🎯

Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

📋

Poisson model rates Girona at 43%, yet other data sources diverge — this Girona vs Villarreal fixture contains genuine analytical tension.

✍️ Match Preview

Pre-Match Analysis

Girona and Villarreal meet at Estadio Municipal de Montilivi in La Liga, Regular Season - 30. This fixture gets under way on Monday 6 April 2026 at 20:00 UTC.

Form & Momentum

Girona have collected 1.30 PPG across 10 La Liga outings this season: 3W 4D 3L. Last five: D L D W L. They are averaging 1.30 goals per game and conceding 1.00 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.

At home at Estadio Municipal de Montilivi, Girona have gone 5W 3D 2L this season (10 games, 1.80 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.50 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture. Their home PPG of 1.80 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.30 — Girona are significantly better at Estadio Municipal de Montilivi than their overall form suggests.

Villarreal (all games): 5W 2D 3L across 10 La Liga outings this term — 1.70 points per game. Last five: W L W D W. They are scoring at 1.70 per game and conceding 1.50. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches this season — one of the stronger BTTS rates in the division, making Yes a well-evidenced play.

Villarreal's away record: 5W 2D 3L from 10 road trips in La Liga this season (1.70 PPG). Away from home they average 1.60 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.

A near-identical PPG reading — 1.30 for Girona, 1.70 for Villarreal — means the form record is uninstructive on result selection. The goals and market sections will carry greater evidential weight.

In terms of goals, both squads have been finding the net consistently (using home/away splits) — Girona have seen both teams score in 60% of their games, Villarreal in 60%. That combined rate is a strong statistical case for BTTS Yes as a standalone play.

Head-to-Head

The head-to-head ledger leans to Villarreal, who have claimed 5 wins from 7 meetings compared to 1 for the hosts, with 1 draws.

The 7 previous meetings have averaged 2.6 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 24 Aug 2025, ended 0–5 with Villarreal winning.

It is worth noting that Villarreal have a superior record in this fixture despite their visitor status — 5 wins from 7 meetings. Home advantage alone is not a sufficient reason to dismiss that track record.

Trading Data

Girona goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (67 games, 33 at home): they score before half-time in 76% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 89% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 56% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 52% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 64% of games (home games).

Villarreal goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (67 games, 33 at away): they score before half-time in 76% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 92% of the time; BTTS occurs in 64% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 54% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 36%.

BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Girona 55% versus Villarreal 64%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Girona 54% | Villarreal 63%).

Poisson Model

The Poisson distribution model projects Girona 1.50 xG and Villarreal 1.27 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Girona attack 0.954 / defence 1.022 | Villarreal attack 1.098 / defence 1.006. League average goals — home 1.564 / away 1.131. Data: 67 Girona games / 67 Villarreal games used (CurrentSeason).

Result probabilities: Girona 43% | Draw 25% | Villarreal 32%. Fair-value odds: Girona 2.33 | Draw 4.00 | Villarreal 3.12. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 25% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.

Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 52% | BTTS probability 56% | Total xG 2.77. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 52%/48% — the total xG of 2.77 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 56% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.

Verdict

The Poisson model's primary lean is Girona at 43% — marginal model lean. Draw probability of 25% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Girona if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 32% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.

Poisson projects 2.77 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 52% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by form averaging 2.9 goals per game.

On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 56% on Yes. Form rates corroborate: Girona 60% | Villarreal 60% BTTS from recent games.

The outsider holds a 32% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.

🔮 Your Prediction

Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.

💡 Key Insights