NEOM 1-0 Al-Fayha – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Al-Fayha at 46% — recent form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this NEOM vs Al-Fayha encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
Al-Fayha travel to King Khalid Sports City to take on NEOM in Pro League (matchday 27). The game is scheduled for Saturday 4 April 2026 at 18:30 UK time.
Form Analysis
Looking at their last 10 matches, NEOM stand at 3W 3D 4L — 1.20 PPG. Last five: W D L L D. They are averaging 1.00 goals per game and conceding 1.10 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings (30%).
NEOM's form when playing at home: 3W 1D 6L across their last 10 home games (1.00 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.20 goals scored and 1.70 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
Across their last 10 games, Al-Fayha have recorded 6W 1D 3L — 1.90 PPG. Last five: W D L W W. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.00 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity.
Al-Fayha's away record over their last 10 away games: 2W 1D 7L (0.70 PPG). Away from home they average 1.40 goals scored and 2.20 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context. Their away PPG of 0.70 is notably below their overall 1.90 — form away from home has been a clear weakness recently.
Despite the home advantage, the form figures favour Al-Fayha — 0.70 PPG ahead of the hosts (1.90 vs 1.20). That gap is large enough to take seriously. Draw No Bet on the visitors neutralises home-ground risk while maintaining the form-backed selection.
The BTTS market is worth targeting here. Both teams have scored in 60% of NEOM's games and 60% of Al-Fayha's (from NEOM's last 10 home games and Al-Fayha's last 10 away games) — both sides above the 60% threshold gives BTTS Yes firm statistical grounding.
H2H Record
There is little to separate the sides in our head-to-head data. From 1 H2H match, NEOM have won 0, Al-Fayha 0, with 1 draw — a balanced record that offers no clear steer on its own. With only 1 H2H match to go on, treat this as a light input.
The 1 H2H match in our data averaged 2.0 goals per game — a neutral rate that gives no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent of those, on 25 Feb 2026, ended NEOM 1–1 Al-Fayha — a draw.
The head-to-head data offers no strong steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the model and current market pricing should carry more weight for this fixture.
In-Play Data
NEOM trading profile (last 26 games, 13 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 69% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 90% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; of the 8 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 38%; BTTS occurs in 62% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 69% of games (home games).
Al-Fayha trading profile (last 26 games, 13 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 85% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 67% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 67% of those occasions; of the 9 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 33%; BTTS occurs in 62% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 77% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — NEOM 62% versus Al-Fayha 54%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (NEOM 54% | Al-Fayha 58%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects NEOM 1.42 xG and Al-Fayha 1.77 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: NEOM attack 0.806 / defence 1.129 | Al-Fayha attack 1.093 / defence 1.153. League average goals — home 1.532 / away 1.433. Data: built from NEOM's last 26 games and Al-Fayha's last 60.
Result probabilities: NEOM 31% | Draw 24% | Al-Fayha 46%. Fair-value odds: NEOM 3.24 | Draw 4.25 | Al-Fayha 2.19. Al-Fayha hold a narrow Poisson edge at 46% — the draw (24%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 62% | BTTS Yes probability 63% | Total xG 3.19. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 62% — the 3.19 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 63% — both xG figures (1.42 / 1.77) are high enough that each side is projected to find the net.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Al-Fayha are the pick at 46% — moderate model lean. Recent form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 24% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Al-Fayha offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 31% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 3.19 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 62% — reasonable conviction, supported by recent form (NEOM's last 10 home games and Al-Fayha's last 10 away games) averaging 3.2 goals per game.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 63% on Yes. Form rates corroborate — both teams scored in: NEOM 60% (last 10 home games) | Al-Fayha 60% (last 10 away games).
