Al Kholood 2-1 Al Khaleej Saihat – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Al Kholood at 44%, yet other data sources diverge — this Al Kholood vs Al Khaleej Saihat fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Pro League clash, Regular Season - 23 as Al Kholood welcome Al Khaleej Saihat to Ar-Rass Stadium. Kick-off is set for Saturday 1 March 2025 at 19:00 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, Al Kholood stand at 5W 0D 5L from 10 Pro League matches — 1.50 PPG. Last five: L W L W L. They are averaging 1.40 goals per game and conceding 2.00 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. However, 2.00 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. This season is still relatively young for Al Kholood, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Al Kholood's home record at Ar-Rass Stadium: 4W 2D 4L from 10 Pro League appearances (1.40 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.50 goals scored and 1.90 conceded per game.
Across all Pro League games this season, Al Khaleej Saihat have recorded 2W 4D 4L from 10 outings — 1.00 PPG. Last five: D L L D D. Their scoring rate of 1.20 per game is modest, conceding 1.60 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Al Khaleej Saihat, so this record blends games from this season and last.
When travelling in Pro League this season, Al Khaleej Saihat have posted 4W 2D 4L from 10 away outings — 1.40 PPG. Away from home they average 1.20 goals scored and 1.70 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
Al Kholood carry the stronger recent momentum — 0.50 PPG ahead of their opponents on 1.50 vs 1.00. The form data is a point in their favour, and where the price allows, it is the cleaner directional bet.
H2H
The rivalry is an even one: 0 wins apiece for Al Kholood, 1 for Al Khaleej Saihat and 0 shared spoils from 1 past contests. Neither side holds a meaningful historical edge.
These sides have historically produced few goals — 1.0 per contest from 1 previous meetings. The Under 2.5 market has a well-supported historical case here. The most recent clash, on 4 Oct 2024, ended 0–1 with Al Khaleej Saihat winning.
With a balanced win record and just 1.0 goals per game historically, the H2H points toward a tight, low-scoring contest. Under 2.5 goals has the strongest statistical grounding from the fixture history regardless of which side wins.
In-Play Data
Al Kholood trading profile (22 games, 10 at home): they score before half-time in 70% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 60% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 36%.
Al Khaleej Saihat trading profile (22 games, 10 at away): they score before half-time in 60% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 82% of the time; BTTS occurs in 60% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 60% of games (away games); they fail to score in 32% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Al Kholood 59% versus Al Khaleej Saihat 50%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Al Kholood 54% | Al Khaleej Saihat 54%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Al Kholood 1.65 xG and Al Khaleej Saihat 1.36 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Al Kholood attack 0.929 / defence 1.089 | Al Khaleej Saihat attack 0.926 / defence 1.172. League average goals — home 1.517 / away 1.352. Data: 22 Al Kholood games / 56 Al Khaleej Saihat games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Al Kholood 44% | Draw 24% | Al Khaleej Saihat 32%. Fair-value odds: Al Kholood 2.27 | Draw 4.17 | Al Khaleej Saihat 3.12. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 24% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 58% | BTTS probability 60% | Total xG 3.02. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 58% — the 3.02 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 60% reflects that both xG figures (1.65 / 1.36) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Al Kholood as the most likely outcome at 44% — marginal model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 24% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Al Kholood offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 32% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 3.02 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 58% — reasonable confidence, supported by form averaging 3.1 goals per game.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 60% on Yes. Form rates corroborate: Al Kholood 50% | Al Khaleej Saihat 60% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 32% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Al Kholood vs Al Khaleej Saihat | Competition: Pro League, Regular Season - 23 | Venue: Ar-Rass Stadium • Kick-off: Saturday 1 Mar 2025, 19:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Al Kholood 44% | Draw 24% | Al Khaleej Saihat 32% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 58% | BTTS 60% | xG Al Kholood 1.65 / Al Khaleej Saihat 1.36 • Poisson strength factors: Al Kholood attack 0.929 / def 1.089 | Al Khaleej Saihat attack 0.926 / def 1.172 | league avg home 1.517 / away 1.352 • Poisson stance: Al Kholood (44%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.65
Al Kholood xG
Expected Goals
1.36
Al Khaleej Saihat xG
60%
BTTS
80%
Over 1.5
58%
Over 2.5
36%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Al Kholood vs Al Khaleej Saihat kick off?
