Al Riyadh 0-0 Al-Hazm – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Al Riyadh at 44% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Al Riyadh vs Al-Hazm encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
Al-Hazm make the trip to Prince Faisal bin Fahd Stadium to face Al Riyadh in Pro League, Regular Season - 15. The match kicks off on Thursday 30 November 2023 at 15:00 UTC.
Form
Al Riyadh (all games): 3W 2D 5L across 10 Pro League fixtures this term — 1.10 PPG. Last five: W L L D W. They are averaging 1.10 goals per game and conceding 2.00 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. However, 2.00 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Al Riyadh, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Al Riyadh's home record at Prince Faisal bin Fahd Stadium: 2W 2D 3L from 7 Pro League appearances (1.14 PPG). At home they are averaging 0.86 goals scored and 1.57 conceded per game.
Al-Hazm's overall Pro League record this term: 1W 2D 7L from 10 games (0.50 PPG). Last five: W D L L L. Their scoring rate of 1.30 per game is modest, conceding 3.50 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Conceding 3.50 per game is a high rate — their defensive vulnerabilities have been exposed regularly this season. Both teams have scored in 90% of their matches this season — one of the stronger BTTS rates in the division, making Yes a well-evidenced play. This season is still relatively young for Al-Hazm, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Al-Hazm's form when playing away from home: 0W 3D 4L across 7 road games this term (0.43 PPG). Away from home they average 1.00 goals scored and 2.29 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 86% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
The points-per-game gap of 0.60 in Al Riyadh's favour (1.10 vs 0.50) is a statistically meaningful difference. The hosts are the form pick here, with draw protection the sensible hedge given the away side's competitiveness.
Trading Data
Al Riyadh goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (14 games, 7 at home): they score before half-time in 86% of fixtures in home games; BTTS occurs in 43% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 43% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 43%.
Al-Hazm goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (14 games, 7 at away): they score before half-time in 86% of fixtures in away games; BTTS occurs in 86% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 71% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 57%.
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Al Riyadh 50% and Al-Hazm 79% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. Over 2.5 goals is well-supported by both sides' in-play profiles (Al Riyadh 64% | Al-Hazm 71%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Al Riyadh 1.64 xG and Al-Hazm 1.31 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Al Riyadh attack 0.751 / defence 1.124 | Al-Hazm attack 0.816 / defence 1.407. League average goals — home 1.550 / away 1.432. Al Riyadh's attack strength of 0.751 is below the league average — the 1.64 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Al-Hazm bring a strong defensive rating of 1.407 — this is suppressing Al Riyadh's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 14 Al Riyadh games / 14 Al-Hazm games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Al Riyadh 44% | Draw 26% | Al-Hazm 30%. Fair-value odds: Al Riyadh 2.27 | Draw 3.85 | Al-Hazm 3.33. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 26% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 57% | BTTS probability 60% | Total xG 2.95. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 57% — the 2.95 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 60% reflects that both xG figures (1.64 / 1.31) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates Al Riyadh as the most likely outcome at 44% — marginal model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw probability of 26% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Al Riyadh if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 30% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 2.95 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 57% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by form averaging 2.9 goals per game.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 60% on Yes. Form rates corroborate: Al Riyadh 43% | Al-Hazm 86% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Al Riyadh vs Al-Hazm | Competition: Pro League, Regular Season - 15 | Venue: Prince Faisal bin Fahd Stadium • Kick-off: Thursday 30 Nov 2023, 15:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Al Riyadh 44% | Draw 26% | Al-Hazm 30% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 57% | BTTS 60% | xG Al Riyadh 1.64 / Al-Hazm 1.31 • Poisson strength factors: Al Riyadh attack 0.751 / def 1.124 | Al-Hazm attack 0.816 / def 1.407 | league avg home 1.550 / away 1.432 • Poisson stance: Al Riyadh (44%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.64
Al Riyadh xG
Expected Goals
1.31
Al-Hazm xG
60%
BTTS
80%
Over 1.5
57%
Over 2.5
34%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Al Riyadh vs Al-Hazm kick off?
