Al Wehda Club 2-0 Al Okhdood – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Al Wehda Club at 60% — neither recent form nor the head-to-head data gives a clear steer either way as Al Wehda Club face Al Okhdood.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
Al Okhdood make the trip to King Abdulaziz Sports City Stadium to face Al Wehda Club in Pro League (matchday 16). The match kicks off on Saturday 9 December 2023 at 18:00 UK time.
Form
Al Wehda Club (all games): 4W 1D 5L across their last 10 — 1.30 PPG. Last five: L W L W L. Offensively they are averaging 1.90 goals per game, with 2.10 conceded. However, 2.10 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings (10%). Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches — an extremely high rate that makes BTTS Yes a well-supported standalone angle from their form alone.
At home, Al Wehda Club have gone 4W 1D 5L in their last 10 home games (1.30 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.90 goals scored and 1.90 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Al Okhdood have collected 0.90 PPG across their last 10 games: 3W 0D 7L. Last five: L L W L W. Their scoring rate of 0.80 per game is modest, conceding 1.70 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings (10%).
Al Okhdood away from home: 2W 1D 4L from their last 7 away games — 1.00 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 0.86 goals scored and 1.57 conceded per game.
Both sides are running at similar form levels — 1.30 PPG for Al Wehda Club against 0.90 for Al Okhdood. There is no clear form edge to exploit here; other signals need to take the lead.
Trading Data
Al Wehda Club goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (last 15 games, 7 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 86% of their matches in home games; of the 7 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 29%; BTTS occurs in 71% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 86% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 60%.
Al Okhdood goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (last 15 games, 7 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 57% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; BTTS occurs in 43% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 43% of games (away games); they fail to score in 47% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Al Wehda Club 67% versus Al Okhdood 40%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Al Wehda Club 80% | Al Okhdood 47%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Al Wehda Club 2.19 xG and Al Okhdood 1.19 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Al Wehda Club attack 1.202 / defence 1.185 | Al Okhdood attack 0.711 / defence 1.163. League average goals — home 1.570 / away 1.407. Al Okhdood's attack rating of 0.711 is below the league average, which holds their xG down at 1.19. Data: built from Al Wehda Club's last 45 games and Al Okhdood's last 15.
Result probabilities: Al Wehda Club 60% | Draw 21% | Al Okhdood 19%. Fair-value odds: Al Wehda Club 1.68 | Draw 4.67 | Al Okhdood 5.26. The model has a clear lean to Al Wehda Club (60%) — a 39pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 66% | BTTS Yes probability 62% | Total xG 3.38. Over 2.5 is the model's clear signal at 66% — a total xG of 3.38 means the expected score alone exceeds the 2.5 threshold, making the Over not just likely but structurally supported by both sides' attack/defence profiles. BTTS Yes at 62% — both xG figures (2.19 / 1.19) are high enough that each side is projected to find the net.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, Al Wehda Club are the pick at 60% — clear model lean. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 21% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
On the goals line, Poisson's 3.38 combined xG gives a 66% probability to Over 2.5 — reasonable conviction, supported by recent form (Al Wehda Club's last 10 home games and Al Okhdood's last 7 away games) averaging 3.1 goals per game.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 62%. Form rates corroborate — both teams scored in: Al Wehda Club 70% (last 10 home games) | Al Okhdood 43% (last 7 away games).
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Al Wehda Club vs Al Okhdood | Competition: Pro League, matchday 16 | Venue: King Abdulaziz Sports City Stadium • Kick-off: Saturday 9 December 2023 at 18:00 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Al Wehda Club 60% | Draw 21% | Al Okhdood 19% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 66% (Under 34%) | BTTS Yes 62% (No 38%) | xG Al Wehda Club 2.19 / Al Okhdood 1.19 • Poisson strength factors: Al Wehda Club attack 1.202 / def 1.185 | Al Okhdood attack 0.711 / def 1.163 | league avg home 1.570 / away 1.407 • Poisson stance: Al Wehda Club (60%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
2.19
Al Wehda Club xG
Expected Goals
1.19
Al Okhdood xG
62%
BTTS
86%
Over 1.5
66%
Over 2.5
44%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Al Wehda Club vs Al Okhdood FAQs
What time does Al Wehda Club vs Al Okhdood kick off?
