Damac 1-1 Al-Qadisiyah FC – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Al-Qadisiyah FC at 50% — recent form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Damac vs Al-Qadisiyah FC encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
Damac welcome Al-Qadisiyah FC to Prince Sultan bin Abdul Aziz Stadium in Pro League (matchday 28). Kick-off is Thursday 9 April 2026 at 18:00 UK time.
Form Analysis
Looking at their last 10 matches, Damac stand at 3W 2D 5L — 1.10 PPG. Last five: L D W W L. They are averaging 1.00 goals per game and conceding 1.50 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings (20%).
Damac's home record over their last 10 home games: 2W 4D 4L (1.00 PPG). At home they are averaging 0.90 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per game.
Al-Qadisiyah FC — last 10 games: 6W 3D 1L — 2.10 PPG. Last five: W D W W L. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.30 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings (30%). Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.
Al-Qadisiyah FC's form when playing away from home: 7W 0D 3L across their last 10 road games (2.10 PPG). They are averaging 2.50 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support. Both teams have scored in 80% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
Form points away from home here. Al-Qadisiyah FC's 2.10 PPG return is 1.00 points per game ahead of Damac's 1.10 — the visitors are the form-based selection, and Double Chance is an alternative worth pricing if the outright looks tight.
Head to Head
The H2H picture is flat: the 3 H2H matches we hold have produced 1 wins for Damac, 1 for Al-Qadisiyah FC and 1 draw. Form and model data should carry more weight here. With only 3 H2H matches to go on, treat this as a light input.
The 3 H2H matches in our data averaged 2.0 goals per game — a neutral rate that gives no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent of those, on 27 Dec 2025, ended Damac 1–1 Al-Qadisiyah FC — a draw.
The head-to-head data offers no strong steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the model and current market pricing should carry more weight for this fixture.
In-Play Data
Damac trading profile (last 61 games, 30 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 67% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 72% of the time; of the 9 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 33%; BTTS occurs in 57% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 53% of games (home games); they fail to score in 34% of games.
Al-Qadisiyah FC trading profile (last 61 games, 30 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 73% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 87% of the time; of the 10 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 30%; BTTS occurs in 60% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 60% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Damac 56% versus Al-Qadisiyah FC 56%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Damac 51% | Al-Qadisiyah FC 57%). There is an in-play dynamic worth noting: Damac surrender their half-time lead 33% of the time, while Al-Qadisiyah FC have come from behind at the break to draw or win in 30% of cases — a combination that makes laying the hosts at HT a potential angle.
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Damac 1.23 xG and Al-Qadisiyah FC 1.79 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Damac attack 0.790 / defence 0.892 | Al-Qadisiyah FC attack 1.405 / defence 0.983. League average goals — home 1.586 / away 1.428. Damac's attack rating of 0.790 is below the league average, which holds their xG down at 1.23. Al-Qadisiyah FC have an above-average attack rating of 1.405, which lifts their away xG to 1.79. Data: built from Damac's last 61 games and Al-Qadisiyah FC's last 61.
Result probabilities: Damac 26% | Draw 23% | Al-Qadisiyah FC 50%. Fair-value odds: Damac 3.80 | Draw 4.31 | Al-Qadisiyah FC 1.98. Al-Qadisiyah FC hold a narrow Poisson edge at 50% — the draw (23%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 58% | BTTS Yes probability 59% | Total xG 3.02. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 58% — the 3.02 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 59% is only a slight lean — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Al-Qadisiyah FC as the most likely outcome at 50% — moderate model lean. Recent form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 23% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Al-Qadisiyah FC offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
The Poisson model projects 3.02 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 58% — reasonable conviction, supported by recent form (Damac's last 10 home games and Al-Qadisiyah FC's last 10 away games) averaging 3.0 goals per game.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 59% on Yes. Form rates corroborate — both teams scored in: Damac 50% (last 10 home games) | Al-Qadisiyah FC 80% (last 10 away games).
