Al Shabab 5-1 Al Khaleej Saihat – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Al Shabab at 41% — the H2H record provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Al Shabab vs Al Khaleej Saihat encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
Al Khaleej Saihat make the trip to Al-Shabab Club Stadium to face Al Shabab in Pro League, Regular Season - 19. The match kicks off on Thursday 6 February 2025 at 15:20 UTC.
Form & Momentum
Al Shabab have collected 1.40 PPG across 10 Pro League outings this season: 4W 2D 4L. Last five: L W L W L. Offensively they are averaging 1.70 goals per game, with 1.60 conceded. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 90% of their matches — an extremely high rate that makes BTTS Yes a well-supported standalone angle from their form alone. This season is still relatively young for Al Shabab, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Al Shabab at Al-Shabab Club Stadium this season: 6W 1D 3L from 10 home games — 1.90 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.70 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 80% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture. Their home PPG of 1.90 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.40 — Al Shabab are significantly better at Al-Shabab Club Stadium than their overall form suggests.
Al Khaleej Saihat (all games): 5W 2D 3L across 10 Pro League outings this term — 1.70 points per game. Last five: D W L W D. They are scoring at 1.90 per game and conceding 1.30. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Al Khaleej Saihat, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Al Khaleej Saihat away from home this season: 4W 2D 4L from 10 away games — 1.40 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 1.20 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
A near-identical PPG reading — 1.40 for Al Shabab, 1.70 for Al Khaleej Saihat — means the form record is uninstructive on result selection. The goals and market sections will carry greater evidential weight.
In terms of goals, both squads have been finding the net consistently (using home/away splits) — Al Shabab have seen both teams score in 80% of their games, Al Khaleej Saihat in 60%. That combined rate is a strong statistical case for BTTS Yes as a standalone play.
Head-to-Head
Form and model data should carry more weight here — the historical record is too balanced to provide a directional steer. From 5 meetings: Al Shabab 3W, Al Khaleej Saihat 1W, 1D.
These two sides have produced goals at a consistent rate historically, averaging 2.8 per game across 5 meetings. That scoring profile provides genuine support for the Over 2.5 angle. The most recent clash, on 29 Aug 2024, ended 1–0 with Al Shabab winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 2.8 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Trading Data
Al Shabab goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (52 games, 25 at home): they score before half-time in 60% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 82% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 64% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 64% of games (home games).
Al Khaleej Saihat goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (52 games, 25 at away): they score before half-time in 76% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 75% of the time; BTTS occurs in 56% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 44% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Al Shabab 52% versus Al Khaleej Saihat 56%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Al Shabab 52% | Al Khaleej Saihat 50%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Al Shabab 1.57 xG and Al Khaleej Saihat 1.42 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Al Shabab attack 1.040 / defence 0.989 | Al Khaleej Saihat attack 1.071 / defence 1.005. League average goals — home 1.504 / away 1.340. Data: 52 Al Shabab games / 52 Al Khaleej Saihat games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Al Shabab 41% | Draw 24% | Al Khaleej Saihat 35%. Fair-value odds: Al Shabab 2.44 | Draw 4.17 | Al Khaleej Saihat 2.86. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 24% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 57% | BTTS probability 60% | Total xG 2.99. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 57% — the 2.99 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 60% reflects that both xG figures (1.57 / 1.42) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Al Shabab at 41% — marginal model lean. Draw probability of 24% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Al Shabab if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 35% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 2.99 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 57% probability — strong conviction, supported by form averaging 2.8 goals per game and H2H averaging 2.8 goals per meeting.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 60% on Yes. Form rates corroborate: Al Shabab 80% | Al Khaleej Saihat 60% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 35% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Al Shabab vs Al Khaleej Saihat | Competition: Pro League, Regular Season - 19 | Venue: Al-Shabab Club Stadium • Kick-off: Thursday 6 Feb 2025, 15:20 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Al Shabab 41% | Draw 24% | Al Khaleej Saihat 35% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 57% | BTTS 60% | xG Al Shabab 1.57 / Al Khaleej Saihat 1.42 • Poisson strength factors: Al Shabab attack 1.040 / def 0.989 | Al Khaleej Saihat attack 1.071 / def 1.005 | league avg home 1.504 / away 1.340 • Poisson stance: Al Shabab (41%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.57
Al Shabab xG
Expected Goals
1.42
Al Khaleej Saihat xG
60%
BTTS
80%
Over 1.5
57%
Over 2.5
35%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Al Shabab vs Al Khaleej Saihat kick off?
