Girona 1-0 Villarreal – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Girona at 43%, yet other data sources diverge — this Girona vs Villarreal fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
Girona and Villarreal meet at Estadio Municipal de Montilivi in La Liga, Regular Season - 30. This fixture gets under way on Monday 6 April 2026 at 20:00 UTC.
Form & Momentum
Girona have collected 1.30 PPG across 10 La Liga outings this season: 3W 4D 3L. Last five: D L D W L. They are averaging 1.30 goals per game and conceding 1.00 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.
At home at Estadio Municipal de Montilivi, Girona have gone 5W 3D 2L this season (10 games, 1.80 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.50 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture. Their home PPG of 1.80 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.30 — Girona are significantly better at Estadio Municipal de Montilivi than their overall form suggests.
Villarreal (all games): 5W 2D 3L across 10 La Liga outings this term — 1.70 points per game. Last five: W L W D W. They are scoring at 1.70 per game and conceding 1.50. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches this season — one of the stronger BTTS rates in the division, making Yes a well-evidenced play.
Villarreal's away record: 5W 2D 3L from 10 road trips in La Liga this season (1.70 PPG). Away from home they average 1.60 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
A near-identical PPG reading — 1.30 for Girona, 1.70 for Villarreal — means the form record is uninstructive on result selection. The goals and market sections will carry greater evidential weight.
In terms of goals, both squads have been finding the net consistently (using home/away splits) — Girona have seen both teams score in 60% of their games, Villarreal in 60%. That combined rate is a strong statistical case for BTTS Yes as a standalone play.
Head-to-Head
The head-to-head ledger leans to Villarreal, who have claimed 5 wins from 7 meetings compared to 1 for the hosts, with 1 draws.
The 7 previous meetings have averaged 2.6 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 24 Aug 2025, ended 0–5 with Villarreal winning.
It is worth noting that Villarreal have a superior record in this fixture despite their visitor status — 5 wins from 7 meetings. Home advantage alone is not a sufficient reason to dismiss that track record.
Trading Data
Girona goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (67 games, 33 at home): they score before half-time in 76% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 89% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 56% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 52% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 64% of games (home games).
Villarreal goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (67 games, 33 at away): they score before half-time in 76% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 92% of the time; BTTS occurs in 64% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 54% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 36%.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Girona 55% versus Villarreal 64%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Girona 54% | Villarreal 63%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Girona 1.50 xG and Villarreal 1.27 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Girona attack 0.954 / defence 1.022 | Villarreal attack 1.098 / defence 1.006. League average goals — home 1.564 / away 1.131. Data: 67 Girona games / 67 Villarreal games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Girona 43% | Draw 25% | Villarreal 32%. Fair-value odds: Girona 2.33 | Draw 4.00 | Villarreal 3.12. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 25% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 52% | BTTS probability 56% | Total xG 2.77. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 52%/48% — the total xG of 2.77 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 56% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Girona at 43% — marginal model lean. Draw probability of 25% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Girona if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 32% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 2.77 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 52% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by form averaging 2.9 goals per game.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 56% on Yes. Form rates corroborate: Girona 60% | Villarreal 60% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 32% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Girona vs Villarreal | Competition: La Liga, Regular Season - 30 | Venue: Estadio Municipal de Montilivi • Kick-off: Monday 6 Apr 2026, 20:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Girona 43% | Draw 25% | Villarreal 32% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 52% | BTTS 56% | xG Girona 1.50 / Villarreal 1.27 • Poisson strength factors: Girona attack 0.954 / def 1.022 | Villarreal attack 1.098 / def 1.006 | league avg home 1.564 / away 1.131 • Poisson stance: Girona (43%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.50
Girona xG
Expected Goals
1.27
Villarreal xG
56%
BTTS
76%
Over 1.5
52%
Over 2.5
30%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Girona vs Villarreal kick off?
Girona vs Villarreal kicked off at 20:00 on Monday 6 April 2026 at Estadio Municipal de Montilivi.
What was the final score in Girona vs Villarreal?
Girona 1 - 0 Villarreal.
Where is Girona vs Villarreal being played?
The match is being played at Estadio Municipal de Montilivi.
What competition is Girona vs Villarreal part of?
Girona vs Villarreal is a Regular Season - 30 fixture in the La Liga (Spain).
Who is favourite to win Girona vs Villarreal?
Our statistical model gives Girona a 43% chance of winning, Villarreal a 32% chance, and a 25% chance of a draw — making Girona the favourite.
Will both teams score in Girona vs Villarreal?
Our model estimates a 56% probability that both Girona and Villarreal will score (BTTS).
Will Girona vs Villarreal have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 52%.
What is the head-to-head record between Girona and Villarreal?
Record (7 meetings): Girona 1W | Draws 1 | Villarreal 5W.
What form are Girona and Villarreal in?
Girona (all comps): 3W-4D-3L in 10 | 1.30 PPG | GF 1.30 / GA 1.00 | L5 D-L-D-W-L. Villarreal (all comps): 5W-2D-3L in 10 | 1.70 PPG | GF 1.70 / GA 1.50 | L5 W-L-W-D-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Working from Girona's attack rating (0.95) and Villarreal's defence rating (1.01), the model arrives at 1.50 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — Villarreal's attack (1.10x) against Girona's defence (1.02x) — and the away total comes out at 1.27.
