Al Shabab 0-0 Al-Ettifaq – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Al Shabab at 42% — neither recent form nor the head-to-head data gives a clear steer either way as Al Shabab face Al-Ettifaq.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Al-Shabab Club Stadium plays host to Al Shabab versus Al-Ettifaq in Pro League (matchday 16). Kick-off: Thursday 7 December 2023 at 18:00 UK time.
Form & Momentum
Al Shabab have collected 1.40 PPG across their last 10 games: 4W 2D 4L. Last five: L W L D L. They are averaging 1.30 goals per game and conceding 1.10 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base.
Al Shabab's home record over their last 10 home games: 4W 2D 4L (1.40 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.20 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game.
Al-Ettifaq's record over their last 10 games: 3W 4D 3L (1.30 PPG). Last five: W D D D L. Their scoring rate of 1.20 per game is modest, conceding 1.10 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings (30%).
When travelling, Al-Ettifaq have posted 4W 2D 4L from their last 10 away outings — 1.40 PPG. Away from home they average 1.10 goals scored and 0.90 conceded per game. 4 clean sheets from their last 10 away games (40%) shows they are capable of shutting up shop on the road. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel.
Neither side holds a meaningful form edge. The 1.40 vs 1.30 PPG split is negligible — model and market signals should carry more analytical weight for this one.
H2H History
The head-to-head record is closely matched — across the 4 H2H matches in our data, the wins are level at 1 apiece, with 2 draws. Neither side has a commanding advantage.
The 4 H2H matches in our data have been high-scoring — 3.5 goals per game on average — which backs the Over 2.5 market from the head-to-head side. The most recent of those, on 14 May 2023, ended Al Shabab 0–1 Al-Ettifaq — a Al-Ettifaq win.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H signal is in the goals market — at 3.5 goals per game, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle from the head-to-head data.
Trading Data
Al Shabab goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (last 45 games, 22 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 77% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 78% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 56% of those occasions; of the 19 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 26%; of the 13 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 38%; BTTS occurs in 41% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 54% of games (home games).
Al-Ettifaq goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (last 45 games, 22 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 68% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 60% of the time; of the 7 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 43%; of the 15 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 27%; BTTS occurs in 32% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 36% of games (away games); they fail to score in 40% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Al Shabab 56% versus Al-Ettifaq 42%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Al Shabab 62% | Al-Ettifaq 42%). Note also that Al-Ettifaq surrender HT leads in 43% of cases while Al Shabab recover from half-time deficits to draw or win 38% of the time — a dynamic that could influence in-play positioning.
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Al Shabab 1.23 xG and Al-Ettifaq 0.96 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Al Shabab attack 0.983 / defence 0.912 | Al-Ettifaq attack 0.728 / defence 0.807. League average goals — home 1.554 / away 1.442. Al-Ettifaq's attack rating of 0.728 is below the league average, which holds their xG down at 0.96. Data: built from Al Shabab's last 45 games and Al-Ettifaq's last 45.
Result probabilities: Al Shabab 42% | Draw 30% | Al-Ettifaq 28%. Fair-value odds: Al Shabab 2.39 | Draw 3.31 | Al-Ettifaq 3.57. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome reaches 45%. The draw at 30% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 37% | BTTS Yes probability 44% | Total xG 2.19. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 63% — total xG of 2.19 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS No at 56% is only a slight lean — the model gives both sides a fair chance of scoring, so No isn't a clear standalone call.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates Al Shabab as the most likely outcome at 42% — marginal model lean. Draw probability of 30% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Al Shabab if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 28% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 2.19 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 63% probability — mixed conviction, supported by recent form (Al Shabab's last 10 home games and Al-Ettifaq's last 10 away games) averaging 2.2 goals per game — though the H2H data averaging 3.5 goals per game across 4 H2H matches points the other way.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 56% on No. Form rates corroborate — both teams scored in: Al Shabab 50% (last 10 home games) | Al-Ettifaq 30% (last 10 away games).
