Al-Ahli Jeddah 2-2 Al Khaleej Saihat – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model favours Al-Ahli Jeddah (71%) — form and H2H data both point in the same direction as Al-Ahli Jeddah face Al Khaleej Saihat.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Pro League encounter, Regular Season - 24 sees Al Khaleej Saihat travel to Prince Abdullah al-Faisal Stadium to take on Al-Ahli Jeddah. The game is scheduled for Friday 7 March 2025, 19:00 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Pro League games this season, Al-Ahli Jeddah have gone 8W 0D 2L from 10 outings — a 2.40 PPG return. Last five: W L W W W. They are averaging 2.50 goals per game — a high-scoring output that makes them a genuine attacking threat in any fixture. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base. This season is still relatively young for Al-Ahli Jeddah, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Al-Ahli Jeddah's home record at Prince Abdullah al-Faisal Stadium: 7W 1D 2L from 10 Pro League appearances (2.20 PPG). They are averaging 2.50 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
Al Khaleej Saihat — All Games: 2W 4D 4L from 10 Pro League fixtures this season — 1.00 PPG. Last five: L L D D L. Their scoring rate of 1.20 per game is modest, conceding 1.60 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Al Khaleej Saihat, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Al Khaleej Saihat away from home this season: 3W 2D 5L from 10 away games — 1.10 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 1.20 goals scored and 1.90 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
Al-Ahli Jeddah are in the better shape of the two on current Pro League data — 1.40 PPG ahead (2.40 vs 1.00). That form margin is the baseline of a sensible selection even before other signals are layered in.
The BTTS market is worth targeting here. Al-Ahli Jeddah register both teams scoring in 60% of relevant matches, Al Khaleej Saihat in 70% (using home/away splits) — both sides above the 60% threshold gives BTTS Yes firm statistical grounding.
H2H Record
Al-Ahli Jeddah hold a clear advantage in this fixture, picking up 3 wins from 3 previous encounters compared to 0 for Al Khaleej Saihat, with 0 draws in between.
The 3 previous meetings have averaged 2.7 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 18 Oct 2024, ended 3–0 with Al-Ahli Jeddah winning.
The historical record gives Al-Ahli Jeddah a meaningful edge here — 3 wins from 3 meetings is the kind of ledger that should not be discounted when the form picture is inconclusive. Even away from home, the visitors have struggled to impose themselves in this fixture.
Trading Patterns
Al-Ahli Jeddah in-play and half-time data (57 games, 28 at home): they score before half-time in 68% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 76% of the time; BTTS occurs in 46% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 46% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 40%; they keep a clean sheet 42% of the time.
Al Khaleej Saihat in-play and half-time data (57 games, 28 at away): they score before half-time in 75% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 74% of the time; BTTS occurs in 57% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 46% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Al-Ahli Jeddah 49% versus Al Khaleej Saihat 56%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Al-Ahli Jeddah 53% | Al Khaleej Saihat 49%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Al-Ahli Jeddah 2.61 xG and Al Khaleej Saihat 1.06 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Al-Ahli Jeddah attack 1.440 / defence 0.875 | Al Khaleej Saihat attack 0.917 / defence 1.204. League average goals — home 1.506 / away 1.319. Al-Ahli Jeddah carry an above-average attack strength of 1.440 — their λ of 2.61 reflects genuine attacking quality above the league norm. Al Khaleej Saihat bring a strong defensive rating of 1.204 — this is suppressing Al-Ahli Jeddah's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 57 Al-Ahli Jeddah games / 57 Al Khaleej Saihat games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Al-Ahli Jeddah 71% | Draw 16% | Al Khaleej Saihat 13%. Fair-value odds: Al-Ahli Jeddah 1.41 | Draw 6.25 | Al Khaleej Saihat 7.69. The model has a clear lean to Al-Ahli Jeddah (71%) — a 58pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 71% | BTTS probability 61% | Total xG 3.67. Over 2.5 is the model's clear signal at 71% — a total xG of 3.67 means the expected score alone exceeds the 2.5 threshold, making the Over not just likely but structurally supported by both sides' attack/defence profiles. BTTS Yes at 61% reflects that both xG figures (2.61 / 1.06) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Al-Ahli Jeddah as the most likely outcome at 71% — clear model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support.
Poisson projects 3.67 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 71% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by form averaging 3.4 goals per game.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 61%. Form rates corroborate: Al-Ahli Jeddah 60% | Al Khaleej Saihat 70% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Al-Ahli Jeddah vs Al Khaleej Saihat | Competition: Pro League, Regular Season - 24 | Venue: Prince Abdullah al-Faisal Stadium • Kick-off: Friday 7 Mar 2025, 19:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Al-Ahli Jeddah 71% | Draw 16% | Al Khaleej Saihat 13% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 71% | BTTS 61% | xG Al-Ahli Jeddah 2.61 / Al Khaleej Saihat 1.06 • Poisson strength factors: Al-Ahli Jeddah attack 1.440 / def 0.875 | Al Khaleej Saihat attack 0.917 / def 1.204 | league avg home 1.506 / away 1.319 • Poisson stance: Al-Ahli Jeddah (71%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
2.61
Al-Ahli Jeddah xG
Expected Goals
1.06
Al Khaleej Saihat xG
61%
BTTS
88%
Over 1.5
71%
Over 2.5
50%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Al-Ahli Jeddah vs Al Khaleej Saihat kick off?