Al Wehda Club vs Al Okhdood kicked off at 18:00 UK time on Saturday 9 December 2023 at King Abdulaziz Sports City Stadium.
What was the final score in Al Wehda Club vs Al Okhdood?
Al Wehda Club 2 - 0 Al Okhdood.
Where is Al Wehda Club vs Al Okhdood being played?
The match is being played at King Abdulaziz Sports City Stadium.
What competition is Al Wehda Club vs Al Okhdood part of?
Al Wehda Club vs Al Okhdood is a Pro League fixture (matchday 16) (Saudi-Arabia).
Who is favourite to win Al Wehda Club vs Al Okhdood?
Our statistical model gives Al Wehda Club a 60% chance of winning, Al Okhdood a 19% chance, and a 21% chance of a draw — making Al Wehda Club the favourite.
Will both teams score in Al Wehda Club vs Al Okhdood?
Our model estimates a 62% probability that both Al Wehda Club and Al Okhdood will score, so it leans towards BTTS Yes.
Will Al Wehda Club vs Al Okhdood have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 66%, so it leans towards over 2.5 goals.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Al Wehda Club's attacking strength (1.20x league average) is weighed against Al Okhdood's defensive record (1.16x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 2.19. Flip it around — Al Okhdood's attack (0.71x) against Al Wehda Club's defence (1.19x) — and the away total comes out at 1.19.
These ratings are built from Al Wehda Club's last 45 games and Al Okhdood's last 15 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 10.0%. Close behind: 2-1 (9.7%), 2-0 (8.2%). Together the top three scorelines make up 28% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Al Wehda Club Win
60%
1.68
21%
4.67
19%
5.26
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
2 – 1
9.7%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
8.9%
Draw
2 – 0
8.2%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
2.19
Al Wehda Club xG
Total xG
3.38
1.19
Al Okhdood xG
1.68
60%
Home win
4.67
21%
Draw
5.26
19%
Away win
Goals Markets
85%
Over 1.5
1.18
15%
Under 1.5
6.67
66%
Over 2.5
1.52
34%
Under 2.5
2.94
44%
Over 3.5
2.27
56%
Under 3.5
1.79
25%
Over 4.5
4.00
75%
Under 4.5
1.33
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
62%
BTTS Yes
1.60
38%
BTTS No
2.66
Clean Sheet
31%
3.27
11%
8.98
Win to Nil
18%
5.49
2%
47.26
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 3.4 | 4.0 | 2.4 | 0.9 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 7.5 | 8.9 | 5.2 | 2.1 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 8.2 | 9.7 | 5.8 | 2.3 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 6.0 | 7.1 | 4.2 | 1.7 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 3.3 | 3.9 | 2.3 | 0.9 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 1.4 | 1.7 | 1.0 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Al Wehda Club vs Al Okhdood Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for Al Wehda Club vs Al Okhdood?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 10.0%.
How many goals are Al Wehda Club and Al Okhdood expected to score?
The model projects 2.19 expected goals for Al Wehda Club and 1.19 for Al Okhdood, a combined total of 3.38.
How confident is the prediction model for Al Wehda Club vs Al Okhdood?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 60%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Across their last 15 outings, Al Wehda Club have picked up 1.27 PPG on a 6W 1D 8L record — L-W-L-W-L across the most recent five.
Al Okhdood's form line: 4W 1D 10L from 15 games, 0.87 PPG, last five L-L-W-L-W.
Put side by side, Al Wehda Club are the form team by 0.40 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against Al Okhdood.
Home & Away Splits
On home soil, Al Wehda Club have posted 1.43 PPG from their last 7 home games (3W 1D 3L).