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: NEOM vs Al-Fayha | Competition: Pro League, matchday 27 | Venue: King Khalid Sports City • Kick-off: Saturday 4 April 2026 at 18:30 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: NEOM 31% | Draw 24% | Al-Fayha 46% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 62% (Under 38%) | BTTS Yes 63% (No 37%) | xG NEOM 1.42 / Al-Fayha 1.77 • Poisson strength factors: NEOM attack 0.806 / def 1.129 | Al-Fayha attack 1.093 / def 1.153 | league avg home 1.532 / away 1.433 • Poisson stance: Al-Fayha (46%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.42
NEOM xG
Expected Goals
1.77
Al-Fayha xG
63%
BTTS
83%
Over 1.5
62%
Over 2.5
40%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ NEOM vs Al-Fayha FAQs
What time does NEOM vs Al-Fayha kick off?
NEOM vs Al-Fayha kicked off at 18:30 UK time on Saturday 4 April 2026 at King Khalid Sports City.
What was the final score in NEOM vs Al-Fayha?
NEOM 1 - 0 Al-Fayha.
Where is NEOM vs Al-Fayha being played?
The match is being played at King Khalid Sports City.
What competition is NEOM vs Al-Fayha part of?
NEOM vs Al-Fayha is a Pro League fixture (matchday 27) (Saudi-Arabia).
Who is favourite to win NEOM vs Al-Fayha?
Our statistical model gives NEOM a 31% chance of winning, Al-Fayha a 46% chance, and a 24% chance of a draw — making Al-Fayha the favourite.
Will both teams score in NEOM vs Al-Fayha?
Our model estimates a 63% probability that both NEOM and Al-Fayha will score, so it leans towards BTTS Yes.
Will NEOM vs Al-Fayha have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 62%, so it leans towards over 2.5 goals.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
NEOM's attacking strength (0.81x league average) is weighed against Al-Fayha's defensive record (1.15x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.42. The same calculation in reverse, Al-Fayha's attack versus NEOM's defence, projects 1.77 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from NEOM's last 26 games and Al-Fayha's last 60 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 11.7%. Close behind: 1-2 (9.1%), 2-1 (7.4%). Together the top three scorelines make up 28% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Al-Fayha Win
31%
3.24
24%
4.25
46%
2.19
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
10.3%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 2
9.1%
Away win
2 – 1
7.4%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.42
NEOM xG
Total xG
3.19
1.77
Al-Fayha xG
3.24
31%
Home win
4.25
24%
Draw
2.19
46%
Away win
Goals Markets
83%
Over 1.5
1.20
17%
Under 1.5
5.88
62%
Over 2.5
1.61
38%
Under 2.5
2.63
40%
Over 3.5
2.50
60%
Under 3.5
1.67
22%
Over 4.5
4.55
78%
Under 4.5
1.28
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
63%
BTTS Yes
1.58
37%
BTTS No
2.72
Clean Sheet
17%
5.86
24%
4.15
Win to Nil
5%
19.00
11%
9.10
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4.1 | 7.3 | 6.4 | 3.8 | 1.7 | 0.6 |
| 1 | 5.8 | 10.3 | 9.1 | 5.4 | 2.4 | 0.8 |
| 2 | 4.2 | 7.4 | 6.5 | 3.8 | 1.7 | 0.6 |
| 3 | 2.0 | 3.5 | 3.1 | 1.8 | 0.8 | 0.3 |
| 4 | 0.7 | 1.2 | 1.1 | 0.6 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.4 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ NEOM vs Al-Fayha Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for NEOM vs Al-Fayha?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 11.7%.
How many goals are NEOM and Al-Fayha expected to score?
The model projects 1.42 expected goals for NEOM and 1.77 for Al-Fayha, a combined total of 3.19.
How confident is the prediction model for NEOM vs Al-Fayha?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 46%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Across their last 26 outings, NEOM have picked up 1.27 PPG on a 9W 6D 11L record — W-D-L-L-D across the most recent five.
Al-Fayha's form line: 9W 6D 11L from 26 games, 1.27 PPG, last five W-D-L-W-W.