Al Riyadh vs Al-Hazm kicked off at 15:00 on Thursday 30 November 2023 at Prince Faisal bin Fahd Stadium.
What was the final score in Al Riyadh vs Al-Hazm?
Al Riyadh 0 - 0 Al-Hazm.
Where is Al Riyadh vs Al-Hazm being played?
The match is being played at Prince Faisal bin Fahd Stadium.
What competition is Al Riyadh vs Al-Hazm part of?
Al Riyadh vs Al-Hazm is a Regular Season - 15 fixture in the Pro League (Saudi-Arabia).
Who is favourite to win Al Riyadh vs Al-Hazm?
Our statistical model gives Al Riyadh a 44% chance of winning, Al-Hazm a 30% chance, and a 26% chance of a draw — making Al Riyadh the favourite.
Will both teams score in Al Riyadh vs Al-Hazm?
Our model estimates a 60% probability that both Al Riyadh and Al-Hazm will score (BTTS).
Will Al Riyadh vs Al-Hazm have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 57%.
What is the head-to-head record between Al Riyadh and Al-Hazm?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Al Riyadh and Al-Hazm in?
Al Riyadh (all comps): 3W-2D-5L in 10 | 1.10 PPG | GF 1.10 / GA 2.00 | L5 W-L-L-D-W. Al-Hazm (all comps): 1W-2D-7L in 10 | 0.50 PPG | GF 1.30 / GA 3.50 | L5 W-D-L-L-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Working from Al Riyadh's attack rating (0.75) and Al-Hazm's defence rating (1.41), the model arrives at 1.64 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — Al-Hazm's attack (0.82x) against Al Riyadh's defence (1.12x) — and the away total comes out at 1.31.
These ratings are built from 14/14 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 12.7%. Close behind: 2-1 (9.2%), 1-2 (7.4%). Together the top three scorelines make up 29% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Al Riyadh Win
44%
2.26
26%
3.87
30%
3.35
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.2%
Draw
Most likely
2 – 1
9.2%
Home win
1 – 0
8.6%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.64
Al Riyadh xG
Total xG
2.95
1.31
Al-Hazm xG
2.26
44%
Home win
3.87
26%
Draw
3.35
30%
Away win
Goals Markets
79%
Over 1.5
1.27
21%
Under 1.5
4.76
57%
Over 2.5
1.75
43%
Under 2.5
2.33
34%
Over 3.5
2.94
66%
Under 3.5
1.52
18%
Over 4.5
5.56
82%
Under 4.5
1.22
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
60%
BTTS Yes
1.67
40%
BTTS No
2.48
Clean Sheet
27%
3.72
19%
5.15
Win to Nil
12%
8.40
6%
17.23
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.2 | 6.9 | 4.5 | 2.0 | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 8.6 | 11.2 | 7.4 | 3.2 | 1.1 | 0.3 |
| 2 | 7.0 | 9.2 | 6.0 | 2.6 | 0.9 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 3.8 | 5.0 | 3.3 | 1.4 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.6 | 2.1 | 1.4 | 0.6 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.5 | 0.7 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Al Riyadh vs Al-Hazm?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.7%.
How many goals are Al Riyadh and Al-Hazm expected to score?
The model projects 1.64 expected goals for Al Riyadh and 1.31 for Al-Hazm, a combined total of 2.95.
How confident is the prediction model for Al Riyadh vs Al-Hazm?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 44%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Al Riyadh's recent record stands at 4W 3D 7L from 14 games, a 1.07 PPG return, with W-L-L-D-W in the last five. The sample for Al Riyadh is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Al-Hazm, meanwhile, have gone 1W 4D 9L across 14 games — 0.50 PPG, with W-D-L-L-L in their last five. The sample for Al-Hazm is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
The points-per-game comparison favours Al Riyadh by 0.57 — a real, if not enormous, edge over Al-Hazm heading into this one.
