Al Taawon 1-2 Al-Ahli Jeddah – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model favours Al-Ahli Jeddah (46%) — form and H2H data both point in the same direction as Al Taawon face Al-Ahli Jeddah.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Pro League clash, Regular Season - 32 as Al Taawon welcome Al-Ahli Jeddah to Al Taawon Arena. Kick-off is set for Monday 11 May 2026 at 19:00 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Pro League games this season, Al Taawon have gone 3W 4D 3L from 10 outings — a 1.30 PPG return. Last five: D L W L W. Offensively they are averaging 1.90 goals per game, with 1.70 conceded. Both teams have scored in 90% of their matches — an extremely high rate that makes BTTS Yes a well-supported standalone angle from their form alone.
Al Taawon's form when playing at home: 4W 3D 3L across 10 games at Al Taawon Arena this term (1.50 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.40 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
Looking at all fixtures this season, Al-Ahli Jeddah stand at 7W 1D 2L from 10 Pro League matches — 2.20 PPG. Last five: W D L W W. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.20 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity.
Al-Ahli Jeddah away from home this season: 6W 2D 2L from 10 away games — 2.00 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 1.50 goals scored and 0.80 conceded per game. 6 away clean sheets from 10 games (60%) — they are as difficult to score against on the road as they are at home. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel.
Form points away from home here. Al-Ahli Jeddah's 2.20 PPG return is 0.90 points per game ahead of Al Taawon's 1.30 — the visitors are the form-based selection, and Double Chance is an alternative worth pricing if the outright looks tight.
H2H
Despite the anticipated home advantage, Al-Ahli Jeddah have the better historical record — 5 wins from 7 previous contests against 0 for Al Taawon.
Goals have been a feature of this fixture. The last 7 meetings have averaged 3.0 per game — a rate that gives the Over 2.5 market a solid historical foundation. The most recent clash, on 14 Jan 2026, ended 1–2 with Al-Ahli Jeddah winning.
The H2H provides genuine backing for the away side. Al-Ahli Jeddah have won 5 of 7 previous encounters, and at 3.0 goals per game, the goals market also points upward. The away win and Over 2.5 combination has a historical case worth noting.
In-Play Data
Al Taawon trading profile (65 games, 32 at home): they score before half-time in 75% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 90% of the time; BTTS occurs in 53% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 41% of games (home games).
Al-Ahli Jeddah trading profile (65 games, 32 at away): they score before half-time in 56% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 90% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 55% of those occasions; they lead at the break 48% of the time; BTTS occurs in 34% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 34% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 37%; they keep a clean sheet 45% of the time.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Al Taawon 52% versus Al-Ahli Jeddah 48%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Al Taawon 43% | Al-Ahli Jeddah 51%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Al Taawon 1.08 xG and Al-Ahli Jeddah 1.47 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Al Taawon attack 0.934 / defence 1.057 | Al-Ahli Jeddah attack 0.967 / defence 0.757. League average goals — home 1.521 / away 1.442. Al-Ahli Jeddah's defence strength of 0.757 is below average — they are conceding at a rate that inflates the home xG figure. Data: 65 Al Taawon games / 65 Al-Ahli Jeddah games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Al Taawon 27% | Draw 27% | Al-Ahli Jeddah 46%. Fair-value odds: Al Taawon 3.70 | Draw 3.70 | Al-Ahli Jeddah 2.17. Al-Ahli Jeddah hold a narrow Poisson edge at 46% — the draw (27%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 47% | BTTS probability 51% | Total xG 2.55. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 47%/53% — the total xG of 2.55 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 51% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Al-Ahli Jeddah at 46% — moderate model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 27% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Al-Ahli Jeddah offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
The Poisson model projects 2.55 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 47% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence — though H2H averaging only 3.0 goals per meeting points in the other direction.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 51% on Yes. Form rates are neutral: Al Taawon 60% | Al-Ahli Jeddah 30%.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Al Taawon vs Al-Ahli Jeddah | Competition: Pro League, Regular Season - 32 | Venue: Al Taawon Arena • Kick-off: Monday 11 May 2026, 19:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Al Taawon 27% | Draw 27% | Al-Ahli Jeddah 46% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 47% | BTTS 51% | xG Al Taawon 1.08 / Al-Ahli Jeddah 1.47 • Poisson strength factors: Al Taawon attack 0.934 / def 1.057 | Al-Ahli Jeddah attack 0.967 / def 0.757 | league avg home 1.521 / away 1.442 • Poisson stance: Al-Ahli Jeddah (46%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.08
Al Taawon xG
Expected Goals
1.47
Al-Ahli Jeddah xG
51%
BTTS
73%
Over 1.5
47%
Over 2.5
25%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Al Taawon vs Al-Ahli Jeddah kick off?
