Al Kholood 0-0 Al Okhdood – Result & Analysis

Poisson rates Al Kholood at 46% — recent form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Al Kholood vs Al Okhdood encounter.

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Analysis

Al Okhdood make the trip to Al-Hazem Club Stadium to face Al Kholood in Pro League (matchday 32). The match kicks off on Tuesday 12 May 2026 at 18:20 UK time.

Form

Al Kholood (all games): 3W 3D 4L across their last 10 — 1.20 PPG. Last five: D L W D D. They are averaging 1.20 goals per game and conceding 2.10 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. However, 2.10 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings (10%). Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.

In front of their own supporters, Al Kholood have posted 1W 2D 7L from their last 10 home games — 0.50 PPG. At home they are averaging 0.70 goals scored and 2.20 conceded per game. Somewhat surprisingly, their home PPG of 0.50 lags behind their overall 1.20 — home advantage has not translated into better results recently.

Al Okhdood have collected 0.60 PPG across their last 10 games: 2W 0D 8L. Last five: W L L L L. Their scoring rate of 0.80 per game is modest, conceding 2.50 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Conceding 2.50 per game is a high rate — their defence has been exposed regularly. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings (10%).

Al Okhdood's form when playing away from home: 1W 0D 9L across their last 10 road games (0.30 PPG). Away from home they average 0.70 goals scored and 2.20 conceded per game.

The points-per-game gap of 0.60 in Al Kholood's favour (1.20 vs 0.60) is a statistically meaningful difference. The hosts are the form pick here, with draw protection the sensible hedge given the away side's competitiveness.

H2H Analysis

The head-to-head record is closely matched — across the 3 H2H matches in our data, Al Okhdood edge it 2 wins to 1, with 0 draws. Neither side has a commanding advantage. With only 3 H2H matches to go on, treat this as a light input.

Goals have been at a premium in this fixture — just 1.7 per game across the 3 H2H matches we hold, giving Under 2.5 a clear head-to-head base rate. The most recent of those, on 13 Jan 2026, ended Al Kholood 0–1 Al Okhdood — a Al Okhdood win.

With a balanced win record and just 1.7 goals per game, the H2H data points toward a tight, low-scoring contest — Under 2.5 is the stronger head-to-head angle regardless of which side wins.

Trading

Al Kholood half-time and goal-timing data (last 65 games, 32 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 72% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 90% of the time; BTTS occurs in 53% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 59% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 35%; they fail to score in 32% of games.

Al Okhdood half-time and goal-timing data (last 65 games, 32 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 62% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 81% of the time; of the 9 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 33%; BTTS occurs in 41% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 44% of games (away games); they fail to score in 42% of games.

BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Al Kholood 57% versus Al Okhdood 48%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Al Kholood 62% | Al Okhdood 51%).

Poisson Model

The Poisson distribution model projects Al Kholood 1.48 xG and Al Okhdood 1.06 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Al Kholood attack 0.765 / defence 1.211 | Al Okhdood attack 0.607 / defence 1.272. League average goals — home 1.520 / away 1.447. Al Kholood's attack rating of 0.765 is below the league average, which holds their xG down at 1.48. Al Okhdood's defence rating of 1.272 (above 1 = concedes more than average) is pushing Al Kholood's projected output up. Al Okhdood's attack rating of 0.607 is below the league average, which holds their xG down at 1.06. Al Kholood's defence rating of 1.211 (above 1 = concedes more than average) is pushing Al Okhdood's projected output up. Data: built from Al Kholood's last 65 games and Al Okhdood's last 65.

Result probabilities: Al Kholood 46% | Draw 27% | Al Okhdood 27%. Fair-value odds: Al Kholood 2.17 | Draw 3.67 | Al Okhdood 3.76. Al Kholood hold a narrow Poisson edge at 46% — the draw (27%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.

Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 47% | BTTS Yes probability 51% | Total xG 2.54. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 47%/53% — the total xG of 2.54 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS Yes at 51% is only a slight lean — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.

Verdict

The Poisson model's primary lean is Al Kholood at 46% — moderate model lean. Recent form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw probability of 27% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Al Kholood if the outright odds are short.

On the goals line, Poisson's 2.54 combined xG gives a 53% probability to Under 2.5 — mixed conviction, supported by the H2H data averaging 1.7 goals per game across 3 H2H matches — though recent form (Al Kholood's last 10 home games and Al Okhdood's last 10 away games) averaging 2.9 goals per game points the other way.

The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 51%. Form rates are neutral — both teams scored in: Al Kholood 50% (last 10 home games) | Al Okhdood 50% (last 10 away games).

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