Al-Fayha 1-1 Al-Ahli Jeddah – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model favours Al-Ahli Jeddah (47%) — recent form and the head-to-head data both point the same way as Al-Fayha face Al-Ahli Jeddah.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
Al-Ahli Jeddah travel to King Abdullah Sports City Stadium to take on Al-Fayha in Pro League (matchday 29). The game is scheduled for Wednesday 8 April 2026 at 17:55 UK time.
Form Analysis
Looking at their last 10 matches, Al-Fayha stand at 5W 1D 4L — 1.60 PPG. Last five: D L W W L. Offensively they are averaging 1.80 goals per game, with 1.10 conceded. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings (30%).
In front of their own supporters, Al-Fayha have posted 5W 3D 2L from their last 10 home games — 1.80 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.40 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per game. 5 clean sheets from their last 10 home games (50%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at home.
Al-Ahli Jeddah — last 10 games: 8W 1D 1L — 2.50 PPG. Last five: W W W L W. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.50 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. Defensively, 0.70 goals conceded per game is elite-level — a side this difficult to score against is a real threat to Over 2.5 and BTTS Yes. 6 clean sheets from 10 games (60%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not.
Al-Ahli Jeddah away from home: 7W 1D 2L from their last 10 away games — 2.20 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 1.60 goals scored and 0.70 conceded per game. 7 away clean sheets from their last 10 away games (70%) — they are hard to break down on the road. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel.
Form points away from home here. Al-Ahli Jeddah's 2.50 PPG return is 0.90 points per game ahead of Al-Fayha's 1.60 — the visitors are the form-based selection, and Double Chance is an alternative worth pricing if the outright looks tight.
H2H
Despite the home advantage, Al-Ahli Jeddah have the better record in our head-to-head data — 5 wins from 7 H2H matches against 1 for Al-Fayha.
The 7 H2H matches in our data averaged 2.4 goals per game — a neutral rate that gives no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent of those, on 30 Dec 2025, ended Al-Fayha 0–2 Al-Ahli Jeddah — a Al-Ahli Jeddah win.
Al-Ahli Jeddah have the better head-to-head record despite being the visitors — 5 wins from 7 H2H matches. Home advantage alone is not a reason to dismiss that.
In-Play Profile
Al-Fayha in-play tendencies (last 61 games, 30 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 63% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 61% of the time; of the 14 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 36%; BTTS occurs in 40% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 30% of games (home games); they fail to score in 41% of games.
Al-Ahli Jeddah in-play tendencies (last 61 games, 30 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 57% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 90% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 53% of those occasions; they lead at the break 46% of the time; of the 11 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 64%; BTTS occurs in 33% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 37% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 36%; they keep a clean sheet 46% of the time.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Al-Fayha 43% versus Al-Ahli Jeddah 48%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Al-Fayha 46% | Al-Ahli Jeddah 51%). There is an in-play dynamic worth noting: Al-Fayha surrender their half-time lead 36% of the time, while Al-Ahli Jeddah have come from behind at the break to draw or win in 64% of cases — a combination that makes laying the hosts at HT a potential angle.
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Al-Fayha 0.94 xG and Al-Ahli Jeddah 1.39 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Al-Fayha attack 0.879 / defence 0.908 | Al-Ahli Jeddah attack 1.088 / defence 0.694. League average goals — home 1.541 / away 1.409. Al-Ahli Jeddah bring a tight defence (rating 0.694, below 1 = concedes less than average) — this is pulling Al-Fayha's projected output down. Data: built from Al-Fayha's last 61 games and Al-Ahli Jeddah's last 61.
Result probabilities: Al-Fayha 25% | Draw 27% | Al-Ahli Jeddah 47%. Fair-value odds: Al-Fayha 3.94 | Draw 3.67 | Al-Ahli Jeddah 2.11. Al-Ahli Jeddah hold a narrow Poisson edge at 47% — the draw (27%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 41% | BTTS Yes probability 46% | Total xG 2.33. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 59% — total xG of 2.33 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS No at 54% is only a slight lean — the model gives both sides a fair chance of scoring, so No isn't a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Al-Ahli Jeddah as the most likely outcome at 47% — moderate model lean. Recent form and the head-to-head data both align with the Poisson read — multi-source corroboration increases confidence in this selection. With a 27% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Al-Ahli Jeddah offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
The Poisson model projects 2.33 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 59% — a Poisson-only call with no corroboration from form or H2H.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 54% on No. Form rates corroborate — both teams scored in: Al-Fayha 40% (last 10 home games) | Al-Ahli Jeddah 30% (last 10 away games).
