Al Okhdood 3-1 Al Khaleej Saihat – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Al Khaleej Saihat at 55% — the H2H record provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Al Okhdood vs Al Khaleej Saihat encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Al Okhdood host Al Khaleej Saihat at Prince Hathloul bin Abdul Aziz Sports City in Pro League, Regular Season - 33. Kick-off is scheduled for Saturday 16 May 2026 at 17:05 UTC.
Form Guide
Al Okhdood — All Games: 2W 1D 7L from 10 Pro League outings this season, averaging 0.70 points per game. Last five: L L L L D. They are averaging 0.60 goals per game and conceding 2.10 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. However, 2.10 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their matches, indicating a tendency toward clean sheets or low-scoring outcomes.
Al Okhdood at Prince Hathloul bin Abdul Aziz Sports City this season: 2W 2D 6L from 10 home games — 0.80 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 0.80 goals scored and 2.40 conceded per game.
Looking at all fixtures this season, Al Khaleej Saihat stand at 3W 1D 6L from 10 Pro League matches — 1.00 PPG. Last five: L W W L L. Their scoring rate of 1.20 per game is modest, conceding 2.10 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Conceding 2.10 per game is a high rate — their defensive vulnerabilities have been exposed regularly this season. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation.
When travelling in Pro League this season, Al Khaleej Saihat have posted 2W 4D 4L from 10 away outings — 1.00 PPG. Away from home they average 1.20 goals scored and 1.60 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
The form comparison is too close to call — 0.70 PPG (Al Okhdood) versus 1.00 (Al Khaleej Saihat). When the figures are this level, no pick can be reliably derived from recent results alone.
Head to Head
The rivalry is an even one: 1 wins apiece for Al Okhdood, 3 for Al Khaleej Saihat and 1 shared spoils from 5 past contests. Neither side holds a meaningful historical edge.
The 5 previous encounters between these sides have been high-scoring affairs — 3.6 goals per contest on average. Historical precedent backs the Over 2.5 goals market. The most recent clash, on 16 Jan 2026, ended 1–4 with Al Khaleej Saihat winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.6 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
In-Play Profile
Al Okhdood in-play tendencies (66 games, 33 at home): they score before half-time in 73% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 77% of the time; BTTS occurs in 54% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 58% of games (home games); they fail to score in 42% of games.
Al Khaleej Saihat in-play tendencies (66 games, 33 at away): they score before half-time in 76% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 85% of the time; BTTS occurs in 73% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 67% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 39%.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Al Okhdood 47% versus Al Khaleej Saihat 61%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Al Okhdood 50% | Al Khaleej Saihat 64%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Al Okhdood 1.08 xG and Al Khaleej Saihat 1.88 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Al Okhdood attack 0.704 / defence 1.356 | Al Khaleej Saihat attack 0.972 / defence 1.026. League average goals — home 1.503 / away 1.424. Al Okhdood's attack strength of 0.704 is below the league average — the 1.08 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Data: 66 Al Okhdood games / 66 Al Khaleej Saihat games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Al Okhdood 21% | Draw 25% | Al Khaleej Saihat 55%. Fair-value odds: Al Okhdood 4.76 | Draw 4.00 | Al Khaleej Saihat 1.82. The model has a clear lean to Al Khaleej Saihat (55%) — a 34pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 57% | BTTS probability 57% | Total xG 2.96. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 57% — the 2.96 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS probability of 57% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Al Khaleej Saihat at 55% — clear model lean. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 25% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.96 combined xG gives a 57% probability to Over 2.5 — strong, supported by form averaging 3.0 goals per game and H2H averaging 3.6 goals per meeting.
Poisson assigns a 57% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Al Okhdood 40% | Al Khaleej Saihat 70% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Al Okhdood vs Al Khaleej Saihat | Competition: Pro League, Regular Season - 33 | Venue: Prince Hathloul bin Abdul Aziz Sports City • Kick-off: Saturday 16 May 2026, 17:05 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Al Okhdood 21% | Draw 25% | Al Khaleej Saihat 55% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 57% | BTTS 57% | xG Al Okhdood 1.08 / Al Khaleej Saihat 1.88 • Poisson strength factors: Al Okhdood attack 0.704 / def 1.356 | Al Khaleej Saihat attack 0.972 / def 1.026 | league avg home 1.503 / away 1.424 • Poisson stance: Al Khaleej Saihat (55%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.08
Al Okhdood xG
Expected Goals
1.88
Al Khaleej Saihat xG
57%
BTTS
81%
Over 1.5
57%
Over 2.5
34%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Al Okhdood vs Al Khaleej Saihat kick off?
