Al-Hazm 1-1 Al-Ittihad FC – Result & Analysis
Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.
Poisson rates Al-Ittihad FC at 71% — the head-to-head data provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Al-Hazm vs Al-Ittihad FC encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
Al-Ittihad FC travel to Al-Hazem Club Stadium to take on Al-Hazm in Pro League (matchday 10). The game is scheduled for Tuesday 24 February 2026 at 19:00 UK time.
Form Analysis
Looking at their last 10 matches, Al-Hazm stand at 3W 2D 5L — 1.10 PPG. Last five: L D L W L. They are averaging 1.10 goals per game and conceding 2.50 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. However, 2.50 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.
Al-Hazm at home: 3W 1D 6L from their last 10 home games — 1.00 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.00 goals scored and 2.30 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
Al-Ittihad FC — last 10 games: 4W 3D 3L — 1.50 PPG. Last five: D W L W D. Their scoring rate of 1.40 per game is modest, conceding 1.10 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings (20%). Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.
Al-Ittihad FC away from home: 3W 5D 2L from their last 10 away games — 1.40 PPG on the road. They are averaging 1.80 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
The form figures are too closely matched to derive a directional pick: Al-Hazm 1.10 PPG, Al-Ittihad FC 1.50 PPG. Look to other data sets to build the analysis.
The BTTS market is worth targeting here. Both teams have scored in 60% of Al-Hazm's games and 70% of Al-Ittihad FC's (from Al-Hazm's last 10 home games and Al-Ittihad FC's last 10 away games) — both sides above the 60% threshold gives BTTS Yes firm statistical grounding.
Head to Head
Despite the home advantage, Al-Ittihad FC have the better record in our head-to-head data — 3 wins from 4 H2H matches against 0 for Al-Hazm.
The 4 H2H matches in our data have been high-scoring — 3.2 goals per game on average — which backs the Over 2.5 market from the head-to-head side. The most recent of those, on 20 Apr 2024, ended Al-Hazm 2–3 Al-Ittihad FC — a Al-Ittihad FC win.
The H2H data backs the away side. Al-Ittihad FC have won 3 of 4 H2H matches, and at 3.2 goals per game the goals market also points upward — the away win and Over 2.5 combination has a head-to-head case.
In-Play Data
Al-Hazm trading profile (last 22 games, 10 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 40% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 80% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 70% of those occasions; of the 4 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 25%; of the 7 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 43%; BTTS occurs in 60% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 70% of games (home games); they fail to score in 41% of games.
Al-Ittihad FC trading profile (last 22 games, 10 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 80% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; of the 5 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 60%; BTTS occurs in 70% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Al-Hazm 59% versus Al-Ittihad FC 54%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Al-Hazm 64% | Al-Ittihad FC 46%). There is an in-play dynamic worth noting: Al-Hazm surrender their half-time lead 25% of the time, while Al-Ittihad FC have come from behind at the break to draw or win in 60% of cases — a combination that makes laying the hosts at HT a potential angle.
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Al-Hazm 1.15 xG and Al-Ittihad FC 2.79 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Al-Hazm attack 0.823 / defence 1.639 | Al-Ittihad FC attack 1.234 / defence 0.933. League average goals — home 1.491 / away 1.378. Al-Ittihad FC have an above-average attack rating of 1.234, which lifts their away xG to 2.79. Al-Hazm's defence rating of 1.639 (above 1 = concedes more than average) is pushing Al-Ittihad FC's projected output up. Data: built from Al-Hazm's last 22 games and Al-Ittihad FC's last 56.
Result probabilities: Al-Hazm 13% | Draw 16% | Al-Ittihad FC 71%. Fair-value odds: Al-Hazm 7.78 | Draw 6.37 | Al-Ittihad FC 1.40. The model has a clear lean to Al-Ittihad FC (71%) — a 55pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 75% | BTTS Yes probability 64% | Total xG 3.93. Over 2.5 is the model's clear signal at 75% — a total xG of 3.93 means the expected score alone exceeds the 2.5 threshold, making the Over not just likely but structurally supported by both sides' attack/defence profiles. BTTS Yes at 64% — both xG figures (1.15 / 2.79) are high enough that each side is projected to find the net.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Al-Ittihad FC at 71% — clear model lean. The head-to-head data (Al-Ittihad FC 3 wins from 4 H2H matches) corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support.
The Poisson model projects 3.93 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 75% — strong conviction, supported by recent form (Al-Hazm's last 10 home games and Al-Ittihad FC's last 10 away games) averaging 3.2 goals per game and the H2H data averaging 3.2 goals per game across 4 H2H matches.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 64% on Yes. Form rates corroborate — both teams scored in: Al-Hazm 60% (last 10 home games) | Al-Ittihad FC 70% (last 10 away games).