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Al-Fayha vs Al-Ahli Jeddah | Competition: Pro League, matchday 29 | Venue: King Abdullah Sports City Stadium • Kick-off: Wednesday 8 April 2026 at 17:55 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Al-Fayha 25% | Draw 27% | Al-Ahli Jeddah 47% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 41% (Under 59%) | BTTS Yes 46% (No 54%) | xG Al-Fayha 0.94 / Al-Ahli Jeddah 1.39 • Poisson strength factors: Al-Fayha attack 0.879 / def 0.908 | Al-Ahli Jeddah attack 1.088 / def 0.694 | league avg home 1.541 / away 1.409 • Poisson stance: Al-Ahli Jeddah (47%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
0.94
Al-Fayha xG
Expected Goals
1.39
Al-Ahli Jeddah xG
46%
BTTS
68%
Over 1.5
41%
Over 2.5
21%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Al-Fayha vs Al-Ahli Jeddah FAQs
What time does Al-Fayha vs Al-Ahli Jeddah kick off?
Al-Fayha vs Al-Ahli Jeddah kicked off at 17:55 UK time on Wednesday 8 April 2026 at King Abdullah Sports City Stadium.
What was the final score in Al-Fayha vs Al-Ahli Jeddah?
Al-Fayha 1 - 1 Al-Ahli Jeddah.
Where is Al-Fayha vs Al-Ahli Jeddah being played?
The match is being played at King Abdullah Sports City Stadium.
What competition is Al-Fayha vs Al-Ahli Jeddah part of?
Al-Fayha vs Al-Ahli Jeddah is a Pro League fixture (matchday 29) (Saudi-Arabia).
Who is favourite to win Al-Fayha vs Al-Ahli Jeddah?
Our statistical model gives Al-Fayha a 25% chance of winning, Al-Ahli Jeddah a 47% chance, and a 27% chance of a draw — making Al-Ahli Jeddah the favourite.
Will both teams score in Al-Fayha vs Al-Ahli Jeddah?
Our model estimates a 46% probability that both Al-Fayha and Al-Ahli Jeddah will score, so it leans towards BTTS No (54%).
Will Al-Fayha vs Al-Ahli Jeddah have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 41%, so it leans towards under 2.5 goals (59%).
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Working from Al-Fayha's attack rating (0.88) and Al-Ahli Jeddah's defence rating (0.69), the model arrives at 0.94 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Al-Ahli Jeddah's attack versus Al-Fayha's defence, projects 1.39 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from Al-Fayha's last 61 games and Al-Ahli Jeddah's last 61 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 14.4%. Close behind: 0-1 (11.9%), 0-0 (11.4%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 38% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Al-Ahli Jeddah Win
25%
3.94
27%
3.67
47%
2.11
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 1
13.5%
Away win
Most likely
1 – 1
12.7%
Draw
0 – 0
9.7%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
0.94
Al-Fayha xG
Total xG
2.33
1.39
Al-Ahli Jeddah xG
3.94
25%
Home win
3.67
27%
Draw
2.11
47%
Away win
Goals Markets
68%
Over 1.5
1.47
32%
Under 1.5
3.12
41%
Over 2.5
2.44
59%
Under 2.5
1.69
21%
Over 3.5
4.76
79%
Under 3.5
1.27
9%
Over 4.5
11.11
91%
Under 4.5
1.10
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
46%
BTTS Yes
2.18
54%
BTTS No
1.85
Clean Sheet
25%
4.02
39%
2.56
Win to Nil
6%
15.83
18%
5.41
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 9.7 | 13.5 | 9.4 | 4.4 | 1.5 | 0.4 |
| 1 | 9.1 | 12.7 | 8.8 | 4.1 | 1.4 | 0.4 |
| 2 | 4.3 | 6.0 | 4.2 | 1.9 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 1.3 | 1.9 | 1.3 | 0.6 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.3 | 0.4 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Al-Fayha vs Al-Ahli Jeddah Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for Al-Fayha vs Al-Ahli Jeddah?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.4%.
How many goals are Al-Fayha and Al-Ahli Jeddah expected to score?
The model projects 0.94 expected goals for Al-Fayha and 1.39 for Al-Ahli Jeddah, a combined total of 2.33.
How confident is the prediction model for Al-Fayha vs Al-Ahli Jeddah?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 47%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Al-Fayha's recent record stands at 17W 18D 26L from 61 games, a 1.13 PPG return, with D-L-W-W-L in the last five.
Al-Ahli Jeddah, meanwhile, have gone 41W 9D 11L across 61 games — 2.16 PPG, with W-W-W-L-W in their last five.
The points-per-game comparison favours Al-Ahli Jeddah by 1.03 — a real, if not enormous, edge over Al-Fayha heading into this one.
