Al Kholood 1-4 Al-Qadisiyah FC – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model favours Al-Qadisiyah FC (71%) — recent form and the head-to-head data both point the same way as Al Kholood face Al-Qadisiyah FC.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
Al-Qadisiyah FC make the trip to Al-Hazem Club Stadium to face Al Kholood in Pro League (matchday 25). The match kicks off on Saturday 7 March 2026 at 19:00 UK time.
Form
Al Kholood (all games): 4W 1D 5L across their last 10 — 1.30 PPG. Last five: W L L W W. They are averaging 1.30 goals per game and conceding 1.50 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings (20%).
Al Kholood's home record over their last 10 home games: 1W 0D 9L (0.30 PPG). At home they are averaging 0.60 goals scored and 2.20 conceded per game. Somewhat surprisingly, their home PPG of 0.30 lags behind their overall 1.30 — home advantage has not translated into better results recently.
Al-Qadisiyah FC have collected 2.40 PPG across their last 10 games: 7W 3D 0L. Last five: D W W W D. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.40 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings (30%). Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.
On the road, Al-Qadisiyah FC have gone 8W 0D 2L in their last 10 away fixtures (2.40 PPG). They are averaging 2.30 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
The travelling side arrive in better shape. Al-Qadisiyah FC are 1.10 PPG clear of Al Kholood over their recent games (2.40 vs 1.30). Backing the visitors outright or on Draw No Bet are both valid approaches where the price allows.
H2H History
Across the 3 H2H matches in our data, Al-Qadisiyah FC have the stronger record — 3 wins to Al Kholood's 0, with 0 draws. With only 3 H2H matches to go on, treat this as a light input.
The 3 H2H matches in our data have been high-scoring — 4.0 goals per game on average — which backs the Over 2.5 market from the head-to-head side. The most recent of those, on 6 Nov 2025, ended Al Kholood 0–4 Al-Qadisiyah FC — a Al-Qadisiyah FC win.
The H2H data backs the away side. Al-Qadisiyah FC have won 3 of 3 H2H matches, and at 4.0 goals per game the goals market also points upward — the away win and Over 2.5 combination has a head-to-head case.
Trading Data
Al Kholood goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (last 58 games, 28 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 71% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 94% of the time; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 61% of games (home games); they fail to score in 33% of games.
Al-Qadisiyah FC goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (last 58 games, 28 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 71% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 87% of the time; BTTS occurs in 57% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 57% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Al Kholood 55% versus Al-Qadisiyah FC 53%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Al Kholood 60% | Al-Qadisiyah FC 55%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Al Kholood 0.88 xG and Al-Qadisiyah FC 2.44 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Al Kholood attack 0.664 / defence 1.268 | Al-Qadisiyah FC attack 1.370 / defence 0.868. League average goals — home 1.518 / away 1.403. Al Kholood's attack rating of 0.664 is below the league average, which holds their xG down at 0.88. Al-Qadisiyah FC have an above-average attack rating of 1.370, which lifts their away xG to 2.44. Al Kholood's defence rating of 1.268 (above 1 = concedes more than average) is pushing Al-Qadisiyah FC's projected output up. Data: built from Al Kholood's last 58 games and Al-Qadisiyah FC's last 58.
Result probabilities: Al Kholood 11% | Draw 18% | Al-Qadisiyah FC 71%. Fair-value odds: Al Kholood 9.15 | Draw 5.58 | Al-Qadisiyah FC 1.41. The model has a clear lean to Al-Qadisiyah FC (71%) — a 53pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 64% | BTTS Yes probability 54% | Total xG 3.31. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 64% — the 3.31 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 54% is only a slight lean — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates Al-Qadisiyah FC as the most likely outcome at 71% — clear model lean. Recent form and the head-to-head data both align with the Poisson read — multi-source corroboration increases confidence in this selection. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 18% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
The Poisson model projects 3.31 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 64% — strong conviction, supported by recent form (Al Kholood's last 10 home games and Al-Qadisiyah FC's last 10 away games) averaging 3.1 goals per game and the H2H data averaging 4.0 goals per game across 3 H2H matches.
Poisson assigns a 54% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate — both teams scored in: Al Kholood 40% (last 10 home games) | Al-Qadisiyah FC 70% (last 10 away games).
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Al Kholood vs Al-Qadisiyah FC | Competition: Pro League, matchday 25 | Venue: Al-Hazem Club Stadium • Kick-off: Saturday 7 March 2026 at 19:00 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Al Kholood 11% | Draw 18% | Al-Qadisiyah FC 71% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 64% (Under 36%) | BTTS Yes 54% (No 46%) | xG Al Kholood 0.88 / Al-Qadisiyah FC 2.44 • Poisson strength factors: Al Kholood attack 0.664 / def 1.268 | Al-Qadisiyah FC attack 1.370 / def 0.868 | league avg home 1.518 / away 1.403 • Poisson stance: Al-Qadisiyah FC (71%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
0.88
Al Kholood xG
Expected Goals
2.44
Al-Qadisiyah FC xG
54%
BTTS
85%
Over 1.5
64%
Over 2.5
42%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Al Kholood vs Al-Qadisiyah FC FAQs
What time does Al Kholood vs Al-Qadisiyah FC kick off?