Al Kholood vs Al Khaleej Saihat kicked off at 19:00 on Saturday 1 March 2025 at Ar-Rass Stadium.
What was the final score in Al Kholood vs Al Khaleej Saihat?
Al Kholood 2 - 1 Al Khaleej Saihat.
Where is Al Kholood vs Al Khaleej Saihat being played?
The match is being played at Ar-Rass Stadium.
What competition is Al Kholood vs Al Khaleej Saihat part of?
Al Kholood vs Al Khaleej Saihat is a Regular Season - 23 fixture in the Pro League (Saudi-Arabia).
Who is favourite to win Al Kholood vs Al Khaleej Saihat?
Our statistical model gives Al Kholood a 44% chance of winning, Al Khaleej Saihat a 32% chance, and a 24% chance of a draw — making Al Kholood the favourite.
Will both teams score in Al Kholood vs Al Khaleej Saihat?
Our model estimates a 60% probability that both Al Kholood and Al Khaleej Saihat will score (BTTS).
Will Al Kholood vs Al Khaleej Saihat have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 58%.
What is the head-to-head record between Al Kholood and Al Khaleej Saihat?
Record (1 meetings): Al Kholood 0W | Draws 0 | Al Khaleej Saihat 1W.
What form are Al Kholood and Al Khaleej Saihat in?
Al Kholood (all comps): 5W-0D-5L in 10 | 1.50 PPG | GF 1.40 / GA 2.00 | L5 L-W-L-W-L. Al Khaleej Saihat (all comps): 2W-4D-4L in 10 | 1.00 PPG | GF 1.20 / GA 1.60 | L5 D-L-L-D-D.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Working from Al Kholood's attack rating (0.93) and Al Khaleej Saihat's defence rating (1.17), the model arrives at 1.65 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Al Khaleej Saihat's attack versus Al Kholood's defence, projects 1.36 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 22/56 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 12.5%. Close behind: 2-1 (9.1%), 1-2 (7.5%). Together the top three scorelines make up 29% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Al Kholood Win
44%
2.26
24%
4.17
32%
3.15
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.0%
Draw
Most likely
2 – 1
9.1%
Home win
1 – 0
8.1%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.65
Al Kholood xG
Total xG
3.02
1.36
Al Khaleej Saihat xG
2.26
44%
Home win
4.17
24%
Draw
3.15
32%
Away win
Goals Markets
80%
Over 1.5
1.25
20%
Under 1.5
5.00
58%
Over 2.5
1.72
42%
Under 2.5
2.38
36%
Over 3.5
2.78
64%
Under 3.5
1.56
19%
Over 4.5
5.26
81%
Under 4.5
1.23
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
60%
BTTS Yes
1.66
40%
BTTS No
2.51
Clean Sheet
26%
3.92
19%
5.22
Win to Nil
11%
8.84
6%
16.44
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4.9 | 6.7 | 4.6 | 2.1 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 8.1 | 11.0 | 7.5 | 3.4 | 1.2 | 0.3 |
| 2 | 6.7 | 9.1 | 6.2 | 2.8 | 1.0 | 0.3 |
| 3 | 3.7 | 5.0 | 3.4 | 1.6 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.5 | 2.1 | 1.4 | 0.6 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.5 | 0.7 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Al Kholood vs Al Khaleej Saihat?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.5%.
How many goals are Al Kholood and Al Khaleej Saihat expected to score?
The model projects 1.65 expected goals for Al Kholood and 1.36 for Al Khaleej Saihat, a combined total of 3.02.
