Al Riyadh 0-4 Al-Qadisiyah FC – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Al-Qadisiyah FC at 50% — recent form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Al Riyadh vs Al-Qadisiyah FC encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
Al-Qadisiyah FC make the trip to Prince Faisal bin Fahd Stadium to face Al Riyadh in Pro League (matchday 30). The match kicks off on Wednesday 29 April 2026 at 18:00 UK time.
Form
Al Riyadh (all games): 3W 2D 5L across their last 10 — 1.10 PPG. Last five: L W D W L. They are averaging 1.20 goals per game and conceding 1.50 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings (10%). Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.
Al Riyadh at home: 1W 4D 5L from their last 10 home games — 0.70 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 0.90 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Al-Qadisiyah FC's record over their last 10 games: 5W 4D 1L (1.90 PPG). Last five: W W L D D. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.30 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings (20%). Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches — a high rate that makes Yes a well-evidenced angle from their form.
Al-Qadisiyah FC away from home: 7W 1D 2L from their last 10 away games — 2.20 PPG on the road. They are averaging 2.60 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support. Both teams have scored in 90% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
The travelling side arrive in better shape. Al-Qadisiyah FC are 0.80 PPG clear of Al Riyadh over their recent games (1.90 vs 1.10). Backing the visitors outright or on Draw No Bet are both valid approaches where the price allows.
The BTTS picture is exceptionally clear (from Al Riyadh's last 10 home games and Al-Qadisiyah FC's last 10 away games) — both teams have scored in 70% of Al Riyadh's games and 90% of Al-Qadisiyah FC's. Both sides above 70% makes BTTS Yes one of the strongest standalone angles in this fixture.
Head-to-Head
Neither side has dominated the 3 H2H matches in our data: 1 wins for Al Riyadh, 2 for Al-Qadisiyah FC and 0 draws — leaving the H2H largely neutral. With only 3 H2H matches to go on, treat this as a light input.
The 3 H2H matches in our data averaged 2.7 goals per game — a neutral rate that gives no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent of those, on 4 Jan 2026, ended Al Riyadh 0–4 Al-Qadisiyah FC — a Al-Qadisiyah FC win.
The head-to-head data offers no strong steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the model and current market pricing should carry more weight for this fixture.
Trading & In-Play
Al Riyadh — key trading statistics (last 63 games, 31 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 71% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 83% of the time; of the 15 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 67%; of the 27 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 30%; BTTS occurs in 55% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 42% of games (home games).
Al-Qadisiyah FC — key trading statistics (last 63 games, 31 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 74% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 87% of the time; of the 10 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 30%; BTTS occurs in 61% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 58% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Al Riyadh 60% versus Al-Qadisiyah FC 57%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Al Riyadh 54% | Al-Qadisiyah FC 57%). There is an in-play dynamic worth noting: Al Riyadh surrender their half-time lead 67% of the time, while Al-Qadisiyah FC have come from behind at the break to draw or win in 30% of cases — a combination that makes laying the hosts at HT a potential angle.
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Al Riyadh 1.25 xG and Al-Qadisiyah FC 1.77 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Al Riyadh attack 0.822 / defence 0.942 | Al-Qadisiyah FC attack 1.371 / defence 0.979. League average goals — home 1.550 / away 1.374. Al-Qadisiyah FC have an above-average attack rating of 1.371, which lifts their away xG to 1.77. Data: built from Al Riyadh's last 63 games and Al-Qadisiyah FC's last 63.
Result probabilities: Al Riyadh 27% | Draw 23% | Al-Qadisiyah FC 50%. Fair-value odds: Al Riyadh 3.72 | Draw 4.29 | Al-Qadisiyah FC 2.01. Al-Qadisiyah FC hold a narrow Poisson edge at 50% — the draw (23%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 58% | BTTS Yes probability 59% | Total xG 3.02. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 58% — the 3.02 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 59% is only a slight lean — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates Al-Qadisiyah FC as the most likely outcome at 50% — moderate model lean. Recent form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw probability of 23% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Al-Qadisiyah FC if the outright odds are short.
The Poisson model projects 3.02 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 58% — reasonable conviction, supported by recent form (Al Riyadh's last 10 home games and Al-Qadisiyah FC's last 10 away games) averaging 3.1 goals per game.
Poisson assigns a 59% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate — both teams scored in: Al Riyadh 70% (last 10 home games) | Al-Qadisiyah FC 90% (last 10 away games).