Al Shabab vs Al Khaleej Saihat kicked off at 15:20 on Thursday 6 February 2025 at Al-Shabab Club Stadium.
What was the final score in Al Shabab vs Al Khaleej Saihat?
Al Shabab 5 - 1 Al Khaleej Saihat.
Where is Al Shabab vs Al Khaleej Saihat being played?
The match is being played at Al-Shabab Club Stadium.
What competition is Al Shabab vs Al Khaleej Saihat part of?
Al Shabab vs Al Khaleej Saihat is a Regular Season - 19 fixture in the Pro League (Saudi-Arabia).
Who is favourite to win Al Shabab vs Al Khaleej Saihat?
Our statistical model gives Al Shabab a 41% chance of winning, Al Khaleej Saihat a 35% chance, and a 24% chance of a draw — making Al Shabab the favourite.
Will both teams score in Al Shabab vs Al Khaleej Saihat?
Our model estimates a 60% probability that both Al Shabab and Al Khaleej Saihat will score (BTTS).
Will Al Shabab vs Al Khaleej Saihat have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 57%.
What is the head-to-head record between Al Shabab and Al Khaleej Saihat?
Record (5 meetings): Al Shabab 3W | Draws 1 | Al Khaleej Saihat 1W.
What form are Al Shabab and Al Khaleej Saihat in?
Al Shabab (all comps): 4W-2D-4L in 10 | 1.40 PPG | GF 1.70 / GA 1.60 | L5 L-W-L-W-L. Al Khaleej Saihat (all comps): 5W-2D-3L in 10 | 1.70 PPG | GF 1.90 / GA 1.30 | L5 D-W-L-W-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Working from Al Shabab's attack rating (1.04) and Al Khaleej Saihat's defence rating (1.00), the model arrives at 1.57 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — Al Khaleej Saihat's attack (1.07x) against Al Shabab's defence (0.99x) — and the away total comes out at 1.42.
These ratings are built from 52/52 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 12.7%. Close behind: 2-1 (8.8%), 1-2 (8.0%). Together the top three scorelines make up 29% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Al Shabab Win
41%
2.43
24%
4.12
35%
2.89
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.2%
Draw
Most likely
2 – 1
8.8%
Home win
1 – 2
8.0%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.57
Al Shabab xG
Total xG
2.99
1.42
Al Khaleej Saihat xG
2.43
41%
Home win
4.12
24%
Draw
2.89
35%
Away win
Goals Markets
80%
Over 1.5
1.25
20%
Under 1.5
5.00
57%
Over 2.5
1.75
43%
Under 2.5
2.33
35%
Over 3.5
2.86
65%
Under 3.5
1.54
18%
Over 4.5
5.56
82%
Under 4.5
1.22
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
60%
BTTS Yes
1.66
40%
BTTS No
2.50
Clean Sheet
24%
4.14
21%
4.81
Win to Nil
10%
10.05
7%
13.92
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.0 | 7.1 | 5.1 | 2.4 | 0.9 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 7.9 | 11.2 | 8.0 | 3.8 | 1.3 | 0.4 |
| 2 | 6.2 | 8.8 | 6.3 | 3.0 | 1.1 | 0.3 |
| 3 | 3.2 | 4.6 | 3.3 | 1.5 | 0.5 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 1.3 | 1.8 | 1.3 | 0.6 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.4 | 0.6 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Al Shabab vs Al Khaleej Saihat?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.7%.
How many goals are Al Shabab and Al Khaleej Saihat expected to score?
The model projects 1.57 expected goals for Al Shabab and 1.42 for Al Khaleej Saihat, a combined total of 2.99.
How confident is the prediction model for Al Shabab vs Al Khaleej Saihat?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 41%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Al Shabab come into this having played 52 games, going 21W 10D 21L for 1.40 points per game. Their last five reads L-W-L-W-L. The sample for Al Shabab is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Al Khaleej Saihat sit at 1.23 PPG from 52 outings (17W 13D 22L), a run that reads D-W-L-W-D across their last five. The sample for Al Khaleej Saihat is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.40 PPG for Al Shabab against 1.23 for Al Khaleej Saihat. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
How They Fare by Venue
Al Shabab's home form reads 13W 3D 9L across 25 games on their own ground, a 1.68 PPG return.