Al Taawon vs Al-Ahli Jeddah kicked off at 19:00 on Monday 11 May 2026 at Al Taawon Arena.
What was the final score in Al Taawon vs Al-Ahli Jeddah?
Al Taawon 1 - 2 Al-Ahli Jeddah.
Where is Al Taawon vs Al-Ahli Jeddah being played?
The match is being played at Al Taawon Arena.
What competition is Al Taawon vs Al-Ahli Jeddah part of?
Al Taawon vs Al-Ahli Jeddah is a Regular Season - 32 fixture in the Pro League (Saudi-Arabia).
Who is favourite to win Al Taawon vs Al-Ahli Jeddah?
Our statistical model gives Al Taawon a 27% chance of winning, Al-Ahli Jeddah a 46% chance, and a 27% chance of a draw — making Al-Ahli Jeddah the favourite.
Will both teams score in Al Taawon vs Al-Ahli Jeddah?
Our model estimates a 51% probability that both Al Taawon and Al-Ahli Jeddah will score (BTTS).
Will Al Taawon vs Al-Ahli Jeddah have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 47%.
What is the head-to-head record between Al Taawon and Al-Ahli Jeddah?
Record (7 meetings): Al Taawon 0W | Draws 2 | Al-Ahli Jeddah 5W.
What form are Al Taawon and Al-Ahli Jeddah in?
Al Taawon (all comps): 3W-4D-3L in 10 | 1.30 PPG | GF 1.90 / GA 1.70 | L5 D-L-W-L-W. Al-Ahli Jeddah (all comps): 7W-1D-2L in 10 | 2.20 PPG | GF 2.20 / GA 0.90 | L5 W-D-L-W-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
The model rates Al Taawon's attack at 0.93x the league average against Al-Ahli Jeddah's defence at 0.76x — combine the two and it projects 1.08 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Al-Ahli Jeddah's attack versus Al Taawon's defence, projects 1.47 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 65/65 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 14.0% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 0-1 (9.9%), 0-0 (9.4%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 33% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Al-Ahli Jeddah Win
27%
3.70
27%
3.66
46%
2.19
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.4%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
11.5%
Away win
1 – 2
9.1%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.08
Al Taawon xG
Total xG
2.55
1.47
Al-Ahli Jeddah xG
3.70
27%
Home win
3.66
27%
Draw
2.19
46%
Away win
Goals Markets
72%
Over 1.5
1.39
28%
Under 1.5
3.57
47%
Over 2.5
2.13
53%
Under 2.5
1.89
25%
Over 3.5
4.00
75%
Under 3.5
1.33
12%
Over 4.5
8.33
88%
Under 4.5
1.14
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
51%
BTTS Yes
1.94
49%
BTTS No
2.06
Clean Sheet
23%
4.37
34%
2.93
Win to Nil
6%
16.17
16%
6.42
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7.8 | 11.5 | 8.5 | 4.2 | 1.5 | 0.5 |
| 1 | 8.4 | 12.4 | 9.1 | 4.5 | 1.7 | 0.5 |
| 2 | 4.5 | 6.7 | 4.9 | 2.4 | 0.9 | 0.3 |
| 3 | 1.6 | 2.4 | 1.8 | 0.9 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.4 | 0.6 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Al Taawon vs Al-Ahli Jeddah?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.0%.
How many goals are Al Taawon and Al-Ahli Jeddah expected to score?
The model projects 1.08 expected goals for Al Taawon and 1.47 for Al-Ahli Jeddah, a combined total of 2.55.
How confident is the prediction model for Al Taawon vs Al-Ahli Jeddah?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 46%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Across their last 65 outings, Al Taawon have picked up 1.49 PPG on a 27W 16D 22L record — D-L-W-L-W across the most recent five.
Al-Ahli Jeddah's form line: 43W 10D 12L from 65 games, 2.14 PPG, last five W-D-L-W-W.