Home Ground vs the Road
At home specifically, Al-Fayha have managed 10W 11D 9L from their last 30 home games — 1.37 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Al-Ahli Jeddah's away record stands at 19W 3D 8L across their last 30 away games, a 2.00 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Al-Ahli Jeddah come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
Al-Fayha are averaging 1.00 goals scored and 1.49 conceded per game recently; Al-Ahli Jeddah are on 2.02 scored and 0.90 conceded.
Defensively: Al-Ahli Jeddah in 46% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 61 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Al-Fayha
Blended
Al-Ahli Jeddah
Blended
Al-Fayha (Home) vs Al-Ahli Jeddah (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
Al-Fayha
Blended
Al-Ahli Jeddah
Blended
❓ Al-Fayha vs Al-Ahli Jeddah Form FAQs
What form are Al-Fayha and Al-Ahli Jeddah in coming into this match?
Al-Fayha have gone 17W 18D 26L in their last 61 games (1.13 PPG), while Al-Ahli Jeddah have gone 41W 9D 11L in their last 61 (2.16 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Al-Fayha at home or Al-Ahli Jeddah away?
Al-Ahli Jeddah's away record (2.00 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Al-Fayha at home: 1.37 PPG; Al-Ahli Jeddah away: 2.00 PPG.
Have Al-Fayha or Al-Ahli Jeddah been keeping clean sheets recently?
Al-Fayha have kept a clean sheet in 28% of their recent games, Al-Ahli Jeddah in 46%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The head-to-head numbers here are drawn from the 9 H2H matches in our data, going back to September 2021. All of them came in Pro League. The most recent was as recently as 19 October 2026, so it is a fresh reference point.
Digging Into the Numbers
The biggest gap in our H2H data came on 18 Apr 2025, when Al-Ahli Jeddah won Al-Ahli Jeddah 5-0 Al-Fayha.
Al-Fayha's record when hosting Al-Ahli Jeddah specifically: 1W 1D 3L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 9 Meetings
1
Al-Fayha
2
Draws
6
Al-Ahli Jeddah
Recent Meetings
❓ Al-Fayha vs Al-Ahli Jeddah H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between Al-Fayha and Al-Ahli Jeddah?
Across the 9 head-to-head matches in our data, Al-Fayha have won 1, Al-Ahli Jeddah have won 6, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Al-Fayha and Al-Ahli Jeddah last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 19 October 2026: Al-Fayha 2-3 Al-Ahli Jeddah.
Who has won more matches between Al-Fayha and Al-Ahli Jeddah?
Al-Ahli Jeddah have the better head-to-head record, with 6 wins from the 9 head-to-head matches in our data.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Al-Fayha are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 63% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 27% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 38% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 30% of those situations.
Al-Ahli Jeddah see a goal before the break in 57% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 40% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 17% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 25% of those situations.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Al-Fayha 40%, Al-Ahli Jeddah 33% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Low-scoring games have been more typical here — Over 2.5 sits at just 30% for Al-Fayha and 37% for Al-Ahli Jeddah.
On the defensive side: Al-Fayha keep a clean sheet in 40% of their matches; Al-Ahli Jeddah in 53%; Al-Fayha have failed to score in 37% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Al-Fayha home games / Al-Ahli Jeddah away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Al-Fayha vs Al-Ahli Jeddah Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in Al-Fayha and Al-Ahli Jeddah matches?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 40% of Al-Fayha's recent matches and 33% of Al-Ahli Jeddah's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Are Al-Fayha and Al-Ahli Jeddah matches usually high-scoring?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 30% of Al-Fayha's recent games and 37% of Al-Ahli Jeddah's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Al-Fayha and Al-Ahli Jeddah matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 63% of Al-Fayha's recent matches and 57% of Al-Ahli Jeddah's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Al-Fayha and Al-Ahli Jeddah share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at King Abdullah Sports City Stadium, Regular Season - 29, as Al-Fayha and Al-Ahli Jeddah drew 1-1 in the Pro League. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Al-Fayha 0.94 xG and Al-Ahli Jeddah 1.39 xG, a combined 2.33. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Al-Fayha attack 0.88 / defence 0.91 against Al-Ahli Jeddah attack 1.09 / defence 0.69, drawn from 61/61 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Al-Fayha 25% | Draw 27% | Al-Ahli Jeddah 47%, with Al-Ahli Jeddah to win its most likely call at 47%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 27%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 41%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 68% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 46% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 48% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Al-Fayha 46%, Al-Ahli Jeddah 51%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 45%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Al-Fayha's trading profile (61 games, 30 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 43% of their matches — today it did.
Al-Ahli Jeddah's trading profile (61 games, 30 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 48% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 46% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
On form, Al-Ahli Jeddah arrived the stronger side — 2.16 PPG against 1.13. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss), form (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.