🎯

Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

📋

Poisson rates Al-Qadisiyah FC at 49% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Al-Fayha vs Al-Qadisiyah FC encounter.

✍️ Match Preview

Fixture Analysis

It is a Pro League clash, Regular Season - 32 as Al-Fayha welcome Al-Qadisiyah FC to King Abdullah Sports City Stadium. Kick-off is set for Saturday 9 May 2026 at 19:00 UTC.

Form Guide

Al-Fayha — All Games: 4W 3D 3L from 10 Pro League outings this season, averaging 1.50 points per game. Last five: L D L D W. Offensively they are averaging 1.70 goals per game, with 1.30 conceded. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.

Al-Fayha's form when playing at home: 5W 3D 2L across 10 games at King Abdullah Sports City Stadium this term (1.80 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.70 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.

Across all Pro League games this season, Al-Qadisiyah FC have recorded 6W 3D 1L from 10 outings — 2.10 PPG. Last five: L D D W W. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.80 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches this season — one of the stronger BTTS rates in the division, making Yes a well-evidenced play.

Al-Qadisiyah FC's form when playing away from home: 8W 1D 1L across 10 road games this term (2.50 PPG). They are averaging 2.90 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support. Both teams have scored in 80% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.

Despite the home advantage, the form figures favour Al-Qadisiyah FC — 0.60 PPG ahead of the hosts (2.10 vs 1.50). That gap is large enough to take seriously. Draw No Bet on the visitors neutralises home-ground risk while maintaining the form-backed selection.

The BTTS market is worth targeting here. Al-Fayha register both teams scoring in 60% of relevant matches, Al-Qadisiyah FC in 80% (using home/away splits) — both sides above the 60% threshold gives BTTS Yes firm statistical grounding.

H2H Record

There is little to separate the sides historically. From 3 previous meetings, Al-Fayha have won 1, Al-Qadisiyah FC 2, with 0 draws — a balanced ledger that offers no obvious directional steer on its own.

Goals have been a feature of this fixture. The last 3 meetings have averaged 3.3 per game — a rate that gives the Over 2.5 market a solid historical foundation. The most recent clash, on 14 Jan 2026, ended 0–5 with Al-Qadisiyah FC winning.

With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.3 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.

Trading Patterns

Al-Fayha in-play and half-time data (65 games, 32 at home): they score before half-time in 66% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 61% of the time; BTTS occurs in 44% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 31% of games (home games); they fail to score in 40% of games.

Al-Qadisiyah FC in-play and half-time data (65 games, 32 at away): they score before half-time in 75% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 87% of the time; BTTS occurs in 59% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 59% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 37%.

BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Al-Fayha 45% versus Al-Qadisiyah FC 57%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Al-Fayha 45% | Al-Qadisiyah FC 58%).

Poisson Model

The Poisson distribution model projects Al-Fayha 1.46 xG and Al-Qadisiyah FC 1.97 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Al-Fayha attack 1.039 / defence 0.940 | Al-Qadisiyah FC attack 1.441 / defence 0.931. League average goals — home 1.515 / away 1.453. Al-Qadisiyah FC have an above-average attack strength of 1.441 — the away xG of 1.97 is driven by genuine attacking quality on the road. Data: 65 Al-Fayha games / 65 Al-Qadisiyah FC games used (CurrentSeason).

Result probabilities: Al-Fayha 28% | Draw 23% | Al-Qadisiyah FC 49%. Fair-value odds: Al-Fayha 3.57 | Draw 4.35 | Al-Qadisiyah FC 2.04. Al-Qadisiyah FC hold a narrow Poisson edge at 49% — the draw (23%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.

Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 67% | BTTS probability 67% | Total xG 3.43. Over 2.5 is the model's clear signal at 67% — a total xG of 3.43 means the expected score alone exceeds the 2.5 threshold, making the Over not just likely but structurally supported by both sides' attack/defence profiles. BTTS Yes at 67% reflects that both xG figures (1.46 / 1.97) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.

Analysis Verdict

On the Poisson output, Al-Qadisiyah FC are the pick at 49% — moderate model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 23% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Al-Qadisiyah FC offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 28% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.

Poisson projects 3.43 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 67% probability — strong conviction, supported by form averaging 3.6 goals per game and H2H averaging 3.3 goals per meeting.

The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 67%. Form rates corroborate: Al-Fayha 60% | Al-Qadisiyah FC 80% BTTS from recent games.

🔮 Your Prediction

Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.

💡 Key Insights