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Poisson rates Al-Qadisiyah FC at 45% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Al-Qadisiyah FC vs Al-Raed encounter.

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Pre-Match Analysis

Al-Qadisiyah FC and Al-Raed meet at Prince Mohamed bin Fahd Stadium in Pro League, Regular Season - 19. This fixture gets under way on Thursday 6 February 2025 at 15:05 UTC.

Form

Al-Qadisiyah FC (all games): 8W 1D 1L across 10 Pro League fixtures this term — 2.50 PPG. Last five: L W W W D. Offensively they are averaging 1.80 goals per game, with 0.60 conceded. Defensively, conceding just 0.60 per game is an exceptional defensive record — one of the tightest in the division. 6 clean sheets from 10 games (60%) is a standout defensive return — they are keeping their net clean in more than half their matches. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their matches, indicating a tendency toward clean sheets or low-scoring outcomes. This season is still relatively young for Al-Qadisiyah FC, so this record blends games from this season and last.

Al-Qadisiyah FC's form when playing at home: 6W 0D 2L across 8 games at Prince Mohamed bin Fahd Stadium this term (2.25 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.38 goals scored and 0.75 conceded per game. 4 clean sheets from 8 home games (50%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Prince Mohamed bin Fahd Stadium. At home, both teams have scored in only 25% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle.

Al-Raed's overall Pro League record this term: 1W 0D 9L from 10 games (0.30 PPG). Last five: L L L L L. Their scoring rate of 0.80 per game is modest, conceding 2.30 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Conceding 2.30 per game is a high rate — their defensive vulnerabilities have been exposed regularly this season. This season is still relatively young for Al-Raed, so this record blends games from this season and last.

When travelling in Pro League this season, Al-Raed have posted 2W 2D 6L from 10 away outings — 0.80 PPG. Away from home they average 1.30 goals scored and 1.90 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context. Their away PPG of 0.80 exceeds their overall 0.30 — they actually perform better on the road than their aggregate form implies.

Form favours the hosts. Al-Qadisiyah FC's 2.50 PPG return is 2.20 points per game ahead of Al-Raed's 0.30 — a genuine gap in recent results that provides a statistically grounded case for backing the home side.

H2H Analysis

Neither side has dominated this fixture. The last 1 head-to-head meetings have produced 1 wins for Al-Qadisiyah FC, 0 for Al-Raed and 0 draws — an even split that leaves the H2H largely neutral as a betting input.

Historically, goals have been at a premium in this fixture — just 1.0 per game from 1 meetings. The Under 2.5 has a clear base rate from the H2H record alone. The most recent clash, on 27 Aug 2024, ended 1–0 with Al-Qadisiyah FC winning.

With a balanced win record and just 1.0 goals per game historically, the H2H points toward a tight, low-scoring contest. Under 2.5 goals has the strongest statistical grounding from the fixture history regardless of which side wins.

Trading Data

Al-Qadisiyah FC goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (18 games, 8 at home): they score before half-time in 88% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 67% of the time; they lead at the break 56% of the time; BTTS occurs in 25% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (home games); they keep a clean sheet 56% of the time.

Al-Raed goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (18 games, 8 at away): they score before half-time in 88% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 60% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 75% of games (away games); they fail to score in 33% of games.

BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Al-Qadisiyah FC 33% versus Al-Raed 56%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Al-Qadisiyah FC 50% | Al-Raed 61%).

Poisson Model

The Poisson distribution model projects Al-Qadisiyah FC 1.55 xG and Al-Raed 1.20 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Al-Qadisiyah FC attack 0.883 / defence 0.945 | Al-Raed attack 0.937 / defence 1.168. League average goals — home 1.500 / away 1.353. Data: 18 Al-Qadisiyah FC games / 52 Al-Raed games used (CurrentSeason).

Result probabilities: Al-Qadisiyah FC 45% | Draw 25% | Al-Raed 30%. Fair-value odds: Al-Qadisiyah FC 2.22 | Draw 4.00 | Al-Raed 3.33. Al-Qadisiyah FC hold a narrow Poisson edge at 45% — the draw (25%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.

Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 52% | BTTS probability 55% | Total xG 2.75. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 52%/48% — the total xG of 2.75 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 55% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.

Final Verdict

Poisson rates Al-Qadisiyah FC as the most likely outcome at 45% — moderate model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw probability of 25% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Al-Qadisiyah FC if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 30% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.

On the goals line, Poisson's 2.75 combined xG gives a 52% probability to Over 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration.

The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 55%. Form rates are neutral: Al-Qadisiyah FC 25% | Al-Raed 60%.

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