Al Khaleej Saihat 0-5 Al-Nassr – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model favours Al-Nassr (56%) — recent form and the head-to-head data both point the same way as Al Khaleej Saihat face Al-Nassr.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
Al-Nassr travel to Prince Mohamed bin Fahd Stadium to take on Al Khaleej Saihat in Pro League (matchday 26). The game is scheduled for Saturday 14 March 2026 at 19:00 UK time.
Form Guide
Al Khaleej Saihat — last 10 games: 1W 3D 6L, averaging 0.60 points per game. Last five: D L L L W. They are averaging 0.80 goals per game and conceding 1.60 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings (10%). Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.
Al Khaleej Saihat's form when playing at home: 4W 2D 4L across their last 10 home games (1.40 PPG). They are averaging 2.00 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. Their home PPG of 1.40 is noticeably stronger than their overall 0.60 — Al Khaleej Saihat are significantly better at home than their overall form suggests.
Looking at their last 10 matches, Al-Nassr stand at 10W 0D 0L — 3.00 PPG. Last five: W W W W W. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.40 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. Defensively, 0.20 goals conceded per game is elite-level — a side this difficult to score against is a real threat to Over 2.5 and BTTS Yes. 8 clean sheets from 10 games (80%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not. Both teams have scored in only 20% of their fixtures — a very low rate that strongly backs BTTS No.
Al-Nassr's form when playing away from home: 7W 1D 2L across their last 10 road games (2.20 PPG). They are averaging 2.40 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support. 4 clean sheets from their last 10 away games (40%) shows they are capable of shutting up shop on the road. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context. Their away PPG of 2.20 is notably below their overall 3.00 — form away from home has been a clear weakness recently.
Despite the home advantage, the form figures favour Al-Nassr — 2.40 PPG ahead of the hosts (3.00 vs 0.60). That gap is large enough to take seriously. Draw No Bet on the visitors neutralises home-ground risk while maintaining the form-backed selection.
Head to Head
Al-Nassr have tended to come out on top in this fixture, winning 6 of the 7 H2H matches we hold against 0 for Al Khaleej Saihat.
The 7 H2H matches in our data averaged 2.4 goals per game — a neutral rate that gives no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent of those, on 23 Nov 2025, ended Al Khaleej Saihat 1–4 Al-Nassr — a Al-Nassr win.
Al-Nassr have the better head-to-head record despite being the visitors — 6 wins from 7 H2H matches. Home advantage alone is not a reason to dismiss that.
In-Play Profile
Al Khaleej Saihat in-play tendencies (last 59 games, 29 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 59% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 84% of the time; of the 17 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 47%; of the 14 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 29%; BTTS occurs in 48% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 55% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 37%.
Al-Nassr in-play tendencies (last 59 games, 29 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 79% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 93% of those occasions; they lead at the break 56% of the time; of the 6 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 67%; BTTS occurs in 62% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 76% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 44%.
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Al Khaleej Saihat 63% and Al-Nassr 63% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. Over 2.5 goals is well-supported by both sides' in-play profiles (Al Khaleej Saihat 63% | Al-Nassr 70%). There is an in-play dynamic worth noting: Al Khaleej Saihat surrender their half-time lead 47% of the time, while Al-Nassr have come from behind at the break to draw or win in 67% of cases — a combination that makes laying the hosts at HT a potential angle.
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Al Khaleej Saihat 1.17 xG and Al-Nassr 2.01 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Al Khaleej Saihat attack 1.032 / defence 0.953 | Al-Nassr attack 1.470 / defence 0.743. League average goals — home 1.527 / away 1.432. Al-Nassr bring a tight defence (rating 0.743, below 1 = concedes less than average) — this is pulling Al Khaleej Saihat's projected output down. Al-Nassr have an above-average attack rating of 1.470, which lifts their away xG to 2.01. Data: built from Al Khaleej Saihat's last 59 games and Al-Nassr's last 59.
Result probabilities: Al Khaleej Saihat 21% | Draw 22% | Al-Nassr 56%. Fair-value odds: Al Khaleej Saihat 4.68 | Draw 4.47 | Al-Nassr 1.78. The model has a clear lean to Al-Nassr (56%) — a 34pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 62% | BTTS Yes probability 60% | Total xG 3.18. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 62% — the 3.18 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 60% — both xG figures (1.17 / 2.01) are high enough that each side is projected to find the net.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Al-Nassr are the pick at 56% — clear model lean. Recent form and the head-to-head data both align with the Poisson read — multi-source corroboration increases confidence in this selection. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 22% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
Poisson projects 3.18 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 62% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by recent form (Al Khaleej Saihat's last 10 home games and Al-Nassr's last 10 away games) averaging 3.4 goals per game.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 60%. Form rates corroborate — both teams scored in: Al Khaleej Saihat 50% (last 10 home games) | Al-Nassr 60% (last 10 away games).
