Al Riyadh 1-0 Al-Fateh – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Al Riyadh at 37%, yet other data sources diverge — this Al Riyadh vs Al-Fateh fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Prince Faisal bin Fahd Stadium plays host to Al Riyadh versus Al-Fateh in Pro League, Regular Season - 32. Kick-off: Sunday 10 May 2026 at 17:05 UTC.
Form
Al Riyadh (all games): 3W 1D 6L across 10 Pro League fixtures this term — 1.00 PPG. Last five: D W L L L. They are averaging 1.30 goals per game and conceding 2.10 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. However, 2.10 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.
Al Riyadh's home record at Prince Faisal bin Fahd Stadium: 1W 4D 5L from 10 Pro League appearances (0.70 PPG). At home they are averaging 0.90 goals scored and 1.60 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Al-Fateh have collected 0.90 PPG across 10 Pro League outings this season: 2W 3D 5L. Last five: L W D D L. Their scoring rate of 1.30 per game is modest, conceding 1.70 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.
When travelling in Pro League this season, Al-Fateh have posted 2W 3D 5L from 10 away outings — 0.90 PPG. Away from home they average 1.10 goals scored and 1.60 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
A near-identical PPG reading — 1.00 for Al Riyadh, 0.90 for Al-Fateh — means the form record is uninstructive on result selection. The goals and market sections will carry greater evidential weight.
In terms of goals, both squads have been finding the net consistently (using home/away splits) — Al Riyadh have seen both teams score in 70% of their games, Al-Fateh in 60%. That combined rate is a strong statistical case for BTTS Yes as a standalone play.
H2H History
Form and model data should carry more weight here — the historical record is too balanced to provide a directional steer. From 5 meetings: Al Riyadh 1W, Al-Fateh 1W, 3D.
Attacking output has been a hallmark of this fixture. At 3.4 goals per game across 5 meetings, the Over 2.5 has a statistically grounded case from the head-to-head record alone. The most recent clash, on 13 Jan 2026, ended 1–3 with Al-Fateh winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.4 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Trading & In-Play
Al Riyadh — key trading statistics (65 games, 32 at home): they score before half-time in 72% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 83% of the time; BTTS occurs in 53% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 44% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 35%.
Al-Fateh — key trading statistics (65 games, 32 at away): they score before half-time in 78% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 93% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 59% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (away games).
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Al Riyadh 60% and Al-Fateh 68% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Al Riyadh 55% | Al-Fateh 55%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Al Riyadh 1.26 xG and Al-Fateh 1.23 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Al Riyadh attack 0.766 / defence 1.050 | Al-Fateh attack 0.802 / defence 1.093. League average goals — home 1.511 / away 1.453. Al Riyadh's attack strength of 0.766 is below the league average — the 1.26 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Data: 65 Al Riyadh games / 65 Al-Fateh games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Al Riyadh 37% | Draw 29% | Al-Fateh 35%. Fair-value odds: Al Riyadh 2.70 | Draw 3.45 | Al-Fateh 2.86. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 29% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 45% | BTTS probability 52% | Total xG 2.49. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 55% — total xG of 2.49 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 52% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, Al Riyadh are the pick at 37% — marginal model lean. Draw probability of 29% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Al Riyadh if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 35% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 2.49 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 45% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence — though H2H averaging only 3.4 goals per meeting points in the other direction.
Poisson assigns a 52% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Al Riyadh 70% | Al-Fateh 60% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 35% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Al Riyadh vs Al-Fateh | Competition: Pro League, Regular Season - 32 | Venue: Prince Faisal bin Fahd Stadium • Kick-off: Sunday 10 May 2026, 17:05 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Al Riyadh 37% | Draw 29% | Al-Fateh 35% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 45% | BTTS 52% | xG Al Riyadh 1.26 / Al-Fateh 1.23 • Poisson strength factors: Al Riyadh attack 0.766 / def 1.050 | Al-Fateh attack 0.802 / def 1.093 | league avg home 1.511 / away 1.453 • Poisson stance: Al Riyadh (37%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.26
Al Riyadh xG
Expected Goals
1.23
Al-Fateh xG
52%
BTTS
72%
Over 1.5
45%
Over 2.5
24%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Al Riyadh vs Al-Fateh kick off?
Al Riyadh vs Al-Fateh kicked off at 17:05 on Sunday 10 May 2026 at Prince Faisal bin Fahd Stadium.
What was the final score in Al Riyadh vs Al-Fateh?
Al Riyadh 1 - 0 Al-Fateh.
Where is Al Riyadh vs Al-Fateh being played?
The match is being played at Prince Faisal bin Fahd Stadium.
What competition is Al Riyadh vs Al-Fateh part of?
Al Riyadh vs Al-Fateh is a Regular Season - 32 fixture in the Pro League (Saudi-Arabia).
Who is favourite to win Al Riyadh vs Al-Fateh?
Our statistical model gives Al Riyadh a 37% chance of winning, Al-Fateh a 35% chance, and a 29% chance of a draw — making Al Riyadh the favourite.
Will both teams score in Al Riyadh vs Al-Fateh?
Our model estimates a 52% probability that both Al Riyadh and Al-Fateh will score (BTTS).
Will Al Riyadh vs Al-Fateh have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 45%.
What is the head-to-head record between Al Riyadh and Al-Fateh?
Record (5 meetings): Al Riyadh 1W | Draws 3 | Al-Fateh 1W.
What form are Al Riyadh and Al-Fateh in?
