Al Taawon 1-2 Al-Ittihad FC – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Al-Ittihad FC at 39% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Al Taawon vs Al-Ittihad FC encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
Al Taawon and Al-Ittihad FC meet at King Abdullah Sport City Stadium in Pro League, Regular Season - 19. This fixture gets under way on Thursday 6 February 2025 at 17:00 UTC.
Current Form
Al Taawon's overall Pro League record this term: 3W 4D 3L from 10 games (1.30 PPG). Last five: W D L D D. They are averaging 0.90 goals per game and conceding 0.80 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. Defensively, conceding just 0.80 per game is an exceptional defensive record — one of the tightest in the division. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is a standout defensive return — they are keeping their net clean in more than half their matches. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their matches, indicating a tendency toward clean sheets or low-scoring outcomes. This season is still relatively young for Al Taawon, so this record blends games from this season and last.
In front of their own supporters this season, Al Taawon have posted 5W 4D 1L at King Abdullah Sport City Stadium — 1.90 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.20 goals scored and 0.70 conceded per game. 6 clean sheets from 10 home games (60%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at King Abdullah Sport City Stadium. Their home PPG of 1.90 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.30 — Al Taawon are significantly better at King Abdullah Sport City Stadium than their overall form suggests.
Al-Ittihad FC (all games): 8W 1D 1L across 10 Pro League outings this term — 2.50 points per game. Last five: D W W L W. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.30 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Al-Ittihad FC, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Al-Ittihad FC's form when playing away from home: 5W 2D 3L across 10 road games this term (1.70 PPG). Away from home they average 1.60 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game. 4 clean sheets from 10 away games (40%) shows they are capable of shutting up shop on the road. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context. Their away PPG of 1.70 is notably below their overall 2.50 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
The travelling side arrive in better shape. Al-Ittihad FC are 1.20 PPG clear of Al Taawon in recent Pro League fixtures (2.50 vs 1.30). Backing the visitors outright or on Draw No Bet are both valid approaches where the price allows.
Head-to-Head
Neither side has dominated this fixture. The last 7 head-to-head meetings have produced 1 wins for Al Taawon, 2 for Al-Ittihad FC and 4 draws — an even split that leaves the H2H largely neutral as a betting input.
The 7 previous meetings have averaged 2.1 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 29 Aug 2024, ended 1–2 with Al-Ittihad FC winning.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
Trading
Al Taawon half-time and goal-timing data (52 games, 25 at home): they score before half-time in 68% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 70% of the time; BTTS occurs in 52% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 44% of games (home games); they keep a clean sheet 40% of the time.
Al-Ittihad FC half-time and goal-timing data (52 games, 25 at away): they score before half-time in 68% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 86% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 71% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 52% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 56% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 46%.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Al Taawon 46% versus Al-Ittihad FC 64%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Al Taawon 36% | Al-Ittihad FC 67%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Al Taawon 1.07 xG and Al-Ittihad FC 1.20 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Al Taawon attack 0.795 / defence 0.839 | Al-Ittihad FC attack 1.075 / defence 0.878. League average goals — home 1.536 / away 1.336. Al Taawon's attack strength of 0.795 is below the league average — the 1.07 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Data: 52 Al Taawon games / 52 Al-Ittihad FC games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Al Taawon 33% | Draw 28% | Al-Ittihad FC 39%. Fair-value odds: Al Taawon 3.03 | Draw 3.57 | Al-Ittihad FC 2.56. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 28% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 40% | BTTS probability 46% | Total xG 2.28. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 60% — total xG of 2.28 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 46% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Al-Ittihad FC at 39% — marginal model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw probability of 28% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Al-Ittihad FC if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 33% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.28 combined xG gives a 40% probability to Under 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 46%. Form rates are neutral: Al Taawon 40% | Al-Ittihad FC 60%.
The outsider holds a 33% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Al Taawon vs Al-Ittihad FC | Competition: Pro League, Regular Season - 19 | Venue: King Abdullah Sport City Stadium • Kick-off: Thursday 6 Feb 2025, 17:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Al Taawon 33% | Draw 28% | Al-Ittihad FC 39% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 40% | BTTS 46% | xG Al Taawon 1.07 / Al-Ittihad FC 1.20 • Poisson strength factors: Al Taawon attack 0.795 / def 0.839 | Al-Ittihad FC attack 1.075 / def 0.878 | league avg home 1.536 / away 1.336 • Poisson stance: Al-Ittihad FC (39%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.07
Al Taawon xG
Expected Goals
1.20
Al-Ittihad FC xG
46%
BTTS
66%
Over 1.5
40%
Over 2.5
20%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Al Taawon vs Al-Ittihad FC kick off?
