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Poisson rates Al Taawon at 42% — the H2H record provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Al-Fayha vs Al Taawon encounter.

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Analysis

Al Taawon make the trip to Al Majma'ah Sports City Stadium to face Al-Fayha in Pro League, Regular Season - 18. The match kicks off on Friday 31 January 2025 at 13:45 UTC.

Form

Al-Fayha (all games): 2W 4D 4L across 10 Pro League fixtures this term — 1.00 PPG. Last five: D D W W L. They are averaging 0.90 goals per game and conceding 1.20 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Al-Fayha, so this record blends games from this season and last.

Al-Fayha at Al Majma'ah Sports City Stadium this season: 2W 4D 4L from 10 home games — 1.00 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 0.90 goals scored and 1.60 conceded per game.

Al Taawon's overall Pro League record this term: 3W 3D 4L from 10 games (1.20 PPG). Last five: L W D L D. Their scoring rate of 0.90 per game is modest, conceding 1.00 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their games, reflecting a regular tendency to keep or record clean sheets. This season is still relatively young for Al Taawon, so this record blends games from this season and last.

On the road, Al Taawon have gone 2W 3D 5L from 10 away fixtures this term (0.90 PPG). Away from home they average 0.80 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel.

Both sides are running at similar form levels — 1.00 PPG for Al-Fayha against 1.20 for Al Taawon. There is no clear form edge to exploit here; other signals need to take the lead.

H2H Analysis

Across the last 7 meetings, Al Taawon have the stronger historical record — 3 wins to Al-Fayha's 0, with 4 draws in the mix.

The 7 previous meetings have averaged 2.1 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 22 Aug 2024, ended 0–1 with Al Taawon winning.

It is worth noting that Al Taawon have a superior record in this fixture despite their visitor status — 3 wins from 7 meetings. Home advantage alone is not a sufficient reason to dismiss that track record.

Trading & In-Play

Al-Fayha — key trading statistics (51 games, 25 at home): they score before half-time in 52% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 72% of the time; BTTS occurs in 44% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 40% of games (home games); they fail to score in 31% of games.

Al Taawon — key trading statistics (51 games, 25 at away): they score before half-time in 60% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 74% of the time; BTTS occurs in 44% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 32% of games (away games).

BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Al-Fayha 59% versus Al Taawon 47%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Al-Fayha 53% | Al Taawon 37%).

Poisson Model

The Poisson distribution model projects Al-Fayha 0.84 xG and Al Taawon 1.11 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Al-Fayha attack 0.737 / defence 0.939 | Al Taawon attack 0.863 / defence 0.771. League average goals — home 1.472 / away 1.376. Al-Fayha's attack strength of 0.737 is below the league average — the 0.84 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Al Taawon's defence strength of 0.771 is below average — they are conceding at a rate that inflates the home xG figure. Data: 51 Al-Fayha games / 51 Al Taawon games used (CurrentSeason).

Result probabilities: Al-Fayha 27% | Draw 31% | Al Taawon 42%. Fair-value odds: Al-Fayha 3.70 | Draw 3.23 | Al Taawon 2.38. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 31% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.

Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 31% | BTTS probability 38% | Total xG 1.95. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 69% probability — total xG of 1.95 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match based on both sides' defensive quality. BTTS probability of 38% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.

Final Verdict

Poisson rates Al Taawon as the most likely outcome at 42% — marginal model lean. Draw probability of 31% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Al Taawon if the outright odds are short.

The Poisson model projects 1.95 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 31% — reasonable confidence, supported by form averaging 2.1 goals per game.

Poisson assigns a 38% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Al-Fayha 50% | Al Taawon 30% BTTS from recent games.

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