Al Taawon 3-2 Al-Fateh – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Al Taawon at 47% — neither recent form nor the head-to-head data gives a clear steer either way as Al Taawon face Al-Fateh.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
Al-Fateh travel to Al Taawon Arena to take on Al Taawon in Pro League (matchday 25). The game is scheduled for Friday 6 March 2026 at 19:00 UK time.
Form Analysis
Looking at their last 10 matches, Al Taawon stand at 2W 4D 4L — 1.00 PPG. Last five: D L L D D. They are averaging 1.20 goals per game and conceding 1.30 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings (10%). Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.
Al Taawon's home record over their last 10 home games: 5W 4D 1L (1.90 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.90 goals scored and 0.90 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from their last 10 home games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture. Their home PPG of 1.90 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.00 — Al Taawon are significantly better at home than their overall form suggests.
Across their last 10 games, Al-Fateh have recorded 1W 5D 4L — 0.80 PPG. Last five: D L L W D. Their scoring rate of 1.30 per game is modest, conceding 2.00 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Conceding 2.00 per game is a high rate — their defence has been exposed regularly. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches — a high rate that makes Yes a well-evidenced angle from their form.
Al-Fateh's away record over their last 10 away games: 2W 4D 4L (1.00 PPG). Away from home they average 1.00 goals scored and 1.60 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
The form figures are too closely matched to derive a directional pick: Al Taawon 1.00 PPG, Al-Fateh 0.80 PPG. Look to other data sets to build the analysis.
The BTTS market is worth targeting here. Both teams have scored in 60% of Al Taawon's games and 60% of Al-Fateh's (from Al Taawon's last 10 home games and Al-Fateh's last 10 away games) — both sides above the 60% threshold gives BTTS Yes firm statistical grounding.
Head to Head
There is little to separate the sides in our head-to-head data. From 8 H2H matches, Al Taawon have won 4, Al-Fateh 2, with 2 draws — a balanced record that offers no clear steer on its own.
Goals have been a feature of this fixture — the 8 H2H matches in our data averaged 3.1 per game, which gives Over 2.5 a solid head-to-head foundation. The most recent of those, on 7 Nov 2025, ended Al Taawon 5–2 Al-Fateh — a Al Taawon win.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H signal is in the goals market — at 3.1 goals per game, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle from the head-to-head data.
In-Play Profile
Al Taawon in-play tendencies (last 58 games, 28 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 75% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 90% of the time; of the 19 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 32%; of the 14 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 36%; BTTS occurs in 54% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 39% of games (home games).
Al-Fateh in-play tendencies (last 58 games, 28 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 75% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 92% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 58% of those occasions; of the 16 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 38%; of the 23 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 26%; BTTS occurs in 57% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Al Taawon 48% versus Al-Fateh 69%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Al Taawon 38% | Al-Fateh 57%). Note also that Al-Fateh surrender HT leads in 38% of cases while Al Taawon recover from half-time deficits to draw or win 36% of the time — a dynamic that could influence in-play positioning.
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Al Taawon 1.63 xG and Al-Fateh 1.18 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Al Taawon attack 1.008 / defence 0.903 | Al-Fateh attack 0.931 / defence 1.085. League average goals — home 1.490 / away 1.403. Data: built from Al Taawon's last 58 games and Al-Fateh's last 58.
Result probabilities: Al Taawon 47% | Draw 26% | Al-Fateh 27%. Fair-value odds: Al Taawon 2.13 | Draw 3.79 | Al-Fateh 3.75. Al Taawon hold a narrow Poisson edge at 47% — the draw (26%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 53% | BTTS Yes probability 57% | Total xG 2.81. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 53%/47% — the total xG of 2.81 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS Yes at 57% is only a slight lean — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Al Taawon are the pick at 47% — moderate model lean. With a 26% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Al Taawon offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
Poisson projects 2.81 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 53% probability — strong conviction, supported by recent form (Al Taawon's last 10 home games and Al-Fateh's last 10 away games) averaging 2.7 goals per game and the H2H data averaging 3.1 goals per game across 8 H2H matches.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 57%. Form rates corroborate — both teams scored in: Al Taawon 60% (last 10 home games) | Al-Fateh 60% (last 10 away games).