🔮 Your Prediction
Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.
💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Al-Hazm vs Al-Ittihad FC | Competition: Pro League, matchday 10 | Venue: Al-Hazem Club Stadium • Kick-off: Tuesday 24 February 2026 at 19:00 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Al-Hazm 13% | Draw 16% | Al-Ittihad FC 71% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 75% (Under 25%) | BTTS Yes 64% (No 36%) | xG Al-Hazm 1.15 / Al-Ittihad FC 2.79 • Poisson strength factors: Al-Hazm attack 0.823 / def 1.639 | Al-Ittihad FC attack 1.234 / def 0.933 | league avg home 1.491 / away 1.378 • Poisson stance: Al-Ittihad FC (71%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.15
Al-Hazm xG
Expected Goals
2.79
Al-Ittihad FC xG
64%
BTTS
90%
Over 1.5
75%
Over 2.5
55%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Al-Hazm vs Al-Ittihad FC FAQs
What time does Al-Hazm vs Al-Ittihad FC kick off?
Al-Hazm vs Al-Ittihad FC kicked off at 19:00 UK time on Tuesday 24 February 2026 at Al-Hazem Club Stadium.
What was the final score in Al-Hazm vs Al-Ittihad FC?
Al-Hazm 1 - 1 Al-Ittihad FC.
Where is Al-Hazm vs Al-Ittihad FC being played?
The match is being played at Al-Hazem Club Stadium.
What competition is Al-Hazm vs Al-Ittihad FC part of?
Al-Hazm vs Al-Ittihad FC is a Pro League fixture (matchday 10) (Saudi-Arabia).
Who is favourite to win Al-Hazm vs Al-Ittihad FC?
Our statistical model gives Al-Hazm a 13% chance of winning, Al-Ittihad FC a 71% chance, and a 16% chance of a draw — making Al-Ittihad FC the favourite.
Will both teams score in Al-Hazm vs Al-Ittihad FC?
Our model estimates a 64% probability that both Al-Hazm and Al-Ittihad FC will score, so it leans towards BTTS Yes.
Will Al-Hazm vs Al-Ittihad FC have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 75%, so it leans towards over 2.5 goals.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Al-Hazm's attacking strength (0.82x league average) is weighed against Al-Ittihad FC's defensive record (0.93x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.15. The same calculation in reverse, Al-Ittihad FC's attack versus Al-Hazm's defence, projects 2.79 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from Al-Hazm's last 22 games and Al-Ittihad FC's last 56 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-2, at 8.7%. Close behind: 1-3 (8.1%), 0-2 (7.6%). Together the top three scorelines make up 24% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Al-Ittihad FC Win
13%
7.78
16%
6.37
71%
1.40
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 2
8.7%
Away win
Most likely
1 – 3
8.1%
Away win
0 – 2
7.6%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.15
Al-Hazm xG
Total xG
3.93
2.79
Al-Ittihad FC xG
7.78
13%
Home win
6.37
16%
Draw
1.40
71%
Away win
Goals Markets
90%
Over 1.5
1.11
10%
Under 1.5
10.00
75%
Over 2.5
1.33
25%
Under 2.5
4.00
55%
Over 3.5
1.82
45%
Under 3.5
2.22
36%
Over 4.5
2.78
64%
Under 4.5
1.56
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
64%
BTTS Yes
1.56
36%
BTTS No
2.79
Clean Sheet
6%
16.25
32%
3.14
Win to Nil
1%
126.45
23%
4.40
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 2.0 | 5.5 | 7.6 | 7.1 | 4.9 | 2.7 |
| 1 | 2.2 | 6.3 | 8.7 | 8.1 | 5.6 | 3.1 |
| 2 | 1.3 | 3.6 | 5.0 | 4.6 | 3.2 | 1.8 |
| 3 | 0.5 | 1.4 | 1.9 | 1.8 | 1.2 | 0.7 |
| 4 | 0.1 | 0.4 | 0.5 | 0.5 | 0.4 | 0.2 |
| 5 | – | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Al-Hazm vs Al-Ittihad FC Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for Al-Hazm vs Al-Ittihad FC?
Our Poisson model rates 1-2 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 8.7%.
How many goals are Al-Hazm and Al-Ittihad FC expected to score?
The model projects 1.15 expected goals for Al-Hazm and 2.79 for Al-Ittihad FC, a combined total of 3.93.
How confident is the prediction model for Al-Hazm vs Al-Ittihad FC?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 71%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Across their last 22 outings, Al-Hazm have picked up 1.09 PPG on a 6W 6D 10L record — L-D-L-W-L across the most recent five.
Al-Ittihad FC's form line: 11W 5D 6L from 22 games, 1.73 PPG, last five D-W-L-W-D.
Put side by side, Al-Ittihad FC are the form team by 0.64 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against Al-Hazm.