Al Taawon vs Al-Ittihad FC kicked off at 17:00 on Thursday 6 February 2025 at King Abdullah Sport City Stadium.
What was the final score in Al Taawon vs Al-Ittihad FC?
Al Taawon 1 - 2 Al-Ittihad FC.
Where is Al Taawon vs Al-Ittihad FC being played?
The match is being played at King Abdullah Sport City Stadium.
What competition is Al Taawon vs Al-Ittihad FC part of?
Al Taawon vs Al-Ittihad FC is a Regular Season - 19 fixture in the Pro League (Saudi-Arabia).
Who is favourite to win Al Taawon vs Al-Ittihad FC?
Our statistical model gives Al Taawon a 33% chance of winning, Al-Ittihad FC a 39% chance, and a 28% chance of a draw — making Al-Ittihad FC the favourite.
Will both teams score in Al Taawon vs Al-Ittihad FC?
Our model estimates a 46% probability that both Al Taawon and Al-Ittihad FC will score (BTTS).
Will Al Taawon vs Al-Ittihad FC have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 40%.
What is the head-to-head record between Al Taawon and Al-Ittihad FC?
Record (7 meetings): Al Taawon 1W | Draws 4 | Al-Ittihad FC 2W.
What form are Al Taawon and Al-Ittihad FC in?
Al Taawon (all comps): 3W-4D-3L in 10 | 1.30 PPG | GF 0.90 / GA 0.80 | L5 W-D-L-D-D. Al-Ittihad FC (all comps): 8W-1D-1L in 10 | 2.50 PPG | GF 2.30 / GA 0.90 | L5 D-W-W-L-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Al Taawon's attacking strength (0.80x league average) is weighed against Al-Ittihad FC's defensive record (0.88x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.07. Flip it around — Al-Ittihad FC's attack (1.07x) against Al Taawon's defence (0.84x) — and the away total comes out at 1.20.
These ratings are built from 52/52 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 15.0%. Close behind: 0-0 (12.0%), 0-1 (10.6%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 38% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Al-Ittihad FC Win
33%
3.07
28%
3.51
39%
2.56
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
13.3%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
12.3%
Away win
1 – 0
11.0%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.07
Al Taawon xG
Total xG
2.28
1.20
Al-Ittihad FC xG
3.07
33%
Home win
3.51
28%
Draw
2.56
39%
Away win
Goals Markets
66%
Over 1.5
1.52
34%
Under 1.5
2.94
40%
Over 2.5
2.50
60%
Under 2.5
1.67
20%
Over 3.5
5.00
80%
Under 3.5
1.25
8%
Over 4.5
12.50
92%
Under 4.5
1.09
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
46%
BTTS Yes
2.17
54%
BTTS No
1.85
Clean Sheet
30%
3.33
34%
2.93
Win to Nil
10%
10.24
13%
7.51
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 10.2 | 12.3 | 7.4 | 3.0 | 0.9 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 11.0 | 13.3 | 8.0 | 3.2 | 1.0 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 5.9 | 7.1 | 4.3 | 1.7 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 2.1 | 2.5 | 1.5 | 0.6 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 0.6 | 0.7 | 0.4 | 0.2 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Al Taawon vs Al-Ittihad FC?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 15.0%.
How many goals are Al Taawon and Al-Ittihad FC expected to score?
The model projects 1.07 expected goals for Al Taawon and 1.20 for Al-Ittihad FC, a combined total of 2.28.
How confident is the prediction model for Al Taawon vs Al-Ittihad FC?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 39%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Al Taawon come into this having played 52 games, going 22W 17D 13L for 1.60 points per game. Their last five reads W-D-L-D-D. The sample for Al Taawon is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Al-Ittihad FC sit at 1.92 PPG from 52 outings (31W 7D 14L), a run that reads D-W-W-L-W across their last five. The sample for Al-Ittihad FC is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.60 PPG for Al Taawon against 1.92 for Al-Ittihad FC. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
Home & Away Splits
Al Taawon's home form reads 12W 7D 6L across 25 games on their own ground, a 1.72 PPG return.
