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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Poisson model favours Al-Ahli Jeddah (46%) — form and H2H data both point in the same direction as Al Taawon face Al-Ahli Jeddah.

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Fixture Analysis

It is a Pro League clash, Regular Season - 32 as Al Taawon welcome Al-Ahli Jeddah to Al Taawon Arena. Kick-off is set for Monday 11 May 2026 at 19:00 UTC.

Recent Form

Across all Pro League games this season, Al Taawon have gone 3W 4D 3L from 10 outings — a 1.30 PPG return. Last five: D L W L W. Offensively they are averaging 1.90 goals per game, with 1.70 conceded. Both teams have scored in 90% of their matches — an extremely high rate that makes BTTS Yes a well-supported standalone angle from their form alone.

Al Taawon's form when playing at home: 4W 3D 3L across 10 games at Al Taawon Arena this term (1.50 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.40 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.

Looking at all fixtures this season, Al-Ahli Jeddah stand at 7W 1D 2L from 10 Pro League matches — 2.20 PPG. Last five: W D L W W. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.20 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity.

Al-Ahli Jeddah away from home this season: 6W 2D 2L from 10 away games — 2.00 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 1.50 goals scored and 0.80 conceded per game. 6 away clean sheets from 10 games (60%) — they are as difficult to score against on the road as they are at home. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel.

Form points away from home here. Al-Ahli Jeddah's 2.20 PPG return is 0.90 points per game ahead of Al Taawon's 1.30 — the visitors are the form-based selection, and Double Chance is an alternative worth pricing if the outright looks tight.

H2H

Despite the anticipated home advantage, Al-Ahli Jeddah have the better historical record — 5 wins from 7 previous contests against 0 for Al Taawon.

Goals have been a feature of this fixture. The last 7 meetings have averaged 3.0 per game — a rate that gives the Over 2.5 market a solid historical foundation. The most recent clash, on 14 Jan 2026, ended 1–2 with Al-Ahli Jeddah winning.

The H2H provides genuine backing for the away side. Al-Ahli Jeddah have won 5 of 7 previous encounters, and at 3.0 goals per game, the goals market also points upward. The away win and Over 2.5 combination has a historical case worth noting.

In-Play Data

Al Taawon trading profile (65 games, 32 at home): they score before half-time in 75% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 90% of the time; BTTS occurs in 53% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 41% of games (home games).

Al-Ahli Jeddah trading profile (65 games, 32 at away): they score before half-time in 56% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 90% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 55% of those occasions; they lead at the break 48% of the time; BTTS occurs in 34% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 34% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 37%; they keep a clean sheet 45% of the time.

BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Al Taawon 52% versus Al-Ahli Jeddah 48%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Al Taawon 43% | Al-Ahli Jeddah 51%).

Poisson Model

The Poisson distribution model projects Al Taawon 1.08 xG and Al-Ahli Jeddah 1.47 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Al Taawon attack 0.934 / defence 1.057 | Al-Ahli Jeddah attack 0.967 / defence 0.757. League average goals — home 1.521 / away 1.442. Al-Ahli Jeddah's defence strength of 0.757 is below average — they are conceding at a rate that inflates the home xG figure. Data: 65 Al Taawon games / 65 Al-Ahli Jeddah games used (CurrentSeason).

Result probabilities: Al Taawon 27% | Draw 27% | Al-Ahli Jeddah 46%. Fair-value odds: Al Taawon 3.70 | Draw 3.70 | Al-Ahli Jeddah 2.17. Al-Ahli Jeddah hold a narrow Poisson edge at 46% — the draw (27%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.

Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 47% | BTTS probability 51% | Total xG 2.55. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 47%/53% — the total xG of 2.55 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 51% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.

Summary & Verdict

The Poisson model's primary lean is Al-Ahli Jeddah at 46% — moderate model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 27% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Al-Ahli Jeddah offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.

The Poisson model projects 2.55 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 47% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence — though H2H averaging only 3.0 goals per meeting points in the other direction.

On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 51% on Yes. Form rates are neutral: Al Taawon 60% | Al-Ahli Jeddah 30%.

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