Al-Ahli Jeddah 0-0 Al-Raed – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Al-Ahli Jeddah at 53% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Al-Ahli Jeddah vs Al-Raed encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
King Fahd Sport City Stadium plays host to Al-Ahli Jeddah versus Al-Raed in Pro League, Regular Season - 16. Kick-off: Saturday 9 December 2023 at 15:00 UTC.
Form & Momentum
Al-Ahli Jeddah have collected 1.80 PPG across 10 Pro League outings this season: 5W 3D 2L. Last five: L W D D W. They are averaging 2.20 goals per game — a high-scoring output that makes them a genuine attacking threat in any fixture. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is a standout defensive return — they are keeping their net clean in more than half their matches. This season is still relatively young for Al-Ahli Jeddah, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Al-Ahli Jeddah's home record at King Fahd Sport City Stadium: 6W 2D 0L from 8 Pro League appearances (2.50 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.88 goals scored and 0.50 conceded per game. 5 clean sheets from 8 home games (62%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at King Fahd Sport City Stadium. Their home PPG of 2.50 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.80 — Al-Ahli Jeddah are significantly better at King Fahd Sport City Stadium than their overall form suggests.
Al-Raed (all games): 2W 2D 6L across 10 Pro League outings this term — 0.80 points per game. Last five: L D W L W. Their scoring rate of 1.40 per game is modest, conceding 1.80 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Al-Raed, so this record blends games from this season and last.
When travelling in Pro League this season, Al-Raed have posted 0W 4D 6L from 10 away outings — 0.40 PPG. Away from home they average 1.10 goals scored and 1.70 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
The points-per-game gap of 1.00 in Al-Ahli Jeddah's favour (1.80 vs 0.80) is a statistically meaningful difference. The hosts are the form pick here, with draw protection the sensible hedge given the away side's competitiveness.
H2H History
Form and model data should carry more weight here — the historical record is too balanced to provide a directional steer. From 2 meetings: Al-Ahli Jeddah 0W, Al-Raed 2W, 0D.
The 2 previous meetings have averaged 2.5 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 23 Jun 2022, ended 1–3 with Al-Raed winning.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
Trading
Al-Ahli Jeddah half-time and goal-timing data (15 games, 7 at home): they score before half-time in 57% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 33% of the time; they lead at the break 60% of the time; BTTS occurs in 29% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 43% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 60%; they keep a clean sheet 47% of the time.
Al-Raed half-time and goal-timing data (15 games, 7 at away): they score before half-time in 43% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 40% of the time; BTTS occurs in 43% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 43% of games (away games); they fail to score in 40% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Al-Ahli Jeddah 53% versus Al-Raed 47%; no strong lean in either direction. Over 2.5 goals is well-supported by both sides' in-play profiles (Al-Ahli Jeddah 67% | Al-Raed 67%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Al-Ahli Jeddah 1.66 xG and Al-Raed 0.96 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Al-Ahli Jeddah attack 0.942 / defence 0.776 | Al-Raed attack 0.871 / defence 1.113. League average goals — home 1.586 / away 1.417. Al-Ahli Jeddah's defence rating of 0.776 is below average — the home backline is amplifying the visitor's projected output. Data: 15 Al-Ahli Jeddah games / 45 Al-Raed games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Al-Ahli Jeddah 53% | Draw 26% | Al-Raed 21%. Fair-value odds: Al-Ahli Jeddah 1.89 | Draw 3.85 | Al-Raed 4.76. Al-Ahli Jeddah hold a narrow Poisson edge at 53% — the draw (26%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 49% | BTTS probability 51% | Total xG 2.62. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 49%/51% — the total xG of 2.62 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 51% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Al-Ahli Jeddah at 53% — moderate model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw probability of 26% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Al-Ahli Jeddah if the outright odds are short.
Poisson projects 2.62 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 49% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 51% on Yes. Form rates are neutral: Al-Ahli Jeddah 38% | Al-Raed 60%.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Al-Ahli Jeddah vs Al-Raed | Competition: Pro League, Regular Season - 16 | Venue: King Fahd Sport City Stadium • Kick-off: Saturday 9 Dec 2023, 15:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Al-Ahli Jeddah 53% | Draw 26% | Al-Raed 21% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 49% | BTTS 51% | xG Al-Ahli Jeddah 1.66 / Al-Raed 0.96 • Poisson strength factors: Al-Ahli Jeddah attack 0.942 / def 0.776 | Al-Raed attack 0.871 / def 1.113 | league avg home 1.586 / away 1.417 • Poisson stance: Al-Ahli Jeddah (53%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.66
Al-Ahli Jeddah xG
Expected Goals
0.96
Al-Raed xG
51%
BTTS
74%
Over 1.5
49%
Over 2.5
27%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Al-Ahli Jeddah vs Al-Raed kick off?