Away from home, Al Khaleej Saihat have taken 1.40 points per game from 25 outings (10W 5D 10L).
Attack vs Defence
Al Shabab are averaging 1.37 goals scored and 1.21 conceded per game recently; Al Khaleej Saihat are on 1.17 scored and 1.37 conceded.
Last 52 Results — Pro League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Al Shabab
Blended
Al Khaleej Saihat
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Al Shabab and Al Khaleej Saihat in coming into this match?
Al Shabab have gone 21W 10D 21L in their last 52 games (1.40 PPG), while Al Khaleej Saihat have gone 17W 13D 22L in their last 52 (1.23 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Al Shabab at home or Al Khaleej Saihat away?
Al Shabab's home record (1.68 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Al Shabab at home: 1.68 PPG; Al Khaleej Saihat away: 1.40 PPG.
Have Al Shabab or Al Khaleej Saihat been keeping clean sheets recently?
Al Shabab have kept a clean sheet in 35% of their recent games, Al Khaleej Saihat in 25%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 9 times that we have on record, stretching back to October 2022 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 3 years. Every recorded meeting has come in Pro League. The two were last together as recently as 22 August 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Notable Numbers
The last 2 meetings have all been drawn — an unusually settled recent run for this fixture.
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Al Shabab won 4-0 on 15 Oct 2022, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Al Shabab have gone 2W 0D 2L from 4 meetings on their own ground against Al Khaleej Saihat — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 9 Meetings
4
Al Shabab
3
Draws
2
Al Khaleej Saihat
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Al Shabab and Al Khaleej Saihat?
From 9 meetings on record, Al Shabab have won 4, Al Khaleej Saihat have won 2, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Al Shabab and Al Khaleej Saihat last play each other?
They last met on 22 August 2026, when Al Khaleej Saihat 0-0 Al Shabab.
Who has won more matches between Al Shabab and Al Khaleej Saihat?
Al Shabab have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 9 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Al Shabab are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 60% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 36% of the time.
Al Khaleej Saihat are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 76% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 36% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 16% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Al Shabab 64%, Al Khaleej Saihat 56% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 64% (Al Shabab) and 44% (Al Khaleej Saihat).
On the defensive side: Al Shabab keep a clean sheet in 32% of their matches.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Al Shabab home games / Al Khaleej Saihat away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Al Shabab play Al Khaleej Saihat?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 64% of Al Shabab's games and 56% of Al Khaleej Saihat's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Al Shabab vs Al Khaleej Saihat usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 64% of Al Shabab's recent games and 44% of Al Khaleej Saihat's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Al Shabab and Al Khaleej Saihat tend to score early?
Al Shabab have had a goal before half-time in 60% of their recent matches, Al Khaleej Saihat in 76% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Dominant Al Shabab run riot with a 5-1 hammering of Al Khaleej Saihat.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Al Shabab beat Al Khaleej Saihat 5-1 at Al-Shabab Club Stadium, Regular Season - 19, in the Pro League. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Al Shabab 1.57 xG and Al Khaleej Saihat 1.42 xG, a combined 2.99. The scoreboard read 5-1 for 6 actual goals. Al Shabab beat their projection by 3.4 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Al Shabab attack 1.04 / defence 0.99 against Al Khaleej Saihat attack 1.07 / defence 1.00, drawn from 52/52 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Al Shabab 41% | Draw 24% | Al Khaleej Saihat 35%, with Al Shabab to win its most likely call at 41%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 57%. The game delivered 6, so it went over — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 80% and landed. Over 3.5 was 35% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 60% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 51% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Al Shabab 52%, Al Khaleej Saihat 50%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 54%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Al Shabab's trading profile (52 games, 25 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 52% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 35% of the time, and conceded here.
Al Khaleej Saihat's trading profile (52 games, 25 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 56% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Al Shabab 1.40 PPG, Al Khaleej Saihat 1.23 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Al Shabab win broke the near-deadlock. Al Shabab (home/away splits) scored 5 against a 1.76 average — above their attacking norm. Al Khaleej Saihat (home/away splits) shipped 5 against a 1.32 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). The data earned its keep here, calling the bulk of the fixture correctly.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.