Damac 1-2 Al Orubah – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Damac at 59% — neither recent form nor the head-to-head data gives a clear steer either way as Damac face Al Orubah.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
Al Orubah travel to Dhamak Club Stadium to take on Damac in Pro League (matchday 22). The game is scheduled for Monday 24 February 2025 at 15:50 UK time.
Form Analysis
Looking at their last 10 matches, Damac stand at 2W 4D 4L — 1.00 PPG. Last five: W D D D L. They are averaging 1.00 goals per game and conceding 1.50 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings (20%).
At home, Damac have gone 4W 4D 2L in their last 10 home games (1.60 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.60 goals scored and 1.60 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture. Their home PPG of 1.60 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.00 — Damac are significantly better at home than their overall form suggests.
Al Orubah — last 10 games: 3W 1D 6L — 1.00 PPG. Last five: D L W W L. Their scoring rate of 0.70 per game is modest, conceding 1.60 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings (30%). Both teams have scored in only 10% of their fixtures — a very low rate that strongly backs BTTS No.
On the road, Al Orubah have gone 2W 2D 6L in their last 10 away fixtures (0.80 PPG). Away from home they average 0.90 goals scored and 2.10 conceded per game.
The form figures are too closely matched to derive a directional pick: Damac 1.00 PPG, Al Orubah 1.00 PPG. Look to other data sets to build the analysis.
Head to Head
The H2H picture is flat: the 1 H2H match we hold have produced 0 wins for Damac, 1 for Al Orubah and 0 draws. Form and model data should carry more weight here. With only 1 H2H match to go on, treat this as a light input.
Scoring has been limited in the 1 H2H match in our data, averaging 1.0 goals per game, which makes Under 2.5 the head-to-head-backed angle in the goals market. The most recent of those, on 28 Sep 2024, ended Damac 0–1 Al Orubah — a Al Orubah win.
With a balanced win record and just 1.0 goals per game, the H2H data points toward a tight, low-scoring contest — Under 2.5 is the stronger head-to-head angle regardless of which side wins.
In-Play Data
Damac trading profile (last 21 games, 11 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 91% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 67% of the time; of the 4 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 25%; BTTS occurs in 64% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 73% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 38%.
Al Orubah trading profile (last 21 games, 11 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 82% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 80% of the time; BTTS occurs in 36% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 64% of games (away games); they fail to score in 57% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Damac 62% versus Al Orubah 24%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Damac 62% | Al Orubah 48%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Damac 1.80 xG and Al Orubah 0.88 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Damac attack 0.951 / defence 1.098 | Al Orubah attack 0.582 / defence 1.258. League average goals — home 1.507 / away 1.381. Al Orubah's defence rating of 1.258 (above 1 = concedes more than average) is pushing Damac's projected output up. Al Orubah's attack rating of 0.582 is below the league average, which holds their xG down at 0.88. Data: built from Damac's last 55 games and Al Orubah's last 21.
Result probabilities: Damac 59% | Draw 23% | Al Orubah 18%. Fair-value odds: Damac 1.69 | Draw 4.38 | Al Orubah 5.53. The model has a clear lean to Damac (59%) — a 36pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 50% | BTTS Yes probability 49% | Total xG 2.69. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 50%/50% — the total xG of 2.69 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS No at 51% is only a slight lean — the model gives both sides a fair chance of scoring, so No isn't a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Damac at 59% — clear model lean. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 23% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
The Poisson model projects 2.69 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 50% — reasonable conviction, supported by recent form (Damac's last 10 home games and Al Orubah's last 10 away games) averaging 3.1 goals per game.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 51% on No. Form rates are neutral — both teams scored in: Damac 70% (last 10 home games) | Al Orubah 40% (last 10 away games).
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Damac vs Al Orubah | Competition: Pro League, matchday 22 | Venue: Dhamak Club Stadium • Kick-off: Monday 24 February 2025 at 15:50 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Damac 59% | Draw 23% | Al Orubah 18% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 50% (Under 50%) | BTTS Yes 49% (No 51%) | xG Damac 1.80 / Al Orubah 0.88 • Poisson strength factors: Damac attack 0.951 / def 1.098 | Al Orubah attack 0.582 / def 1.258 | league avg home 1.507 / away 1.381 • Poisson stance: Damac (59%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.80
Damac xG
Expected Goals
0.88
Al Orubah xG
49%
BTTS
75%
Over 1.5
50%
Over 2.5
28%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Damac vs Al Orubah FAQs
What time does Damac vs Al Orubah kick off?
Damac vs Al Orubah kicked off at 15:50 UK time on Monday 24 February 2025 at Dhamak Club Stadium.
What was the final score in Damac vs Al Orubah?
Damac 1 - 2 Al Orubah.
Where is Damac vs Al Orubah being played?
The match is being played at Dhamak Club Stadium.
What competition is Damac vs Al Orubah part of?
Damac vs Al Orubah is a Pro League fixture (matchday 22) (Saudi-Arabia).
Who is favourite to win Damac vs Al Orubah?
Our statistical model gives Damac a 59% chance of winning, Al Orubah a 18% chance, and a 23% chance of a draw — making Damac the favourite.
Will both teams score in Damac vs Al Orubah?
Our model estimates a 49% probability that both Damac and Al Orubah will score, so it leans towards BTTS No (51%).