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Al Khaleej Saihat vs Al-Nassr | Competition: Pro League, matchday 26 | Venue: Prince Mohamed bin Fahd Stadium • Kick-off: Saturday 14 March 2026 at 19:00 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Al Khaleej Saihat 21% | Draw 22% | Al-Nassr 56% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 62% (Under 38%) | BTTS Yes 60% (No 40%) | xG Al Khaleej Saihat 1.17 / Al-Nassr 2.01 • Poisson strength factors: Al Khaleej Saihat attack 1.032 / def 0.953 | Al-Nassr attack 1.470 / def 0.743 | league avg home 1.527 / away 1.432 • Poisson stance: Al-Nassr (56%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.17
Al Khaleej Saihat xG
Expected Goals
2.01
Al-Nassr xG
60%
BTTS
83%
Over 1.5
62%
Over 2.5
39%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Al Khaleej Saihat vs Al-Nassr FAQs
What time does Al Khaleej Saihat vs Al-Nassr kick off?
Al Khaleej Saihat vs Al-Nassr kicked off at 19:00 UK time on Saturday 14 March 2026 at Prince Mohamed bin Fahd Stadium.
What was the final score in Al Khaleej Saihat vs Al-Nassr?
Al Khaleej Saihat 0 - 5 Al-Nassr.
Where is Al Khaleej Saihat vs Al-Nassr being played?
The match is being played at Prince Mohamed bin Fahd Stadium.
What competition is Al Khaleej Saihat vs Al-Nassr part of?
Al Khaleej Saihat vs Al-Nassr is a Pro League fixture (matchday 26) (Saudi-Arabia).
Who is favourite to win Al Khaleej Saihat vs Al-Nassr?
Our statistical model gives Al Khaleej Saihat a 21% chance of winning, Al-Nassr a 56% chance, and a 22% chance of a draw — making Al-Nassr the favourite.
Will both teams score in Al Khaleej Saihat vs Al-Nassr?
Our model estimates a 60% probability that both Al Khaleej Saihat and Al-Nassr will score, so it leans towards BTTS Yes.
Will Al Khaleej Saihat vs Al-Nassr have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 62%, so it leans towards over 2.5 goals.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Al Khaleej Saihat's attacking strength (1.03x league average) is weighed against Al-Nassr's defensive record (0.74x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.17. The same calculation in reverse, Al-Nassr's attack versus Al Khaleej Saihat's defence, projects 2.01 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from Al Khaleej Saihat's last 59 games and Al-Nassr's last 59 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 11.1%. Close behind: 1-2 (9.8%), 0-2 (8.4%). Together the top three scorelines make up 29% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Al-Nassr Win
21%
4.68
22%
4.47
56%
1.78
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
9.8%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 2
9.8%
Away win
0 – 1
8.4%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.17
Al Khaleej Saihat xG
Total xG
3.18
2.01
Al-Nassr xG
4.68
21%
Home win
4.47
22%
Draw
1.78
56%
Away win
Goals Markets
83%
Over 1.5
1.20
17%
Under 1.5
5.88
62%
Over 2.5
1.61
38%
Under 2.5
2.63
39%
Over 3.5
2.56
61%
Under 3.5
1.64
22%
Over 4.5
4.55
78%
Under 4.5
1.28
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
60%
BTTS Yes
1.66
40%
BTTS No
2.51
Clean Sheet
13%
7.43
31%
3.23
Win to Nil
3%
34.75
17%
5.73
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4.2 | 8.4 | 8.4 | 5.6 | 2.8 | 1.1 |
| 1 | 4.9 | 9.8 | 9.8 | 6.6 | 3.3 | 1.3 |
| 2 | 2.9 | 5.7 | 5.8 | 3.8 | 1.9 | 0.8 |
| 3 | 1.1 | 2.2 | 2.2 | 1.5 | 0.8 | 0.3 |
| 4 | 0.3 | 0.7 | 0.7 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Al Khaleej Saihat vs Al-Nassr Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for Al Khaleej Saihat vs Al-Nassr?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 11.1%.
How many goals are Al Khaleej Saihat and Al-Nassr expected to score?
The model projects 1.17 expected goals for Al Khaleej Saihat and 2.01 for Al-Nassr, a combined total of 3.18.
How confident is the prediction model for Al Khaleej Saihat vs Al-Nassr?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 56%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Across their last 59 outings, Al Khaleej Saihat have picked up 1.14 PPG on a 18W 13D 28L record — D-L-L-L-W across the most recent five.
Al-Nassr's form line: 41W 8D 10L from 59 games, 2.22 PPG, last five W-W-W-W-W.
Put side by side, Al-Nassr are the form team by 1.08 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against Al Khaleej Saihat.
Venue Form
On home soil, Al Khaleej Saihat have posted 1.14 PPG from their last 29 home games (9W 6D 14L).