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Damac vs Al-Qadisiyah FC | Competition: Pro League, matchday 28 | Venue: Prince Sultan bin Abdul Aziz Stadium • Kick-off: Thursday 9 April 2026 at 18:00 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Damac 26% | Draw 23% | Al-Qadisiyah FC 50% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 58% (Under 42%) | BTTS Yes 59% (No 41%) | xG Damac 1.23 / Al-Qadisiyah FC 1.79 • Poisson strength factors: Damac attack 0.790 / def 0.892 | Al-Qadisiyah FC attack 1.405 / def 0.983 | league avg home 1.586 / away 1.428 • Poisson stance: Al-Qadisiyah FC (50%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.23
Damac xG
Expected Goals
1.79
Al-Qadisiyah FC xG
59%
BTTS
80%
Over 1.5
58%
Over 2.5
36%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Damac vs Al-Qadisiyah FC FAQs
What time does Damac vs Al-Qadisiyah FC kick off?
Damac vs Al-Qadisiyah FC kicked off at 18:00 UK time on Thursday 9 April 2026 at Prince Sultan bin Abdul Aziz Stadium.
What was the final score in Damac vs Al-Qadisiyah FC?
Damac 1 - 1 Al-Qadisiyah FC.
Where is Damac vs Al-Qadisiyah FC being played?
The match is being played at Prince Sultan bin Abdul Aziz Stadium.
What competition is Damac vs Al-Qadisiyah FC part of?
Damac vs Al-Qadisiyah FC is a Pro League fixture (matchday 28) (Saudi-Arabia).
Who is favourite to win Damac vs Al-Qadisiyah FC?
Our statistical model gives Damac a 26% chance of winning, Al-Qadisiyah FC a 50% chance, and a 23% chance of a draw — making Al-Qadisiyah FC the favourite.
Will both teams score in Damac vs Al-Qadisiyah FC?
Our model estimates a 59% probability that both Damac and Al-Qadisiyah FC will score, so it leans towards BTTS Yes.
Will Damac vs Al-Qadisiyah FC have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 58%, so it leans towards over 2.5 goals.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Working from Damac's attack rating (0.79) and Al-Qadisiyah FC's defence rating (0.98), the model arrives at 1.23 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Al-Qadisiyah FC's attack versus Damac's defence, projects 1.79 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from Damac's last 61 games and Al-Qadisiyah FC's last 61 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 12.1%. Close behind: 1-2 (9.6%), 0-2 (7.8%). Together the top three scorelines make up 30% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Al-Qadisiyah FC Win
26%
3.80
23%
4.31
50%
1.98
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
10.7%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 2
9.6%
Away win
0 – 1
8.7%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.23
Damac xG
Total xG
3.02
1.79
Al-Qadisiyah FC xG
3.80
26%
Home win
4.31
23%
Draw
1.98
50%
Away win
Goals Markets
80%
Over 1.5
1.25
20%
Under 1.5
5.00
58%
Over 2.5
1.72
42%
Under 2.5
2.38
36%
Over 3.5
2.78
64%
Under 3.5
1.56
19%
Over 4.5
5.26
81%
Under 4.5
1.23
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
59%
BTTS Yes
1.69
41%
BTTS No
2.44
Clean Sheet
17%
6.00
29%
3.43
Win to Nil
4%
22.78
15%
6.80
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4.9 | 8.7 | 7.8 | 4.7 | 2.1 | 0.7 |
| 1 | 6.0 | 10.7 | 9.6 | 5.7 | 2.6 | 0.9 |
| 2 | 3.7 | 6.6 | 5.9 | 3.5 | 1.6 | 0.6 |
| 3 | 1.5 | 2.7 | 2.4 | 1.5 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 0.5 | 0.8 | 0.8 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Damac vs Al-Qadisiyah FC Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for Damac vs Al-Qadisiyah FC?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.1%.
How many goals are Damac and Al-Qadisiyah FC expected to score?
The model projects 1.23 expected goals for Damac and 1.79 for Al-Qadisiyah FC, a combined total of 3.02.
How confident is the prediction model for Damac vs Al-Qadisiyah FC?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 50%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Damac come into this having played 61 games, going 13W 18D 30L for 0.93 points per game. Their last five reads L-D-W-W-L.
On the other side, Al-Qadisiyah FC sit at 2.10 PPG from 61 outings (39W 11D 11L), a run that reads W-D-W-W-L across their last five.
