Al Taawon 2-3 Al-Fayha – Result & Analysis

Poisson rates Al Taawon at 63% — the head-to-head data provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Al Taawon vs Al-Fayha encounter.

✍️ Match Preview

Pre-Match Analysis

Al Taawon and Al-Fayha meet at Al Taawon Arena in Pro League (matchday 23). This fixture gets under way on Friday 20 February 2026 at 19:00 UK time.

Form & Momentum

Al Taawon have collected 1.10 PPG across their last 10 games: 3W 2D 5L. Last five: L W L D L. They are averaging 1.10 goals per game and conceding 1.10 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings (20%).

Al Taawon at home: 6W 3D 1L from their last 10 home games — 2.10 PPG on home soil. They are averaging 2.00 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. 4 home clean sheets from their last 10 home games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground. Their home PPG of 2.10 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.10 — Al Taawon are significantly better at home than their overall form suggests.

Al-Fayha (all games): 3W 2D 5L across their last 10 — 1.10 points per game. Last five: W W L W L. Their scoring rate of 1.20 per game is modest, conceding 2.00 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Conceding 2.00 per game is a high rate — their defence has been exposed regularly. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings (20%).

On the road, Al-Fayha have gone 1W 1D 8L in their last 10 away fixtures (0.40 PPG). Away from home they average 0.80 goals scored and 2.40 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context. Their away PPG of 0.40 is notably below their overall 1.10 — form away from home has been a clear weakness recently.

A near-identical PPG reading — 1.10 for Al Taawon, 1.10 for Al-Fayha — means the form record is uninstructive on result selection. The goals and market sections will carry greater evidential weight.

Head-to-Head

Across the 8 H2H matches in our data, Al Taawon have had the better of this match-up — 4 wins, with Al-Fayha managing 0 and 4 draws.

The 8 H2H matches in our data averaged 2.0 goals per game — a neutral rate that gives no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent of those, on 23 Oct 2025, ended Al Taawon 2–1 Al-Fayha — a Al Taawon win.

The head-to-head data gives Al Taawon an edge — 4 wins from 8 H2H matches is worth weighing, particularly if the form picture is inconclusive.

Trading

Al Taawon half-time and goal-timing data (last 55 games, 27 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 70% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 90% of the time; of the 19 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 32%; of the 13 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 38%; BTTS occurs in 48% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 37% of games (home games).

Al-Fayha half-time and goal-timing data (last 55 games, 27 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 82% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 59% of the time; of the 10 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 40%; BTTS occurs in 48% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 63% of games (away games); they fail to score in 44% of games.

BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Al Taawon 46% versus Al-Fayha 42%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Al Taawon 38% | Al-Fayha 46%). Note also that Al-Fayha surrender HT leads in 40% of cases while Al Taawon recover from half-time deficits to draw or win 38% of the time — a dynamic that could influence in-play positioning.

Poisson Model

The Poisson distribution model projects Al Taawon 2.00 xG and Al-Fayha 0.88 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Al Taawon attack 1.039 / defence 0.856 | Al-Fayha attack 0.762 / defence 1.311. League average goals — home 1.472 / away 1.355. Al-Fayha's defence rating of 1.311 (above 1 = concedes more than average) is pushing Al Taawon's projected output up. Al-Fayha's attack rating of 0.762 is below the league average, which holds their xG down at 0.88. Data: built from Al Taawon's last 55 games and Al-Fayha's last 55.

Result probabilities: Al Taawon 63% | Draw 22% | Al-Fayha 15%. Fair-value odds: Al Taawon 1.59 | Draw 4.60 | Al-Fayha 6.55. The model has a clear lean to Al Taawon (63%) — a 41pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.

Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 55% | BTTS Yes probability 51% | Total xG 2.89. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 55% — the 2.89 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 51% is only a slight lean — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.

Verdict

The Poisson model's primary lean is Al Taawon at 63% — clear model lean. The head-to-head data (Al Taawon 4 wins from 8 H2H matches) corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 22% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.

Poisson projects 2.89 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 55% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by recent form (Al Taawon's last 10 home games and Al-Fayha's last 10 away games) averaging 3.2 goals per game.

On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 51% on Yes. Form rates corroborate — both teams scored in: Al Taawon 50% (last 10 home games) | Al-Fayha 60% (last 10 away games).

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