Al Taee 1-2 Al-Hilal Saudi FC – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model favours Al-Hilal Saudi FC (75%) — form and H2H data both point in the same direction as Al Taee face Al-Hilal Saudi FC.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Prince Abdul Aziz bin Musa'ed Stadium plays host to Al Taee versus Al-Hilal Saudi FC in Pro League, Regular Season - 16. Kick-off: Friday 8 December 2023 at 15:00 UTC.
Current Form
Al Taee's overall Pro League record this term: 3W 2D 5L from 10 games (1.10 PPG). Last five: W D L W W. Offensively they are averaging 1.70 goals per game, with 2.30 conceded. However, 2.30 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Al Taee, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Al Taee's form when playing at home: 5W 1D 4L across 10 games at Prince Abdul Aziz bin Musa'ed Stadium this term (1.60 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.60 goals scored and 1.80 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture. Their home PPG of 1.60 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.10 — Al Taee are significantly better at Prince Abdul Aziz bin Musa'ed Stadium than their overall form suggests.
Al-Hilal Saudi FC (all games): 9W 1D 0L across 10 Pro League outings this term — 2.80 points per game. Last five: W W W W W. Their attacking form is sharp — 3.20 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. Defensively, 0.30 goals conceded per game is elite-level — a side this difficult to score against is a real threat to Over 2.5 and BTTS Yes. 7 clean sheets from 10 games (70%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their games, reflecting a regular tendency to keep or record clean sheets. This season is still relatively young for Al-Hilal Saudi FC, so this record blends games from this season and last.
When travelling in Pro League this season, Al-Hilal Saudi FC have posted 8W 1D 1L from 10 away outings — 2.50 PPG. They are averaging 3.00 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support. 6 away clean sheets from 10 games (60%) — they are as difficult to score against on the road as they are at home. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel.
Al-Hilal Saudi FC arrive in superior form — a 1.70 PPG advantage (2.80 vs 1.10) that offsets much of the home-ground benefit. The away side are the form pick, with draw protection the sensible way to manage the home-field uncertainty.
Head-to-Head
Al-Hilal Saudi FC hold the superior head-to-head record in this fixture, claiming 3 wins from 4 meetings. The hosts have won just 0 times in that span.
Attacking output has been a hallmark of this fixture. At 3.5 goals per game across 4 meetings, the Over 2.5 has a statistically grounded case from the head-to-head record alone. The most recent clash, on 10 Apr 2023, ended 2–2 with a draw.
The H2H provides genuine backing for the away side. Al-Hilal Saudi FC have won 3 of 4 previous encounters, and at 3.5 goals per game, the goals market also points upward. The away win and Over 2.5 combination has a historical case worth noting.
Trading Data
Al Taee goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (45 games, 22 at home): they score before half-time in 77% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 54% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 64% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 36%.
Al-Hilal Saudi FC goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (45 games, 22 at away): they score before half-time in 82% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 91% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 73% of those occasions; they lead at the break 53% of the time; BTTS occurs in 32% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (away games); they keep a clean sheet 51% of the time.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Al Taee 51% versus Al-Hilal Saudi FC 42%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Al Taee 60% | Al-Hilal Saudi FC 53%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Al Taee 1.19 xG and Al-Hilal Saudi FC 3.13 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Al Taee attack 1.171 / defence 1.260 | Al-Hilal Saudi FC attack 1.731 / defence 0.657. League average goals — home 1.542 / away 1.433. Al-Hilal Saudi FC's defence strength of 0.657 is below average — they are conceding at a rate that inflates the home xG figure. Al-Hilal Saudi FC have an above-average attack strength of 1.731 — the away xG of 3.13 is driven by genuine attacking quality on the road. Data: 45 Al Taee games / 45 Al-Hilal Saudi FC games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Al Taee 11% | Draw 14% | Al-Hilal Saudi FC 75%. Fair-value odds: Al Taee 9.09 | Draw 7.14 | Al-Hilal Saudi FC 1.33. The model has a clear lean to Al-Hilal Saudi FC (75%) — a 64pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 80% | BTTS probability 67% | Total xG 4.31. Over 2.5 is the model's clear signal at 80% — a total xG of 4.31 means the expected score alone exceeds the 2.5 threshold, making the Over not just likely but structurally supported by both sides' attack/defence profiles. BTTS Yes at 67% reflects that both xG figures (1.19 / 3.13) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates Al-Hilal Saudi FC as the most likely outcome at 75% — clear model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support.
The Poisson model projects 4.31 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 80% — strong confidence, supported by form averaging 3.5 goals per game and H2H averaging 3.5 goals per meeting.