Al Okhdood vs Al Khaleej Saihat kicked off at 17:05 on Saturday 16 May 2026 at Prince Hathloul bin Abdul Aziz Sports City.
What was the final score in Al Okhdood vs Al Khaleej Saihat?
Al Okhdood 3 - 1 Al Khaleej Saihat.
Where is Al Okhdood vs Al Khaleej Saihat being played?
The match is being played at Prince Hathloul bin Abdul Aziz Sports City.
What competition is Al Okhdood vs Al Khaleej Saihat part of?
Al Okhdood vs Al Khaleej Saihat is a Regular Season - 33 fixture in the Pro League (Saudi-Arabia).
Who is favourite to win Al Okhdood vs Al Khaleej Saihat?
Our statistical model gives Al Okhdood a 21% chance of winning, Al Khaleej Saihat a 55% chance, and a 25% chance of a draw — making Al Khaleej Saihat the favourite.
Will both teams score in Al Okhdood vs Al Khaleej Saihat?
Our model estimates a 57% probability that both Al Okhdood and Al Khaleej Saihat will score (BTTS).
Will Al Okhdood vs Al Khaleej Saihat have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 57%.
What is the head-to-head record between Al Okhdood and Al Khaleej Saihat?
Record (5 meetings): Al Okhdood 1W | Draws 1 | Al Khaleej Saihat 3W.
What form are Al Okhdood and Al Khaleej Saihat in?
Al Okhdood (all comps): 2W-1D-7L in 10 | 0.70 PPG | GF 0.60 / GA 2.10 | L5 L-L-L-L-D. Al Khaleej Saihat (all comps): 3W-1D-6L in 10 | 1.00 PPG | GF 1.20 / GA 2.10 | L5 L-W-W-L-L.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
The model rates Al Okhdood's attack at 0.70x the league average against Al Khaleej Saihat's defence at 1.03x — combine the two and it projects 1.08 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Al Khaleej Saihat's attack versus Al Okhdood's defence, projects 1.88 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 66/66 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 11.9% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-2 (9.9%), 0-2 (9.1%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 31% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Al Khaleej Saihat Win
21%
4.87
25%
4.04
55%
1.83
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
10.5%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 2
9.9%
Away win
0 – 1
9.7%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.08
Al Okhdood xG
Total xG
2.96
1.88
Al Khaleej Saihat xG
4.87
21%
Home win
4.04
25%
Draw
1.83
55%
Away win
Goals Markets
80%
Over 1.5
1.25
20%
Under 1.5
5.00
57%
Over 2.5
1.75
43%
Under 2.5
2.33
34%
Over 3.5
2.94
66%
Under 3.5
1.52
18%
Over 4.5
5.56
82%
Under 4.5
1.22
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
57%
BTTS Yes
1.75
43%
BTTS No
2.34
Clean Sheet
15%
6.53
34%
2.96
Win to Nil
3%
31.83
18%
5.41
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.2 | 9.7 | 9.1 | 5.7 | 2.7 | 1.0 |
| 1 | 5.6 | 10.5 | 9.9 | 6.2 | 2.9 | 1.1 |
| 2 | 3.0 | 5.7 | 5.4 | 3.4 | 1.6 | 0.6 |
| 3 | 1.1 | 2.1 | 1.9 | 1.2 | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 0.3 | 0.6 | 0.5 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Al Okhdood vs Al Khaleej Saihat?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 11.9%.
How many goals are Al Okhdood and Al Khaleej Saihat expected to score?
The model projects 1.08 expected goals for Al Okhdood and 1.88 for Al Khaleej Saihat, a combined total of 2.96.
How confident is the prediction model for Al Okhdood vs Al Khaleej Saihat?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 55%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Al Okhdood's recent record stands at 13W 12D 41L from 66 games, a 0.77 PPG return, with L-L-L-L-D in the last five.
Al Khaleej Saihat, meanwhile, have gone 20W 14D 32L across 66 games — 1.12 PPG, with L-W-W-L-L in their last five.
