Al-Fateh 2-1 Damac – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Damac at 45% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Al-Fateh vs Damac encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Pro League encounter, Regular Season - 16 sees Damac travel to Al Fateh Club Stadium to take on Al-Fateh. The game is scheduled for Wednesday 22 January 2025, 14:55 UTC.
Form Guide
Al-Fateh — All Games: 0W 3D 7L from 10 Pro League outings this season, averaging 0.30 points per game. Last five: L L D L L. They are averaging 0.80 goals per game and conceding 2.50 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. However, 2.50 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Al-Fateh, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Al-Fateh at Al Fateh Club Stadium this season: 2W 3D 5L from 10 home games — 0.90 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.30 goals scored and 1.70 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 90% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture. Their home PPG of 0.90 is noticeably stronger than their overall 0.30 — Al-Fateh are significantly better at Al Fateh Club Stadium than their overall form suggests.
Across all Pro League games this season, Damac have recorded 4W 3D 3L from 10 outings — 1.50 PPG. Last five: W L D W L. They are scoring at 1.50 per game and conceding 1.60. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Damac, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Damac's away record: 2W 1D 7L from 10 road trips in Pro League this season (0.70 PPG). Away from home they average 1.20 goals scored and 2.20 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context. Their away PPG of 0.70 is notably below their overall 1.50 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
The form data does not support a straightforward home bias here. Damac are 1.20 PPG ahead (1.50 vs 0.30), making them the form-guided selection despite the trip.
The BTTS market is worth targeting here. Al-Fateh register both teams scoring in 90% of relevant matches, Damac in 60% (using home/away splits) — both sides above the 60% threshold gives BTTS Yes firm statistical grounding.
H2H
The rivalry is an even one: 1 wins apiece for Al-Fateh, 1 for Damac and 4 shared spoils from 6 past contests. Neither side holds a meaningful historical edge.
Goals have been a feature of this fixture. The last 6 meetings have averaged 4.2 per game — a rate that gives the Over 2.5 market a solid historical foundation. The most recent clash, on 23 Feb 2024, ended 1–1 with a draw.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 4.2 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
In-Play Profile
Al-Fateh in-play tendencies (49 games, 24 at home): they score before half-time in 75% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 91% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 54% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 71% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 58% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 39%.
Damac in-play tendencies (49 games, 24 at away): they score before half-time in 67% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 79% of the time; BTTS occurs in 58% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 37%.
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Al-Fateh 74% and Damac 57% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Al-Fateh 65% | Damac 51%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Al-Fateh 1.34 xG and Damac 1.64 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Al-Fateh attack 0.870 / defence 1.170 | Damac attack 0.974 / defence 1.081. League average goals — home 1.423 / away 1.443. Data: 49 Al-Fateh games / 49 Damac games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Al-Fateh 31% | Draw 24% | Damac 45%. Fair-value odds: Al-Fateh 3.23 | Draw 4.17 | Damac 2.22. Damac hold a narrow Poisson edge at 45% — the draw (24%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 57% | BTTS probability 60% | Total xG 2.98. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 57% — the 2.98 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 60% reflects that both xG figures (1.34 / 1.64) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Damac as the most likely outcome at 45% — moderate model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 24% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Damac offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 31% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 2.98 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 57% — strong confidence, supported by form averaging 3.2 goals per game and H2H averaging 4.2 goals per meeting.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 60% on Yes. Form rates corroborate: Al-Fateh 90% | Damac 60% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 31% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Al-Fateh vs Damac | Competition: Pro League, Regular Season - 16 | Venue: Al Fateh Club Stadium • Kick-off: Wednesday 22 Jan 2025, 14:55 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Al-Fateh 31% | Draw 24% | Damac 45% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 57% | BTTS 60% | xG Al-Fateh 1.34 / Damac 1.64 • Poisson strength factors: Al-Fateh attack 0.870 / def 1.170 | Damac attack 0.974 / def 1.081 | league avg home 1.423 / away 1.443 • Poisson stance: Damac (45%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.34
Al-Fateh xG
Expected Goals
1.64
Damac xG
60%
BTTS
80%
Over 1.5
57%
Over 2.5
35%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Al-Fateh vs Damac kick off?
Al-Fateh vs Damac kicked off at 14:55 on Wednesday 22 January 2025 at Al Fateh Club Stadium.
What was the final score in Al-Fateh vs Damac?
Al-Fateh 2 - 1 Damac.
Where is Al-Fateh vs Damac being played?
The match is being played at Al Fateh Club Stadium.
What competition is Al-Fateh vs Damac part of?
Al-Fateh vs Damac is a Regular Season - 16 fixture in the Pro League (Saudi-Arabia).
Who is favourite to win Al-Fateh vs Damac?
Our statistical model gives Al-Fateh a 31% chance of winning, Damac a 45% chance, and a 24% chance of a draw — making Damac the favourite.
Will both teams score in Al-Fateh vs Damac?
Our model estimates a 60% probability that both Al-Fateh and Damac will score (BTTS).
Will Al-Fateh vs Damac have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 57%.
What is the head-to-head record between Al-Fateh and Damac?
Record (6 meetings): Al-Fateh 1W | Draws 4 | Damac 1W.
What form are Al-Fateh and Damac in?