Al Riyadh (all comps): 3W-1D-6L in 10 | 1.00 PPG | GF 1.30 / GA 2.10 | L5 D-W-L-L-L. Al-Fateh (all comps): 2W-3D-5L in 10 | 0.90 PPG | GF 1.30 / GA 1.70 | L5 L-W-D-D-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Working from Al Riyadh's attack rating (0.77) and Al-Fateh's defence rating (1.09), the model arrives at 1.26 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — Al-Fateh's attack (0.80x) against Al Riyadh's defence (1.05x) — and the away total comes out at 1.23.
These ratings are built from 65/65 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 14.5%. Close behind: 0-0 (10.0%), 1-0 (8.8%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 33% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Al Riyadh Win
37%
2.74
29%
3.47
35%
2.89
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.8%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
10.5%
Home win
0 – 1
10.2%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.26
Al Riyadh xG
Total xG
2.49
1.23
Al-Fateh xG
2.74
37%
Home win
3.47
29%
Draw
2.89
35%
Away win
Goals Markets
71%
Over 1.5
1.41
29%
Under 1.5
3.45
45%
Over 2.5
2.22
55%
Under 2.5
1.82
24%
Over 3.5
4.17
76%
Under 3.5
1.32
11%
Over 4.5
9.09
89%
Under 4.5
1.12
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
52%
BTTS Yes
1.94
48%
BTTS No
2.07
Clean Sheet
29%
3.40
28%
3.54
Win to Nil
11%
9.32
10%
10.24
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 8.3 | 10.2 | 6.2 | 2.5 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 10.5 | 12.8 | 7.9 | 3.2 | 1.0 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 6.6 | 8.1 | 5.0 | 2.0 | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 2.8 | 3.4 | 2.1 | 0.9 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.9 | 1.1 | 0.7 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Al Riyadh vs Al-Fateh?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.5%.
How many goals are Al Riyadh and Al-Fateh expected to score?
The model projects 1.26 expected goals for Al Riyadh and 1.23 for Al-Fateh, a combined total of 2.49.
How confident is the prediction model for Al Riyadh vs Al-Fateh?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 37%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Al Riyadh come into this having played 65 games, going 15W 16D 34L for 0.94 points per game. Their last five reads D-W-L-L-L.
On the other side, Al-Fateh sit at 1.11 PPG from 65 outings (19W 15D 31L), a run that reads L-W-D-D-L across their last five.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 0.94 PPG for Al Riyadh against 1.11 for Al-Fateh. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
Home & Away Splits
Al Riyadh's home form reads 8W 10D 14L across 32 games on their own ground, a 1.06 PPG return.
Away from home, Al-Fateh have taken 0.81 points per game from 32 outings (6W 8D 18L).
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Al Riyadh are averaging 1.06 goals scored and 1.75 conceded per game recently; Al-Fateh are on 1.32 scored and 1.77 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Al Riyadh have seen both teams score in 60% of their recent games; Al-Fateh in 68%.
Last 65 Results — Pro League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Al Riyadh
Current Season
Al-Fateh
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Al Riyadh and Al-Fateh in coming into this match?
Al Riyadh have gone 15W 16D 34L in their last 65 games (0.94 PPG), while Al-Fateh have gone 19W 15D 31L in their last 65 (1.11 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Al Riyadh at home or Al-Fateh away?
Al Riyadh's home record (1.06 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Al Riyadh at home: 1.06 PPG; Al-Fateh away: 0.81 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 6 times since November 2023 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Pro League. They last met on 10 May 2026, roughly 3 months ago.
Records & Recent Trends
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Al Riyadh have gone 1W 2D 0L from 3 meetings on their own ground against Al-Fateh — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 6 Meetings
2
Al Riyadh
3
Draws
1
Al-Fateh
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Al Riyadh and Al-Fateh?
From 6 meetings on record, Al Riyadh have won 2, Al-Fateh have won 1, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Al Riyadh and Al-Fateh last play each other?
They last met on 10 May 2026, when Al Riyadh 1-0 Al-Fateh.
Who has won more matches between Al Riyadh and Al-Fateh?
Al Riyadh have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from 6 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Al Riyadh are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 72% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 12% of those situations.
Al-Fateh are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 78% of their matches.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Al Riyadh 53%, Al-Fateh 59% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 44% (Al Riyadh) and 50% (Al-Fateh).
On the defensive side: Al Riyadh have failed to score in 34% of games; Al-Fateh in 31%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Al Riyadh home games / Al-Fateh away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Al Riyadh play Al-Fateh?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 53% of Al Riyadh's games and 59% of Al-Fateh's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Al Riyadh vs Al-Fateh usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 44% of Al Riyadh's recent games and 50% of Al-Fateh's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Al Riyadh and Al-Fateh tend to score early?
Al Riyadh have had a goal before half-time in 72% of their recent matches, Al-Fateh in 78% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Al Riyadh edge out Al-Fateh 1-0.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Al Riyadh beat Al-Fateh 1-0 at Prince Faisal bin Fahd Stadium, Regular Season - 32, in the Pro League. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Al Riyadh 1.26 xG and Al-Fateh 1.23 xG, a combined 2.49. The scoreboard read 1-0 for 1 actual goal. Al-Fateh landed 1.2 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Al Riyadh attack 0.77 / defence 1.05 against Al-Fateh attack 0.80 / defence 1.09, drawn from 65/65 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Al Riyadh 37% | Draw 29% | Al-Fateh 35%, with Al Riyadh to win its most likely call at 37%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 45%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 72% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 52% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 55% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Al Riyadh 55%, Al-Fateh 55%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 64%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Al Riyadh's trading profile (65 games, 32 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 60% of their matches — today it did not.
Al-Fateh's trading profile (65 games, 32 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 68% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Al Riyadh 0.94 PPG, Al-Fateh 1.11 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Al Riyadh win broke the near-deadlock. Al Riyadh (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.41 average — tighter than their form line. Al-Fateh (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.09 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 1 against a 1.97 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.