Will Damac vs Al Orubah have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 50% — effectively a coin flip.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Damac's attacking strength (0.95x league average) is weighed against Al Orubah's defensive record (1.26x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.80. The same calculation in reverse, Al Orubah's attack versus Damac's defence, projects 0.88 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from Damac's last 55 games and Al Orubah's last 21 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 12.3%. Close behind: 2-0 (11.1%), 1-0 (10.9%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 34% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Damac Win
59%
1.69
23%
4.38
18%
5.53
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
12.3%
Home win
Most likely
2 – 0
11.1%
Home win
1 – 1
10.9%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.80
Damac xG
Total xG
2.69
0.88
Al Orubah xG
1.69
59%
Home win
4.38
23%
Draw
5.53
18%
Away win
Goals Markets
75%
Over 1.5
1.33
25%
Under 1.5
4.00
50%
Over 2.5
2.00
50%
Under 2.5
2.00
28%
Over 3.5
3.57
72%
Under 3.5
1.39
14%
Over 4.5
7.14
86%
Under 4.5
1.16
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
49%
BTTS Yes
2.04
51%
BTTS No
1.96
Clean Sheet
41%
2.42
16%
6.07
Win to Nil
24%
4.09
3%
33.58
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.8 | 6.0 | 2.7 | 0.8 | 0.2 | – |
| 1 | 12.3 | 10.9 | 4.8 | 1.4 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 11.1 | 9.8 | 4.3 | 1.3 | 0.3 | – |
| 3 | 6.7 | 5.9 | 2.6 | 0.8 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 3.0 | 2.6 | 1.2 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 1.1 | 1.0 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Damac vs Al Orubah Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for Damac vs Al Orubah?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.3%.
How many goals are Damac and Al Orubah expected to score?
The model projects 1.80 expected goals for Damac and 0.88 for Al Orubah, a combined total of 2.69.
How confident is the prediction model for Damac vs Al Orubah?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 59%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Across their last 21 outings, Damac have picked up 1.14 PPG on a 6W 6D 9L record — W-D-D-D-L across the most recent five.
Al Orubah's form line: 6W 2D 13L from 21 games, 0.95 PPG, last five D-L-W-W-L.
Form-wise this is close to level: Damac on 1.14 PPG, Al Orubah on 0.95. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
On home soil, Damac have posted 1.45 PPG from their last 11 home games (4W 4D 3L).
On the road, Al Orubah have gone 2W 2D 7L from their last 11 away games — 0.73 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Damac come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
Damac are averaging 1.33 goals scored and 1.62 conceded per game recently; Al Orubah are on 0.81 scored and 1.90 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Damac have seen both teams score in 62% of their recent games; Al Orubah in 24%.
Last 21 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Damac
Blended
Al Orubah
Blended
Damac (Home) vs Al Orubah (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
Damac
Blended
Al Orubah
Blended
❓ Damac vs Al Orubah Form FAQs
What form are Damac and Al Orubah in coming into this match?
Damac have gone 6W 6D 9L in their last 21 games (1.14 PPG), while Al Orubah have gone 6W 2D 13L in their last 21 (0.95 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Damac at home or Al Orubah away?
Damac's home record (1.45 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Damac at home: 1.45 PPG; Al Orubah away: 0.73 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The head-to-head numbers here are drawn from the 2 H2H matches in our data, going back to September 2024. All of them came in Pro League. The most recent in our data was on 24 February 2025, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Last 2 Meetings
0
Damac
0
Draws
2
Al Orubah
Recent Meetings
❓ Damac vs Al Orubah H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between Damac and Al Orubah?
Across the 2 head-to-head matches in our data, Damac have won 0, Al Orubah have won 2, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Damac and Al Orubah last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 24 February 2025: Damac 1-2 Al Orubah.
Who has won more matches between Damac and Al Orubah?
Al Orubah have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from the 2 head-to-head matches in our data.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Damac are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 91% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 40% of those situations.
Al Orubah are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 82% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 14% of those situations.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Damac 64%, Al Orubah 36% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 73% for Damac and 64% for Al Orubah. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 46% and 36% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Damac have failed to score in 27% of games; Al Orubah in 54%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Damac home games / Al Orubah away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Damac vs Al Orubah Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in Damac and Al Orubah matches?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 64% of Damac's recent matches and 36% of Al Orubah's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Are Damac and Al Orubah matches usually high-scoring?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 73% of Damac's matches and 64% of Al Orubah's.
Do Damac and Al Orubah matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 91% of Damac's recent matches and 82% of Al Orubah's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as Al Orubah defy the odds to beat Damac 1-2.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Al Orubah beat Damac 1-2 at Dhamak Club Stadium, Regular Season - 22, in the Pro League. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Damac 1.80 xG and Al Orubah 0.88 xG, a combined 2.69. The scoreboard read 1-2 for 3 actual goals. Damac fell 0.8 short of their projected output. Al Orubah outscored their 0.88 projection by 1.1. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Damac attack 0.95 / defence 1.10 against Al Orubah attack 0.58 / defence 1.26, drawn from 55/21 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Damac 59% | Draw 23% | Al Orubah 18%, with Damac to win its most likely call at 59%. Instead the game produced a Al Orubah win, an outcome the model had rated at just 18% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 50%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 75% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 49% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 55% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Damac 62%, Al Orubah 48%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 43%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Damac's trading profile (21 games, 11 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 62% of their matches — today it did.
Al Orubah's trading profile (21 games, 11 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 24% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Damac 1.14 PPG, Al Orubah 0.95 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Al Orubah win broke the near-deadlock. Al Orubah (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 0.82 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 1 against a 2.09 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.