Al-Ahli Jeddah vs Al Khaleej Saihat kicked off at 19:00 on Friday 7 March 2025 at Prince Abdullah al-Faisal Stadium.
What was the final score in Al-Ahli Jeddah vs Al Khaleej Saihat?
Al-Ahli Jeddah 2 - 2 Al Khaleej Saihat.
Where is Al-Ahli Jeddah vs Al Khaleej Saihat being played?
The match is being played at Prince Abdullah al-Faisal Stadium.
What competition is Al-Ahli Jeddah vs Al Khaleej Saihat part of?
Al-Ahli Jeddah vs Al Khaleej Saihat is a Regular Season - 24 fixture in the Pro League (Saudi-Arabia).
Who is favourite to win Al-Ahli Jeddah vs Al Khaleej Saihat?
Our statistical model gives Al-Ahli Jeddah a 71% chance of winning, Al Khaleej Saihat a 13% chance, and a 16% chance of a draw — making Al-Ahli Jeddah the favourite.
Will both teams score in Al-Ahli Jeddah vs Al Khaleej Saihat?
Our model estimates a 61% probability that both Al-Ahli Jeddah and Al Khaleej Saihat will score (BTTS).
Will Al-Ahli Jeddah vs Al Khaleej Saihat have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 71%.
What is the head-to-head record between Al-Ahli Jeddah and Al Khaleej Saihat?
Record (3 meetings): Al-Ahli Jeddah 3W | Draws 0 | Al Khaleej Saihat 0W.
What form are Al-Ahli Jeddah and Al Khaleej Saihat in?
Al-Ahli Jeddah (all comps): 8W-0D-2L in 10 | 2.40 PPG | GF 2.50 / GA 1.00 | L5 W-L-W-W-W. Al Khaleej Saihat (all comps): 2W-4D-4L in 10 | 1.00 PPG | GF 1.20 / GA 1.60 | L5 L-L-D-D-L.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Working from Al-Ahli Jeddah's attack rating (1.44) and Al Khaleej Saihat's defence rating (1.20), the model arrives at 2.61 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Al Khaleej Saihat's attack versus Al-Ahli Jeddah's defence, projects 1.06 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 57/57 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 2-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 9.2%. Close behind: 2-0 (8.7%), 3-1 (8.0%). Together the top three scorelines make up 26% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Al-Ahli Jeddah Win
71%
1.42
16%
6.16
13%
7.62
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
2 – 1
9.2%
Home win
Most likely
2 – 0
8.7%
Home win
3 – 1
8.0%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
2.61
Al-Ahli Jeddah xG
Total xG
3.67
1.06
Al Khaleej Saihat xG
1.42
71%
Home win
6.16
16%
Draw
7.62
13%
Away win
Goals Markets
88%
Over 1.5
1.14
12%
Under 1.5
8.33
71%
Over 2.5
1.41
29%
Under 2.5
3.45
50%
Over 3.5
2.00
50%
Under 3.5
2.00
31%
Over 4.5
3.23
69%
Under 4.5
1.45
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
61%
BTTS Yes
1.65
39%
BTTS No
2.53
Clean Sheet
35%
2.88
7%
13.63
Win to Nil
25%
4.08
1%
103.86
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 2.5 | 2.7 | 1.4 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 1 | 6.7 | 7.0 | 3.7 | 1.3 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 8.7 | 9.2 | 4.9 | 1.7 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 7.6 | 8.0 | 4.2 | 1.5 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 4.9 | 5.2 | 2.8 | 1.0 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 2.6 | 2.7 | 1.4 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Al-Ahli Jeddah vs Al Khaleej Saihat?
Our Poisson model rates 2-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 9.2%.
How many goals are Al-Ahli Jeddah and Al Khaleej Saihat expected to score?
The model projects 2.61 expected goals for Al-Ahli Jeddah and 1.06 for Al Khaleej Saihat, a combined total of 3.67.
How confident is the prediction model for Al-Ahli Jeddah vs Al Khaleej Saihat?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 71%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Al-Ahli Jeddah come into this having played 57 games, going 34W 10D 13L for 1.96 points per game. Their last five reads W-L-W-W-W. The sample for Al-Ahli Jeddah is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Al Khaleej Saihat sit at 1.16 PPG from 57 outings (17W 15D 25L), a run that reads L-L-D-D-L across their last five. The sample for Al Khaleej Saihat is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Al-Ahli Jeddah carry the stronger recent form of the two, 0.80 PPG clear of Al Khaleej Saihat — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
Venue Form
Al-Ahli Jeddah's home form reads 19W 5D 4L across 28 games on their own ground, a 2.21 PPG return.