Away from home, Al-Ittihad FC have taken 1.64 points per game from 25 outings (12W 5D 8L).
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Al Taawon are averaging 1.33 goals scored and 0.98 conceded per game recently; Al-Ittihad FC are on 2.06 scored and 1.37 conceded. Al-Ittihad FC's attacking output running into Al Taawon's solid defensive record is the key goals-market tension in this fixture.
On BTTS specifically: Al-Ittihad FC in 63%.
Defensively: Al Taawon have kept a clean sheet in 40% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 52 Results — Pro League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Al Taawon
Blended
Al-Ittihad FC
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Al Taawon and Al-Ittihad FC in coming into this match?
Al Taawon have gone 22W 17D 13L in their last 52 games (1.60 PPG), while Al-Ittihad FC have gone 31W 7D 14L in their last 52 (1.92 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Al Taawon at home or Al-Ittihad FC away?
Al Taawon's home record (1.72 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Al Taawon at home: 1.72 PPG; Al-Ittihad FC away: 1.64 PPG.
Have Al Taawon or Al-Ittihad FC been keeping clean sheets recently?
Al Taawon have kept a clean sheet in 40% of their recent games, Al-Ittihad FC in 29%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 10 times since September 2021 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Pro League. They last met on 29 April 2026, roughly 4 months ago.
Records & Recent Trends
Al-Ittihad FC have won the last 4 meetings between these two, a run that gives them the psychological edge coming in.
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Al-Ittihad FC won 3-0 on 26 Dec 2022, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Al Taawon have gone 1W 2D 2L from 5 meetings on their own ground against Al-Ittihad FC — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
1
Al Taawon
4
Draws
5
Al-Ittihad FC
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Al Taawon and Al-Ittihad FC?
From 10 meetings on record, Al Taawon have won 1, Al-Ittihad FC have won 5, and 4 have been drawn.
When did Al Taawon and Al-Ittihad FC last play each other?
They last met on 29 April 2026, when Al Taawon 0-2 Al-Ittihad FC.
Who has won more matches between Al Taawon and Al-Ittihad FC?
Al-Ittihad FC have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Al Taawon are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 68% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 44% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 16% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
Al-Ittihad FC are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 68% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 32% of the time.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Al Taawon 52%, Al-Ittihad FC 52% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 44% (Al Taawon) and 56% (Al-Ittihad FC).
On the defensive side: Al Taawon keep a clean sheet in 40% of their matches; Al-Ittihad FC in 40%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Al Taawon home games / Al-Ittihad FC away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Al Taawon play Al-Ittihad FC?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 52% of Al Taawon's recent matches and 52% of Al-Ittihad FC's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Al Taawon vs Al-Ittihad FC usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 44% of Al Taawon's recent games and 56% of Al-Ittihad FC's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Al Taawon and Al-Ittihad FC tend to score early?
Al Taawon have had a goal before half-time in 68% of their recent matches, Al-Ittihad FC in 68% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Al-Ittihad FC edge out Al Taawon 1-2.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Al-Ittihad FC beat Al Taawon 1-2 at King Abdullah Sport City Stadium, Regular Season - 19, in the Pro League. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Al Taawon 1.07 xG and Al-Ittihad FC 1.20 xG, a combined 2.28. The scoreboard read 1-2 for 3 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Al Taawon attack 0.80 / defence 0.84 against Al-Ittihad FC attack 1.07 / defence 0.88, drawn from 52/52 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Al Taawon 33% | Draw 28% | Al-Ittihad FC 39%, with Al-Ittihad FC to win its most likely call at 39%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 40%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 66% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 46% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 52% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Al Taawon 36%, Al-Ittihad FC 67%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 55%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Al Taawon's trading profile (52 games, 25 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 46% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 40% of the time, and conceded here.
Al-Ittihad FC's trading profile (52 games, 25 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 64% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Al Taawon 1.60 PPG, Al-Ittihad FC 1.92 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Al-Ittihad FC win broke the near-deadlock. Al Taawon (home/away splits) shipped 2 against a 1.04 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.