Al-Nassr 1-0 Al-Ettifaq – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Al-Nassr at 73% — recent form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Al-Nassr vs Al-Ettifaq encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
Al-Nassr welcome Al-Ettifaq to King Saud University Stadium in Pro League (matchday 29). Kick-off is Wednesday 15 April 2026 at 20:00 UK time.
Recent Form
Across their last 10 games, Al-Nassr have gone 10W 0D 0L — a 3.00 PPG return. Last five: W W W W W. They are averaging 3.00 goals per game — a high-scoring output that makes them a genuine attacking threat in any fixture. Defensively, conceding just 0.30 per game is an exceptional defensive record. 8 clean sheets from 10 games (80%) is a standout defensive return — they are keeping their net clean in more than half their matches. Both teams have scored in only 20% of their games — a low BTTS rate that suggests clean sheets are a regular occurrence.
In front of their own supporters, Al-Nassr have posted 9W 0D 1L from their last 10 home games — 2.70 PPG. They are averaging 2.60 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. 5 clean sheets from their last 10 home games (50%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at home.
Al-Ettifaq — last 10 games: 4W 1D 5L — 1.30 PPG. Last five: L D L W L. Their scoring rate of 1.40 per game is modest, conceding 1.90 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings (20%).
Al-Ettifaq's form when playing away from home: 4W 1D 5L across their last 10 road games (1.30 PPG). Away from home they average 1.10 goals scored and 1.90 conceded per game.
On current form, Al-Nassr have the edge — a 1.70 PPG advantage (3.00 vs 1.30) represents a meaningful gap. That momentum makes them the form-based pick, though if the outright price looks short, Draw No Bet is worth comparing.
H2H
There is little to separate the sides in our head-to-head data. From 8 H2H matches, Al-Nassr have won 3, Al-Ettifaq 2, with 3 draws — a balanced record that offers no clear steer on its own.
The 8 H2H matches in our data have been high-scoring — 3.2 goals per game on average — which backs the Over 2.5 market from the head-to-head side. The most recent of those, on 30 Dec 2025, ended Al-Nassr 2–2 Al-Ettifaq — a draw.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H signal is in the goals market — at 3.2 goals per game, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle from the head-to-head data.
In-Play Data
Al-Nassr trading profile (last 62 games, 30 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 73% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 93% of those occasions; they lead at the break 58% of the time; of the 6 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 67%; BTTS occurs in 63% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 63% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 45%.
Al-Ettifaq trading profile (last 62 games, 30 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 77% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 75% of the time; of the 15 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 33%; of the 24 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 29%; BTTS occurs in 63% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 57% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 36%.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Al-Nassr 61% versus Al-Ettifaq 58%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Al-Nassr 69% | Al-Ettifaq 56%). Note also that Al-Ettifaq surrender HT leads in 33% of cases while Al-Nassr recover from half-time deficits to draw or win 67% of the time — a dynamic that could influence in-play positioning.
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Al-Nassr 2.60 xG and Al-Ettifaq 0.93 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Al-Nassr attack 1.419 / defence 0.794 | Al-Ettifaq attack 0.827 / defence 1.160. League average goals — home 1.578 / away 1.420. Al-Nassr carry an above-average attack rating of 1.419 — their 2.60 xG reflects attacking quality above the league norm. Al-Nassr have a tight defence (rating 0.794), which is pulling Al-Ettifaq's projected output down. Data: built from Al-Nassr's last 62 games and Al-Ettifaq's last 62.
Result probabilities: Al-Nassr 73% | Draw 16% | Al-Ettifaq 11%. Fair-value odds: Al-Nassr 1.37 | Draw 6.32 | Al-Ettifaq 8.95. The model has a clear lean to Al-Nassr (73%) — a 57pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 68% | BTTS Yes probability 56% | Total xG 3.53. Over 2.5 is the model's clear signal at 68% — a total xG of 3.53 means the expected score alone exceeds the 2.5 threshold, making the Over not just likely but structurally supported by both sides' attack/defence profiles. BTTS Yes at 56% is only a slight lean — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Al-Nassr are the pick at 73% — clear model lean. Recent form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support.
On the goals line, Poisson's 3.53 combined xG gives a 68% probability to Over 2.5 — strong conviction, supported by recent form (Al-Nassr's last 10 home games and Al-Ettifaq's last 10 away games) averaging 3.2 goals per game and the H2H data averaging 3.2 goals per game across 8 H2H matches.
Poisson assigns a 56% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates are neutral — both teams scored in: Al-Nassr 50% (last 10 home games) | Al-Ettifaq 40% (last 10 away games).