How They Fare by Venue
At home specifically, Al Riyadh have managed 2W 2D 3L from 7 games — 1.14 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Al-Hazm's away record stands at 0W 3D 4L across 7 trips, a 0.43 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Al Riyadh come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Attack vs Defence
Al Riyadh are averaging 1.00 goals scored and 2.07 conceded per game recently; Al-Hazm are on 1.07 scored and 2.93 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Al-Hazm in 79%.
Last 14 Results — Pro League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Al Riyadh
Blended
Al-Hazm
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Al Riyadh and Al-Hazm in coming into this match?
Al Riyadh have gone 4W 3D 7L in their last 14 games (1.07 PPG), while Al-Hazm have gone 1W 4D 9L in their last 14 (0.50 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Al Riyadh at home or Al-Hazm away?
Al Riyadh's home record (1.14 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Al Riyadh at home: 1.14 PPG; Al-Hazm away: 0.43 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 4 times that we have on record, stretching back to November 2023 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 2 years. Every recorded meeting has come in Pro League. They last met on 24 April 2026, roughly 3 months ago.
Notable Numbers
There's a clear current trend here: Al-Hazm have taken the last 2 head-to-head results.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Al Riyadh have gone 0W 1D 1L from 2 meetings on their own ground against Al-Hazm — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 4 Meetings
0
Al Riyadh
2
Draws
2
Al-Hazm
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Al Riyadh and Al-Hazm?
From 4 meetings on record, Al Riyadh have won 0, Al-Hazm have won 2, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Al Riyadh and Al-Hazm last play each other?
They last met on 24 April 2026, when Al-Hazm 2-1 Al Riyadh.
Who has won more matches between Al Riyadh and Al-Hazm?
Al-Hazm have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from 4 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Al Riyadh are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 86% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 43% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 14% of those situations.
Al-Hazm are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 86% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 29% of those situations.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Al Riyadh 43%, Al-Hazm 86% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 43% (Al Riyadh) and 71% (Al-Hazm). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 43% and 57% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Al Riyadh have failed to score in 29% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Al Riyadh home games / Al-Hazm away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Al Riyadh play Al-Hazm?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 43% of Al Riyadh's games and 86% of Al-Hazm's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Al Riyadh vs Al-Hazm usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 43% of Al Riyadh's matches and 71% of Al-Hazm's.
Do Al Riyadh and Al-Hazm tend to score early?
Al Riyadh have had a goal before half-time in 86% of their recent matches, Al-Hazm in 86% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Stalemate at Al Riyadh's ground as both sides cancel each other out in a goalless draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at Prince Faisal bin Fahd Stadium, Regular Season - 15, as Al Riyadh and Al-Hazm drew 0-0 in the Pro League. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Al Riyadh 1.64 xG and Al-Hazm 1.31 xG, a combined 2.95. The scoreboard read 0-0 for 0 actual goals. Al Riyadh fell 1.6 short of their projected output. Al-Hazm landed 1.3 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Al Riyadh attack 0.75 / defence 1.12 against Al-Hazm attack 0.82 / defence 1.41, drawn from 14/14 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Al Riyadh 44% | Draw 26% | Al-Hazm 30%, with Al Riyadh to win its most likely call at 44%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 26%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 57%. The game delivered 0, so it stayed under — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 80% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 60% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 68% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Al Riyadh 64%, Al-Hazm 71%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 64%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Al Riyadh's trading profile (14 games, 7 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 29% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Al-Hazm's trading profile (14 games, 7 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 79% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
On form, Al Riyadh arrived the stronger side — 1.07 PPG against 0.50. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win. Al Riyadh (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 0.86 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.57 average — tighter than their form line. Al-Hazm (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.00 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 2.29 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.