Poisson assigns a 67% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates are neutral: Al Taee 60% | Al-Hilal Saudi FC 30%.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Al Taee vs Al-Hilal Saudi FC | Competition: Pro League, Regular Season - 16 | Venue: Prince Abdul Aziz bin Musa'ed Stadium • Kick-off: Friday 8 Dec 2023, 15:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Al Taee 11% | Draw 14% | Al-Hilal Saudi FC 75% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 80% | BTTS 67% | xG Al Taee 1.19 / Al-Hilal Saudi FC 3.13 • Poisson strength factors: Al Taee attack 1.171 / def 1.260 | Al-Hilal Saudi FC attack 1.731 / def 0.657 | league avg home 1.542 / away 1.433 • Poisson stance: Al-Hilal Saudi FC (75%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.19
Al Taee xG
Expected Goals
3.13
Al-Hilal Saudi FC xG
67%
BTTS
93%
Over 1.5
80%
Over 2.5
63%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Al Taee vs Al-Hilal Saudi FC kick off?
Al Taee vs Al-Hilal Saudi FC kicked off at 15:00 on Friday 8 December 2023 at Prince Abdul Aziz bin Musa'ed Stadium.
What was the final score in Al Taee vs Al-Hilal Saudi FC?
Al Taee 1 - 2 Al-Hilal Saudi FC.
Where is Al Taee vs Al-Hilal Saudi FC being played?
The match is being played at Prince Abdul Aziz bin Musa'ed Stadium.
What competition is Al Taee vs Al-Hilal Saudi FC part of?
Al Taee vs Al-Hilal Saudi FC is a Regular Season - 16 fixture in the Pro League (Saudi-Arabia).
Who is favourite to win Al Taee vs Al-Hilal Saudi FC?
Our statistical model gives Al Taee a 11% chance of winning, Al-Hilal Saudi FC a 75% chance, and a 14% chance of a draw — making Al-Hilal Saudi FC the favourite.
Will both teams score in Al Taee vs Al-Hilal Saudi FC?
Our model estimates a 67% probability that both Al Taee and Al-Hilal Saudi FC will score (BTTS).
Will Al Taee vs Al-Hilal Saudi FC have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 80%.
What is the head-to-head record between Al Taee and Al-Hilal Saudi FC?
Record (4 meetings): Al Taee 0W | Draws 1 | Al-Hilal Saudi FC 3W.
What form are Al Taee and Al-Hilal Saudi FC in?
Al Taee (all comps): 3W-2D-5L in 10 | 1.10 PPG | GF 1.70 / GA 2.30 | L5 W-D-L-W-W. Al-Hilal Saudi FC (all comps): 9W-1D-0L in 10 | 2.80 PPG | GF 3.20 / GA 0.30 | L5 W-W-W-W-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
The model rates Al Taee's attack at 1.17x the league average against Al-Hilal Saudi FC's defence at 0.66x — combine the two and it projects 1.19 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — Al-Hilal Saudi FC's attack (1.73x) against Al Taee's defence (1.26x) — and the away total comes out at 3.13.
These ratings are built from 45/45 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-3 carries the highest individual probability at 8.1% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-2 (7.8%), 0-3 (6.8%). Together the top three scorelines make up 23% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Al-Hilal Saudi FC Win
11%
9.37
14%
7.13
75%
1.33
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 3
8.1%
Away win
Most likely
1 – 2
7.8%
Away win
0 – 3
6.8%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.19
Al Taee xG
Total xG
4.31
3.13
Al-Hilal Saudi FC xG
9.37
11%
Home win
7.13
14%
Draw
1.33
75%
Away win
Goals Markets
93%
Over 1.5
1.08
7%
Under 1.5
14.29
80%
Over 2.5
1.25
20%
Under 2.5
5.00
63%
Over 3.5
1.59
37%
Under 3.5
2.70
43%
Over 4.5
2.33
57%
Under 4.5
1.75
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
67%
BTTS Yes
1.50
33%
BTTS No
3.01
Clean Sheet
4%
22.78
31%
3.28
Win to Nil
0%
–
23%
4.35
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 1.3 | 4.2 | 6.5 | 6.8 | 5.3 | 3.3 |
| 1 | 1.6 | 5.0 | 7.8 | 8.1 | 6.3 | 4.0 |
| 2 | 0.9 | 2.9 | 4.6 | 4.8 | 3.8 | 2.3 |
| 3 | 0.4 | 1.2 | 1.8 | 1.9 | 1.5 | 0.9 |
| 4 | 0.1 | 0.3 | 0.5 | 0.6 | 0.4 | 0.3 |
| 5 | – | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Al Taee vs Al-Hilal Saudi FC?
Our Poisson model rates 1-3 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 8.1%.
How many goals are Al Taee and Al-Hilal Saudi FC expected to score?
The model projects 1.19 expected goals for Al Taee and 3.13 for Al-Hilal Saudi FC, a combined total of 4.31.