Al-Fateh (all comps): 0W-3D-7L in 10 | 0.30 PPG | GF 0.80 / GA 2.50 | L5 L-L-D-L-L. Damac (all comps): 4W-3D-3L in 10 | 1.50 PPG | GF 1.50 / GA 1.60 | L5 W-L-D-W-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Al-Fateh's attacking strength (0.87x league average) is weighed against Damac's defensive record (1.08x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.34. The same calculation in reverse, Damac's attack versus Al-Fateh's defence, projects 1.64 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 49/49 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 12.6%. Close behind: 1-2 (9.2%), 2-1 (7.5%). Together the top three scorelines make up 29% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Damac Win
31%
3.20
24%
4.15
45%
2.24
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.2%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 2
9.2%
Away win
0 – 1
8.3%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.34
Al-Fateh xG
Total xG
2.98
1.64
Damac xG
3.20
31%
Home win
4.15
24%
Draw
2.24
45%
Away win
Goals Markets
80%
Over 1.5
1.25
20%
Under 1.5
5.00
57%
Over 2.5
1.75
43%
Under 2.5
2.33
35%
Over 3.5
2.86
65%
Under 3.5
1.54
18%
Over 4.5
5.56
82%
Under 4.5
1.22
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
60%
BTTS Yes
1.68
40%
BTTS No
2.47
Clean Sheet
19%
5.17
26%
3.82
Win to Nil
6%
16.54
12%
8.54
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.1 | 8.3 | 6.8 | 3.7 | 1.5 | 0.5 |
| 1 | 6.8 | 11.2 | 9.2 | 5.0 | 2.1 | 0.7 |
| 2 | 4.5 | 7.5 | 6.1 | 3.4 | 1.4 | 0.5 |
| 3 | 2.0 | 3.3 | 2.7 | 1.5 | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 0.7 | 1.1 | 0.9 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Al-Fateh vs Damac?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.6%.
How many goals are Al-Fateh and Damac expected to score?
The model projects 1.34 expected goals for Al-Fateh and 1.64 for Damac, a combined total of 2.98.
How confident is the prediction model for Al-Fateh vs Damac?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 45%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Al-Fateh come into this having played 49 games, going 13W 12D 24L for 1.04 points per game. Their last five reads L-L-D-L-L. The sample for Al-Fateh is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Damac sit at 1.20 PPG from 49 outings (15W 14D 20L), a run that reads W-L-D-W-L across their last five. The sample for Damac is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: Al-Fateh on 1.04 PPG, Damac on 1.20. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
Al-Fateh's home form reads 7W 6D 11L across 24 games on their own ground, a 1.12 PPG return.
Away from home, Damac have taken 0.96 points per game from 24 outings (6W 5D 13L).
The Goals Picture
Al-Fateh are averaging 1.41 goals scored and 1.84 conceded per game recently; Damac are on 1.35 scored and 1.45 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Al-Fateh have seen both teams score in 73% of their recent games.
Last 49 Results — Pro League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Al-Fateh
Blended
Damac
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Al-Fateh and Damac in coming into this match?
Al-Fateh have gone 13W 12D 24L in their last 49 games (1.04 PPG), while Damac have gone 15W 14D 20L in their last 49 (1.20 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Al-Fateh at home or Damac away?
Al-Fateh's home record (1.12 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Al-Fateh at home: 1.12 PPG; Damac away: 0.96 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Al-Fateh and Damac runs to 10 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to November 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Pro League. They last met on 26 February 2026, roughly 6 months ago.
Digging Into the Numbers
The last 2 meetings have all been drawn — an unusually settled recent run for this fixture.
The biggest gap between the sides came on 29 May 2022, when Al-Fateh won 0-3 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Al-Fateh's record when hosting Damac specifically: 1W 4D 0L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
3
Al-Fateh
6
Draws
1
Damac
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Al-Fateh and Damac?
From 10 meetings on record, Al-Fateh have won 3, Damac have won 1, and 6 have been drawn.
When did Al-Fateh and Damac last play each other?
They last met on 26 February 2026, when Al-Fateh 1-1 Damac.
Who has won more matches between Al-Fateh and Damac?
Al-Fateh have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Al-Fateh are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 75% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 29% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 17% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
Damac are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 67% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 29% of the time.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Al-Fateh 71%, Damac 58% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 58% (Al-Fateh) and 50% (Damac).
On the defensive side: Damac in 29%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Al-Fateh home games / Damac away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Al-Fateh play Damac?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 71% of Al-Fateh's games and 58% of Damac's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Al-Fateh vs Damac usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 58% of Al-Fateh's recent games and 50% of Damac's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Al-Fateh and Damac tend to score early?
Al-Fateh have had a goal before half-time in 75% of their recent matches, Damac in 67% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as Al-Fateh defy the odds to beat Damac 2-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Al-Fateh beat Damac 2-1 at Al Fateh Club Stadium, Regular Season - 16, in the Pro League. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Al-Fateh 1.34 xG and Damac 1.64 xG, a combined 2.98. The scoreboard read 2-1 for 3 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Al-Fateh attack 0.87 / defence 1.17 against Damac attack 0.97 / defence 1.08, drawn from 49/49 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Al-Fateh 31% | Draw 24% | Damac 45%, with Damac to win its most likely call at 45%. The actual Al-Fateh win had been the model's second-ranked read at 31%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 57%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 80% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 60% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 58% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Al-Fateh 65%, Damac 51%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 65%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Al-Fateh's trading profile (49 games, 24 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 74% of their matches — today it did.
Damac's trading profile (49 games, 24 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 57% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Al-Fateh 1.04 PPG, Damac 1.20 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Al-Fateh win broke the near-deadlock.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.