Abha 1-1 Al-Hazm – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Abha at 43%, yet other data sources diverge — this Abha vs Al-Hazm fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
Al-Hazm make the trip to Prince Sultan bin Abdulaziz Sports City Stadium to face Abha in Pro League, Regular Season - 17. The match kicks off on Thursday 14 December 2023 at 15:00 UTC.
Form
Abha (all games): 2W 1D 7L across 10 Pro League fixtures this term — 0.70 PPG. Last five: W L L L L. They are averaging 1.30 goals per game and conceding 3.10 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. However, 3.10 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Abha, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Abha's home record at Prince Sultan bin Abdulaziz Sports City Stadium: 5W 0D 5L from 10 Pro League appearances (1.50 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.20 goals scored and 2.10 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture. Their home PPG of 1.50 is noticeably stronger than their overall 0.70 — Abha are significantly better at Prince Sultan bin Abdulaziz Sports City Stadium than their overall form suggests.
Al-Hazm's overall Pro League record this term: 2W 2D 6L from 10 games (0.80 PPG). Last five: L L L D W. Their scoring rate of 1.30 per game is modest, conceding 2.90 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Conceding 2.90 per game is a high rate — their defensive vulnerabilities have been exposed regularly this season. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Al-Hazm, so this record blends games from this season and last.
When travelling in Pro League this season, Al-Hazm have posted 0W 4D 4L from 8 away outings — 0.50 PPG. Away from home they average 0.88 goals scored and 2.00 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 75% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
Both sides are running at similar form levels — 0.70 PPG for Abha against 0.80 for Al-Hazm. There is no clear form edge to exploit here; other signals need to take the lead.
In terms of goals, both squads have been finding the net consistently (using home/away splits) — Abha have seen both teams score in 60% of their games, Al-Hazm in 75%. That combined rate is a strong statistical case for BTTS Yes as a standalone play.
H2H Analysis
The head-to-head record is closely matched — Abha lead 1W to 1W over the last 2 encounters, with 0 draws, though neither side has established a commanding advantage.
The 2 previous meetings have averaged 2.5 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 11 Feb 2022, ended 2–1 with Abha winning.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
Trading Data
Abha goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (16 games, 8 at home): they score before half-time in 50% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; BTTS occurs in 62% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 75% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 62%; they fail to score in 31% of games.
Al-Hazm goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (16 games, 8 at away): they score before half-time in 75% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 33% of the time; BTTS occurs in 75% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 62% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 50%.
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Abha 62% and Al-Hazm 69% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. Over 2.5 goals is well-supported by both sides' in-play profiles (Abha 75% | Al-Hazm 62%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Abha 1.69 xG and Al-Hazm 1.43 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Abha attack 0.868 / defence 1.417 | Al-Hazm attack 0.722 / defence 1.241. League average goals — home 1.568 / away 1.394. Al-Hazm bring a strong defensive rating of 1.241 — this is suppressing Abha's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 46 Abha games / 16 Al-Hazm games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Abha 43% | Draw 25% | Al-Hazm 32%. Fair-value odds: Abha 2.33 | Draw 4.00 | Al-Hazm 3.12. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 25% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 60% | BTTS probability 63% | Total xG 3.12. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 60% — the 3.12 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 63% reflects that both xG figures (1.69 / 1.43) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates Abha as the most likely outcome at 43% — marginal model lean. Draw probability of 25% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Abha if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 32% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 3.12 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 60% — reasonable confidence, supported by form averaging 3.1 goals per game.
Poisson assigns a 63% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Abha 60% | Al-Hazm 75% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 32% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Abha vs Al-Hazm | Competition: Pro League, Regular Season - 17 | Venue: Prince Sultan bin Abdulaziz Sports City Stadium • Kick-off: Thursday 14 Dec 2023, 15:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Abha 43% | Draw 25% | Al-Hazm 32% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 60% | BTTS 63% | xG Abha 1.69 / Al-Hazm 1.43 • Poisson strength factors: Abha attack 0.868 / def 1.417 | Al-Hazm attack 0.722 / def 1.241 | league avg home 1.568 / away 1.394 • Poisson stance: Abha (43%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.69
Abha xG
Expected Goals
1.43
Al-Hazm xG
63%
BTTS
83%
Over 1.5
60%
Over 2.5
38%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Abha vs Al-Hazm kick off?
Abha vs Al-Hazm kicked off at 15:00 on Thursday 14 December 2023 at Prince Sultan bin Abdulaziz Sports City Stadium.
What was the final score in Abha vs Al-Hazm?
Abha 1 - 1 Al-Hazm.
Where is Abha vs Al-Hazm being played?
The match is being played at Prince Sultan bin Abdulaziz Sports City Stadium.
What competition is Abha vs Al-Hazm part of?
Abha vs Al-Hazm is a Regular Season - 17 fixture in the Pro League (Saudi-Arabia).
Who is favourite to win Abha vs Al-Hazm?
Our statistical model gives Abha a 43% chance of winning, Al-Hazm a 32% chance, and a 25% chance of a draw — making Abha the favourite.
Will both teams score in Abha vs Al-Hazm?
Our model estimates a 63% probability that both Abha and Al-Hazm will score (BTTS).
Will Abha vs Al-Hazm have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 60%.
What is the head-to-head record between Abha and Al-Hazm?
Record (2 meetings): Abha 1W | Draws 0 | Al-Hazm 1W.
What form are Abha and Al-Hazm in?
