Al Taawon 1-1 Al Khaleej Saihat – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model favours Al Taawon (55%) — recent form and the head-to-head data both point the same way as Al Taawon face Al Khaleej Saihat.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
Al Taawon and Al Khaleej Saihat meet at Al Taawon Arena in Pro League (matchday 21). This fixture gets under way on Saturday 7 February 2026 at 15:30 UK time.
Current Form
Al Taawon's record over their last 10 games: 5W 1D 4L (1.60 PPG). Last five: W D L W L. They are averaging 1.20 goals per game and conceding 0.80 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. Defensively, conceding just 0.80 per game is an exceptional defensive record. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their matches, indicating a tendency toward clean sheets or low-scoring outcomes.
In front of their own supporters, Al Taawon have posted 7W 2D 1L from their last 10 home games — 2.30 PPG. They are averaging 2.20 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. 4 home clean sheets from their last 10 home games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground. Their home PPG of 2.30 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.60 — Al Taawon are significantly better at home than their overall form suggests.
Al Khaleej Saihat have collected 1.10 PPG across their last 10 games: 3W 2D 5L. Last five: W L D L L. They are scoring at 1.60 per game and conceding 1.60. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings (20%). Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.
Al Khaleej Saihat's form when playing away from home: 3W 2D 5L across their last 10 road games (1.10 PPG). They are averaging 1.90 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support. Both teams have scored in 100% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
Form favours the hosts. Al Taawon's 1.60 PPG return is 0.50 points per game ahead of Al Khaleej Saihat's 1.10 — a genuine gap in recent results that provides a statistically grounded case for backing the home side.
Head-to-Head
Across the 7 H2H matches in our data, Al Taawon have had the better of this match-up — 4 wins, with Al Khaleej Saihat managing 1 and 2 draws.
Scoring has been limited in the 7 H2H matches in our data, averaging 1.6 goals per game, which makes Under 2.5 the head-to-head-backed angle in the goals market. The most recent of those, on 25 Sep 2025, ended Al Taawon 1–0 Al Khaleej Saihat — a Al Taawon win.
The head-to-head data gives Al Taawon an edge — 4 wins from 7 H2H matches is worth weighing, particularly if the form picture is inconclusive.
Trading
Al Taawon half-time and goal-timing data (last 53 games, 26 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 69% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 90% of the time; of the 19 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 32%; of the 12 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 33%; BTTS occurs in 46% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 38% of games (home games).
Al Khaleej Saihat half-time and goal-timing data (last 53 games, 26 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 77% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 81% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; of the 16 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 44%; BTTS occurs in 81% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 81% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 40%.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Al Taawon 43% versus Al Khaleej Saihat 62%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Al Taawon 38% | Al Khaleej Saihat 66%). Note also that Al Khaleej Saihat surrender HT leads in 44% of cases while Al Taawon recover from half-time deficits to draw or win 33% of the time — a dynamic that could influence in-play positioning.
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Al Taawon 2.15 xG and Al Khaleej Saihat 1.37 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Al Taawon attack 1.111 / defence 0.870 | Al Khaleej Saihat attack 1.176 / defence 1.328. League average goals — home 1.461 / away 1.335. Al Khaleej Saihat's defence rating of 1.328 (above 1 = concedes more than average) is pushing Al Taawon's projected output up. Data: built from Al Taawon's last 53 games and Al Khaleej Saihat's last 53.
Result probabilities: Al Taawon 55% | Draw 21% | Al Khaleej Saihat 24%. Fair-value odds: Al Taawon 1.80 | Draw 4.85 | Al Khaleej Saihat 4.18. The model has a clear lean to Al Taawon (55%) — a 31pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 68% | BTTS Yes probability 66% | Total xG 3.52. Over 2.5 is the model's clear signal at 68% — a total xG of 3.52 means the expected score alone exceeds the 2.5 threshold, making the Over not just likely but structurally supported by both sides' attack/defence profiles. BTTS Yes at 66% — both xG figures (2.15 / 1.37) are high enough that each side is projected to find the net.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, Al Taawon are the pick at 55% — clear model lean. Recent form and the head-to-head data both align with the Poisson read — multi-source corroboration increases confidence in this selection. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 21% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
On the goals line, Poisson's 3.52 combined xG gives a 68% probability to Over 2.5 — mixed conviction, supported by recent form (Al Taawon's last 10 home games and Al Khaleej Saihat's last 10 away games) averaging 3.8 goals per game — though the H2H data averaging only 1.6 goals per game across 7 H2H matches points the other way.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 66%. Form rates corroborate — both teams scored in: Al Taawon 50% (last 10 home games) | Al Khaleej Saihat 100% (last 10 away games).
