Osasuna 1-1 Real Betis – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Osasuna at 51%, yet other data sources diverge — this Osasuna vs Real Betis fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Estadio El Sadar plays host to Osasuna versus Real Betis in La Liga, Regular Season - 31. Kick-off: Sunday 12 April 2026 at 13:00 UTC.
Current Form
Osasuna's overall La Liga record this term: 4W 4D 2L from 10 games (1.60 PPG). Last five: L D L W D. Offensively they are averaging 1.50 goals per game, with 1.30 conceded. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.
Osasuna at Estadio El Sadar this season: 5W 3D 2L from 10 home games — 1.80 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.90 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Real Betis (all games): 3W 4D 3L across 10 La Liga outings this term — 1.30 points per game. Last five: D L D L D. Their scoring rate of 1.10 per game is modest, conceding 1.20 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.
Real Betis's form when playing away from home: 3W 3D 4L across 10 road games this term (1.20 PPG). Away from home they average 1.00 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
Neither side holds a meaningful form edge. The 1.60 vs 1.30 PPG split is negligible — model and market signals should carry more analytical weight for this one.
In terms of goals, both squads have been finding the net consistently (using home/away splits) — Osasuna have seen both teams score in 70% of their games, Real Betis in 60%. That combined rate is a strong statistical case for BTTS Yes as a standalone play.
Head-to-Head
Real Betis hold the superior head-to-head record in this fixture, claiming 7 wins from 9 meetings. The hosts have won just 1 times in that span.
Attacking output has been a hallmark of this fixture. At 3.0 goals per game across 9 meetings, the Over 2.5 has a statistically grounded case from the head-to-head record alone. The most recent clash, on 28 Sep 2025, ended 0–2 with Real Betis winning.
The H2H provides genuine backing for the away side. Real Betis have won 7 of 9 previous encounters, and at 3.0 goals per game, the goals market also points upward. The away win and Over 2.5 combination has a historical case worth noting.
Trading
Osasuna half-time and goal-timing data (68 games, 33 at home): they score before half-time in 91% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 78% of the time; BTTS occurs in 70% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 58% of games (home games).
Real Betis half-time and goal-timing data (68 games, 33 at away): they score before half-time in 73% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 84% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 58% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 73% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 52% of games (away games).
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Osasuna 57% and Real Betis 68% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Osasuna 46% | Real Betis 52%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Osasuna 1.71 xG and Real Betis 1.15 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Osasuna attack 1.075 / defence 1.040 | Real Betis attack 0.981 / defence 1.016. League average goals — home 1.569 / away 1.122. Data: 68 Osasuna games / 68 Real Betis games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Osasuna 51% | Draw 24% | Real Betis 25%. Fair-value odds: Osasuna 1.96 | Draw 4.17 | Real Betis 4.00. Osasuna hold a narrow Poisson edge at 51% — the draw (24%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 54% | BTTS probability 56% | Total xG 2.86. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 54%/46% — the total xG of 2.86 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 56% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates Osasuna as the most likely outcome at 51% — moderate model lean. Draw probability of 24% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Osasuna if the outright odds are short.
The Poisson model projects 2.86 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 54% — strong confidence, supported by form averaging 2.8 goals per game and H2H averaging 3.0 goals per meeting.
Poisson assigns a 56% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Osasuna 70% | Real Betis 60% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Osasuna vs Real Betis | Competition: La Liga, Regular Season - 31 | Venue: Estadio El Sadar • Kick-off: Sunday 12 Apr 2026, 13:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Osasuna 51% | Draw 24% | Real Betis 25% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 54% | BTTS 56% | xG Osasuna 1.71 / Real Betis 1.15 • Poisson strength factors: Osasuna attack 1.075 / def 1.040 | Real Betis attack 0.981 / def 1.016 | league avg home 1.569 / away 1.122 • Poisson stance: Osasuna (51%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.71
Osasuna xG
Expected Goals
1.15
Real Betis xG
56%
BTTS
78%
Over 1.5
54%
Over 2.5
32%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Osasuna vs Real Betis kick off?
Osasuna vs Real Betis kicked off at 13:00 on Sunday 12 April 2026 at Estadio El Sadar.
What was the final score in Osasuna vs Real Betis?
Osasuna 1 - 1 Real Betis.
Where is Osasuna vs Real Betis being played?
The match is being played at Estadio El Sadar.
What competition is Osasuna vs Real Betis part of?
Osasuna vs Real Betis is a Regular Season - 31 fixture in the La Liga (Spain).
Who is favourite to win Osasuna vs Real Betis?
Our statistical model gives Osasuna a 51% chance of winning, Real Betis a 25% chance, and a 24% chance of a draw — making Osasuna the favourite.
Will both teams score in Osasuna vs Real Betis?
Our model estimates a 56% probability that both Osasuna and Real Betis will score (BTTS).
Will Osasuna vs Real Betis have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 54%.
What is the head-to-head record between Osasuna and Real Betis?
Record (9 meetings): Osasuna 1W | Draws 1 | Real Betis 7W.
What form are Osasuna and Real Betis in?