Al Kholood vs Al-Qadisiyah FC kicked off at 19:00 UK time on Saturday 7 March 2026 at Al-Hazem Club Stadium.
What was the final score in Al Kholood vs Al-Qadisiyah FC?
Al Kholood 1 - 4 Al-Qadisiyah FC.
Where is Al Kholood vs Al-Qadisiyah FC being played?
The match is being played at Al-Hazem Club Stadium.
What competition is Al Kholood vs Al-Qadisiyah FC part of?
Al Kholood vs Al-Qadisiyah FC is a Pro League fixture (matchday 25) (Saudi-Arabia).
Who is favourite to win Al Kholood vs Al-Qadisiyah FC?
Our statistical model gives Al Kholood a 11% chance of winning, Al-Qadisiyah FC a 71% chance, and a 18% chance of a draw — making Al-Qadisiyah FC the favourite.
Will both teams score in Al Kholood vs Al-Qadisiyah FC?
Our model estimates a 54% probability that both Al Kholood and Al-Qadisiyah FC will score, so it leans towards BTTS Yes.
Will Al Kholood vs Al-Qadisiyah FC have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 64%, so it leans towards over 2.5 goals.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Al Kholood's attacking strength (0.66x league average) is weighed against Al-Qadisiyah FC's defensive record (0.87x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 0.88. Flip it around — Al-Qadisiyah FC's attack (1.37x) against Al Kholood's defence (1.27x) — and the away total comes out at 2.44.
These ratings are built from Al Kholood's last 58 games and Al-Qadisiyah FC's last 58 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 0-2, at 10.8%. Close behind: 1-2 (9.5%), 0-3 (8.8%). Together the top three scorelines make up 29% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Al-Qadisiyah FC Win
11%
9.15
18%
5.58
71%
1.41
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 2
10.8%
Away win
Most likely
1 – 2
9.5%
Away win
0 – 1
8.9%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
0.88
Al Kholood xG
Total xG
3.31
2.44
Al-Qadisiyah FC xG
9.15
11%
Home win
5.58
18%
Draw
1.41
71%
Away win
Goals Markets
84%
Over 1.5
1.19
16%
Under 1.5
6.25
64%
Over 2.5
1.56
36%
Under 2.5
2.78
42%
Over 3.5
2.38
58%
Under 3.5
1.72
24%
Over 4.5
4.17
76%
Under 4.5
1.32
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
54%
BTTS Yes
1.86
46%
BTTS No
2.17
Clean Sheet
9%
11.44
42%
2.40
Win to Nil
1%
104.65
30%
3.37
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 3.6 | 8.9 | 10.8 | 8.8 | 5.4 | 2.6 |
| 1 | 3.2 | 7.8 | 9.5 | 7.7 | 4.7 | 2.3 |
| 2 | 1.4 | 3.4 | 4.1 | 3.4 | 2.1 | 1.0 |
| 3 | 0.4 | 1.0 | 1.2 | 1.0 | 0.6 | 0.3 |
| 4 | 0.1 | 0.2 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.1 |
| 5 | – | – | – | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Al Kholood vs Al-Qadisiyah FC Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for Al Kholood vs Al-Qadisiyah FC?
Our Poisson model rates 0-2 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 10.8%.
How many goals are Al Kholood and Al-Qadisiyah FC expected to score?
The model projects 0.88 expected goals for Al Kholood and 2.44 for Al-Qadisiyah FC, a combined total of 3.31.
How confident is the prediction model for Al Kholood vs Al-Qadisiyah FC?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 71%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Al Kholood's recent record stands at 20W 5D 33L from 58 games, a 1.12 PPG return, with W-L-L-W-W in the last five.
Al-Qadisiyah FC, meanwhile, have gone 37W 11D 10L across 58 games — 2.10 PPG, with D-W-W-W-D in their last five.
The points-per-game comparison favours Al-Qadisiyah FC by 0.98 — a real, if not enormous, edge over Al Kholood heading into this one.
Home & Away Splits
At home specifically, Al Kholood have managed 11W 2D 15L from their last 28 home games — 1.25 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Al-Qadisiyah FC's away record stands at 16W 4D 8L across their last 28 away games, a 1.86 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Al-Qadisiyah FC come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Al Kholood are averaging 1.28 goals scored and 1.83 conceded per game recently; Al-Qadisiyah FC are on 1.86 scored and 0.91 conceded.