How confident is the prediction model for Al Kholood vs Al Khaleej Saihat?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 44%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Al Kholood's recent record stands at 7W 4D 11L from 22 games, a 1.14 PPG return, with L-W-L-W-L in the last five. The sample for Al Kholood is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Al Khaleej Saihat, meanwhile, have gone 8W 5D 9L across 22 games — 1.32 PPG, with D-L-L-D-D in their last five. The sample for Al Khaleej Saihat is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: Al Kholood on 1.14 PPG, Al Khaleej Saihat on 1.32. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
At home specifically, Al Kholood have managed 4W 2D 4L from 10 games — 1.40 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Al Khaleej Saihat's away record stands at 4W 2D 4L across 10 trips, a 1.40 PPG haul.
Goals in Recent Form
Al Kholood are averaging 1.32 goals scored and 1.91 conceded per game recently; Al Khaleej Saihat are on 1.23 scored and 1.41 conceded.
Last 22 Results — Pro League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Al Kholood
Blended
Al Khaleej Saihat
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Al Kholood and Al Khaleej Saihat in coming into this match?
Al Kholood have gone 7W 4D 11L in their last 22 games (1.14 PPG), while Al Khaleej Saihat have gone 8W 5D 9L in their last 22 (1.32 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Al Kholood at home or Al Khaleej Saihat away?
Al Kholood's home record (1.40 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Al Kholood at home: 1.40 PPG; Al Khaleej Saihat away: 1.40 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
4 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to October 2024. Every recorded meeting has come in Pro League. They last met on 3 April 2026, roughly 5 months ago.
Streaks & Records
Al Kholood's record when hosting Al Khaleej Saihat specifically: 1W 1D 0L from 2 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 4 Meetings
2
Al Kholood
1
Draws
1
Al Khaleej Saihat
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Al Kholood and Al Khaleej Saihat?
From 4 meetings on record, Al Kholood have won 2, Al Khaleej Saihat have won 1, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Al Kholood and Al Khaleej Saihat last play each other?
They last met on 3 April 2026, when Al Kholood 2-2 Al Khaleej Saihat.
Who has won more matches between Al Kholood and Al Khaleej Saihat?
Al Kholood have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from 4 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Al Kholood are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 70% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 20% of those situations.
Al Khaleej Saihat are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 60% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 30% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 20% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Al Kholood 50%, Al Khaleej Saihat 60% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 60% for Al Kholood and 60% for Al Khaleej Saihat. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 40% and 40% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Al Kholood have failed to score in 30% of games; Al Khaleej Saihat in 30%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Al Kholood home games / Al Khaleej Saihat away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Al Kholood play Al Khaleej Saihat?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 50% of Al Kholood's games and 60% of Al Khaleej Saihat's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Al Kholood vs Al Khaleej Saihat usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 60% of Al Kholood's matches and 60% of Al Khaleej Saihat's.
Do Al Kholood and Al Khaleej Saihat tend to score early?
Al Kholood have had a goal before half-time in 70% of their recent matches, Al Khaleej Saihat in 60% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Al Kholood edge out Al Khaleej Saihat 2-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Al Kholood beat Al Khaleej Saihat 2-1 at Ar-Rass Stadium, Regular Season - 23, in the Pro League. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Al Kholood 1.65 xG and Al Khaleej Saihat 1.36 xG, a combined 3.02. The scoreboard read 2-1 for 3 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Al Kholood attack 0.93 / defence 1.09 against Al Khaleej Saihat attack 0.93 / defence 1.17, drawn from 22/56 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Al Kholood 44% | Draw 24% | Al Khaleej Saihat 32%, with Al Kholood to win its most likely call at 44%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 58%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 80% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 60% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 54% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Al Kholood 54%, Al Khaleej Saihat 54%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 55%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Al Kholood's trading profile (22 games, 10 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 59% of their matches — today it did.
Al Khaleej Saihat's trading profile (22 games, 10 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Al Kholood 1.14 PPG, Al Khaleej Saihat 1.32 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Al Kholood win broke the near-deadlock. Al Kholood (home/away splits) conceded 1 against a 1.90 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). The data earned its keep here, calling the bulk of the fixture correctly.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.