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Al Riyadh vs Al-Qadisiyah FC | Competition: Pro League, matchday 30 | Venue: Prince Faisal bin Fahd Stadium • Kick-off: Wednesday 29 April 2026 at 18:00 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Al Riyadh 27% | Draw 23% | Al-Qadisiyah FC 50% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 58% (Under 42%) | BTTS Yes 59% (No 41%) | xG Al Riyadh 1.25 / Al-Qadisiyah FC 1.77 • Poisson strength factors: Al Riyadh attack 0.822 / def 0.942 | Al-Qadisiyah FC attack 1.371 / def 0.979 | league avg home 1.550 / away 1.374 • Poisson stance: Al-Qadisiyah FC (50%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.25
Al Riyadh xG
Expected Goals
1.77
Al-Qadisiyah FC xG
59%
BTTS
80%
Over 1.5
58%
Over 2.5
36%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Al Riyadh vs Al-Qadisiyah FC FAQs
What time does Al Riyadh vs Al-Qadisiyah FC kick off?
Al Riyadh vs Al-Qadisiyah FC kicked off at 18:00 UK time on Wednesday 29 April 2026 at Prince Faisal bin Fahd Stadium.
What was the final score in Al Riyadh vs Al-Qadisiyah FC?
Al Riyadh 0 - 4 Al-Qadisiyah FC.
Where is Al Riyadh vs Al-Qadisiyah FC being played?
The match is being played at Prince Faisal bin Fahd Stadium.
What competition is Al Riyadh vs Al-Qadisiyah FC part of?
Al Riyadh vs Al-Qadisiyah FC is a Pro League fixture (matchday 30) (Saudi-Arabia).
Who is favourite to win Al Riyadh vs Al-Qadisiyah FC?
Our statistical model gives Al Riyadh a 27% chance of winning, Al-Qadisiyah FC a 50% chance, and a 23% chance of a draw — making Al-Qadisiyah FC the favourite.
Will both teams score in Al Riyadh vs Al-Qadisiyah FC?
Our model estimates a 59% probability that both Al Riyadh and Al-Qadisiyah FC will score, so it leans towards BTTS Yes.
Will Al Riyadh vs Al-Qadisiyah FC have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 58%, so it leans towards over 2.5 goals.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Al Riyadh's attacking strength (0.82x league average) is weighed against Al-Qadisiyah FC's defensive record (0.98x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.25. Flip it around — Al-Qadisiyah FC's attack (1.37x) against Al Riyadh's defence (0.94x) — and the away total comes out at 1.77.
These ratings are built from Al Riyadh's last 63 games and Al-Qadisiyah FC's last 63 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 12.2%. Close behind: 1-2 (9.6%), 0-2 (7.7%). Together the top three scorelines make up 29% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Al-Qadisiyah FC Win
27%
3.72
23%
4.29
50%
2.01
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
10.8%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 2
9.6%
Away win
0 – 1
8.7%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.25
Al Riyadh xG
Total xG
3.02
1.77
Al-Qadisiyah FC xG
3.72
27%
Home win
4.29
23%
Draw
2.01
50%
Away win
Goals Markets
80%
Over 1.5
1.25
20%
Under 1.5
5.00
58%
Over 2.5
1.72
42%
Under 2.5
2.38
36%
Over 3.5
2.78
64%
Under 3.5
1.56
19%
Over 4.5
5.26
81%
Under 4.5
1.23
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
59%
BTTS Yes
1.69
41%
BTTS No
2.45
Clean Sheet
17%
5.90
29%
3.48
Win to Nil
5%
21.95
14%
6.98
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4.9 | 8.7 | 7.7 | 4.5 | 2.0 | 0.7 |
| 1 | 6.1 | 10.8 | 9.6 | 5.7 | 2.5 | 0.9 |
| 2 | 3.8 | 6.7 | 6.0 | 3.5 | 1.6 | 0.6 |
| 3 | 1.6 | 2.8 | 2.5 | 1.5 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 0.5 | 0.9 | 0.8 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Al Riyadh vs Al-Qadisiyah FC Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for Al Riyadh vs Al-Qadisiyah FC?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.2%.
How many goals are Al Riyadh and Al-Qadisiyah FC expected to score?
The model projects 1.25 expected goals for Al Riyadh and 1.77 for Al-Qadisiyah FC, a combined total of 3.02.
How confident is the prediction model for Al Riyadh vs Al-Qadisiyah FC?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 50%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Al Riyadh come into this having played 63 games, going 15W 16D 32L for 0.97 points per game. Their last five reads L-W-D-W-L.
On the other side, Al-Qadisiyah FC sit at 2.06 PPG from 63 outings (39W 13D 11L), a run that reads W-W-L-D-D across their last five.
Al-Qadisiyah FC carry the stronger recent form of the two, 1.09 PPG clear of Al Riyadh — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
How They Fare by Venue
Al Riyadh's home form reads 8W 10D 13L across their last 31 home games, a 1.10 PPG return.
Away from home, Al-Qadisiyah FC have taken 1.81 points per game from their last 31 away games (17W 5D 9L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Al-Qadisiyah FC come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Attack vs Defence
Al Riyadh are averaging 1.06 goals scored and 1.68 conceded per game recently; Al-Qadisiyah FC are on 1.90 scored and 0.98 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Al Riyadh have seen both teams score in 60% of their recent games.