Al-Qadisiyah FC carry the stronger recent form of the two, 1.17 PPG clear of Damac — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
Home Ground vs the Road
Damac's home form reads 8W 9D 13L across their last 30 home games, a 1.10 PPG return.
Away from home, Al-Qadisiyah FC have taken 1.83 points per game from their last 30 away games (17W 4D 9L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Al-Qadisiyah FC come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
Damac are averaging 1.00 goals scored and 1.56 conceded per game recently; Al-Qadisiyah FC are on 1.92 scored and 0.97 conceded.
Defensively: Al-Qadisiyah FC in 36% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 61 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Damac
Blended
Al-Qadisiyah FC
Blended
Damac (Home) vs Al-Qadisiyah FC (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
Damac
Blended
Al-Qadisiyah FC
Blended
❓ Damac vs Al-Qadisiyah FC Form FAQs
What form are Damac and Al-Qadisiyah FC in coming into this match?
Damac have gone 13W 18D 30L in their last 61 games (0.93 PPG), while Al-Qadisiyah FC have gone 39W 11D 11L in their last 61 (2.10 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Damac at home or Al-Qadisiyah FC away?
Al-Qadisiyah FC's away record (1.83 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Damac at home: 1.10 PPG; Al-Qadisiyah FC away: 1.83 PPG.
Have Damac or Al-Qadisiyah FC been keeping clean sheets recently?
Damac have kept a clean sheet in 18% of their recent games, Al-Qadisiyah FC in 36%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The head-to-head numbers here are drawn from the 4 H2H matches in our data, going back to October 2024. All of them came in Pro League. The most recent was on 9 April 2026, roughly 7 months ago.
Digging Into the Numbers
The most recent 2 H2H matches in our data have all been drawn — an unusually settled run for this fixture.
Damac's record when hosting Al-Qadisiyah FC specifically: 1W 1D 0L from 2 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 4 Meetings
1
Damac
2
Draws
1
Al-Qadisiyah FC
Recent Meetings
❓ Damac vs Al-Qadisiyah FC H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between Damac and Al-Qadisiyah FC?
Across the 4 head-to-head matches in our data, Damac have won 1, Al-Qadisiyah FC have won 1, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Damac and Al-Qadisiyah FC last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 9 April 2026: Damac 1-1 Al-Qadisiyah FC.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Damac are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 67% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 22% of those situations.
Al-Qadisiyah FC are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 73% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 37% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 18% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 29% of those situations.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Damac 57%, Al-Qadisiyah FC 60% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 53% (Damac) and 60% (Al-Qadisiyah FC). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 27% and 37% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Damac have failed to score in 30% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Damac home games / Al-Qadisiyah FC away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Damac vs Al-Qadisiyah FC Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in Damac and Al-Qadisiyah FC matches?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 57% of Damac's games and 60% of Al-Qadisiyah FC's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Are Damac and Al-Qadisiyah FC matches usually high-scoring?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 53% of Damac's matches and 60% of Al-Qadisiyah FC's.
Do Damac and Al-Qadisiyah FC matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 67% of Damac's recent matches and 73% of Al-Qadisiyah FC's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Damac and Al-Qadisiyah FC share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at Prince Sultan bin Abdul Aziz Stadium, Regular Season - 28, as Damac and Al-Qadisiyah FC drew 1-1 in the Pro League. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Damac 1.23 xG and Al-Qadisiyah FC 1.79 xG, a combined 3.02. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Damac attack 0.79 / defence 0.89 against Al-Qadisiyah FC attack 1.41 / defence 0.98, drawn from 61/61 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Damac 26% | Draw 23% | Al-Qadisiyah FC 50%, with Al-Qadisiyah FC to win its most likely call at 50%. Instead the game produced a draw, an outcome the model had rated at just 23% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 58%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 80% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 59% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 54% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Damac 51%, Al-Qadisiyah FC 57%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 56%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Damac's trading profile (61 games, 30 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 56% of their matches — today it did.
Al-Qadisiyah FC's trading profile (61 games, 30 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 56% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 36% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
On form, Al-Qadisiyah FC arrived the stronger side — 2.10 PPG against 0.93. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win. Al-Qadisiyah FC (home/away splits) managed 1 against a 1.80 scoring average — below par going forward.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit), form (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.