Al Khaleej Saihat 0-5 Al-Ettifaq – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Al Khaleej Saihat at 42%, yet other data sources diverge — this Al Khaleej Saihat vs Al-Ettifaq fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
Al-Ettifaq make the trip to Prince Mohamed bin Fahd Stadium to face Al Khaleej Saihat in Pro League, Regular Season - 32. The match kicks off on Saturday 9 May 2026 at 16:55 UTC.
Form
Al Khaleej Saihat (all games): 3W 1D 6L across 10 Pro League fixtures this term — 1.00 PPG. Last five: D L W W L. They are averaging 1.20 goals per game and conceding 1.70 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation.
At home at Prince Mohamed bin Fahd Stadium, Al Khaleej Saihat have gone 4W 1D 5L this season (10 games, 1.30 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.60 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game.
Al-Ettifaq have collected 1.10 PPG across 10 Pro League outings this season: 3W 2D 5L. Last five: W L L W D. Their scoring rate of 1.40 per game is modest, conceding 1.90 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.
Al-Ettifaq away from home this season: 4W 0D 6L from 10 away games — 1.20 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 1.10 goals scored and 2.00 conceded per game.
Both sides are running at similar form levels — 1.00 PPG for Al Khaleej Saihat against 1.10 for Al-Ettifaq. There is no clear form edge to exploit here; other signals need to take the lead.
H2H History
The head-to-head record is closely matched — Al Khaleej Saihat lead 2W to 4W over the last 7 encounters, with 1 draws, though neither side has established a commanding advantage.
The 7 previous meetings have averaged 2.4 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 12 Jan 2026, ended 2–1 with Al Khaleej Saihat winning.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
Trading Data
Al Khaleej Saihat goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (65 games, 32 at home): they score before half-time in 62% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 85% of the time; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 59% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 38%.
Al-Ettifaq goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (65 games, 32 at away): they score before half-time in 78% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 71% of the time; BTTS occurs in 62% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 56% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 35%.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Al Khaleej Saihat 62% versus Al-Ettifaq 57%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Al Khaleej Saihat 63% | Al-Ettifaq 55%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Al Khaleej Saihat 1.62 xG and Al-Ettifaq 1.39 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Al Khaleej Saihat attack 1.003 / defence 1.100 | Al-Ettifaq attack 0.887 / defence 1.065. League average goals — home 1.521 / away 1.421. Data: 65 Al Khaleej Saihat games / 65 Al-Ettifaq games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Al Khaleej Saihat 42% | Draw 26% | Al-Ettifaq 32%. Fair-value odds: Al Khaleej Saihat 2.38 | Draw 3.85 | Al-Ettifaq 3.12. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 26% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 58% | BTTS probability 61% | Total xG 3.01. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 58% — the 3.01 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 61% reflects that both xG figures (1.62 / 1.39) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates Al Khaleej Saihat as the most likely outcome at 42% — marginal model lean. Draw probability of 26% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Al Khaleej Saihat if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 32% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 3.01 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 58% — reasonable confidence, supported by form averaging 3.1 goals per game.
Poisson assigns a 61% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates are neutral: Al Khaleej Saihat 50% | Al-Ettifaq 40%.
The outsider holds a 32% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Al Khaleej Saihat vs Al-Ettifaq | Competition: Pro League, Regular Season - 32 | Venue: Prince Mohamed bin Fahd Stadium • Kick-off: Saturday 9 May 2026, 16:55 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Al Khaleej Saihat 42% | Draw 26% | Al-Ettifaq 32% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 58% | BTTS 61% | xG Al Khaleej Saihat 1.62 / Al-Ettifaq 1.39 • Poisson strength factors: Al Khaleej Saihat attack 1.003 / def 1.100 | Al-Ettifaq attack 0.887 / def 1.065 | league avg home 1.521 / away 1.421 • Poisson stance: Al Khaleej Saihat (42%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.62
Al Khaleej Saihat xG
Expected Goals
1.39
Al-Ettifaq xG
61%
BTTS
81%
Over 1.5
58%
Over 2.5
36%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Al Khaleej Saihat vs Al-Ettifaq kick off?
Al Khaleej Saihat vs Al-Ettifaq kicked off at 16:55 on Saturday 9 May 2026 at Prince Mohamed bin Fahd Stadium.