Abha (all comps): 2W-1D-7L in 10 | 0.70 PPG | GF 1.30 / GA 3.10 | L5 W-L-L-L-L. Al-Hazm (all comps): 2W-2D-6L in 10 | 0.80 PPG | GF 1.30 / GA 2.90 | L5 L-L-L-D-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Working from Abha's attack rating (0.87) and Al-Hazm's defence rating (1.24), the model arrives at 1.69 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — Al-Hazm's attack (0.72x) against Abha's defence (1.42x) — and the away total comes out at 1.43.
These ratings are built from 46/16 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 12.1%. Close behind: 2-1 (9.0%), 1-2 (7.6%). Together the top three scorelines make up 29% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Abha Win
43%
2.32
25%
3.96
32%
3.16
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
10.7%
Draw
Most likely
2 – 1
9.0%
Home win
1 – 2
7.6%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.69
Abha xG
Total xG
3.12
1.43
Al-Hazm xG
2.32
43%
Home win
3.96
25%
Draw
3.16
32%
Away win
Goals Markets
82%
Over 1.5
1.22
18%
Under 1.5
5.56
60%
Over 2.5
1.67
40%
Under 2.5
2.50
38%
Over 3.5
2.63
62%
Under 3.5
1.61
20%
Over 4.5
5.00
80%
Under 4.5
1.25
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
63%
BTTS Yes
1.59
37%
BTTS No
2.69
Clean Sheet
24%
4.16
18%
5.42
Win to Nil
10%
9.66
6%
17.14
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4.4 | 6.3 | 4.5 | 2.1 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 7.5 | 10.7 | 7.6 | 3.6 | 1.3 | 0.4 |
| 2 | 6.3 | 9.0 | 6.4 | 3.1 | 1.1 | 0.3 |
| 3 | 3.6 | 5.1 | 3.6 | 1.7 | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 1.5 | 2.2 | 1.5 | 0.7 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.5 | 0.7 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Abha vs Al-Hazm?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.1%.
How many goals are Abha and Al-Hazm expected to score?
The model projects 1.69 expected goals for Abha and 1.43 for Al-Hazm, a combined total of 3.12.
How confident is the prediction model for Abha vs Al-Hazm?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 43%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Abha come into this having played 16 games, going 4W 1D 11L for 0.81 points per game. Their last five reads W-L-L-L-L. The sample for Abha is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Al-Hazm sit at 0.69 PPG from 16 outings (2W 5D 9L), a run that reads L-L-L-D-W across their last five. The sample for Al-Hazm is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 0.81 PPG for Abha against 0.69 for Al-Hazm. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
How They Fare by Venue
Abha's home form reads 4W 0D 4L across 8 games on their own ground, a 1.50 PPG return. That's noticeably better than their 0.81 PPG overall — Abha are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
Away from home, Al-Hazm have taken 0.50 points per game from 8 outings (0W 4D 4L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Abha come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Attack vs Defence
Abha are averaging 1.12 goals scored and 2.50 conceded per game recently; Al-Hazm are on 1.06 scored and 2.56 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Abha have seen both teams score in 62% of their recent games; Al-Hazm in 69%.
Last 16 Results — Pro League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Abha
Blended
Al-Hazm
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Abha and Al-Hazm in coming into this match?
Abha have gone 4W 1D 11L in their last 16 games (0.81 PPG), while Al-Hazm have gone 2W 5D 9L in their last 16 (0.69 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Abha at home or Al-Hazm away?
Abha's home record (1.50 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Abha at home: 1.50 PPG; Al-Hazm away: 0.50 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 4 times that we have on record, stretching back to September 2021 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 2 years. Every recorded meeting has come in Pro League. It has been a while since the last meeting — 27 May 2024, some 2 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Notable Numbers
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Abha have gone 1W 1D 0L from 2 meetings on their own ground against Al-Hazm — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 4 Meetings
1
Abha
1
Draws
2
Al-Hazm
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Abha and Al-Hazm?
From 4 meetings on record, Abha have won 1, Al-Hazm have won 2, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Abha and Al-Hazm last play each other?
They last met on 27 May 2024, when Al-Hazm 2-1 Abha.
Who has won more matches between Abha and Al-Hazm?
Al-Hazm have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from 4 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Abha see a goal before the break in 50% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 12% of those situations.
Al-Hazm are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 75% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 25% of those situations.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS has landed consistently for both sides recently — 62% for Abha, 75% for Al-Hazm — a strong two-way scoring signal.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 75% for Abha and 62% for Al-Hazm. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 50% and 50% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Abha home games / Al-Hazm away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Abha play Al-Hazm?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 62% of Abha's games and 75% of Al-Hazm's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Abha vs Al-Hazm usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 75% of Abha's matches and 62% of Al-Hazm's.
Do Abha and Al-Hazm tend to score early?
Abha have had a goal before half-time in 50% of their recent matches, Al-Hazm in 75% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Abha and Al-Hazm share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at Prince Sultan bin Abdulaziz Sports City Stadium, Regular Season - 17, as Abha and Al-Hazm drew 1-1 in the Pro League. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Abha 1.69 xG and Al-Hazm 1.43 xG, a combined 3.12. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Abha attack 0.87 / defence 1.42 against Al-Hazm attack 0.72 / defence 1.24, drawn from 46/16 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Abha 43% | Draw 25% | Al-Hazm 32%, with Abha to win its most likely call at 43%. Instead the game produced a draw, an outcome the model had rated at just 25% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 60%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 83% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 63% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 69% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Abha 75%, Al-Hazm 62%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 66%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Abha's trading profile (16 games, 8 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 62% of their matches — today it did.
Al-Hazm's trading profile (16 games, 8 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 69% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Abha 0.81 PPG, Al-Hazm 0.69 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing. Abha (home/away splits) conceded 1 against a 2.12 average — tighter than their form line. Al-Hazm (home/away splits) conceded 1 against a 2.00 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.