On the road, Al Okhdood have gone 2W 1D 4L from their last 7 away games — 1.00 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Al Wehda Club come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Al Wehda Club are averaging 1.73 goals scored and 2.00 conceded per game recently; Al Okhdood are on 0.73 scored and 1.53 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Al Wehda Club have seen both teams score in 67% of their recent games.
Last 15 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Al Wehda Club
Blended
Al Okhdood
Blended
Al Wehda Club (Home) vs Al Okhdood (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
Al Wehda Club
Blended
Al Okhdood
Blended
❓ Al Wehda Club vs Al Okhdood Form FAQs
What form are Al Wehda Club and Al Okhdood in coming into this match?
Al Wehda Club have gone 6W 1D 8L in their last 15 games (1.27 PPG), while Al Okhdood have gone 4W 1D 10L in their last 15 (0.87 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Al Wehda Club at home or Al Okhdood away?
Al Wehda Club's home record (1.43 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Al Wehda Club at home: 1.43 PPG; Al Okhdood away: 1.00 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
We have 4 H2H matches between these sides on record, dating back to December 2023 — a small sample, so read the trends with care. All of them came in Pro League. The most recent in our data was on 1 May 2025, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Records & Recent Trends
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Al Wehda Club have gone 1W 0D 1L from the 2 H2H matches in our data played on their own ground against Al Okhdood — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 4 Meetings
2
Al Wehda Club
1
Draws
1
Al Okhdood
Recent Meetings
❓ Al Wehda Club vs Al Okhdood H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between Al Wehda Club and Al Okhdood?
Across the 4 head-to-head matches in our data, Al Wehda Club have won 2, Al Okhdood have won 1, and 1 has been drawn.
When did Al Wehda Club and Al Okhdood last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 1 May 2025: Al Okhdood 1-2 Al Wehda Club.
Who has won more matches between Al Wehda Club and Al Okhdood?
Al Wehda Club have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from the 4 head-to-head matches in our data.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Al Wehda Club are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 86% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 29% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 50% of those situations.
Al Okhdood see a goal before the break in 57% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 29% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 100% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Al Wehda Club 71%, Al Okhdood 43% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 86% for Al Wehda Club and 43% for Al Okhdood. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 71% and 14% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Al Okhdood in 43%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Al Wehda Club home games / Al Okhdood away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Al Wehda Club vs Al Okhdood Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in Al Wehda Club and Al Okhdood matches?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 71% of Al Wehda Club's games and 43% of Al Okhdood's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Are Al Wehda Club and Al Okhdood matches usually high-scoring?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 86% of Al Wehda Club's matches and 43% of Al Okhdood's.
Do Al Wehda Club and Al Okhdood matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 86% of Al Wehda Club's recent matches and 57% of Al Okhdood's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Al Wehda Club cruise to a comfortable 2-0 victory over Al Okhdood.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Al Wehda Club beat Al Okhdood 2-0 at King Abdulaziz Sports City Stadium, Regular Season - 16, in the Pro League. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Al Wehda Club 2.19 xG and Al Okhdood 1.19 xG, a combined 3.38. The scoreboard read 2-0 for 2 actual goals. Al Okhdood landed 1.2 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Al Wehda Club attack 1.20 / defence 1.19 against Al Okhdood attack 0.71 / defence 1.16, drawn from 45/15 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Al Wehda Club 60% | Draw 21% | Al Okhdood 19%, with Al Wehda Club to win its most likely call at 60%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 66%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 86% and landed. Over 3.5 was 44% and did not. On both teams to score, the model sat at 62% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 63% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Al Wehda Club 80%, Al Okhdood 47%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 53%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Al Wehda Club's trading profile (15 games, 7 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 67% of their matches — today it did not.
Al Okhdood's trading profile (15 games, 7 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 40% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 47% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
On form, Al Wehda Club arrived the stronger side — 1.27 PPG against 0.87. That form edge translated into the three points. Al Wehda Club (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.86 average — tighter than their form line. Al Okhdood (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 0.86 scoring average — below par going forward.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (hit). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.