What was the final score in Al Khaleej Saihat vs Al-Ettifaq?
Al Khaleej Saihat 0 - 5 Al-Ettifaq.
Where is Al Khaleej Saihat vs Al-Ettifaq being played?
The match is being played at Prince Mohamed bin Fahd Stadium.
What competition is Al Khaleej Saihat vs Al-Ettifaq part of?
Al Khaleej Saihat vs Al-Ettifaq is a Regular Season - 32 fixture in the Pro League (Saudi-Arabia).
Who is favourite to win Al Khaleej Saihat vs Al-Ettifaq?
Our statistical model gives Al Khaleej Saihat a 42% chance of winning, Al-Ettifaq a 32% chance, and a 26% chance of a draw — making Al Khaleej Saihat the favourite.
Will both teams score in Al Khaleej Saihat vs Al-Ettifaq?
Our model estimates a 61% probability that both Al Khaleej Saihat and Al-Ettifaq will score (BTTS).
Will Al Khaleej Saihat vs Al-Ettifaq have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 58%.
What is the head-to-head record between Al Khaleej Saihat and Al-Ettifaq?
Record (7 meetings): Al Khaleej Saihat 2W | Draws 1 | Al-Ettifaq 4W.
What form are Al Khaleej Saihat and Al-Ettifaq in?
Al Khaleej Saihat (all comps): 3W-1D-6L in 10 | 1.00 PPG | GF 1.20 / GA 1.70 | L5 D-L-W-W-L. Al-Ettifaq (all comps): 3W-2D-5L in 10 | 1.10 PPG | GF 1.40 / GA 1.90 | L5 W-L-L-W-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Al Khaleej Saihat's attacking strength (1.00x league average) is weighed against Al-Ettifaq's defensive record (1.06x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.62. Flip it around — Al-Ettifaq's attack (0.89x) against Al Khaleej Saihat's defence (1.10x) — and the away total comes out at 1.39.
These ratings are built from 65/65 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 12.5%. Close behind: 2-1 (9.0%), 1-2 (7.7%). Together the top three scorelines make up 29% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Al Khaleej Saihat Win
42%
2.36
26%
3.90
32%
3.13
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.1%
Draw
Most likely
2 – 1
9.0%
Home win
1 – 0
8.0%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.62
Al Khaleej Saihat xG
Total xG
3.01
1.39
Al-Ettifaq xG
2.36
42%
Home win
3.90
26%
Draw
3.13
32%
Away win
Goals Markets
80%
Over 1.5
1.25
20%
Under 1.5
5.00
58%
Over 2.5
1.72
42%
Under 2.5
2.38
36%
Over 3.5
2.78
64%
Under 3.5
1.56
19%
Over 4.5
5.26
81%
Under 4.5
1.23
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
61%
BTTS Yes
1.64
39%
BTTS No
2.56
Clean Sheet
25%
4.00
20%
5.08
Win to Nil
11%
9.43
6%
15.88
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4.9 | 6.8 | 4.7 | 2.2 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 8.0 | 11.1 | 7.7 | 3.6 | 1.2 | 0.3 |
| 2 | 6.5 | 9.0 | 6.2 | 2.9 | 1.0 | 0.3 |
| 3 | 3.5 | 4.9 | 3.4 | 1.6 | 0.5 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 1.4 | 2.0 | 1.4 | 0.6 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.5 | 0.6 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Al Khaleej Saihat vs Al-Ettifaq?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.5%.
How many goals are Al Khaleej Saihat and Al-Ettifaq expected to score?
The model projects 1.62 expected goals for Al Khaleej Saihat and 1.39 for Al-Ettifaq, a combined total of 3.01.
How confident is the prediction model for Al Khaleej Saihat vs Al-Ettifaq?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 42%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Al Khaleej Saihat come into this having played 65 games, going 20W 14D 31L for 1.14 points per game. Their last five reads D-L-W-W-L.
On the other side, Al-Ettifaq sit at 1.48 PPG from 65 outings (27W 15D 23L), a run that reads W-L-L-W-D across their last five.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.14 PPG for Al Khaleej Saihat against 1.48 for Al-Ettifaq. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
Home & Away Splits
Al Khaleej Saihat's home form reads 10W 6D 16L across 32 games on their own ground, a 1.12 PPG return.