These ratings are built from 67/67 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 13.5%. Close behind: 2-1 (9.0%), 1-0 (7.9%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 30% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Girona Win
43%
2.35
25%
3.94
32%
3.12
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.9%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
9.4%
Home win
2 – 1
9.0%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.50
Girona xG
Total xG
2.77
1.27
Villarreal xG
2.35
43%
Home win
3.94
25%
Draw
3.12
32%
Away win
Goals Markets
76%
Over 1.5
1.32
24%
Under 1.5
4.17
52%
Over 2.5
1.92
48%
Under 2.5
2.08
30%
Over 3.5
3.33
70%
Under 3.5
1.43
15%
Over 4.5
6.67
85%
Under 4.5
1.18
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
56%
BTTS Yes
1.79
44%
BTTS No
2.27
Clean Sheet
28%
3.56
22%
4.49
Win to Nil
12%
8.35
7%
14.00
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.3 | 8.0 | 5.0 | 2.1 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 9.4 | 11.9 | 7.6 | 3.2 | 1.0 | 0.3 |
| 2 | 7.1 | 9.0 | 5.7 | 2.4 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 3.5 | 4.5 | 2.8 | 1.2 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.3 | 1.7 | 1.1 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.4 | 0.5 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Girona vs Villarreal?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.5%.
How many goals are Girona and Villarreal expected to score?
The model projects 1.50 expected goals for Girona and 1.27 for Villarreal, a combined total of 2.77.
How confident is the prediction model for Girona vs Villarreal?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 43%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Across their last 67 outings, Girona have picked up 1.12 PPG on a 19W 18D 30L record — D-L-D-W-L across the most recent five.
Villarreal's form line: 38W 14D 15L from 67 games, 1.91 PPG, last five W-L-W-D-W.
Put side by side, Villarreal are the form team by 0.79 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against Girona.
How They Fare by Venue
On home soil, Girona have posted 1.30 PPG from 33 outings (12W 7D 14L).
On the road, Villarreal have gone 17W 6D 10L from 33 away games — 1.73 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Villarreal come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Attack vs Defence
Girona are averaging 1.12 goals scored and 1.55 conceded per game recently; Villarreal are on 1.87 scored and 1.27 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Villarreal in 64%.
Last 67 Results — La Liga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Girona
Current Season
Villarreal
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Girona and Villarreal in coming into this match?
Girona have gone 19W 18D 30L in their last 67 games (1.12 PPG), while Villarreal have gone 38W 14D 15L in their last 67 (1.91 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Girona at home or Villarreal away?
Villarreal's away record (1.73 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Girona at home: 1.30 PPG; Villarreal away: 1.73 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 8 times that we have on record, stretching back to January 2023 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 3 years. Every recorded meeting has come in La Liga. They last met on 6 April 2026, roughly 5 months ago.
Notable Numbers
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Villarreal won 5-0 on 24 Aug 2025, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Girona have gone 1W 0D 3L from 4 meetings on their own ground against Villarreal — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 8 Meetings
2
Girona
1
Draws
5
Villarreal
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Girona and Villarreal?
From 8 meetings on record, Girona have won 2, Villarreal have won 5, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Girona and Villarreal last play each other?
They last met on 6 April 2026, when Girona 1-0 Villarreal.
Who has won more matches between Girona and Villarreal?
Villarreal have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from 8 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Girona are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 76% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 36% of the time.
Villarreal are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 76% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 27% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 12% of those situations.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Girona 52%, Villarreal 64% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 64% (Girona) and 54% (Villarreal). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 30% and 24% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Girona have failed to score in 30% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Girona home games / Villarreal away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Girona play Villarreal?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 52% of Girona's games and 64% of Villarreal's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Girona vs Villarreal usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 64% of Girona's matches and 54% of Villarreal's.
Do Girona and Villarreal tend to score early?
Girona have had a goal before half-time in 76% of their recent matches, Villarreal in 76% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Girona edge out Villarreal 1-0.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Girona beat Villarreal 1-0 at Estadio Municipal de Montilivi, Regular Season - 30, in the La Liga. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Girona 1.50 xG and Villarreal 1.27 xG, a combined 2.77. The scoreboard read 1-0 for 1 actual goal. Villarreal landed 1.3 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Girona attack 0.95 / defence 1.02 against Villarreal attack 1.10 / defence 1.01, drawn from 67/67 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Girona 43% | Draw 25% | Villarreal 32%, with Girona to win its most likely call at 43%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 52%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 76% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 56% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 58% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Girona 54%, Villarreal 63%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 60%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Girona's trading profile (67 games, 33 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 55% of their matches — today it did not.
Villarreal's trading profile (67 games, 33 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 64% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
On form, Villarreal arrived the stronger side — 1.91 PPG against 1.12. Form was overturned, with Girona winning despite arriving in poorer recent shape. Girona (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.55 average — tighter than their form line. Villarreal (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.45 scoring average — below par going forward.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.