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Al Taawon vs Al Khaleej Saihat | Competition: Pro League, matchday 21 | Venue: Al Taawon Arena • Kick-off: Saturday 7 February 2026 at 15:30 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Al Taawon 55% | Draw 21% | Al Khaleej Saihat 24% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 68% (Under 32%) | BTTS Yes 66% (No 34%) | xG Al Taawon 2.15 / Al Khaleej Saihat 1.37 • Poisson strength factors: Al Taawon attack 1.111 / def 0.870 | Al Khaleej Saihat attack 1.176 / def 1.328 | league avg home 1.461 / away 1.335 • Poisson stance: Al Taawon (55%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
2.15
Al Taawon xG
Expected Goals
1.37
Al Khaleej Saihat xG
66%
BTTS
87%
Over 1.5
68%
Over 2.5
47%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Al Taawon vs Al Khaleej Saihat FAQs
What time does Al Taawon vs Al Khaleej Saihat kick off?
Al Taawon vs Al Khaleej Saihat kicked off at 15:30 UK time on Saturday 7 February 2026 at Al Taawon Arena.
What was the final score in Al Taawon vs Al Khaleej Saihat?
Al Taawon 1 - 1 Al Khaleej Saihat.
Where is Al Taawon vs Al Khaleej Saihat being played?
The match is being played at Al Taawon Arena.
What competition is Al Taawon vs Al Khaleej Saihat part of?
Al Taawon vs Al Khaleej Saihat is a Pro League fixture (matchday 21) (Saudi-Arabia).
Who is favourite to win Al Taawon vs Al Khaleej Saihat?
Our statistical model gives Al Taawon a 55% chance of winning, Al Khaleej Saihat a 24% chance, and a 21% chance of a draw — making Al Taawon the favourite.
Will both teams score in Al Taawon vs Al Khaleej Saihat?
Our model estimates a 66% probability that both Al Taawon and Al Khaleej Saihat will score, so it leans towards BTTS Yes.
Will Al Taawon vs Al Khaleej Saihat have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 68%, so it leans towards over 2.5 goals.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Al Taawon's attacking strength (1.11x league average) is weighed against Al Khaleej Saihat's defensive record (1.33x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 2.15. Flip it around — Al Khaleej Saihat's attack (1.18x) against Al Taawon's defence (0.87x) — and the away total comes out at 1.37.
These ratings are built from Al Taawon's last 53 games and Al Khaleej Saihat's last 53 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 9.8%. Close behind: 2-1 (9.4%), 2-0 (6.9%). Together the top three scorelines make up 26% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Al Taawon Win
55%
1.80
21%
4.85
24%
4.18
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
2 – 1
9.4%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
8.7%
Draw
2 – 0
6.9%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
2.15
Al Taawon xG
Total xG
3.52
1.37
Al Khaleej Saihat xG
1.80
55%
Home win
4.85
21%
Draw
4.18
24%
Away win
Goals Markets
87%
Over 1.5
1.15
13%
Under 1.5
7.69
68%
Over 2.5
1.47
32%
Under 2.5
3.12
47%
Over 3.5
2.13
53%
Under 3.5
1.89
28%
Over 4.5
3.57
72%
Under 4.5
1.39
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
66%
BTTS Yes
1.52
34%
BTTS No
2.93
Clean Sheet
26%
3.92
12%
8.63
Win to Nil
14%
7.06
3%
36.07
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 3.0 | 4.0 | 2.8 | 1.3 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 6.4 | 8.7 | 5.9 | 2.7 | 0.9 | 0.3 |
| 2 | 6.9 | 9.4 | 6.4 | 2.9 | 1.0 | 0.3 |
| 3 | 4.9 | 6.7 | 4.6 | 2.1 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 2.7 | 3.6 | 2.5 | 1.1 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 1.1 | 1.6 | 1.1 | 0.5 | 0.2 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Al Taawon vs Al Khaleej Saihat Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for Al Taawon vs Al Khaleej Saihat?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 9.8%.
How many goals are Al Taawon and Al Khaleej Saihat expected to score?
The model projects 2.15 expected goals for Al Taawon and 1.37 for Al Khaleej Saihat, a combined total of 3.52.
How confident is the prediction model for Al Taawon vs Al Khaleej Saihat?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 55%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Al Taawon come into this having played 53 games, going 24W 11D 18L for 1.57 points per game. Their last five reads W-D-L-W-L.
On the other side, Al Khaleej Saihat sit at 1.17 PPG from 53 outings (17W 11D 25L), a run that reads W-L-D-L-L across their last five.
