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Poisson model rates Osasuna at 48%, yet other data sources diverge — this Osasuna vs Girona fixture contains genuine analytical tension.

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Analysis

Girona make the trip to Estadio El Sadar to face Osasuna in La Liga, Regular Season - 29. The match kicks off on Saturday 21 March 2026 at 17:30 UTC.

Current Form

Osasuna's overall La Liga record this term: 4W 3D 3L from 10 games (1.50 PPG). Last five: D W L D L. Offensively they are averaging 1.50 goals per game, with 1.40 conceded. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.

Osasuna at Estadio El Sadar this season: 5W 3D 2L from 10 home games — 1.80 PPG on home soil. They are averaging 2.00 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. Both teams have scored in 80% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.

Girona (all games): 4W 4D 2L across 10 La Liga outings this term — 1.60 points per game. Last five: W D L D W. Their scoring rate of 1.40 per game is modest, conceding 0.90 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.

Girona away from home this season: 3W 4D 3L from 10 away games — 1.30 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 1.20 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.

Neither side holds a meaningful form edge. The 1.50 vs 1.60 PPG split is negligible — model and market signals should carry more analytical weight for this one.

The BTTS picture is exceptionally clear (using home/away splits) — Osasuna register both teams scoring in 80% of relevant games, Girona in 70%. Both sides above 70% makes BTTS Yes one of the strongest standalone angles in this fixture.

Head-to-Head

Neither side has dominated this fixture. The last 7 head-to-head meetings have produced 2 wins for Osasuna, 4 for Girona and 1 draws — an even split that leaves the H2H largely neutral as a betting input.

Attacking output has been a hallmark of this fixture. At 3.0 goals per game across 7 meetings, the Over 2.5 has a statistically grounded case from the head-to-head record alone. The most recent clash, on 10 Jan 2026, ended 0–1 with Girona winning.

With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.

Trading

Osasuna half-time and goal-timing data (66 games, 32 at home): they score before half-time in 94% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 77% of the time; BTTS occurs in 72% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 59% of games (home games).

Girona half-time and goal-timing data (66 games, 32 at away): they score before half-time in 72% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 88% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 59% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 59% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 47% of games (away games).

BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Osasuna 58% versus Girona 56%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Osasuna 46% | Girona 54%).

Poisson Model

The Poisson distribution model projects Osasuna 1.74 xG and Girona 1.26 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Osasuna attack 1.135 / defence 1.141 | Girona attack 0.985 / defence 0.986. League average goals — home 1.553 / away 1.125. Data: 66 Osasuna games / 66 Girona games used (CurrentSeason).

Result probabilities: Osasuna 48% | Draw 25% | Girona 27%. Fair-value odds: Osasuna 2.08 | Draw 4.00 | Girona 3.70. Osasuna hold a narrow Poisson edge at 48% — the draw (25%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.

Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 58% | BTTS probability 60% | Total xG 3.00. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 58% — the 3.00 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 60% reflects that both xG figures (1.74 / 1.26) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.

Verdict

The Poisson model's primary lean is Osasuna at 48% — moderate model lean. Draw probability of 25% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Osasuna if the outright odds are short.

Poisson projects 3.00 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 58% probability — strong conviction, supported by form averaging 3.0 goals per game and H2H averaging 3.0 goals per meeting.

On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 60% on Yes. Form rates corroborate: Osasuna 80% | Girona 70% BTTS from recent games.

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