Form-wise this is close to level: NEOM on 1.27 PPG, Al-Fayha on 1.27. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
On home soil, NEOM have posted 1.08 PPG from their last 13 home games (4W 2D 7L).
On the road, Al-Fayha have gone 4W 1D 8L from their last 13 away games — 1.00 PPG when travelling.
Goals in Recent Form
NEOM are averaging 1.19 goals scored and 1.38 conceded per game recently; Al-Fayha are on 1.31 scored and 1.58 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: NEOM have seen both teams score in 62% of their recent games.
Last 26 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
NEOM
Blended
Al-Fayha
Blended
NEOM (Home) vs Al-Fayha (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
NEOM
Blended
Al-Fayha
Blended
❓ NEOM vs Al-Fayha Form FAQs
What form are NEOM and Al-Fayha in coming into this match?
NEOM have gone 9W 6D 11L in their last 26 games (1.27 PPG), while Al-Fayha have gone 9W 6D 11L in their last 26 (1.27 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — NEOM at home or Al-Fayha away?
NEOM's home record (1.08 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — NEOM at home: 1.08 PPG; Al-Fayha away: 1.00 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
This section is based on the 3 H2H matches we hold for this pairing, spanning roughly 1 year from February 2026. All of them came in Pro League. The most recent was as recently as 14 August 2026, so it is a fresh reference point.
Streaks & Records
NEOM have won each of the latest 2 H2H matches we hold, a run that gives them the edge coming in.
NEOM's record when hosting Al-Fayha specifically: 2W 0D 0L from 2 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 3 Meetings
2
NEOM
1
Draws
0
Al-Fayha
Recent Meetings
❓ NEOM vs Al-Fayha H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between NEOM and Al-Fayha?
Across the 3 head-to-head matches in our data, NEOM have won 2, Al-Fayha have won 0, and 1 has been drawn.
When did NEOM and Al-Fayha last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 14 August 2026: NEOM 2-1 Al-Fayha.
Who has won more matches between NEOM and Al-Fayha?
NEOM have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from the 3 head-to-head matches in our data.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
NEOM are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 69% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 31% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 50% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
Al-Fayha are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 85% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 31% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 25% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — NEOM 62%, Al-Fayha 62% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 69% for NEOM and 77% for Al-Fayha. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 31% and 38% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Al-Fayha in 31%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = NEOM home games / Al-Fayha away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ NEOM vs Al-Fayha Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in NEOM and Al-Fayha matches?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 62% of NEOM's games and 62% of Al-Fayha's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Are NEOM and Al-Fayha matches usually high-scoring?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 69% of NEOM's matches and 77% of Al-Fayha's.
Do NEOM and Al-Fayha matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 69% of NEOM's recent matches and 85% of Al-Fayha's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as NEOM defy the odds to beat Al-Fayha 1-0.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
NEOM beat Al-Fayha 1-0 at King Khalid Sports City, Regular Season - 27, in the Pro League. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting NEOM 1.42 xG and Al-Fayha 1.77 xG, a combined 3.19. The scoreboard read 1-0 for 1 actual goal. Al-Fayha landed 1.8 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of NEOM attack 0.81 / defence 1.13 against Al-Fayha attack 1.09 / defence 1.15, drawn from 26/60 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it NEOM 31% | Draw 24% | Al-Fayha 46%, with Al-Fayha to win its most likely call at 46%. The actual NEOM win had been the model's second-ranked read at 31%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 62%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 83% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 63% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 56% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (NEOM 54%, Al-Fayha 58%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 58%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
NEOM's trading profile (26 games, 13 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 62% of their matches — today it did not.
Al-Fayha's trading profile (26 games, 13 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 54% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 27% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — NEOM 1.27 PPG, Al-Fayha 1.27 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the NEOM win broke the near-deadlock. NEOM (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.62 average — tighter than their form line. Al-Fayha (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.38 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 1 against a 2.08 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.