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Al Taawon vs Al-Fateh | Competition: Pro League, matchday 25 | Venue: Al Taawon Arena • Kick-off: Friday 6 March 2026 at 19:00 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Al Taawon 47% | Draw 26% | Al-Fateh 27% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 53% (Under 47%) | BTTS Yes 57% (No 43%) | xG Al Taawon 1.63 / Al-Fateh 1.18 • Poisson strength factors: Al Taawon attack 1.008 / def 0.903 | Al-Fateh attack 0.931 / def 1.085 | league avg home 1.490 / away 1.403 • Poisson stance: Al Taawon (47%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.63
Al Taawon xG
Expected Goals
1.18
Al-Fateh xG
57%
BTTS
78%
Over 1.5
53%
Over 2.5
31%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Al Taawon vs Al-Fateh FAQs
What time does Al Taawon vs Al-Fateh kick off?
Al Taawon vs Al-Fateh kicked off at 19:00 UK time on Friday 6 March 2026 at Al Taawon Arena.
What was the final score in Al Taawon vs Al-Fateh?
Al Taawon 3 - 2 Al-Fateh.
Where is Al Taawon vs Al-Fateh being played?
The match is being played at Al Taawon Arena.
What competition is Al Taawon vs Al-Fateh part of?
Al Taawon vs Al-Fateh is a Pro League fixture (matchday 25) (Saudi-Arabia).
Who is favourite to win Al Taawon vs Al-Fateh?
Our statistical model gives Al Taawon a 47% chance of winning, Al-Fateh a 27% chance, and a 26% chance of a draw — making Al Taawon the favourite.
Will both teams score in Al Taawon vs Al-Fateh?
Our model estimates a 57% probability that both Al Taawon and Al-Fateh will score, so it leans towards BTTS Yes.
Will Al Taawon vs Al-Fateh have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 53%, so it leans towards over 2.5 goals.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Working from Al Taawon's attack rating (1.01) and Al-Fateh's defence rating (1.08), the model arrives at 1.63 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Al-Fateh's attack versus Al Taawon's defence, projects 1.18 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from Al Taawon's last 58 games and Al-Fateh's last 58 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 13.1%. Close behind: 2-1 (9.4%), 1-0 (8.3%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 31% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Al Taawon Win
47%
2.13
26%
3.79
27%
3.75
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.6%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
9.8%
Home win
2 – 1
9.4%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.63
Al Taawon xG
Total xG
2.81
1.18
Al-Fateh xG
2.13
47%
Home win
3.79
26%
Draw
3.75
27%
Away win
Goals Markets
77%
Over 1.5
1.30
23%
Under 1.5
4.35
53%
Over 2.5
1.89
47%
Under 2.5
2.13
31%
Over 3.5
3.23
69%
Under 3.5
1.45
15%
Over 4.5
6.67
85%
Under 4.5
1.18
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
57%
BTTS Yes
1.77
43%
BTTS No
2.30
Clean Sheet
31%
3.25
20%
5.10
Win to Nil
14%
6.93
5%
19.10
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.0 | 7.1 | 4.2 | 1.6 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 9.8 | 11.6 | 6.8 | 2.7 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 8.0 | 9.4 | 5.6 | 2.2 | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 4.3 | 5.1 | 3.0 | 1.2 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.8 | 2.1 | 1.2 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.6 | 0.7 | 0.4 | 0.2 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Al Taawon vs Al-Fateh Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for Al Taawon vs Al-Fateh?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.1%.
How many goals are Al Taawon and Al-Fateh expected to score?
The model projects 1.63 expected goals for Al Taawon and 1.18 for Al-Fateh, a combined total of 2.81.
How confident is the prediction model for Al Taawon vs Al-Fateh?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 47%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Al Taawon's recent record stands at 24W 14D 20L from 58 games, a 1.48 PPG return, with D-L-L-D-D in the last five.
Al-Fateh, meanwhile, have gone 18W 13D 27L across 58 games — 1.16 PPG, with D-L-L-W-D in their last five.