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Al-Nassr vs Al-Ettifaq | Competition: Pro League, matchday 29 | Venue: King Saud University Stadium • Kick-off: Wednesday 15 April 2026 at 20:00 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Al-Nassr 73% | Draw 16% | Al-Ettifaq 11% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 68% (Under 32%) | BTTS Yes 56% (No 44%) | xG Al-Nassr 2.60 / Al-Ettifaq 0.93 • Poisson strength factors: Al-Nassr attack 1.419 / def 0.794 | Al-Ettifaq attack 0.827 / def 1.160 | league avg home 1.578 / away 1.420 • Poisson stance: Al-Nassr (73%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
2.60
Al-Nassr xG
Expected Goals
0.93
Al-Ettifaq xG
56%
BTTS
87%
Over 1.5
68%
Over 2.5
47%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Al-Nassr vs Al-Ettifaq FAQs
What time does Al-Nassr vs Al-Ettifaq kick off?
Al-Nassr vs Al-Ettifaq kicked off at 20:00 UK time on Wednesday 15 April 2026 at King Saud University Stadium.
What was the final score in Al-Nassr vs Al-Ettifaq?
Al-Nassr 1 - 0 Al-Ettifaq.
Where is Al-Nassr vs Al-Ettifaq being played?
The match is being played at King Saud University Stadium.
What competition is Al-Nassr vs Al-Ettifaq part of?
Al-Nassr vs Al-Ettifaq is a Pro League fixture (matchday 29) (Saudi-Arabia).
Who is favourite to win Al-Nassr vs Al-Ettifaq?
Our statistical model gives Al-Nassr a 73% chance of winning, Al-Ettifaq a 11% chance, and a 16% chance of a draw — making Al-Nassr the favourite.
Will both teams score in Al-Nassr vs Al-Ettifaq?
Our model estimates a 56% probability that both Al-Nassr and Al-Ettifaq will score, so it leans towards BTTS Yes.
Will Al-Nassr vs Al-Ettifaq have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 68%, so it leans towards over 2.5 goals.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
The model rates Al-Nassr's attack at 1.42x the league average against Al-Ettifaq's defence at 1.16x — combine the two and it projects 2.60 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Al-Ettifaq's attack versus Al-Nassr's defence, projects 0.93 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from Al-Nassr's last 62 games and Al-Ettifaq's last 62 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 2-0 carries the highest individual probability at 9.9% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 2-1 (9.2%), 3-0 (8.6%). Together the top three scorelines make up 28% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Al-Nassr Win
73%
1.37
16%
6.32
11%
8.95
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
2 – 0
9.9%
Home win
Most likely
2 – 1
9.2%
Home win
3 – 0
8.6%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
2.60
Al-Nassr xG
Total xG
3.53
0.93
Al-Ettifaq xG
1.37
73%
Home win
6.32
16%
Draw
8.95
11%
Away win
Goals Markets
87%
Over 1.5
1.15
13%
Under 1.5
7.69
68%
Over 2.5
1.47
32%
Under 2.5
3.12
47%
Over 3.5
2.13
53%
Under 3.5
1.89
28%
Over 4.5
3.57
72%
Under 4.5
1.39
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
56%
BTTS Yes
1.78
44%
BTTS No
2.28
Clean Sheet
39%
2.54
7%
13.44
Win to Nil
29%
3.48
1%
120.29
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 2.9 | 2.7 | 1.3 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 1 | 7.6 | 7.1 | 3.3 | 1.0 | 0.2 | – |
| 2 | 9.9 | 9.2 | 4.3 | 1.3 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 8.6 | 8.0 | 3.7 | 1.2 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 5.6 | 5.2 | 2.4 | 0.8 | 0.2 | – |
| 5 | 2.9 | 2.7 | 1.3 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Al-Nassr vs Al-Ettifaq Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for Al-Nassr vs Al-Ettifaq?
Our Poisson model rates 2-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 9.9%.
How many goals are Al-Nassr and Al-Ettifaq expected to score?
The model projects 2.60 expected goals for Al-Nassr and 0.93 for Al-Ettifaq, a combined total of 3.53.
How confident is the prediction model for Al-Nassr vs Al-Ettifaq?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 73%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Al-Nassr's recent record stands at 44W 8D 10L from 62 games, a 2.26 PPG return, with W-W-W-W-W in the last five.
Al-Ettifaq, meanwhile, have gone 26W 14D 22L across 62 games — 1.48 PPG, with L-D-L-W-L in their last five.
The points-per-game comparison favours Al-Nassr by 0.78 — a real, if not enormous, edge over Al-Ettifaq heading into this one.
