Al-Hazm 2-0 Al-Fateh – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Al-Fateh at 77% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Al-Hazm vs Al-Fateh encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
Al-Fateh make the trip to Ar-Rass Stadium to face Al-Hazm in Pro League, Regular Season - 16. The match kicks off on Thursday 7 December 2023 at 15:00 UTC.
Form
Al-Hazm (all games): 1W 3D 6L across 10 Pro League fixtures this term — 0.60 PPG. Last five: D L L L D. They are averaging 1.20 goals per game and conceding 3.00 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. However, 3.00 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches — an extremely high rate that makes BTTS Yes a well-supported standalone angle from their form alone. This season is still relatively young for Al-Hazm, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Al-Hazm's home record at Ar-Rass Stadium: 1W 1D 5L from 7 Pro League appearances (0.57 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.14 goals scored and 3.57 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 71% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Al-Fateh's overall Pro League record this term: 5W 1D 4L from 10 games (1.60 PPG). Last five: W L D L L. They are scoring at 1.80 per game and conceding 1.20. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Al-Fateh, so this record blends games from this season and last.
On the road, Al-Fateh have gone 5W 2D 3L from 10 away fixtures this term (1.70 PPG). They are averaging 1.80 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
Al-Fateh arrive in superior form — a 1.00 PPG advantage (1.60 vs 0.60) that offsets much of the home-ground benefit. The away side are the form pick, with draw protection the sensible way to manage the home-field uncertainty.
The BTTS picture is exceptionally clear (using home/away splits) — Al-Hazm register both teams scoring in 71% of relevant games, Al-Fateh in 70%. Both sides above 70% makes BTTS Yes one of the strongest standalone angles in this fixture.
H2H History
The head-to-head record is closely matched — Al-Hazm lead 1W to 1W over the last 2 encounters, with 0 draws, though neither side has established a commanding advantage.
Historically, goals have been at a premium in this fixture — just 1.0 per game from 2 meetings. The Under 2.5 has a clear base rate from the H2H record alone. The most recent clash, on 18 Feb 2022, ended 0–1 with Al-Fateh winning.
With a balanced win record and just 1.0 goals per game historically, the H2H points toward a tight, low-scoring contest. Under 2.5 goals has the strongest statistical grounding from the fixture history regardless of which side wins.
Trading Data
Al-Hazm goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (15 games, 7 at home): they score before half-time in 86% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 33% of the time; BTTS occurs in 71% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 71% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 53%.
Al-Fateh goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (15 games, 7 at away): they score before half-time in 86% of fixtures in away games; BTTS occurs in 100% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 86% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 47%.
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Al-Hazm 73% and Al-Fateh 73% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. Over 2.5 goals is well-supported by both sides' in-play profiles (Al-Hazm 67% | Al-Fateh 67%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Al-Hazm 1.17 xG and Al-Fateh 3.23 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Al-Hazm attack 0.817 / defence 1.939 | Al-Fateh attack 1.130 / defence 0.934. League average goals — home 1.531 / away 1.476. Data: 15 Al-Hazm games / 45 Al-Fateh games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Al-Hazm 10% | Draw 13% | Al-Fateh 77%. Fair-value odds: Al-Hazm 10.00 | Draw 7.69 | Al-Fateh 1.30. The model has a clear lean to Al-Fateh (77%) — a 67pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 82% | BTTS probability 66% | Total xG 4.40. Over 2.5 is the model's clear signal at 82% — a total xG of 4.40 means the expected score alone exceeds the 2.5 threshold, making the Over not just likely but structurally supported by both sides' attack/defence profiles. BTTS Yes at 66% reflects that both xG figures (1.17 / 3.23) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Al-Fateh at 77% — clear model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support.
The Poisson model projects 4.40 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 82% — reasonable confidence, supported by form averaging 4.0 goals per game.