Away from home, Al Khaleej Saihat have taken 1.29 points per game from 28 outings (10W 6D 12L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Al-Ahli Jeddah come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Al-Ahli Jeddah are averaging 1.96 goals scored and 0.98 conceded per game recently; Al Khaleej Saihat are on 1.12 scored and 1.40 conceded.
Defensively: Al-Ahli Jeddah have kept a clean sheet in 42% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 57 Results — Pro League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Al-Ahli Jeddah
Blended
Al Khaleej Saihat
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Al-Ahli Jeddah and Al Khaleej Saihat in coming into this match?
Al-Ahli Jeddah have gone 34W 10D 13L in their last 57 games (1.96 PPG), while Al Khaleej Saihat have gone 17W 15D 25L in their last 57 (1.16 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Al-Ahli Jeddah at home or Al Khaleej Saihat away?
Al-Ahli Jeddah's home record (2.21 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Al-Ahli Jeddah at home: 2.21 PPG; Al Khaleej Saihat away: 1.29 PPG.
Have Al-Ahli Jeddah or Al Khaleej Saihat been keeping clean sheets recently?
Al-Ahli Jeddah have kept a clean sheet in 42% of their recent games, Al Khaleej Saihat in 25%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
6 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to August 2023. Every recorded meeting has come in Pro League. They last met on 20 May 2026, roughly 3 months ago.
Streaks & Records
Al-Ahli Jeddah have won the last 2 meetings between these two, a run that gives them the psychological edge coming in.
The biggest gap between the sides came on 18 Oct 2024, when Al-Ahli Jeddah won 0-3 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Al-Ahli Jeddah's record when hosting Al Khaleej Saihat specifically: 2W 1D 0L from 3 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 6 Meetings
5
Al-Ahli Jeddah
1
Draws
0
Al Khaleej Saihat
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Al-Ahli Jeddah and Al Khaleej Saihat?
From 6 meetings on record, Al-Ahli Jeddah have won 5, Al Khaleej Saihat have won 0, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Al-Ahli Jeddah and Al Khaleej Saihat last play each other?
They last met on 20 May 2026, when Al Khaleej Saihat 1-4 Al-Ahli Jeddah.
Who has won more matches between Al-Ahli Jeddah and Al Khaleej Saihat?
Al-Ahli Jeddah have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from 6 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Al-Ahli Jeddah are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 68% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 54% of the time.
Al Khaleej Saihat are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 75% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 32% of the time.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Al-Ahli Jeddah 46%, Al Khaleej Saihat 57% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 46% (Al-Ahli Jeddah) and 46% (Al Khaleej Saihat).
On the defensive side: Al-Ahli Jeddah keep a clean sheet in 50% of their matches.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Al-Ahli Jeddah home games / Al Khaleej Saihat away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Al-Ahli Jeddah play Al Khaleej Saihat?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 46% of Al-Ahli Jeddah's recent matches and 57% of Al Khaleej Saihat's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Al-Ahli Jeddah vs Al Khaleej Saihat usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 46% of Al-Ahli Jeddah's recent games and 46% of Al Khaleej Saihat's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Al-Ahli Jeddah and Al Khaleej Saihat tend to score early?
Al-Ahli Jeddah have had a goal before half-time in 68% of their recent matches, Al Khaleej Saihat in 75% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Al-Ahli Jeddah and Al Khaleej Saihat share the spoils in a 2-2 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at Prince Abdullah al-Faisal Stadium, Regular Season - 24, as Al-Ahli Jeddah and Al Khaleej Saihat drew 2-2 in the Pro League. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Al-Ahli Jeddah 2.61 xG and Al Khaleej Saihat 1.06 xG, a combined 3.67. The scoreboard read 2-2 for 4 actual goals. Al Khaleej Saihat outscored their 1.06 projection by 0.9. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Al-Ahli Jeddah attack 1.44 / defence 0.88 against Al Khaleej Saihat attack 0.92 / defence 1.20, drawn from 57/57 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Al-Ahli Jeddah 71% | Draw 16% | Al Khaleej Saihat 13%, with Al-Ahli Jeddah to win its most likely call at 71%. Instead the game produced a draw, an outcome the model had rated at just 16% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 71%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 88% and landed. Over 3.5 was 50% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 61% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 51% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Al-Ahli Jeddah 53%, Al Khaleej Saihat 49%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 53%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Al-Ahli Jeddah's trading profile (57 games, 28 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 49% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 42% of the time, and conceded here.
Al Khaleej Saihat's trading profile (57 games, 28 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 56% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
On form, Al-Ahli Jeddah arrived the stronger side — 1.96 PPG against 1.16. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win. Al-Ahli Jeddah (home/away splits) shipped 2 against a 0.75 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Al Khaleej Saihat (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 1.07 average — above their attacking norm.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (miss). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.