Form-wise this is close to level: Al Okhdood on 0.77 PPG, Al Khaleej Saihat on 1.12. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
At home specifically, Al Okhdood have managed 6W 7D 20L from 33 games — 0.76 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Al Khaleej Saihat's away record stands at 10W 8D 15L across 33 trips, a 1.15 PPG haul.
Goals in Recent Form
Al Okhdood are averaging 0.86 goals scored and 1.88 conceded per game recently; Al Khaleej Saihat are on 1.39 scored and 1.70 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Al Khaleej Saihat in 61%.
Last 66 Results — Pro League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Al Okhdood
Current Season
Al Khaleej Saihat
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Al Okhdood and Al Khaleej Saihat in coming into this match?
Al Okhdood have gone 13W 12D 41L in their last 66 games (0.77 PPG), while Al Khaleej Saihat have gone 20W 14D 32L in their last 66 (1.12 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Al Okhdood at home or Al Khaleej Saihat away?
Al Khaleej Saihat's away record (1.15 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Al Okhdood at home: 0.76 PPG; Al Khaleej Saihat away: 1.15 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
6 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to September 2023. Every recorded meeting has come in Pro League. They last met on 16 May 2026, roughly 3 months ago.
Streaks & Records
The biggest gap between the sides came on 16 Jan 2026, when Al Khaleej Saihat won 4-1 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Al Okhdood's record when hosting Al Khaleej Saihat specifically: 1W 0D 2L from 3 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 6 Meetings
2
Al Okhdood
1
Draws
3
Al Khaleej Saihat
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Al Okhdood and Al Khaleej Saihat?
From 6 meetings on record, Al Okhdood have won 2, Al Khaleej Saihat have won 3, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Al Okhdood and Al Khaleej Saihat last play each other?
They last met on 16 May 2026, when Al Okhdood 3-1 Al Khaleej Saihat.
Who has won more matches between Al Okhdood and Al Khaleej Saihat?
Al Khaleej Saihat have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 6 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Al Okhdood are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 73% of their matches.
Al Khaleej Saihat are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 76% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 27% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 15% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 12% of those situations.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Al Okhdood 54%, Al Khaleej Saihat 73% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 58% for Al Okhdood and 67% for Al Khaleej Saihat. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 30% and 39% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Al Okhdood have failed to score in 33% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Al Okhdood home games / Al Khaleej Saihat away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Al Okhdood play Al Khaleej Saihat?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 54% of Al Okhdood's games and 73% of Al Khaleej Saihat's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Al Okhdood vs Al Khaleej Saihat usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 58% of Al Okhdood's matches and 67% of Al Khaleej Saihat's.
Do Al Okhdood and Al Khaleej Saihat tend to score early?
Al Okhdood have had a goal before half-time in 73% of their recent matches, Al Khaleej Saihat in 76% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Al Okhdood cruise to a comfortable 3-1 victory over Al Khaleej Saihat.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Al Okhdood beat Al Khaleej Saihat 3-1 at Prince Hathloul bin Abdul Aziz Sports City, Regular Season - 33, in the Pro League. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Al Okhdood 1.08 xG and Al Khaleej Saihat 1.88 xG, a combined 2.96. The scoreboard read 3-1 for 4 actual goals. Al Okhdood beat their projection by 1.9 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Al Khaleej Saihat landed 0.9 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Al Okhdood attack 0.70 / defence 1.36 against Al Khaleej Saihat attack 0.97 / defence 1.03, drawn from 66/66 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Al Okhdood 21% | Draw 25% | Al Khaleej Saihat 55%, with Al Khaleej Saihat to win its most likely call at 55%. Instead the game produced a Al Okhdood win, an outcome the model had rated at just 21% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 57%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 81% and landed. Over 3.5 was 34% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 57% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 57% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Al Okhdood 50%, Al Khaleej Saihat 64%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 54%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Al Okhdood's trading profile (66 games, 33 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 47% of their matches — today it did.
Al Khaleej Saihat's trading profile (66 games, 33 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 61% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Al Okhdood 0.77 PPG, Al Khaleej Saihat 1.12 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Al Okhdood win broke the near-deadlock. Al Okhdood (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 0.94 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 1 against a 2.06 average — tighter than their form line. Al Khaleej Saihat (home/away splits) shipped 3 against a 1.76 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.