Poisson assigns a 66% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Al-Hazm 71% | Al-Fateh 70% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Al-Hazm vs Al-Fateh | Competition: Pro League, Regular Season - 16 | Venue: Ar-Rass Stadium • Kick-off: Thursday 7 Dec 2023, 15:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Al-Hazm 10% | Draw 13% | Al-Fateh 77% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 82% | BTTS 66% | xG Al-Hazm 1.17 / Al-Fateh 3.23 • Poisson strength factors: Al-Hazm attack 0.817 / def 1.939 | Al-Fateh attack 1.130 / def 0.934 | league avg home 1.531 / away 1.476 • Poisson stance: Al-Fateh (77%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.17
Al-Hazm xG
Expected Goals
3.23
Al-Fateh xG
66%
BTTS
94%
Over 1.5
82%
Over 2.5
64%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Al-Hazm vs Al-Fateh kick off?
Al-Hazm vs Al-Fateh kicked off at 15:00 on Thursday 7 December 2023 at Ar-Rass Stadium.
What was the final score in Al-Hazm vs Al-Fateh?
Al-Hazm 2 - 0 Al-Fateh.
Where is Al-Hazm vs Al-Fateh being played?
The match is being played at Ar-Rass Stadium.
What competition is Al-Hazm vs Al-Fateh part of?
Al-Hazm vs Al-Fateh is a Regular Season - 16 fixture in the Pro League (Saudi-Arabia).
Who is favourite to win Al-Hazm vs Al-Fateh?
Our statistical model gives Al-Hazm a 10% chance of winning, Al-Fateh a 77% chance, and a 13% chance of a draw — making Al-Fateh the favourite.
Will both teams score in Al-Hazm vs Al-Fateh?
Our model estimates a 66% probability that both Al-Hazm and Al-Fateh will score (BTTS).
Will Al-Hazm vs Al-Fateh have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 82%.
What is the head-to-head record between Al-Hazm and Al-Fateh?
Record (2 meetings): Al-Hazm 1W | Draws 0 | Al-Fateh 1W.
What form are Al-Hazm and Al-Fateh in?
Al-Hazm (all comps): 1W-3D-6L in 10 | 0.60 PPG | GF 1.20 / GA 3.00 | L5 D-L-L-L-D. Al-Fateh (all comps): 5W-1D-4L in 10 | 1.60 PPG | GF 1.80 / GA 1.20 | L5 W-L-D-L-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Al-Hazm's attacking strength (0.82x league average) is weighed against Al-Fateh's defensive record (0.93x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.17. Flip it around — Al-Fateh's attack (1.13x) against Al-Hazm's defence (1.94x) — and the away total comes out at 3.23.
These ratings are built from 15/45 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-3, at 8.1%. Close behind: 1-2 (7.5%), 0-3 (6.9%). Together the top three scorelines make up 22% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Al-Fateh Win
10%
10.19
13%
7.67
77%
1.30
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 3
8.1%
Away win
Most likely
1 – 2
7.5%
Away win
0 – 3
6.9%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.17
Al-Hazm xG
Total xG
4.40
3.23
Al-Fateh xG
10.19
10%
Home win
7.67
13%
Draw
1.30
77%
Away win
Goals Markets
93%
Over 1.5
1.08
7%
Under 1.5
14.29
82%
Over 2.5
1.22
18%
Under 2.5
5.56
64%
Over 3.5
1.56
36%
Under 3.5
2.78
45%
Over 4.5
2.22
55%
Under 4.5
1.82
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
66%
BTTS Yes
1.51
34%
BTTS No
2.98
Clean Sheet
4%
25.38
31%
3.22
Win to Nil
0%
–
24%
4.17
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 1.2 | 4.0 | 6.4 | 6.9 | 5.6 | 3.6 |
| 1 | 1.4 | 4.6 | 7.5 | 8.1 | 6.5 | 4.2 |
| 2 | 0.8 | 2.7 | 4.4 | 4.7 | 3.8 | 2.5 |
| 3 | 0.3 | 1.1 | 1.7 | 1.8 | 1.5 | 1.0 |
| 4 | 0.1 | 0.3 | 0.5 | 0.5 | 0.4 | 0.3 |
| 5 | – | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Al-Hazm vs Al-Fateh?
Our Poisson model rates 1-3 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 8.1%.
How many goals are Al-Hazm and Al-Fateh expected to score?
The model projects 1.17 expected goals for Al-Hazm and 3.23 for Al-Fateh, a combined total of 4.40.