Put side by side, Al-Ahli Jeddah are the form team by 0.65 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against Al Taawon.
Home Ground vs the Road
On home soil, Al Taawon have posted 1.59 PPG from 32 outings (14W 9D 9L).
On the road, Al-Ahli Jeddah have gone 19W 4D 9L from 32 away games — 1.91 PPG when travelling.
The Goals Picture
Al Taawon are averaging 1.49 goals scored and 1.23 conceded per game recently; Al-Ahli Jeddah are on 2.02 scored and 0.91 conceded.
Defensively: Al-Ahli Jeddah in 45% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 65 Results — Pro League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Al Taawon
Current Season
Al-Ahli Jeddah
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Al Taawon and Al-Ahli Jeddah in coming into this match?
Al Taawon have gone 27W 16D 22L in their last 65 games (1.49 PPG), while Al-Ahli Jeddah have gone 43W 10D 12L in their last 65 (2.14 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Al Taawon at home or Al-Ahli Jeddah away?
Al-Ahli Jeddah's away record (1.91 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Al Taawon at home: 1.59 PPG; Al-Ahli Jeddah away: 1.91 PPG.
Have Al Taawon or Al-Ahli Jeddah been keeping clean sheets recently?
Al Taawon have kept a clean sheet in 26% of their recent games, Al-Ahli Jeddah in 45%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Al Taawon and Al-Ahli Jeddah runs to 8 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to September 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Pro League. They last met on 11 May 2026, roughly 3 months ago.
Digging Into the Numbers
There's a clear current trend here: Al-Ahli Jeddah have taken the last 6 head-to-head results.
Al Taawon's record when hosting Al-Ahli Jeddah specifically: 0W 1D 3L from 4 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 8 Meetings
0
Al Taawon
2
Draws
6
Al-Ahli Jeddah
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Al Taawon and Al-Ahli Jeddah?
From 8 meetings on record, Al Taawon have won 0, Al-Ahli Jeddah have won 6, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Al Taawon and Al-Ahli Jeddah last play each other?
They last met on 11 May 2026, when Al Taawon 1-2 Al-Ahli Jeddah.
Who has won more matches between Al Taawon and Al-Ahli Jeddah?
Al-Ahli Jeddah have the better head-to-head record, with 6 wins from 8 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Al Taawon are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 75% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 38% of the time.
Al-Ahli Jeddah see a goal before the break in 56% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 41% of the time.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Al Taawon 53%, Al-Ahli Jeddah 34% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 41% (Al Taawon) and 34% (Al-Ahli Jeddah).
On the defensive side: Al Taawon keep a clean sheet in 31% of their matches; Al-Ahli Jeddah in 50%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Al Taawon home games / Al-Ahli Jeddah away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Al Taawon play Al-Ahli Jeddah?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 53% of Al Taawon's recent matches and 34% of Al-Ahli Jeddah's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Al Taawon vs Al-Ahli Jeddah usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 41% of Al Taawon's recent games and 34% of Al-Ahli Jeddah's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Al Taawon and Al-Ahli Jeddah tend to score early?
Al Taawon have had a goal before half-time in 75% of their recent matches, Al-Ahli Jeddah in 56% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Al-Ahli Jeddah edge out Al Taawon 1-2.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Al-Ahli Jeddah beat Al Taawon 1-2 at Al Taawon Arena, Regular Season - 32, in the Pro League. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Al Taawon 1.08 xG and Al-Ahli Jeddah 1.47 xG, a combined 2.55. The scoreboard read 1-2 for 3 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Al Taawon attack 0.93 / defence 1.06 against Al-Ahli Jeddah attack 0.97 / defence 0.76, drawn from 65/65 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Al Taawon 27% | Draw 27% | Al-Ahli Jeddah 46%, with Al-Ahli Jeddah to win its most likely call at 46%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 47%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 73% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 51% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 47% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Al Taawon 43%, Al-Ahli Jeddah 51%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 50%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Al Taawon's trading profile (65 games, 32 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 52% of their matches — today it did.
Al-Ahli Jeddah's trading profile (65 games, 32 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 48% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 45% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
On form, Al-Ahli Jeddah arrived the stronger side — 2.14 PPG against 1.49. Form held, and they took the win.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit), form (hit). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.