Al-Ahli Jeddah vs Al-Raed kicked off at 15:00 on Saturday 9 December 2023 at King Fahd Sport City Stadium.
What was the final score in Al-Ahli Jeddah vs Al-Raed?
Al-Ahli Jeddah 0 - 0 Al-Raed.
Where is Al-Ahli Jeddah vs Al-Raed being played?
The match is being played at King Fahd Sport City Stadium.
What competition is Al-Ahli Jeddah vs Al-Raed part of?
Al-Ahli Jeddah vs Al-Raed is a Regular Season - 16 fixture in the Pro League (Saudi-Arabia).
Who is favourite to win Al-Ahli Jeddah vs Al-Raed?
Our statistical model gives Al-Ahli Jeddah a 53% chance of winning, Al-Raed a 21% chance, and a 26% chance of a draw — making Al-Ahli Jeddah the favourite.
Will both teams score in Al-Ahli Jeddah vs Al-Raed?
Our model estimates a 51% probability that both Al-Ahli Jeddah and Al-Raed will score (BTTS).
Will Al-Ahli Jeddah vs Al-Raed have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 49%.
What is the head-to-head record between Al-Ahli Jeddah and Al-Raed?
Record (2 meetings): Al-Ahli Jeddah 0W | Draws 0 | Al-Raed 2W.
What form are Al-Ahli Jeddah and Al-Raed in?
Al-Ahli Jeddah (all comps): 5W-3D-2L in 10 | 1.80 PPG | GF 2.20 / GA 1.20 | L5 L-W-D-D-W. Al-Raed (all comps): 2W-2D-6L in 10 | 0.80 PPG | GF 1.40 / GA 1.80 | L5 L-D-W-L-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
The model rates Al-Ahli Jeddah's attack at 0.94x the league average against Al-Raed's defence at 1.11x — combine the two and it projects 1.66 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — Al-Raed's attack (0.87x) against Al-Ahli Jeddah's defence (0.78x) — and the away total comes out at 0.96.
These ratings are built from 15/45 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 13.1% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-0 (10.6%), 2-0 (10.1%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 34% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Al-Ahli Jeddah Win
53%
1.88
26%
3.84
21%
4.78
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
12.1%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
11.6%
Draw
2 – 0
10.1%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.66
Al-Ahli Jeddah xG
Total xG
2.62
0.96
Al-Raed xG
1.88
53%
Home win
3.84
26%
Draw
4.78
21%
Away win
Goals Markets
74%
Over 1.5
1.35
26%
Under 1.5
3.85
49%
Over 2.5
2.04
51%
Under 2.5
1.96
27%
Over 3.5
3.70
73%
Under 3.5
1.37
13%
Over 4.5
7.69
87%
Under 4.5
1.15
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
51%
BTTS Yes
1.97
49%
BTTS No
2.03
Clean Sheet
38%
2.61
19%
5.28
Win to Nil
20%
4.91
4%
25.24
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7.3 | 7.0 | 3.3 | 1.1 | 0.3 | – |
| 1 | 12.1 | 11.6 | 5.6 | 1.8 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 10.1 | 9.6 | 4.6 | 1.5 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 5.6 | 5.3 | 2.6 | 0.8 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 2.3 | 2.2 | 1.1 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.8 | 0.7 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Al-Ahli Jeddah vs Al-Raed?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.1%.
How many goals are Al-Ahli Jeddah and Al-Raed expected to score?
The model projects 1.66 expected goals for Al-Ahli Jeddah and 0.96 for Al-Raed, a combined total of 2.62.
