Al-Ahli Jeddah 0-0 Al-Raed – Result & Analysis

Poisson rates Al-Ahli Jeddah at 53% — recent form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Al-Ahli Jeddah vs Al-Raed encounter.

✍️ Match Preview

Full Analysis

King Fahd Sport City Stadium plays host to Al-Ahli Jeddah versus Al-Raed in Pro League (matchday 16). Kick-off: Saturday 9 December 2023 at 15:00 UK time.

Form & Momentum

Al-Ahli Jeddah have collected 1.80 PPG across their last 10 games: 5W 3D 2L. Last five: L W D D W. They are averaging 2.20 goals per game — a high-scoring output that makes them a genuine attacking threat in any fixture. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is a standout defensive return — they are keeping their net clean in more than half their matches.

Al-Ahli Jeddah's home record over their last 8 home games: 6W 2D 0L (2.50 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.88 goals scored and 0.50 conceded per game. 5 clean sheets from their last 8 home games (62%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at home. Their home PPG of 2.50 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.80 — Al-Ahli Jeddah are significantly better at home than their overall form suggests.

Al-Raed (all games): 2W 2D 6L across their last 10 — 0.80 points per game. Last five: L D W L W. Their scoring rate of 1.40 per game is modest, conceding 1.80 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings (30%). Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.

When travelling, Al-Raed have posted 0W 4D 6L from their last 10 away outings — 0.40 PPG. Away from home they average 1.10 goals scored and 1.70 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.

The points-per-game gap of 1.00 in Al-Ahli Jeddah's favour (1.80 vs 0.80) is a statistically meaningful difference. The hosts are the form pick here, with draw protection the sensible hedge given the away side's competitiveness.

H2H History

Neither side has dominated the 2 H2H matches in our data: 0 wins for Al-Ahli Jeddah, 2 for Al-Raed and 0 draws — leaving the H2H largely neutral. With only 2 H2H matches to go on, treat this as a light input.

The 2 H2H matches in our data averaged 2.5 goals per game — a neutral rate that gives no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent of those, on 23 Jun 2022, ended Al-Ahli Jeddah 1–3 Al-Raed — a Al-Raed win.

The head-to-head data offers no strong steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the model and current market pricing should carry more weight for this fixture.

Trading

Al-Ahli Jeddah half-time and goal-timing data (last 15 games, 7 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 57% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 33% of the time; they lead at the break 60% of the time; BTTS occurs in 29% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 43% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 60%; they keep a clean sheet 47% of the time.

Al-Raed half-time and goal-timing data (last 15 games, 7 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 43% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 40% of the time; of the 4 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 25%; BTTS occurs in 43% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 43% of games (away games); they fail to score in 40% of games.

BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Al-Ahli Jeddah 53% versus Al-Raed 47%; no strong lean in either direction. Over 2.5 goals is well-supported by both sides' in-play profiles (Al-Ahli Jeddah 67% | Al-Raed 67%).

Poisson Model

The Poisson distribution model projects Al-Ahli Jeddah 1.66 xG and Al-Raed 0.96 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Al-Ahli Jeddah attack 0.942 / defence 0.776 | Al-Raed attack 0.871 / defence 1.113. League average goals — home 1.586 / away 1.417. Al-Ahli Jeddah have a tight defence (rating 0.776), which is pulling Al-Raed's projected output down. Data: built from Al-Ahli Jeddah's last 15 games and Al-Raed's last 45.

Result probabilities: Al-Ahli Jeddah 53% | Draw 26% | Al-Raed 21%. Fair-value odds: Al-Ahli Jeddah 1.88 | Draw 3.84 | Al-Raed 4.78. Al-Ahli Jeddah hold a narrow Poisson edge at 53% — the draw (26%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.

Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 49% | BTTS Yes probability 51% | Total xG 2.62. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 49%/51% — the total xG of 2.62 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS Yes at 51% is only a slight lean — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.

Verdict

The Poisson model's primary lean is Al-Ahli Jeddah at 53% — moderate model lean. Recent form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw probability of 26% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Al-Ahli Jeddah if the outright odds are short.

Poisson projects 2.62 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 51% probability — a Poisson-only call with no corroboration from form or H2H.

On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 51% on Yes. Form rates are neutral — both teams scored in: Al-Ahli Jeddah 38% (last 8 home games) | Al-Raed 60% (last 10 away games).

🔮 Your Prediction

Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.

💡 Key Insights