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Al Shabab vs Al-Ettifaq | Competition: Pro League, matchday 16 | Venue: Al-Shabab Club Stadium • Kick-off: Thursday 7 December 2023 at 18:00 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Al Shabab 42% | Draw 30% | Al-Ettifaq 28% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 37% (Under 63%) | BTTS Yes 44% (No 56%) | xG Al Shabab 1.23 / Al-Ettifaq 0.96 • Poisson strength factors: Al Shabab attack 0.983 / def 0.912 | Al-Ettifaq attack 0.728 / def 0.807 | league avg home 1.554 / away 1.442 • Poisson stance: Al Shabab (42%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.23
Al Shabab xG
Expected Goals
0.96
Al-Ettifaq xG
44%
BTTS
65%
Over 1.5
37%
Over 2.5
18%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Al Shabab vs Al-Ettifaq FAQs
What time does Al Shabab vs Al-Ettifaq kick off?
Al Shabab vs Al-Ettifaq kicked off at 18:00 UK time on Thursday 7 December 2023 at Al-Shabab Club Stadium.
What was the final score in Al Shabab vs Al-Ettifaq?
Al Shabab 0 - 0 Al-Ettifaq.
Where is Al Shabab vs Al-Ettifaq being played?
The match is being played at Al-Shabab Club Stadium.
What competition is Al Shabab vs Al-Ettifaq part of?
Al Shabab vs Al-Ettifaq is a Pro League fixture (matchday 16) (Saudi-Arabia).
Who is favourite to win Al Shabab vs Al-Ettifaq?
Our statistical model gives Al Shabab a 42% chance of winning, Al-Ettifaq a 28% chance, and a 30% chance of a draw — making Al Shabab the favourite.
Will both teams score in Al Shabab vs Al-Ettifaq?
Our model estimates a 44% probability that both Al Shabab and Al-Ettifaq will score, so it leans towards BTTS No (56%).
Will Al Shabab vs Al-Ettifaq have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 37%, so it leans towards under 2.5 goals (63%).
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
The model rates Al Shabab's attack at 0.98x the league average against Al-Ettifaq's defence at 0.81x — combine the two and it projects 1.23 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — Al-Ettifaq's attack (0.73x) against Al Shabab's defence (0.91x) — and the away total comes out at 0.96.
These ratings are built from Al Shabab's last 45 games and Al-Ettifaq's last 45 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 14.9% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 0-0 (12.9%), 1-0 (12.1%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 40% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Al Shabab Win
42%
2.39
30%
3.31
28%
3.57
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
13.8%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
13.2%
Draw
0 – 0
11.2%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.23
Al Shabab xG
Total xG
2.19
0.96
Al-Ettifaq xG
2.39
42%
Home win
3.31
30%
Draw
3.57
28%
Away win
Goals Markets
64%
Over 1.5
1.56
36%
Under 1.5
2.78
37%
Over 2.5
2.70
63%
Under 2.5
1.59
18%
Over 3.5
5.56
82%
Under 3.5
1.22
7%
Over 4.5
14.29
93%
Under 4.5
1.08
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
44%
BTTS Yes
2.26
56%
BTTS No
1.80
Clean Sheet
38%
2.61
29%
3.43
Win to Nil
16%
6.24
8%
12.23
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 11.2 | 10.7 | 5.1 | 1.6 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 13.8 | 13.2 | 6.3 | 2.0 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 8.5 | 8.1 | 3.9 | 1.2 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 3.5 | 3.3 | 1.6 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 1.1 | 1.0 | 0.5 | 0.2 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.3 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Al Shabab vs Al-Ettifaq Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for Al Shabab vs Al-Ettifaq?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.9%.
How many goals are Al Shabab and Al-Ettifaq expected to score?
The model projects 1.23 expected goals for Al Shabab and 0.96 for Al-Ettifaq, a combined total of 2.19.
How confident is the prediction model for Al Shabab vs Al-Ettifaq?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 42%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Al Shabab come into this having played 45 games, going 21W 9D 15L for 1.60 points per game. Their last five reads L-W-L-D-L.
On the other side, Al-Ettifaq sit at 1.33 PPG from 45 outings (16W 12D 17L), a run that reads W-D-D-D-L across their last five.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.60 PPG for Al Shabab against 1.33 for Al-Ettifaq. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
Home & Away Splits
Al Shabab's home form reads 13W 4D 5L across their last 22 home games, a 1.95 PPG return.
Away from home, Al-Ettifaq have taken 1.05 points per game from their last 22 away games (6W 5D 11L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Al Shabab come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Al Shabab are averaging 1.64 goals scored and 1.24 conceded per game recently; Al-Ettifaq are on 1.07 scored and 1.16 conceded.