Defensively: Al-Qadisiyah FC in 38% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 58 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Al Kholood
Blended
Al-Qadisiyah FC
Blended
Al Kholood (Home) vs Al-Qadisiyah FC (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
Al Kholood
Blended
Al-Qadisiyah FC
Blended
❓ Al Kholood vs Al-Qadisiyah FC Form FAQs
What form are Al Kholood and Al-Qadisiyah FC in coming into this match?
Al Kholood have gone 20W 5D 33L in their last 58 games (1.12 PPG), while Al-Qadisiyah FC have gone 37W 11D 10L in their last 58 (2.10 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Al Kholood at home or Al-Qadisiyah FC away?
Al-Qadisiyah FC's away record (1.86 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Al Kholood at home: 1.25 PPG; Al-Qadisiyah FC away: 1.86 PPG.
Have Al Kholood or Al-Qadisiyah FC been keeping clean sheets recently?
Al Kholood have kept a clean sheet in 14% of their recent games, Al-Qadisiyah FC in 38%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
We have 5 H2H matches between these sides on record, dating back to December 2024 — enough to show some patterns. All of them came in Pro League. The most recent was as recently as 9 October 2026, so it is a fresh reference point.
Records & Recent Trends
There's a clear recent trend here: Al-Qadisiyah FC have taken the most recent 5 H2H results in our data.
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Al-Qadisiyah FC won Al Kholood 0-5 Al-Qadisiyah FC on 9 Oct 2026, the biggest margin in the H2H matches we hold.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Al Kholood have gone 0W 0D 3L from the 3 H2H matches in our data played on their own ground against Al-Qadisiyah FC — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 5 Meetings
0
Al Kholood
0
Draws
5
Al-Qadisiyah FC
Recent Meetings
❓ Al Kholood vs Al-Qadisiyah FC H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between Al Kholood and Al-Qadisiyah FC?
Across the 5 head-to-head matches in our data, Al Kholood have won 0, Al-Qadisiyah FC have won 5, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Al Kholood and Al-Qadisiyah FC last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 9 October 2026: Al Kholood 0-5 Al-Qadisiyah FC.
Who has won more matches between Al Kholood and Al-Qadisiyah FC?
Al-Qadisiyah FC have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from the 5 head-to-head matches in our data.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Al Kholood are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 71% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 20% of those situations.
Al-Qadisiyah FC are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 71% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 36% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 20% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 29% of those situations.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Al Kholood 50%, Al-Qadisiyah FC 57% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 61% (Al Kholood) and 57% (Al-Qadisiyah FC). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 32% and 32% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Al-Qadisiyah FC in 32%; Al Kholood have failed to score in 32% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Al Kholood home games / Al-Qadisiyah FC away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Al Kholood vs Al-Qadisiyah FC Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in Al Kholood and Al-Qadisiyah FC matches?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 50% of Al Kholood's recent matches and 57% of Al-Qadisiyah FC's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Are Al Kholood and Al-Qadisiyah FC matches usually high-scoring?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 61% of Al Kholood's matches and 57% of Al-Qadisiyah FC's.
Do Al Kholood and Al-Qadisiyah FC matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 71% of Al Kholood's recent matches and 71% of Al-Qadisiyah FC's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Dominant Al-Qadisiyah FC run riot with a 1-4 hammering of Al Kholood.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Al-Qadisiyah FC beat Al Kholood 1-4 at Al-Hazem Club Stadium, Regular Season - 25, in the Pro League. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Al Kholood 0.88 xG and Al-Qadisiyah FC 2.44 xG, a combined 3.31. The scoreboard read 1-4 for 5 actual goals. Al-Qadisiyah FC outscored their 2.44 projection by 1.6. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Al Kholood attack 0.66 / defence 1.27 against Al-Qadisiyah FC attack 1.37 / defence 0.87, drawn from 58/58 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Al Kholood 11% | Draw 18% | Al-Qadisiyah FC 71%, with Al-Qadisiyah FC to win its most likely call at 71%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 64%. The game delivered 5, so it went over — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 85% and landed. Over 3.5 was 42% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 54% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 58% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Al Kholood 60%, Al-Qadisiyah FC 55%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 54%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Al Kholood's trading profile (58 games, 28 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 55% of their matches — today it did.
Al-Qadisiyah FC's trading profile (58 games, 28 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 53% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 38% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
On form, Al-Qadisiyah FC arrived the stronger side — 2.10 PPG against 1.12. The form guide was vindicated by the result. Al Kholood (home/away splits) shipped 4 against a 1.79 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Al-Qadisiyah FC (home/away splits) scored 4 against a 1.71 average — above their attacking norm.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 4 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (hit). The data earned its keep here, calling the bulk of the fixture correctly.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.