On the road, Al-Nassr have gone 20W 3D 6L from their last 29 away games — 2.17 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Al-Nassr come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Al Khaleej Saihat are averaging 1.42 goals scored and 1.63 conceded per game recently; Al-Nassr are on 2.44 scored and 1.00 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Al Khaleej Saihat have seen both teams score in 63% of their recent games; Al-Nassr in 63%.
Defensively: Al-Nassr in 37% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 59 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Al Khaleej Saihat
Blended
Al-Nassr
Blended
Al Khaleej Saihat (Home) vs Al-Nassr (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
Al Khaleej Saihat
Blended
Al-Nassr
Blended
❓ Al Khaleej Saihat vs Al-Nassr Form FAQs
What form are Al Khaleej Saihat and Al-Nassr in coming into this match?
Al Khaleej Saihat have gone 18W 13D 28L in their last 59 games (1.14 PPG), while Al-Nassr have gone 41W 8D 10L in their last 59 (2.22 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Al Khaleej Saihat at home or Al-Nassr away?
Al-Nassr's away record (2.17 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Al Khaleej Saihat at home: 1.14 PPG; Al-Nassr away: 2.17 PPG.
Have Al Khaleej Saihat or Al-Nassr been keeping clean sheets recently?
Al Khaleej Saihat have kept a clean sheet in 15% of their recent games, Al-Nassr in 37%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
This section is based on the 9 H2H matches we hold for this pairing, spanning roughly 3 years from December 2022. All of them came in Pro League. The most recent was as recently as 12 September 2026, so it is a fresh reference point.
Streaks & Records
The biggest gap in our H2H data came on 14 Mar 2026, when Al-Nassr won Al Khaleej Saihat 0-5 Al-Nassr.
Al Khaleej Saihat's record when hosting Al-Nassr specifically: 0W 1D 4L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 9 Meetings
0
Al Khaleej Saihat
2
Draws
7
Al-Nassr
Recent Meetings
❓ Al Khaleej Saihat vs Al-Nassr H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between Al Khaleej Saihat and Al-Nassr?
Across the 9 head-to-head matches in our data, Al Khaleej Saihat have won 0, Al-Nassr have won 7, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Al Khaleej Saihat and Al-Nassr last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 12 September 2026: Al Khaleej Saihat 1-1 Al-Nassr.
Who has won more matches between Al Khaleej Saihat and Al-Nassr?
Al-Nassr have the better head-to-head record, with 7 wins from the 9 head-to-head matches in our data.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Al Khaleej Saihat see a goal before the break in 59% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 31% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 33% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 25% of those situations.
Al-Nassr are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 79% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 48% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 60% of those situations.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Al Khaleej Saihat 48%, Al-Nassr 62% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 55% for Al Khaleej Saihat and 76% for Al-Nassr. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 34% and 48% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Al-Nassr in 38%; Al Khaleej Saihat have failed to score in 34% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Al Khaleej Saihat home games / Al-Nassr away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Al Khaleej Saihat vs Al-Nassr Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in Al Khaleej Saihat and Al-Nassr matches?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 48% of Al Khaleej Saihat's games and 62% of Al-Nassr's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Are Al Khaleej Saihat and Al-Nassr matches usually high-scoring?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 55% of Al Khaleej Saihat's matches and 76% of Al-Nassr's.
Do Al Khaleej Saihat and Al-Nassr matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 59% of Al Khaleej Saihat's recent matches and 79% of Al-Nassr's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Dominant Al-Nassr run riot with a 0-5 hammering of Al Khaleej Saihat.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Al-Nassr beat Al Khaleej Saihat 0-5 at Prince Mohamed bin Fahd Stadium, Regular Season - 26, in the Pro League. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Al Khaleej Saihat 1.17 xG and Al-Nassr 2.01 xG, a combined 3.18. The scoreboard read 0-5 for 5 actual goals. Al Khaleej Saihat fell 1.2 short of their projected output. Al-Nassr outscored their 2.01 projection by 3.0. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Al Khaleej Saihat attack 1.03 / defence 0.95 against Al-Nassr attack 1.47 / defence 0.74, drawn from 59/59 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Al Khaleej Saihat 21% | Draw 22% | Al-Nassr 56%, with Al-Nassr to win its most likely call at 56%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 62%. The game delivered 5, so it went over — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 83% and landed. Over 3.5 was 39% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 60% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 66% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Al Khaleej Saihat 63%, Al-Nassr 70%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 63%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Al Khaleej Saihat's trading profile (59 games, 29 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 63% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 27% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Al-Nassr's trading profile (59 games, 29 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 63% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 37% of the time, and duly kept one.
Form vs Result
On form, Al-Nassr arrived the stronger side — 2.22 PPG against 1.14. That form edge translated into the three points. Al Khaleej Saihat (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.48 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 5 against a 1.41 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Al-Nassr (home/away splits) scored 5 against a 2.52 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 0 against a 1.10 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss), form (hit). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.