Form-wise this is close to level: Al Taawon on 1.48 PPG, Al-Fateh on 1.16. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
At home specifically, Al Taawon have managed 12W 9D 7L from their last 28 home games — 1.61 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Al-Fateh's away record stands at 6W 7D 15L across their last 28 away games, a 0.89 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Al Taawon come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Al Taawon are averaging 1.41 goals scored and 1.17 conceded per game recently; Al-Fateh are on 1.36 scored and 1.79 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Al-Fateh in 69%.
Last 58 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Al Taawon
Blended
Al-Fateh
Blended
Al Taawon (Home) vs Al-Fateh (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
Al Taawon
Blended
Al-Fateh
Blended
❓ Al Taawon vs Al-Fateh Form FAQs
What form are Al Taawon and Al-Fateh in coming into this match?
Al Taawon have gone 24W 14D 20L in their last 58 games (1.48 PPG), while Al-Fateh have gone 18W 13D 27L in their last 58 (1.16 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Al Taawon at home or Al-Fateh away?
Al Taawon's home record (1.61 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Al Taawon at home: 1.61 PPG; Al-Fateh away: 0.89 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
This section is based on the 10 H2H matches we hold for this pairing, spanning roughly 4 years from March 2022. All of them came in Pro League. The most recent was as recently as 5 September 2026, so it is a fresh reference point.
Streaks & Records
The biggest gap in our H2H data came on 7 Nov 2025, when Al Taawon won Al-Fateh 2-5 Al Taawon.
Al Taawon's record when hosting Al-Fateh specifically: 2W 2D 2L from 6 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
5
Al Taawon
3
Draws
2
Al-Fateh
Recent Meetings
❓ Al Taawon vs Al-Fateh H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between Al Taawon and Al-Fateh?
Across the 10 head-to-head matches in our data, Al Taawon have won 5, Al-Fateh have won 2, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Al Taawon and Al-Fateh last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 5 September 2026: Al Taawon 0-0 Al-Fateh.
Who has won more matches between Al Taawon and Al-Fateh?
Al Taawon have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from the 10 head-to-head matches in our data.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Al Taawon are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 75% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 39% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 36% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 43% of those situations.
Al-Fateh are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 75% of their matches.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Al Taawon 54%, Al-Fateh 57% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 39% (Al Taawon) and 50% (Al-Fateh).
On the defensive side: Al Taawon keep a clean sheet in 32% of their matches; Al-Fateh in 32%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Al Taawon home games / Al-Fateh away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Al Taawon vs Al-Fateh Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in Al Taawon and Al-Fateh matches?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 54% of Al Taawon's games and 57% of Al-Fateh's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Are Al Taawon and Al-Fateh matches usually high-scoring?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 39% of Al Taawon's recent games and 50% of Al-Fateh's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Al Taawon and Al-Fateh matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 75% of Al Taawon's recent matches and 75% of Al-Fateh's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Al Taawon edge out Al-Fateh 3-2.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Al Taawon beat Al-Fateh 3-2 at Al Taawon Arena, Regular Season - 25, in the Pro League. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Al Taawon 1.63 xG and Al-Fateh 1.18 xG, a combined 2.81. The scoreboard read 3-2 for 5 actual goals. Al Taawon beat their projection by 1.4 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Al-Fateh outscored their 1.18 projection by 0.8. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Al Taawon attack 1.01 / defence 0.90 against Al-Fateh attack 0.93 / defence 1.08, drawn from 58/58 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Al Taawon 47% | Draw 26% | Al-Fateh 27%, with Al Taawon to win its most likely call at 47%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 53%. The game delivered 5, so it went over — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 78% and landed. Over 3.5 was 31% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 57% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 47% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Al Taawon 38%, Al-Fateh 57%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 59%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Al Taawon's trading profile (58 games, 28 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 48% of their matches — today it did.
Al-Fateh's trading profile (58 games, 28 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 69% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Al Taawon 1.48 PPG, Al-Fateh 1.16 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Al Taawon win broke the near-deadlock. Al Taawon (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.64 average — above their attacking norm. Al-Fateh (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 1.11 average — above their attacking norm and shipped 3 against a 1.96 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). A strong night for the model: the result sat comfortably inside what the pre-match data projected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.