Away from home, Al-Ettifaq have taken 1.53 points per game from 32 outings (14W 7D 11L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Al-Ettifaq come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Al Khaleej Saihat are averaging 1.42 goals scored and 1.65 conceded per game recently; Al-Ettifaq are on 1.35 scored and 1.48 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Al Khaleej Saihat have seen both teams score in 62% of their recent games.
Last 65 Results — Pro League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Al Khaleej Saihat
Current Season
Al-Ettifaq
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Al Khaleej Saihat and Al-Ettifaq in coming into this match?
Al Khaleej Saihat have gone 20W 14D 31L in their last 65 games (1.14 PPG), while Al-Ettifaq have gone 27W 15D 23L in their last 65 (1.48 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Al Khaleej Saihat at home or Al-Ettifaq away?
Al-Ettifaq's away record (1.53 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Al Khaleej Saihat at home: 1.12 PPG; Al-Ettifaq away: 1.53 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 8 times since December 2022 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Pro League. They last met on 9 May 2026, roughly 3 months ago.
Records & Recent Trends
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Al-Ettifaq won 0-5 on 9 May 2026, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Al Khaleej Saihat have gone 1W 0D 3L from 4 meetings on their own ground against Al-Ettifaq — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 8 Meetings
2
Al Khaleej Saihat
1
Draws
5
Al-Ettifaq
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Al Khaleej Saihat and Al-Ettifaq?
From 8 meetings on record, Al Khaleej Saihat have won 2, Al-Ettifaq have won 5, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Al Khaleej Saihat and Al-Ettifaq last play each other?
They last met on 9 May 2026, when Al Khaleej Saihat 0-5 Al-Ettifaq.
Who has won more matches between Al Khaleej Saihat and Al-Ettifaq?
Al-Ettifaq have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from 8 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Al Khaleej Saihat are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 62% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 28% of the time.
Al-Ettifaq are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 78% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 22% of those situations.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Al Khaleej Saihat 50%, Al-Ettifaq 62% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 59% (Al Khaleej Saihat) and 56% (Al-Ettifaq). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 38% and 38% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Al Khaleej Saihat have failed to score in 34% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Al Khaleej Saihat home games / Al-Ettifaq away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Al Khaleej Saihat play Al-Ettifaq?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 50% of Al Khaleej Saihat's games and 62% of Al-Ettifaq's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Al Khaleej Saihat vs Al-Ettifaq usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 59% of Al Khaleej Saihat's matches and 56% of Al-Ettifaq's.
Do Al Khaleej Saihat and Al-Ettifaq tend to score early?
Al Khaleej Saihat have had a goal before half-time in 62% of their recent matches, Al-Ettifaq in 78% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Dominant Al-Ettifaq run riot with a 0-5 hammering of Al Khaleej Saihat.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Al-Ettifaq beat Al Khaleej Saihat 0-5 at Prince Mohamed bin Fahd Stadium, Regular Season - 32, in the Pro League. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Al Khaleej Saihat 1.62 xG and Al-Ettifaq 1.39 xG, a combined 3.01. The scoreboard read 0-5 for 5 actual goals. Al Khaleej Saihat fell 1.6 short of their projected output. Al-Ettifaq outscored their 1.39 projection by 3.6. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Al Khaleej Saihat attack 1.00 / defence 1.10 against Al-Ettifaq attack 0.89 / defence 1.06, drawn from 65/65 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Al Khaleej Saihat 42% | Draw 26% | Al-Ettifaq 32%, with Al Khaleej Saihat to win its most likely call at 42%. The actual Al-Ettifaq win had been the model's second-ranked read at 32%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 58%. The game delivered 5, so it went over — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 81% and landed. Over 3.5 was 36% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 61% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 59% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Al Khaleej Saihat 63%, Al-Ettifaq 55%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 59%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Al Khaleej Saihat's trading profile (65 games, 32 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 62% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 28% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Al-Ettifaq's trading profile (65 games, 32 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 57% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Al Khaleej Saihat 1.14 PPG, Al-Ettifaq 1.48 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Al-Ettifaq win broke the near-deadlock. Al Khaleej Saihat (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.47 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 5 against a 1.53 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Al-Ettifaq (home/away splits) scored 5 against a 1.44 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 0 against a 1.47 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.