Al Taawon carry the stronger recent form of the two, 0.40 PPG clear of Al Khaleej Saihat — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
How They Fare by Venue
Al Taawon's home form reads 13W 7D 6L across their last 26 home games, a 1.77 PPG return.
Away from home, Al Khaleej Saihat have taken 1.12 points per game from their last 26 away games (8W 5D 13L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Al Taawon come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Attack vs Defence
Al Taawon are averaging 1.43 goals scored and 1.13 conceded per game recently; Al Khaleej Saihat are on 1.47 scored and 1.66 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Al Khaleej Saihat in 62%.
Last 53 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Al Taawon
Blended
Al Khaleej Saihat
Blended
Al Taawon (Home) vs Al Khaleej Saihat (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
Al Taawon
Blended
Al Khaleej Saihat
Blended
❓ Al Taawon vs Al Khaleej Saihat Form FAQs
What form are Al Taawon and Al Khaleej Saihat in coming into this match?
Al Taawon have gone 24W 11D 18L in their last 53 games (1.57 PPG), while Al Khaleej Saihat have gone 17W 11D 25L in their last 53 (1.17 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Al Taawon at home or Al Khaleej Saihat away?
Al Taawon's home record (1.77 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Al Taawon at home: 1.77 PPG; Al Khaleej Saihat away: 1.12 PPG.
Have Al Taawon or Al Khaleej Saihat been keeping clean sheets recently?
Al Taawon have kept a clean sheet in 32% of their recent games, Al Khaleej Saihat in 17%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
Our data holds 9 H2H matches between Al Taawon and Al Khaleej Saihat, the earliest from January 2023. All of them came in Pro League. The most recent was as recently as 15 August 2026, so it is a fresh reference point.
Notable Numbers
The most recent 2 H2H matches in our data have all been drawn — an unusually settled run for this fixture.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Al Taawon have gone 1W 3D 1L from the 5 H2H matches in our data played on their own ground against Al Khaleej Saihat — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 9 Meetings
4
Al Taawon
4
Draws
1
Al Khaleej Saihat
Recent Meetings
❓ Al Taawon vs Al Khaleej Saihat H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between Al Taawon and Al Khaleej Saihat?
Across the 9 head-to-head matches in our data, Al Taawon have won 4, Al Khaleej Saihat have won 1, and 4 have been drawn.
When did Al Taawon and Al Khaleej Saihat last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 15 August 2026: Al Taawon 0-0 Al Khaleej Saihat.
Who has won more matches between Al Taawon and Al Khaleej Saihat?
Al Taawon have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from the 9 head-to-head matches in our data.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Al Taawon are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 69% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 42% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 36% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 40% of those situations.
Al Khaleej Saihat are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 77% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 22% of those situations.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Al Taawon 46%, Al Khaleej Saihat 81% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 38% (Al Taawon) and 81% (Al Khaleej Saihat). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 31% and 46% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Al Taawon keep a clean sheet in 38% of their matches.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Al Taawon home games / Al Khaleej Saihat away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Al Taawon vs Al Khaleej Saihat Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in Al Taawon and Al Khaleej Saihat matches?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 46% of Al Taawon's games and 81% of Al Khaleej Saihat's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Are Al Taawon and Al Khaleej Saihat matches usually high-scoring?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 38% of Al Taawon's matches and 81% of Al Khaleej Saihat's.
Do Al Taawon and Al Khaleej Saihat matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 69% of Al Taawon's recent matches and 77% of Al Khaleej Saihat's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Al Taawon and Al Khaleej Saihat share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Al Taawon and Al Khaleej Saihat finished level at 1-1 at Al Taawon Arena, Regular Season - 21, in the Pro League. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Al Taawon 2.15 xG and Al Khaleej Saihat 1.37 xG, a combined 3.52. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Al Taawon fell 1.2 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Al Taawon attack 1.11 / defence 0.87 against Al Khaleej Saihat attack 1.18 / defence 1.33, drawn from 53/53 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Al Taawon 55% | Draw 21% | Al Khaleej Saihat 24%, with Al Taawon to win its most likely call at 55%. Instead the game produced a draw, an outcome the model had rated at just 21% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 68%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 87% and landed. Over 3.5 was 47% and did not. On both teams to score, the model sat at 66% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 52% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Al Taawon 38%, Al Khaleej Saihat 66%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 53%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Al Taawon's trading profile (53 games, 26 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 43% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 32% of the time, and conceded here.
Al Khaleej Saihat's trading profile (53 games, 26 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 62% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
On form, Al Taawon arrived the stronger side — 1.57 PPG against 1.17. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win. Al Khaleej Saihat (home/away splits) conceded 1 against a 2.00 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit), form (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.