Al-Nassr 2-0 Al-Ahli Jeddah – Result & Analysis

Poisson model favours Al-Nassr (46%) — recent form and the head-to-head data both point the same way as Al-Nassr face Al-Ahli Jeddah.

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Full Analysis

King Saud University Stadium plays host to Al-Nassr versus Al-Ahli Jeddah in Pro League (matchday 30). Kick-off: Wednesday 29 April 2026 at 20:00 UK time.

Current Form

Al-Nassr's record over their last 10 games: 10W 0D 0L (3.00 PPG). Last five: W W W W W. They are averaging 3.00 goals per game — a high-scoring output that makes them a genuine attacking threat in any fixture. Defensively, conceding just 0.30 per game is an exceptional defensive record. 8 clean sheets from 10 games (80%) is a standout defensive return — they are keeping their net clean in more than half their matches. Both teams have scored in only 20% of their games — a low BTTS rate that suggests clean sheets are a regular occurrence.

Al-Nassr at home: 9W 0D 1L from their last 10 home games — 2.70 PPG on home soil. They are averaging 2.50 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. 6 clean sheets from their last 10 home games (60%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at home.

Al-Ahli Jeddah have collected 2.30 PPG across their last 10 games: 7W 2D 1L. Last five: W W L W D. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.20 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. Defensively, 0.80 goals conceded per game is elite-level — a side this difficult to score against is a real threat to Over 2.5 and BTTS Yes. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not.

Al-Ahli Jeddah away from home: 6W 2D 2L from their last 10 away games — 2.00 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 1.60 goals scored and 0.80 conceded per game. 6 away clean sheets from their last 10 away games (60%) — they are hard to break down on the road.

Form favours the hosts. Al-Nassr's 3.00 PPG return is 0.70 points per game ahead of Al-Ahli Jeddah's 2.30 — a genuine gap in recent results that provides a statistically grounded case for backing the home side.

H2H Analysis

Across the 7 H2H matches in our data, Al-Nassr have had the better of this match-up — 4 wins, with Al-Ahli Jeddah managing 1 and 2 draws.

Goals have been a feature of this fixture — the 7 H2H matches in our data averaged 3.6 per game, which gives Over 2.5 a solid head-to-head foundation. The most recent of those, on 2 Jan 2026, ended Al-Nassr 2–3 Al-Ahli Jeddah — a Al-Ahli Jeddah win.

From a betting standpoint, the H2H data backs both Al-Nassr and goals — 4 wins from 7 H2H matches and an average of 3.6 goals per game give the home win and Over 2.5 combination a head-to-head case.

Trading

Al-Nassr half-time and goal-timing data (last 62 games, 30 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 73% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 93% of those occasions; they lead at the break 58% of the time; of the 6 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 67%; BTTS occurs in 60% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 63% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 45%; they keep a clean sheet 40% of the time.

Al-Ahli Jeddah half-time and goal-timing data (last 62 games, 30 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 60% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 90% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 53% of those occasions; they lead at the break 47% of the time; of the 11 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 64%; BTTS occurs in 37% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 37% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 36%; they keep a clean sheet 45% of the time.

BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Al-Nassr 60% versus Al-Ahli Jeddah 48%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Al-Nassr 69% | Al-Ahli Jeddah 50%).

Poisson Model

The Poisson distribution model projects Al-Nassr 1.47 xG and Al-Ahli Jeddah 1.10 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Al-Nassr attack 1.335 / defence 0.743 | Al-Ahli Jeddah attack 1.063 / defence 0.721. League average goals — home 1.526 / away 1.396. Al-Nassr carry an above-average attack rating of 1.335 — their 1.47 xG reflects attacking quality above the league norm. Al-Ahli Jeddah bring a tight defence (rating 0.721, below 1 = concedes less than average) — this is pulling Al-Nassr's projected output down. Al-Nassr have a tight defence (rating 0.743), which is pulling Al-Ahli Jeddah's projected output down. Data: built from Al-Nassr's last 63 games and Al-Ahli Jeddah's last 62.

Result probabilities: Al-Nassr 46% | Draw 26% | Al-Ahli Jeddah 28%. Fair-value odds: Al-Nassr 2.20 | Draw 3.82 | Al-Ahli Jeddah 3.53. Al-Nassr hold a narrow Poisson edge at 46% — the draw (26%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.

Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 47% | BTTS Yes probability 51% | Total xG 2.57. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 47%/53% — the total xG of 2.57 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS Yes at 51% is only a slight lean — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.

Verdict

The Poisson model's primary lean is Al-Nassr at 46% — moderate model lean. Recent form and the head-to-head data both align with the Poisson read — multi-source corroboration increases confidence in this selection. Draw probability of 26% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Al-Nassr if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 28% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.

Poisson projects 2.57 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 53% probability — low conviction — though the H2H data averaging 3.6 goals per game across 7 H2H matches points the other way.

On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 51% on Yes. This conflicts with form data — both teams scored in: Al-Nassr 40% (last 10 home games) | Al-Ahli Jeddah 40% (last 10 away games), a notable divergence.

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