Last 45 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Al Shabab
Blended
Al-Ettifaq
Blended
Al Shabab (Home) vs Al-Ettifaq (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
Al Shabab
Blended
Al-Ettifaq
Blended
❓ Al Shabab vs Al-Ettifaq Form FAQs
What form are Al Shabab and Al-Ettifaq in coming into this match?
Al Shabab have gone 21W 9D 15L in their last 45 games (1.60 PPG), while Al-Ettifaq have gone 16W 12D 17L in their last 45 (1.33 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Al Shabab at home or Al-Ettifaq away?
Al Shabab's home record (1.95 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Al Shabab at home: 1.95 PPG; Al-Ettifaq away: 1.05 PPG.
Have Al Shabab or Al-Ettifaq been keeping clean sheets recently?
Al Shabab have kept a clean sheet in 33% of their recent games, Al-Ettifaq in 31%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
We have 10 H2H matches between these sides on record, dating back to August 2021 — enough to show some patterns. All of them came in Pro League. The most recent was on 7 March 2026, roughly 8 months ago.
Records & Recent Trends
The most recent 2 H2H matches in our data have all been drawn — an unusually settled run for this fixture.
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Al Shabab won Al Shabab 3-0 Al-Ettifaq on 30 Dec 2022, the biggest margin in the H2H matches we hold.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Al Shabab have gone 1W 3D 1L from the 5 H2H matches in our data played on their own ground against Al-Ettifaq — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
1
Al Shabab
5
Draws
4
Al-Ettifaq
Recent Meetings
❓ Al Shabab vs Al-Ettifaq H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between Al Shabab and Al-Ettifaq?
Across the 10 head-to-head matches in our data, Al Shabab have won 1, Al-Ettifaq have won 4, and 5 have been drawn.
When did Al Shabab and Al-Ettifaq last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 7 March 2026: Al-Ettifaq 1-1 Al Shabab.
Who has won more matches between Al Shabab and Al-Ettifaq?
Al-Ettifaq have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from the 10 head-to-head matches in our data.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Al Shabab are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 77% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 54% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 17% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 33% of those situations.
Al-Ettifaq are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 68% of their matches.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Al Shabab 41%, Al-Ettifaq 32% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 54% (Al Shabab) and 36% (Al-Ettifaq).
On the defensive side: Al Shabab keep a clean sheet in 50% of their matches; Al-Ettifaq in 54%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Al Shabab home games / Al-Ettifaq away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Al Shabab vs Al-Ettifaq Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in Al Shabab and Al-Ettifaq matches?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 41% of Al Shabab's recent matches and 32% of Al-Ettifaq's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Are Al Shabab and Al-Ettifaq matches usually high-scoring?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 54% of Al Shabab's recent games and 36% of Al-Ettifaq's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Al Shabab and Al-Ettifaq matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 77% of Al Shabab's recent matches and 68% of Al-Ettifaq's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Stalemate at Al Shabab's ground as both sides cancel each other out in a goalless draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Al Shabab and Al-Ettifaq finished level at 0-0 at Al-Shabab Club Stadium, Regular Season - 16, in the Pro League. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Al Shabab 1.23 xG and Al-Ettifaq 0.96 xG, a combined 2.19. The scoreboard read 0-0 for 0 actual goals. Al Shabab fell 1.2 short of their projected output. Al-Ettifaq landed 1.0 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Al Shabab attack 0.98 / defence 0.91 against Al-Ettifaq attack 0.73 / defence 0.81, drawn from 45/45 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Al Shabab 42% | Draw 30% | Al-Ettifaq 28%, with Al Shabab to win its most likely call at 42%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 30%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 37%. The game delivered 0, so it stayed under — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 65% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 44% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 52% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Al Shabab 62%, Al-Ettifaq 42%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 49%, which matched the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Al Shabab's trading profile (45 games, 22 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 56% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 33% of the time, and duly kept one.
Al-Ettifaq's trading profile (45 games, 22 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 42% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 31% of the time, and duly kept one; they fail to score in 40% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Al Shabab 1.60 PPG, Al-Ettifaq 1.33 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing. Al Shabab (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.77 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 0.82 average — tighter than their form line. Al-Ettifaq (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 0.86 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.18 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.