Osasuna (all comps): 4W-4D-2L in 10 | 1.60 PPG | GF 1.50 / GA 1.30 | L5 L-D-L-W-D. Real Betis (all comps): 3W-4D-3L in 10 | 1.30 PPG | GF 1.10 / GA 1.20 | L5 D-L-D-L-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
The model rates Osasuna's attack at 1.07x the league average against Real Betis's defence at 1.02x — combine the two and it projects 1.71 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — Real Betis's attack (0.98x) against Osasuna's defence (1.04x) — and the away total comes out at 1.15.
These ratings are built from 68/68 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 12.7% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 2-1 (9.6%), 2-0 (8.4%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 31% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Osasuna Win
51%
1.97
24%
4.19
25%
3.93
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.3%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
9.8%
Home win
2 – 1
9.6%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.71
Osasuna xG
Total xG
2.86
1.15
Real Betis xG
1.97
51%
Home win
4.19
24%
Draw
3.93
25%
Away win
Goals Markets
78%
Over 1.5
1.28
22%
Under 1.5
4.55
54%
Over 2.5
1.85
46%
Under 2.5
2.17
32%
Over 3.5
3.12
68%
Under 3.5
1.47
16%
Over 4.5
6.25
84%
Under 4.5
1.19
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
56%
BTTS Yes
1.79
44%
BTTS No
2.27
Clean Sheet
32%
3.14
18%
5.55
Win to Nil
16%
6.20
5%
21.78
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.7 | 6.6 | 3.8 | 1.4 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 9.8 | 11.3 | 6.4 | 2.5 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 8.4 | 9.6 | 5.5 | 2.1 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 4.8 | 5.5 | 3.2 | 1.2 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 2.1 | 2.4 | 1.3 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.7 | 0.8 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Osasuna vs Real Betis?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.7%.
How many goals are Osasuna and Real Betis expected to score?
The model projects 1.71 expected goals for Osasuna and 1.15 for Real Betis, a combined total of 2.86.
How confident is the prediction model for Osasuna vs Real Betis?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 51%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Osasuna's recent record stands at 22W 24D 22L from 68 games, a 1.32 PPG return, with L-D-L-W-D in the last five.
Real Betis, meanwhile, have gone 27W 24D 17L across 68 games — 1.54 PPG, with D-L-D-L-D in their last five.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.32 PPG for Osasuna against 1.54 for Real Betis. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
Home & Away Splits
At home specifically, Osasuna have managed 18W 10D 5L from 33 games — 1.94 PPG in front of their own supporters. That's noticeably better than their 1.32 PPG overall — Osasuna are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
Real Betis's away record stands at 11W 11D 11L across 33 trips, a 1.33 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Osasuna come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Osasuna are averaging 1.24 goals scored and 1.31 conceded per game recently; Real Betis are on 1.49 scored and 1.28 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Real Betis in 68%.
Last 68 Results — La Liga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Osasuna
Current Season
Real Betis
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Osasuna and Real Betis in coming into this match?
Osasuna have gone 22W 24D 22L in their last 68 games (1.32 PPG), while Real Betis have gone 27W 24D 17L in their last 68 (1.54 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Osasuna at home or Real Betis away?
Osasuna's home record (1.94 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Osasuna at home: 1.94 PPG; Real Betis away: 1.33 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 10 times since September 2021 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in La Liga. They last met on 12 April 2026, roughly 4 months ago.
Records & Recent Trends
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Real Betis won 4-1 on 3 Apr 2022, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Osasuna have gone 1W 1D 3L from 5 meetings on their own ground against Real Betis — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
1
Osasuna
2
Draws
7
Real Betis
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Osasuna and Real Betis?
From 10 meetings on record, Osasuna have won 1, Real Betis have won 7, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Osasuna and Real Betis last play each other?
They last met on 12 April 2026, when Osasuna 1-1 Real Betis.
Who has won more matches between Osasuna and Real Betis?
Real Betis have the better head-to-head record, with 7 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Osasuna are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 91% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 61% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 24% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 15% of those situations.
Real Betis are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 73% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 27% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 18% of those situations.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS has landed consistently for both sides recently — 70% for Osasuna, 73% for Real Betis — a strong two-way scoring signal.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 58% (Osasuna) and 52% (Real Betis).
On the defensive side: Osasuna keep a clean sheet in 30% of their matches.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Osasuna home games / Real Betis away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Osasuna play Real Betis?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 70% of Osasuna's games and 73% of Real Betis's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Osasuna vs Real Betis usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 58% of Osasuna's recent games and 52% of Real Betis's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Osasuna and Real Betis tend to score early?
Osasuna have had a goal before half-time in 91% of their recent matches, Real Betis in 73% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Osasuna and Real Betis share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Osasuna and Real Betis finished level at 1-1 at Estadio El Sadar, Regular Season - 31, in the La Liga. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Osasuna 1.71 xG and Real Betis 1.15 xG, a combined 2.86. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Osasuna attack 1.07 / defence 1.04 against Real Betis attack 0.98 / defence 1.02, drawn from 68/68 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Osasuna 51% | Draw 24% | Real Betis 25%, with Osasuna to win its most likely call at 51%. Instead the game produced a draw, an outcome the model had rated at just 24% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 54%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 78% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 56% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 49% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Osasuna 46%, Real Betis 52%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 62%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Osasuna's trading profile (68 games, 33 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 57% of their matches — today it did.
Real Betis's trading profile (68 games, 33 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 68% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Osasuna 1.32 PPG, Real Betis 1.54 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.