Last 63 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Al Riyadh
Current Season
Al-Qadisiyah FC
Current Season
Al Riyadh (Home) vs Al-Qadisiyah FC (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
Al Riyadh
Current Season
Al-Qadisiyah FC
Current Season
❓ Al Riyadh vs Al-Qadisiyah FC Form FAQs
What form are Al Riyadh and Al-Qadisiyah FC in coming into this match?
Al Riyadh have gone 15W 16D 32L in their last 63 games (0.97 PPG), while Al-Qadisiyah FC have gone 39W 13D 11L in their last 63 (2.06 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Al Riyadh at home or Al-Qadisiyah FC away?
Al-Qadisiyah FC's away record (1.81 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Al Riyadh at home: 1.10 PPG; Al-Qadisiyah FC away: 1.81 PPG.
Have Al Riyadh or Al-Qadisiyah FC been keeping clean sheets recently?
Al Riyadh have kept a clean sheet in 16% of their recent games, Al-Qadisiyah FC in 35%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
Our data holds 5 H2H matches between Al Riyadh and Al-Qadisiyah FC, the earliest from October 2024. All of them came in Pro League. The most recent was as recently as 29 October 2026, so it is a fresh reference point.
Notable Numbers
There's a clear recent trend here: Al-Qadisiyah FC have taken the most recent 4 H2H results in our data.
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Al-Qadisiyah FC won Al Riyadh 0-6 Al-Qadisiyah FC on 29 Oct 2026, the biggest margin in the H2H matches we hold.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Al Riyadh have gone 1W 0D 2L from the 3 H2H matches in our data played on their own ground against Al-Qadisiyah FC — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 5 Meetings
1
Al Riyadh
0
Draws
4
Al-Qadisiyah FC
Recent Meetings
❓ Al Riyadh vs Al-Qadisiyah FC H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between Al Riyadh and Al-Qadisiyah FC?
Across the 5 head-to-head matches in our data, Al Riyadh have won 1, Al-Qadisiyah FC have won 4, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Al Riyadh and Al-Qadisiyah FC last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 29 October 2026: Al Riyadh 0-6 Al-Qadisiyah FC.
Who has won more matches between Al Riyadh and Al-Qadisiyah FC?
Al-Qadisiyah FC have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from the 5 head-to-head matches in our data.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Al Riyadh are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 71% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 31% of those situations.
Al-Qadisiyah FC are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 74% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 36% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 18% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 29% of those situations.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Al Riyadh 55%, Al-Qadisiyah FC 61% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 42% (Al Riyadh) and 58% (Al-Qadisiyah FC).
On the defensive side: Al Riyadh have failed to score in 32% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Al Riyadh home games / Al-Qadisiyah FC away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Al Riyadh vs Al-Qadisiyah FC Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in Al Riyadh and Al-Qadisiyah FC matches?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 55% of Al Riyadh's games and 61% of Al-Qadisiyah FC's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Are Al Riyadh and Al-Qadisiyah FC matches usually high-scoring?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 42% of Al Riyadh's recent games and 58% of Al-Qadisiyah FC's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Al Riyadh and Al-Qadisiyah FC matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 71% of Al Riyadh's recent matches and 74% of Al-Qadisiyah FC's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Dominant Al-Qadisiyah FC run riot with a 0-4 hammering of Al Riyadh.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Al-Qadisiyah FC beat Al Riyadh 0-4 at Prince Faisal bin Fahd Stadium, Regular Season - 30, in the Pro League. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Al Riyadh 1.25 xG and Al-Qadisiyah FC 1.77 xG, a combined 3.02. The scoreboard read 0-4 for 4 actual goals. Al Riyadh fell 1.2 short of their projected output. Al-Qadisiyah FC outscored their 1.77 projection by 2.2. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Al Riyadh attack 0.82 / defence 0.94 against Al-Qadisiyah FC attack 1.37 / defence 0.98, drawn from 63/63 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Al Riyadh 27% | Draw 23% | Al-Qadisiyah FC 50%, with Al-Qadisiyah FC to win its most likely call at 50%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 58%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 80% and landed. Over 3.5 was 36% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 59% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 56% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Al Riyadh 54%, Al-Qadisiyah FC 57%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 59%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Al Riyadh's trading profile (63 games, 31 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 60% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 29% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Al-Qadisiyah FC's trading profile (63 games, 31 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 57% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 35% of the time, and duly kept one.
Form vs Result
On form, Al-Qadisiyah FC arrived the stronger side — 2.06 PPG against 0.97. The form guide was vindicated by the result. Al Riyadh (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.00 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 4 against a 1.32 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Al-Qadisiyah FC (home/away splits) scored 4 against a 1.77 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 0 against a 1.23 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss), form (hit). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.