?
Our model estimates a 49% probability that both Rayo Vallecano and Elche will score (BTTS).
Will Rayo Vallecano vs Elche have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 52%.
What is the head-to-head record between Rayo Vallecano and Elche?
Record (5 meetings): Rayo Vallecano 2W | Draws 0 | Elche 3W.
What form are Rayo Vallecano and Elche in?
Rayo Vallecano (all comps): 2W-4D-4L in 10 | 1.00 PPG | GF 1.20 / GA 1.30 | L5 D-W-D-D-L. Elche (all comps): 1W-3D-6L in 10 | 0.60 PPG | GF 1.30 / GA 2.20 | L5 L-D-L-L-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
The model rates Rayo Vallecano's attack at 0.90x the league average against Elche's defence at 1.33x — combine the two and it projects 1.89 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Elche's attack versus Rayo Vallecano's defence, projects 0.86 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 67/29 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 11.8% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 2-0 (11.4%), 1-0 (10.8%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 34% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Rayo Vallecano Win
61%
1.63
22%
4.53
16%
6.08
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
12.1%
Home win
Most likely
2 – 0
11.4%
Home win
1 – 1
10.4%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.89
Rayo Vallecano xG
Total xG
2.75
0.86
Elche xG
1.63
61%
Home win
4.53
22%
Draw
6.08
16%
Away win
Goals Markets
76%
Over 1.5
1.32
24%
Under 1.5
4.17
52%
Over 2.5
1.92
48%
Under 2.5
2.08
30%
Over 3.5
3.33
70%
Under 3.5
1.43
14%
Over 4.5
7.14
86%
Under 4.5
1.16
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
49%
BTTS Yes
2.04
51%
BTTS No
1.96
Clean Sheet
42%
2.36
15%
6.60
Win to Nil
26%
3.84
2%
40.12
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.4 | 5.5 | 2.4 | 0.7 | 0.1 | – |
| 1 | 12.1 | 10.4 | 4.5 | 1.3 | 0.3 | – |
| 2 | 11.4 | 9.8 | 4.2 | 1.2 | 0.3 | – |
| 3 | 7.2 | 6.2 | 2.7 | 0.8 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 3.4 | 2.9 | 1.3 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 1.3 | 1.1 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Rayo Vallecano vs Elche?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 11.8%.
How many goals are Rayo Vallecano and Elche expected to score?
The model projects 1.89 expected goals for Rayo Vallecano and 0.86 for Elche, a combined total of 2.75.
How confident is the prediction model for Rayo Vallecano vs Elche?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 61%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Across their last 29 outings, Rayo Vallecano have picked up 1.10 PPG on a 7W 11D 11L record — D-W-D-D-L across the most recent five.
Elche's form line: 6W 11D 12L from 29 games, 1.00 PPG, last five L-D-L-L-W.
Form-wise this is close to level: Rayo Vallecano on 1.10 PPG, Elche on 1.00. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
On home soil, Rayo Vallecano have posted 1.43 PPG from 14 outings (4W 8D 2L).
On the road, Elche have gone 0W 4D 10L from 14 away games — 0.29 PPG when travelling. That's a step down from their 1.00 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of Elche's season.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Rayo Vallecano come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
Rayo Vallecano are averaging 0.97 goals scored and 1.21 conceded per game recently; Elche are on 1.31 scored and 1.59 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Elche in 72%.
Last 29 Results — La Liga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Rayo Vallecano
Current Season
Elche
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Rayo Vallecano and Elche in coming into this match?
Rayo Vallecano have gone 7W 11D 11L in their last 29 games (1.10 PPG), while Elche have gone 6W 11D 12L in their last 29 (1.00 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Rayo Vallecano at home or Elche away?
Rayo Vallecano's home record (1.43 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Rayo Vallecano at home: 1.43 PPG; Elche away: 0.29 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Rayo Vallecano and Elche runs to 6 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to October 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in La Liga. They last met on 3 April 2026, roughly 5 months ago.
Digging Into the Numbers
The biggest gap between the sides came on 29 Apr 2023, when Elche won 4-0 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Rayo Vallecano's record when hosting Elche specifically: 3W 0D 0L from 3 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 6 Meetings
3
Rayo Vallecano
0
Draws
3
Elche
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Rayo Vallecano and Elche?
From 6 meetings on record, Rayo Vallecano have won 3, Elche have won 3, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Rayo Vallecano and Elche last play each other?
They last met on 3 April 2026, when Rayo Vallecano 1-0 Elche.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Rayo Vallecano are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 64% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 43% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 21% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 14% of those situations.
Elche are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 64% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 14% of those situations.
The Numbers That Matter
Both teams scoring has been the norm for this pairing lately — Rayo Vallecano at 57%, Elche at 86%. That combined rate makes BTTS Yes a well-supported trading angle.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 29% (Rayo Vallecano) and 64% (Elche).
On the defensive side: Rayo Vallecano keep a clean sheet in 36% of their matches.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Rayo Vallecano home games / Elche away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Rayo Vallecano play Elche?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 57% of Rayo Vallecano's games and 86% of Elche's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Rayo Vallecano vs Elche usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 29% of Rayo Vallecano's recent games and 64% of Elche's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Rayo Vallecano and Elche tend to score early?
Rayo Vallecano have had a goal before half-time in 64% of their recent matches, Elche in 64% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Rayo Vallecano edge out Elche 1-0.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Rayo Vallecano beat Elche 1-0 at Campo de Futbol de Vallecas, Regular Season - 30, in the La Liga. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Rayo Vallecano 1.89 xG and Elche 0.86 xG, a combined 2.75. The scoreboard read 1-0 for 1 actual goal. Rayo Vallecano fell 0.9 short of their projected output. Elche landed 0.9 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Rayo Vallecano attack 0.90 / defence 0.86 against Elche attack 0.86 / defence 1.33, drawn from 67/29 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Rayo Vallecano 61% | Draw 22% | Elche 16%, with Rayo Vallecano to win its most likely call at 61%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 52%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 76% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 49% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 50% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Rayo Vallecano 38%, Elche 62%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 59%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Rayo Vallecano's trading profile (29 games, 14 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 45% of their matches — today it did not.
Elche's trading profile (29 games, 14 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 72% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Rayo Vallecano 1.10 PPG, Elche 1.00 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Rayo Vallecano win broke the near-deadlock. Elche (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.00 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 1 against a 2.14 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.