Al-Hazm 2-0 Al-Fayha – Result & Analysis

Poisson model rates Al-Fayha at 45% — neither recent form nor the head-to-head data gives a clear steer either way as Al-Hazm face Al-Fayha.

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Analysis & Preview

Al-Fayha travel to Al-Hazem Club Stadium to take on Al-Hazm in Pro League (matchday 28). The game is scheduled for Saturday 11 April 2026 at 18:05 UK time.

Recent Form

Across their last 10 games, Al-Hazm have gone 3W 2D 5L — a 1.10 PPG return. Last five: D W L W L. They are averaging 1.00 goals per game and conceding 1.80 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.

At home, Al-Hazm have gone 5W 1D 4L in their last 10 home games (1.60 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.60 goals scored and 2.20 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 90% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture. Their home PPG of 1.60 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.10 — Al-Hazm are significantly better at home than their overall form suggests.

Al-Fayha — last 10 games: 4W 2D 4L — 1.40 PPG. Last five: L W W L D. They are scoring at 1.60 per game and conceding 1.10. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings (30%).

Al-Fayha's form when playing away from home: 2W 1D 7L across their last 10 road games (0.70 PPG). Away from home they average 1.30 goals scored and 2.10 conceded per game. Their away PPG of 0.70 is notably below their overall 1.40 — form away from home has been a clear weakness recently.

The form figures are too closely matched to derive a directional pick: Al-Hazm 1.10 PPG, Al-Fayha 1.40 PPG. Look to other data sets to build the analysis.

H2H Record

There is little to separate the sides in our head-to-head data. From 5 H2H matches, Al-Hazm have won 1, Al-Fayha 2, with 2 draws — a balanced record that offers no clear steer on its own.

Goals have been at a premium in this fixture — just 1.8 per game across the 5 H2H matches we hold, giving Under 2.5 a clear head-to-head base rate. The most recent of those, on 25 Dec 2025, ended Al-Hazm 0–0 Al-Fayha — a draw.

With a balanced win record and just 1.8 goals per game, the H2H data points toward a tight, low-scoring contest — Under 2.5 is the stronger head-to-head angle regardless of which side wins.

In-Play Data

Al-Hazm trading profile (last 27 games, 13 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 46% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 85% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 69% of those occasions; of the 7 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 43%; BTTS occurs in 69% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 69% of games (home games); they fail to score in 37% of games.

Al-Fayha trading profile (last 27 games, 13 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 77% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 71% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 57% of those occasions; of the 8 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 38%; BTTS occurs in 54% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 69% of games (away games).

BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Al-Hazm 63% versus Al-Fayha 52%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Al-Hazm 63% | Al-Fayha 52%). Note also that Al-Fayha surrender HT leads in 38% of cases while Al-Hazm recover from half-time deficits to draw or win 43% of the time — a dynamic that could influence in-play positioning.

Poisson Model

The Poisson distribution model projects Al-Hazm 1.53 xG and Al-Fayha 1.81 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Al-Hazm attack 0.884 / defence 1.307 | Al-Fayha attack 0.969 / defence 1.097. League average goals — home 1.579 / away 1.434. Al-Hazm's defence rating of 1.307 (above 1 = concedes more than average) is pushing Al-Fayha's projected output up. Data: built from Al-Hazm's last 27 games and Al-Fayha's last 62.

Result probabilities: Al-Hazm 33% | Draw 23% | Al-Fayha 45%. Fair-value odds: Al-Hazm 3.05 | Draw 4.40 | Al-Fayha 2.24. Al-Fayha hold a narrow Poisson edge at 45% — the draw (23%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.

Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 65% | BTTS Yes probability 66% | Total xG 3.35. Over 2.5 is the model's clear signal at 65% — a total xG of 3.35 means the expected score alone exceeds the 2.5 threshold, making the Over not just likely but structurally supported by both sides' attack/defence profiles. BTTS Yes at 66% — both xG figures (1.53 / 1.81) are high enough that each side is projected to find the net.

Analysis Verdict

On the Poisson output, Al-Fayha are the pick at 45% — moderate model lean. With a 23% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Al-Fayha offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 33% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.

The Poisson model projects 3.35 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 65% — mixed conviction, supported by recent form (Al-Hazm's last 10 home games and Al-Fayha's last 10 away games) averaging 3.6 goals per game — though the H2H data averaging only 1.8 goals per game across 5 H2H matches points the other way.

On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 66% on Yes. Form rates corroborate — both teams scored in: Al-Hazm 90% (last 10 home games) | Al-Fayha 50% (last 10 away games).

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