Home Ground vs the Road
On home soil, Al-Hazm have posted 1.00 PPG from their last 10 home games (3W 1D 6L).
On the road, Al-Ittihad FC have gone 3W 5D 2L from their last 10 away games — 1.40 PPG when travelling.
The Goals Picture
Al-Hazm are averaging 1.00 goals scored and 1.91 conceded per game recently; Al-Ittihad FC are on 1.68 scored and 1.23 conceded.
Last 22 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Al-Hazm
Blended
Al-Ittihad FC
Blended
Al-Hazm (Home) vs Al-Ittihad FC (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
Al-Hazm
Blended
Al-Ittihad FC
Blended
❓ Al-Hazm vs Al-Ittihad FC Form FAQs
What form are Al-Hazm and Al-Ittihad FC in coming into this match?
Al-Hazm have gone 6W 6D 10L in their last 22 games (1.09 PPG), while Al-Ittihad FC have gone 11W 5D 6L in their last 22 (1.73 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Al-Hazm at home or Al-Ittihad FC away?
Al-Ittihad FC's away record (1.40 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Al-Hazm at home: 1.00 PPG; Al-Ittihad FC away: 1.40 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The head-to-head numbers here are drawn from the 7 H2H matches in our data, going back to October 2021. All of them came in Pro League. The most recent was as recently as 24 August 2026, so it is a fresh reference point.
Digging Into the Numbers
Al-Ittihad FC have won each of the latest 2 H2H matches we hold, a run that gives them the edge coming in.
The biggest gap in our H2H data came on 18 Mar 2022, when Al-Ittihad FC won Al-Ittihad FC 3-0 Al-Hazm.
Al-Hazm's record when hosting Al-Ittihad FC specifically: 0W 1D 2L from 3 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 7 Meetings
0
Al-Hazm
2
Draws
5
Al-Ittihad FC
Recent Meetings
❓ Al-Hazm vs Al-Ittihad FC H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between Al-Hazm and Al-Ittihad FC?
Across the 7 head-to-head matches in our data, Al-Hazm have won 0, Al-Ittihad FC have won 5, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Al-Hazm and Al-Ittihad FC last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 24 August 2026: Al-Ittihad FC 3-2 Al-Hazm.
Who has won more matches between Al-Hazm and Al-Ittihad FC?
Al-Ittihad FC have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from the 7 head-to-head matches in our data.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Al-Hazm see a goal before the break in 40% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 33% of those situations.
Al-Ittihad FC are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 80% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 100% of those situations.
The Numbers That Matter
Both teams scoring has been the norm for this pairing lately — Al-Hazm at 60%, Al-Ittihad FC at 70%. That combined rate makes BTTS Yes a well-supported trading angle.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 70% for Al-Hazm and 50% for Al-Ittihad FC. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 40% and 40% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Al-Hazm have failed to score in 40% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Al-Hazm home games / Al-Ittihad FC away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Al-Hazm vs Al-Ittihad FC Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in Al-Hazm and Al-Ittihad FC matches?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 60% of Al-Hazm's games and 70% of Al-Ittihad FC's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Are Al-Hazm and Al-Ittihad FC matches usually high-scoring?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 70% of Al-Hazm's matches and 50% of Al-Ittihad FC's.
Do Al-Hazm and Al-Ittihad FC matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 40% of Al-Hazm's recent matches and 80% of Al-Ittihad FC's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Al-Hazm and Al-Ittihad FC share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Al-Hazm and Al-Ittihad FC finished level at 1-1 at Al-Hazem Club Stadium, Regular Season - 10, in the Pro League. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Al-Hazm 1.15 xG and Al-Ittihad FC 2.79 xG, a combined 3.93. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Al-Ittihad FC landed 1.8 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Al-Hazm attack 0.82 / defence 1.64 against Al-Ittihad FC attack 1.23 / defence 0.93, drawn from 22/56 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Al-Hazm 13% | Draw 16% | Al-Ittihad FC 71%, with Al-Ittihad FC to win its most likely call at 71%. Instead the game produced a draw, an outcome the model had rated at just 16% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 75%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 90% and landed. Over 3.5 was 55% and did not. On both teams to score, the model sat at 64% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 55% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Al-Hazm 64%, Al-Ittihad FC 46%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 57%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Al-Hazm's trading profile (22 games, 10 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 59% of their matches — today it did.
Al-Ittihad FC's trading profile (22 games, 10 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 54% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
On form, Al-Ittihad FC arrived the stronger side — 1.73 PPG against 1.09. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win. Al-Hazm (home/away splits) conceded 1 against a 2.30 average — tighter than their form line. Al-Ittihad FC (home/away splits) managed 1 against a 1.80 scoring average — below par going forward.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit), form (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.