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Poisson rates Al-Fayha at 44% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Al-Fayha vs Al Wehda Club encounter.

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Match Analysis

Al-Fayha host Al Wehda Club at Al Majma'ah Sports City Stadium in Pro League, Regular Season - 23. Kick-off is scheduled for Saturday 1 March 2025 at 19:00 UTC.

Form Guide

Al-Fayha — All Games: 3W 5D 2L from 10 Pro League outings this season, averaging 1.40 points per game. Last five: D L W D D. They are averaging 0.90 goals per game and conceding 0.90 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is a standout defensive return — they are keeping their net clean in more than half their matches. This season is still relatively young for Al-Fayha, so this record blends games from this season and last.

At home at Al Majma'ah Sports City Stadium, Al-Fayha have gone 2W 4D 4L this season (10 games, 1.00 PPG). At home they are averaging 0.60 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground. At home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle.

Across all Pro League games this season, Al Wehda Club have recorded 1W 1D 8L from 10 outings — 0.40 PPG. Last five: L L L L L. Their scoring rate of 1.00 per game is modest, conceding 2.50 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Conceding 2.50 per game is a high rate — their defensive vulnerabilities have been exposed regularly this season. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Al Wehda Club, so this record blends games from this season and last.

Al Wehda Club's away record: 1W 1D 8L from 10 road trips in Pro League this season (0.40 PPG). Away from home they average 0.90 goals scored and 2.60 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.

On current form, Al-Fayha have the edge — a 1.00 PPG advantage (1.40 vs 0.40) represents a meaningful gap. That momentum makes them the form-based pick, though if the outright price looks short, Draw No Bet is worth comparing.

Head to Head

There is little to separate the sides historically. From 5 previous meetings, Al-Fayha have won 2, Al Wehda Club 1, with 2 draws — a balanced ledger that offers no obvious directional steer on its own.

The 5 previous meetings have averaged 2.4 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 3 Oct 2024, ended 2–2 with a draw.

The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.

Trading Patterns

Al-Fayha in-play and half-time data (56 games, 27 at home): they score before half-time in 48% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 64% of the time; BTTS occurs in 41% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 37% of games (home games); they fail to score in 36% of games.

Al Wehda Club in-play and half-time data (56 games, 27 at away): they score before half-time in 78% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 92% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 54% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 52% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 56% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 45%; they fail to score in 32% of games.

BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Al-Fayha 54% versus Al Wehda Club 61%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Al-Fayha 50% | Al Wehda Club 62%).

Poisson Model

The Poisson distribution model projects Al-Fayha 1.16 xG and Al Wehda Club 0.81 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Al-Fayha attack 0.608 / defence 0.764 | Al Wehda Club attack 0.787 / defence 1.256. League average goals — home 1.517 / away 1.352. Al-Fayha's attack strength of 0.608 is below the league average — the 1.16 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Al Wehda Club bring a strong defensive rating of 1.256 — this is suppressing Al-Fayha's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Al-Fayha's defence rating of 0.764 is below average — the home backline is amplifying the visitor's projected output. Data: 56 Al-Fayha games / 56 Al Wehda Club games used (CurrentSeason).

Result probabilities: Al-Fayha 44% | Draw 30% | Al Wehda Club 26%. Fair-value odds: Al-Fayha 2.27 | Draw 3.33 | Al Wehda Club 3.85. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 30% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.

Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 32% | BTTS probability 38% | Total xG 1.97. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 68% probability — total xG of 1.97 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match based on both sides' defensive quality. BTTS probability of 38% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.

Analysis Verdict

On the Poisson output, Al-Fayha are the pick at 44% — marginal model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 30% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Al-Fayha offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.

Poisson projects 1.97 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 32% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction.

The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 38%. Form rates corroborate: Al-Fayha 30% | Al Wehda Club 60% BTTS from recent games.

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