Venue Form
At home specifically, Al-Nassr have managed 21W 5D 4L from their last 30 home games — 2.27 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Al-Ettifaq's away record stands at 13W 7D 10L across their last 30 away games, a 1.53 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Al-Nassr come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Al-Nassr are averaging 2.52 goals scored and 0.98 conceded per game recently; Al-Ettifaq are on 1.37 scored and 1.52 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Al-Nassr have seen both teams score in 61% of their recent games.
Defensively: Al-Nassr have kept a clean sheet in 39% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 62 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Al-Nassr
Current Season
Al-Ettifaq
Current Season
Al-Nassr (Home) vs Al-Ettifaq (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
Al-Nassr
Current Season
Al-Ettifaq
Current Season
❓ Al-Nassr vs Al-Ettifaq Form FAQs
What form are Al-Nassr and Al-Ettifaq in coming into this match?
Al-Nassr have gone 44W 8D 10L in their last 62 games (2.26 PPG), while Al-Ettifaq have gone 26W 14D 22L in their last 62 (1.48 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Al-Nassr at home or Al-Ettifaq away?
Al-Nassr's home record (2.27 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Al-Nassr at home: 2.27 PPG; Al-Ettifaq away: 1.53 PPG.
Have Al-Nassr or Al-Ettifaq been keeping clean sheets recently?
Al-Nassr have kept a clean sheet in 39% of their recent games, Al-Ettifaq in 24%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
This section is based on the 10 H2H matches we hold for this pairing, spanning roughly 4 years from March 2022. All of them came in Pro League. The most recent was as recently as 25 August 2026, so it is a fresh reference point.
Streaks & Records
There's a clear recent trend here: Al-Nassr have taken the most recent 2 H2H results in our data.
The biggest gap in our H2H data came on 20 Sep 2024, when Al-Nassr won Al-Ettifaq 0-3 Al-Nassr.
Al-Nassr's record when hosting Al-Ettifaq specifically: 3W 0D 1L from 4 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
5
Al-Nassr
3
Draws
2
Al-Ettifaq
Recent Meetings
❓ Al-Nassr vs Al-Ettifaq H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between Al-Nassr and Al-Ettifaq?
Across the 10 head-to-head matches in our data, Al-Nassr have won 5, Al-Ettifaq have won 2, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Al-Nassr and Al-Ettifaq last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 25 August 2026: Al-Ettifaq 2-3 Al-Nassr.
Who has won more matches between Al-Nassr and Al-Ettifaq?
Al-Nassr have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from the 10 head-to-head matches in our data.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Al-Nassr are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 73% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 63% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 21% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 100% of those situations.
Al-Ettifaq are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 77% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 44% of those situations.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Al-Nassr 63%, Al-Ettifaq 63% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 63% for Al-Nassr and 57% for Al-Ettifaq. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 40% and 37% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Al-Nassr keep a clean sheet in 37% of their matches.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Al-Nassr home games / Al-Ettifaq away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Al-Nassr vs Al-Ettifaq Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in Al-Nassr and Al-Ettifaq matches?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 63% of Al-Nassr's games and 63% of Al-Ettifaq's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Are Al-Nassr and Al-Ettifaq matches usually high-scoring?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 63% of Al-Nassr's matches and 57% of Al-Ettifaq's.
Do Al-Nassr and Al-Ettifaq matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 73% of Al-Nassr's recent matches and 77% of Al-Ettifaq's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Al-Nassr edge out Al-Ettifaq 1-0.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Al-Nassr beat Al-Ettifaq 1-0 at King Saud University Stadium, Regular Season - 29, in the Pro League. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Al-Nassr 2.60 xG and Al-Ettifaq 0.93 xG, a combined 3.53. The scoreboard read 1-0 for 1 actual goal. Al-Nassr fell 1.6 short of their projected output. Al-Ettifaq landed 0.9 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Al-Nassr attack 1.42 / defence 0.79 against Al-Ettifaq attack 0.83 / defence 1.16, drawn from 62/62 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Al-Nassr 73% | Draw 16% | Al-Ettifaq 11%, with Al-Nassr to win its most likely call at 73%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 68%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 87% and missed. Over 3.5 was 47% and did not. On both teams to score, the model sat at 56% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 63% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Al-Nassr 69%, Al-Ettifaq 56%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 60%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Al-Nassr's trading profile (62 games, 30 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 61% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 39% of the time, and duly kept one.
Al-Ettifaq's trading profile (62 games, 30 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 58% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
On form, Al-Nassr arrived the stronger side — 2.26 PPG against 1.48. That form edge translated into the three points. Al-Nassr (home/away splits) managed 1 against a 2.40 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 0.93 average — tighter than their form line. Al-Ettifaq (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.43 scoring average — below par going forward.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (hit). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.