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Poisson model favours Celta Vigo (59%) — form and H2H data both point in the same direction as Celta Vigo face Alaves.

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Analysis

Alaves make the trip to Estadio Abanca Balaídos to face Celta Vigo in La Liga, Regular Season - 29. The match kicks off on Sunday 22 March 2026 at 15:15 UTC.

Form

Celta Vigo (all games): 4W 3D 3L across 10 La Liga fixtures this term — 1.50 PPG. Last five: D W W L D. They are averaging 1.40 goals per game and conceding 1.10 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.

In front of their own supporters this season, Celta Vigo have posted 4W 2D 4L at Estadio Abanca Balaídos — 1.40 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.70 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.

Alaves's overall La Liga record this term: 2W 3D 5L from 10 games (0.90 PPG). Last five: D D L L D. Their scoring rate of 1.10 per game is modest, conceding 1.70 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.

Alaves's form when playing away from home: 1W 1D 8L across 10 road games this term (0.40 PPG). Away from home they average 0.70 goals scored and 1.90 conceded per game. Their away PPG of 0.40 is notably below their overall 0.90 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.

The form ledger tips toward Celta Vigo. A 0.60 PPG lead over Alaves (1.50 vs 0.90) is a consistent enough margin to carry weight. If the win odds appear compressed, Draw No Bet offers draw insurance at a lower cost than a full switch to Double Chance.

H2H Analysis

The head-to-head record favours Celta Vigo, who have won 4 of the last 7 meetings against Alaves — a 2D 1W return for the visitors.

The 7 previous meetings have averaged 2.6 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 22 Nov 2025, ended 1–0 with Celta Vigo winning.

The historical record gives Celta Vigo a meaningful edge here — 4 wins from 7 meetings is the kind of ledger that should not be discounted when the form picture is inconclusive. Even away from home, the visitors have struggled to impose themselves in this fixture.

Trading

Celta Vigo half-time and goal-timing data (66 games, 33 at home): they score before half-time in 76% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 89% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 64% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 48% of games (home games).

Alaves half-time and goal-timing data (66 games, 33 at away): they score before half-time in 67% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 88% of the time; BTTS occurs in 54% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 48% of games (away games); they fail to score in 35% of games.

BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Celta Vigo 67% versus Alaves 52%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Celta Vigo 53% | Alaves 39%).

Poisson Model

The Poisson distribution model projects Celta Vigo 1.87 xG and Alaves 0.94 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Celta Vigo attack 1.074 / defence 1.019 | Alaves attack 0.824 / defence 1.127. League average goals — home 1.544 / away 1.124. Data: 66 Celta Vigo games / 66 Alaves games used (CurrentSeason).

Result probabilities: Celta Vigo 59% | Draw 23% | Alaves 18%. Fair-value odds: Celta Vigo 1.69 | Draw 4.35 | Alaves 5.56. The model has a clear lean to Celta Vigo (59%) — a 41pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.

Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 53% | BTTS probability 52% | Total xG 2.81. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 53%/47% — the total xG of 2.81 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 52% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.

Picks & Verdict

On the Poisson output, Celta Vigo are the pick at 59% — clear model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 23% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.

On the goals line, Poisson's 2.81 combined xG gives a 53% probability to Over 2.5 — reasonable, supported by form averaging 2.8 goals per game.

The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 52%. Form rates corroborate: Celta Vigo 60% | Alaves 50% BTTS from recent games.

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