How confident is the prediction model for Al-Ahli Jeddah vs Al-Raed?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 53%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Al-Ahli Jeddah come into this having played 15 games, going 9W 3D 3L for 2.00 points per game. Their last five reads L-W-D-D-W. The sample for Al-Ahli Jeddah is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Al-Raed sit at 0.80 PPG from 15 outings (3W 3D 9L), a run that reads L-D-W-L-W across their last five. The sample for Al-Raed is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Al-Ahli Jeddah carry the stronger recent form of the two, 1.20 PPG clear of Al-Raed — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
How They Fare by Venue
Al-Ahli Jeddah's home form reads 5W 2D 0L across 7 games on their own ground, a 2.43 PPG return. That's noticeably better than their 2.00 PPG overall — Al-Ahli Jeddah are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
Away from home, Al-Raed have taken 0.43 points per game from 7 outings (0W 3D 4L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Al-Ahli Jeddah come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Attack vs Defence
Al-Ahli Jeddah are averaging 2.13 goals scored and 1.27 conceded per game recently; Al-Raed are on 1.13 scored and 1.73 conceded.
Defensively: Al-Ahli Jeddah have kept a clean sheet in 47% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 15 Results — Pro League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Al-Ahli Jeddah
Blended
Al-Raed
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Al-Ahli Jeddah and Al-Raed in coming into this match?
Al-Ahli Jeddah have gone 9W 3D 3L in their last 15 games (2.00 PPG), while Al-Raed have gone 3W 3D 9L in their last 15 (0.80 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Al-Ahli Jeddah at home or Al-Raed away?
Al-Ahli Jeddah's home record (2.43 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Al-Ahli Jeddah at home: 2.43 PPG; Al-Raed away: 0.43 PPG.
Have Al-Ahli Jeddah or Al-Raed been keeping clean sheets recently?
Al-Ahli Jeddah have kept a clean sheet in 47% of their recent games, Al-Raed in 33%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 6 times that we have on record, stretching back to December 2021 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 3 years. Every recorded meeting has come in Pro League. It has been a while since the last meeting — 11 April 2025, some 3 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Notable Numbers
Al-Ahli Jeddah go into this on the back of 2 straight wins in the series — the current momentum sits squarely with them.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Al-Ahli Jeddah have gone 1W 1D 1L from 3 meetings on their own ground against Al-Raed — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 6 Meetings
2
Al-Ahli Jeddah
2
Draws
2
Al-Raed
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Al-Ahli Jeddah and Al-Raed?
From 6 meetings on record, Al-Ahli Jeddah have won 2, Al-Raed have won 2, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Al-Ahli Jeddah and Al-Raed last play each other?
They last met on 11 April 2025, when Al-Raed 0-2 Al-Ahli Jeddah.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Al-Ahli Jeddah see a goal before the break in 57% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 57% of the time.
Al-Raed see a goal before the break in 43% of their matches.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Al-Ahli Jeddah 29%, Al-Raed 43% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 43% (Al-Ahli Jeddah) and 43% (Al-Raed).
On the defensive side: Al-Ahli Jeddah keep a clean sheet in 71% of their matches; Al-Raed in 43%; Al-Ahli Jeddah have failed to score in 29% of games; Al-Raed in 57%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Al-Ahli Jeddah home games / Al-Raed away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Al-Ahli Jeddah play Al-Raed?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 29% of Al-Ahli Jeddah's recent matches and 43% of Al-Raed's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Al-Ahli Jeddah vs Al-Raed usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 43% of Al-Ahli Jeddah's recent games and 43% of Al-Raed's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Stalemate at Al-Ahli Jeddah's ground as both sides cancel each other out in a goalless draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at King Fahd Sport City Stadium, Regular Season - 16, as Al-Ahli Jeddah and Al-Raed drew 0-0 in the Pro League. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Al-Ahli Jeddah 1.66 xG and Al-Raed 0.96 xG, a combined 2.62. The scoreboard read 0-0 for 0 actual goals. Al-Ahli Jeddah fell 1.7 short of their projected output. Al-Raed landed 1.0 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Al-Ahli Jeddah attack 0.94 / defence 0.78 against Al-Raed attack 0.87 / defence 1.11, drawn from 15/45 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Al-Ahli Jeddah 53% | Draw 26% | Al-Raed 21%, with Al-Ahli Jeddah to win its most likely call at 53%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 26%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 49%. The game delivered 0, so it stayed under — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 74% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 51% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 67% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Al-Ahli Jeddah 67%, Al-Raed 67%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 50%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Al-Ahli Jeddah's trading profile (15 games, 7 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 53% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 47% of the time, and duly kept one.
Al-Raed's trading profile (15 games, 7 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 47% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 33% of the time, and duly kept one; they fail to score in 40% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
On form, Al-Ahli Jeddah arrived the stronger side — 2.00 PPG against 0.80. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win. Al-Ahli Jeddah (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.71 scoring average — below par going forward. Al-Raed (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.00 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.57 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss), form (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.