How confident is the prediction model for Al-Hazm vs Al-Fateh?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 77%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Across their last 15 outings, Al-Hazm have picked up 0.53 PPG on a 1W 5D 9L record — D-L-L-L-D across the most recent five. The sample for Al-Hazm is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Al-Fateh's form line: 7W 3D 5L from 15 games, 1.60 PPG, last five W-L-D-L-L. The sample for Al-Fateh is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Put side by side, Al-Fateh are the form team by 1.07 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against Al-Hazm.
How They Fare by Venue
On home soil, Al-Hazm have posted 0.57 PPG from 7 outings (1W 1D 5L).
On the road, Al-Fateh have gone 4W 2D 1L from 7 away games — 2.00 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Al-Fateh come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Attack vs Defence
Al-Hazm are averaging 1.00 goals scored and 2.73 conceded per game recently; Al-Fateh are on 1.93 scored and 1.47 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Al-Hazm have seen both teams score in 73% of their recent games; Al-Fateh in 73%.
Last 15 Results — Pro League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Al-Hazm
Blended
Al-Fateh
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Al-Hazm and Al-Fateh in coming into this match?
Al-Hazm have gone 1W 5D 9L in their last 15 games (0.53 PPG), while Al-Fateh have gone 7W 3D 5L in their last 15 (1.60 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Al-Hazm at home or Al-Fateh away?
Al-Fateh's away record (2.00 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Al-Hazm at home: 0.57 PPG; Al-Fateh away: 2.00 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 6 times that we have on record, stretching back to September 2021 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 4 years. Every recorded meeting has come in Pro League. They last met on 1 February 2026, roughly 6 months ago.
Notable Numbers
The last 2 meetings have all been drawn — an unusually settled recent run for this fixture.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Al-Hazm have gone 1W 1D 1L from 3 meetings on their own ground against Al-Fateh — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 6 Meetings
2
Al-Hazm
2
Draws
2
Al-Fateh
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Al-Hazm and Al-Fateh?
From 6 meetings on record, Al-Hazm have won 2, Al-Fateh have won 2, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Al-Hazm and Al-Fateh last play each other?
They last met on 1 February 2026, when Al-Fateh 1-1 Al-Hazm.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Al-Hazm are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 86% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 29% of the time.
Al-Fateh are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 86% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 57% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 14% of those situations.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS has landed consistently for both sides recently — 71% for Al-Hazm, 100% for Al-Fateh — a strong two-way scoring signal.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 71% for Al-Hazm and 86% for Al-Fateh. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 57% and 43% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Al-Hazm have failed to score in 29% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Al-Hazm home games / Al-Fateh away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Al-Hazm play Al-Fateh?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 71% of Al-Hazm's games and 100% of Al-Fateh's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Al-Hazm vs Al-Fateh usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 71% of Al-Hazm's matches and 86% of Al-Fateh's.
Do Al-Hazm and Al-Fateh tend to score early?
Al-Hazm have had a goal before half-time in 86% of their recent matches, Al-Fateh in 86% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Al-Hazm cruise to a comfortable 2-0 victory over Al-Fateh.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Al-Hazm beat Al-Fateh 2-0 at Ar-Rass Stadium, Regular Season - 16, in the Pro League. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Al-Hazm 1.17 xG and Al-Fateh 3.23 xG, a combined 4.40. The scoreboard read 2-0 for 2 actual goals. Al-Hazm beat their projection by 0.8 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Al-Fateh landed 3.2 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Al-Hazm attack 0.82 / defence 1.94 against Al-Fateh attack 1.13 / defence 0.93, drawn from 15/45 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Al-Hazm 10% | Draw 13% | Al-Fateh 77%, with Al-Fateh to win its most likely call at 77%. Instead the game produced a Al-Hazm win, an outcome the model had rated at just 10% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 82%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 94% and landed. Over 3.5 was 64% and did not. On both teams to score, the model sat at 66% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 67% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Al-Hazm 67%, Al-Fateh 67%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 73%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Al-Hazm's trading profile (15 games, 7 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 73% of their matches — today it did not.
Al-Fateh's trading profile (15 games, 7 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 73% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 27% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
On form, Al-Fateh arrived the stronger side — 1.60 PPG against 0.53. Form was overturned, with Al-Hazm winning despite arriving in poorer recent shape. Al-Hazm (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 1.14 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 0 against a 3.57 average — tighter than their form line. Al-Fateh (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 2.00 scoring average — below par going forward.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.