How confident is the prediction model for Al Taee vs Al-Hilal Saudi FC?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 75%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Al Taee come into this having played 45 games, going 15W 6D 24L for 1.13 points per game. Their last five reads W-D-L-W-W. The sample for Al Taee is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Al-Hilal Saudi FC sit at 2.22 PPG from 45 outings (30W 10D 5L), a run that reads W-W-W-W-W across their last five. The sample for Al-Hilal Saudi FC is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Al-Hilal Saudi FC carry the stronger recent form of the two, 1.09 PPG clear of Al Taee — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
Home & Away Splits
Al Taee's home form reads 11W 2D 9L across 22 games on their own ground, a 1.59 PPG return. That's noticeably better than their 1.13 PPG overall — Al Taee are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
Away from home, Al-Hilal Saudi FC have taken 2.14 points per game from 22 outings (14W 5D 3L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Al-Hilal Saudi FC come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Al Taee are averaging 1.33 goals scored and 1.76 conceded per game recently; Al-Hilal Saudi FC are on 2.22 scored and 0.82 conceded.
Defensively: Al-Hilal Saudi FC in 51% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 45 Results — Pro League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Al Taee
Blended
Al-Hilal Saudi FC
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Al Taee and Al-Hilal Saudi FC in coming into this match?
Al Taee have gone 15W 6D 24L in their last 45 games (1.13 PPG), while Al-Hilal Saudi FC have gone 30W 10D 5L in their last 45 (2.22 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Al Taee at home or Al-Hilal Saudi FC away?
Al-Hilal Saudi FC's away record (2.14 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Al Taee at home: 1.59 PPG; Al-Hilal Saudi FC away: 2.14 PPG.
Have Al Taee or Al-Hilal Saudi FC been keeping clean sheets recently?
Al Taee have kept a clean sheet in 22% of their recent games, Al-Hilal Saudi FC in 51%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 6 times since August 2021 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Pro League. It has been a while since the last meeting — 23 May 2024, some 2 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Records & Recent Trends
Al-Hilal Saudi FC go into this on the back of 2 straight wins in the series — the current momentum sits squarely with them.
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Al-Hilal Saudi FC won 0-4 on 11 Jan 2022, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Al Taee have gone 0W 0D 3L from 3 meetings on their own ground against Al-Hilal Saudi FC — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 6 Meetings
0
Al Taee
1
Draws
5
Al-Hilal Saudi FC
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Al Taee and Al-Hilal Saudi FC?
From 6 meetings on record, Al Taee have won 0, Al-Hilal Saudi FC have won 5, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Al Taee and Al-Hilal Saudi FC last play each other?
They last met on 23 May 2024, when Al-Hilal Saudi FC 3-1 Al Taee.
Who has won more matches between Al Taee and Al-Hilal Saudi FC?
Al-Hilal Saudi FC have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from 6 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Al Taee are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 77% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 41% of the time.
Al-Hilal Saudi FC are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 82% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 64% of the time.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Al Taee 50%, Al-Hilal Saudi FC 32% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 64% (Al Taee) and 50% (Al-Hilal Saudi FC). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 36% and 36% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Al Taee keep a clean sheet in 36% of their matches; Al-Hilal Saudi FC in 54%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Al Taee home games / Al-Hilal Saudi FC away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Al Taee play Al-Hilal Saudi FC?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 50% of Al Taee's recent matches and 32% of Al-Hilal Saudi FC's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Al Taee vs Al-Hilal Saudi FC usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 64% of Al Taee's matches and 50% of Al-Hilal Saudi FC's.
Do Al Taee and Al-Hilal Saudi FC tend to score early?
Al Taee have had a goal before half-time in 77% of their recent matches, Al-Hilal Saudi FC in 82% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Al-Hilal Saudi FC edge out Al Taee 1-2.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Al-Hilal Saudi FC beat Al Taee 1-2 at Prince Abdul Aziz bin Musa'ed Stadium, Regular Season - 16, in the Pro League. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Al Taee 1.19 xG and Al-Hilal Saudi FC 3.13 xG, a combined 4.31. The scoreboard read 1-2 for 3 actual goals. Al-Hilal Saudi FC landed 1.1 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Al Taee attack 1.17 / defence 1.26 against Al-Hilal Saudi FC attack 1.73 / defence 0.66, drawn from 45/45 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Al Taee 11% | Draw 14% | Al-Hilal Saudi FC 75%, with Al-Hilal Saudi FC to win its most likely call at 75%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 80%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 93% and landed. Over 3.5 was 63% and did not. On both teams to score, the model sat at 67% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 57% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Al Taee 60%, Al-Hilal Saudi FC 53%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 47%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Al Taee's trading profile (45 games, 22 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 51% of their matches — today it did.
Al-Hilal Saudi FC's trading profile (45 games, 22 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 42% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 51% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
On form, Al-Hilal Saudi FC arrived the stronger side — 2.22 PPG against 1.13. The form guide was vindicated by the result.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 4 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (hit). The data earned its keep here, calling the bulk of the fixture correctly.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.